Hello: Josh Metellus

Submitted by Ace on June 17th, 2015 at 6:04 PM


Photo via 247

In what could be a sign of things to come, Pembroke Pines (FL) Flanagan S Josh Metellus announced his commitment to Michigan this afternoon on Twitter. Metellus visited Ann Arbor last weekend with teammates Devin Bush Jr. and Devin Gil, both of whom have Michigan at or near the top of their lists. Metellus is the 16th commit in the 2016 class, the first at safety, and the second to announce today, following Ben Bredeson.

GURU RATINGS

Scout Rivals ESPN 247 247 Comp
2* S 2* S NR S NR S 2*, #145 S

Scout and Rivals have each thrown two stars Metellus' way, but neither site even had an article posted to his profile prior to his commitment. Metellus earned his offer at Michigan's satellite camp hosted by Flanagan, so this is another instance of the coaches seeing a prospect in person who hasn't yet received much attention from the recruiting services.

Metellus is listed at 6'0", 185-187 pounds on every site save ESPN, which is a distinct outlier at 5'10", 170. He looks closer to the general consensus on tape.

SCOUTING

This might be a first: there isn't a single evaluation on any of the sites. Highlight film goes here, then:

Metellus looks like a good athlete, enthusiastic tackler, and potential weapon as a punt gunner. Most of the pass defense highlights occurred on poorly thrown balls, so I won't attempt further analysis on four minutes worth of junior film. Perhaps more than with any other commit in the class, this is a situation where until there's more to go on, you either trust Jim Harbaugh's judgment or you don't.

OFFERS

Metellus was a Georgia Southern commit before visiting last weekend, when he and Gil both decommitted from other programs (Miami, in Gil's case). His other offers are from FIU, Miami (OH), Midd. Tennessee State, and South Alabama.

HIGH SCHOOL

Flanagan's history of producing Division I prospects is relatively short and undistinguished until the present. Bush, Gil, and Metellus have obviously all earned Michigan offers; 2017 CB Stanford Samuels is a potential five-star. This is a pretty good time to develop a strong connection to the school, which Michigan has accomplished with the satellite camp.

STATS

None posted that I could find.

FAKE 40 TIME

None available. 

PREDICTION BASED ON FLIMSY EVIDENCE

He will probably play safety?

UPSHOT FOR THE REST OF THE CLASS

The big impact here is the potential that Metellus' teammates will join him in Ann Arbor, which appears to be a distinct possibility. Metellus also fills a need at safety, and Michigan should be all set there with either ATH Kiante Enis or, potentially, Gil.

Comments

GotBlueOnMyMind

June 17th, 2015 at 6:17 PM ^

We know one thing from that tape: dude lays the lumber on his hits. Also, for those more knowledgeable, how is that tape any different from generic to high three star guys? Metellus looks good to me (someone who doesn't know much)

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Magnus

June 17th, 2015 at 6:45 PM ^

I think what you're seeing is a kid who is pretty undersized for an ideal safety who also doesn't have any wow athleticism, such as snagging jump balls, chasing guys down, returning punts for touchdowns, etc. You still see those high 3-star guys doing that, but Metellus's best trait is exactly what you said - he'll hit people. That's great and all, but it doesn't really point to a standout player at the next level.

IncrediblySTIFF

June 17th, 2015 at 6:56 PM ^

I'm a little uncomfortable with the over-signing clouds.... I'm sure things will "work themselves out" but right now if this were Tom Cream or Ohio state I would be talking so much shit

Sopwith

June 17th, 2015 at 8:07 PM ^

This might be the topic of it's own post in the coming days, but Mike Spath at Rivals had an editorial that raised some legit things to think about. Basically, he mentioned that while at Stanford, JH used a strategy of filling up the class early but continuing to "evaluate" players throughout and making room for hotter prospects if they wanted in by coming to a mutual understanding with the less-hot prospect that they should look for other opportunities.

In 2010, Stanford had 18 decommittments in recruiting class. Yikes. Many of them surely did what recruits do and just changed their minds. But some maybe... didn't? Doubt we'll get that many de-coms, but at some point we may have to re-calibrate our high-mindedness about recruiting strategy and oversigning, etc.

Until it actually happens, though... meh. Let's wait and see. Deep down, I can't imagine JH would risk the PR nightmare that could ensue by yanking an offer to a kid who really wants to be here just to open up a spot for a higher-rated kid. Plus, I just don't think that's how the guy rolls.

 

 

 

Sopwith

June 17th, 2015 at 8:50 PM ^

and the article considered it, but if memory serves a commit who signs on Signing Day doesn't necessarily find out if he's accepted into school until later in the spring with the other students. I seem to remember Demar Dorsey didn't find out until well after signing day, but who knows, maybe Stanford has a different process?

Here's the link if you have a Rivals subscription

https://michigan.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=1775030&PT=4&PR=2

Here's the most pertinent quote, might throw this up on the board for discussion if we really get into a numbers issue soon:

 

At Stanford, The Cardinal produced a slew of decommitments during Harbaugh's tenure (18 alone in 2010), and we've been told that when Harbaugh accepts a commitment, it is often the early stages of the vetting process, and that over the next few months both coaching staff and recruit could come to the conclusion it is not the right fit. If such were to happen at Michigan, fans would have to ask themselves if they are OK with a recruiting strategy in which players are recruited and offered a scholarship but ultimately told prior to Signing Day that it would be best for all involved to part ways. Stanford's elite admissions turned away a few prospects, and one could argue it was the school not Harbaugh that had final say, but a staff should have a pretty good feel from the onset which players have the grades to be admitted and those that do not. At Stanford, Harbaugh was willing to accept pledges from an abundance of borderline prospects.

So.... I don't know man. Benefit of the doubt? Benefit of the doubt.

Mr Miggle

June 17th, 2015 at 9:00 PM ^

His was an exceptional case. He wasn't accepted here, or anywhere else, after it was discovered that his online HS was fraudulent.

There are some borderline students who may not know if they'll get accepted by LOI day. Michigan usually doesn't pursue those players.

bronxblue

June 17th, 2015 at 10:32 PM ^

It's an interesting situation. I'd have to go back and look at the decommitment list to see what happened. I do wonder how common this is elsewhere. You hear about kids getting non commitable offers from other schools, so I'd like to know if the offers at Stanford were those or just kids didn't qualify. I will say that Harbaugh never seemed to be in trouble with roster composition at Stanford, and sometimes kids accept an offer somewhere but don't expect it to stick because they are looking elsewhere. But it is an issue to consider.

M-Dog

June 18th, 2015 at 9:10 AM ^

A noncommittable offer should be up front . . . we are interested in you, but we are still evaluating.  The kid knows not to commit in public to a "maybe" offer.

What you don't want to do is to make a kid humiliate himself in public by accepting an offer that you know in advance you may revoke.  

Harbaugh being Harbaugh is going to keep recruiting talent and let it compete on the field.  He's not going to promise you that he won't recruit anybody else for your position.  

This may indeed scare some kids off when a new talented recruit commits for "their" spot.  But I would hope that Harbaugh would honor all the commits that do want to come.

 

Mr Miggle

June 18th, 2015 at 9:47 AM ^

I'll take issue with the second.

If we're talking about an under the radar kid, a lot of good can from taking an offer as you describe. He'll greatly raise his recruiting profile and likely garner more offers as a result. He might well end up sticking with the school, a possibility that's much less likely if he doesn't take it. There's not much potential for embarrassment that I can see. He can decommit to stay closer to home, etc.

If we're talking about a kid with offers to somewhat comparable schools, that's a bit different. They may be risking more, but there's nothing to keep them from still looking around. They might find an offer they like better or can use as leverage. As long as the staff is upfront when they accept the commitment, the recruit can make an informed choice.

 

Muttley

June 18th, 2015 at 1:29 AM ^

That would be a real dick move to pull as a surprise to a kid in January (or especially February).

But if a verbal commit knows he may get crowded out (and is given the blessing to continue looking around), AND if and when that mutual understanding for the departure happens THERE IS PLENTY OF TIME LEFT FOR THE COMMIT, then it wouldn't be as harmful.

dragonchild

June 18th, 2015 at 8:49 AM ^

I don't believe in benefit of the doubt as a principle, but in this case, I don't feel the benefit is needed because I don't feel doubt.  From what I've heard, his process is open & transparent.  He recruits aggressively, builds up a pecking order, and tells the recruits where they stand.  These guys know they might get their offers pulled, but. . . well, they know, and take that chance.  The early commitments are in their mutual best interest.  Harbaugh identifies his Plan Bs early on, and if 5-star guy commits elsewhere, the 2-star guy has a Michigan scholarship he wouldn't have otherwise.

The alternative is going after the 5-stars, striking out and then making a last-gasp effort to fill the holes in the depth chart.

I think it's understandable if people have issues with how Harbaugh runs things, but the one thing it isn't is some sort of secret in an attempt to screw over the recruits.

M-Dog

June 18th, 2015 at 9:17 AM ^

These guys know they might get their offers pulled

Do we actually know that offers will get pulled?

I hope to hell that Harbaugh would not humiliate a kid by having him commit in public and then pull the rug out from under him later.

It's one thing if a kid decides that the situation is getting more competitive and he may not get the playing time he once thought and decides to decommit, but it's another thing if that decision is forced on him.  

If a kid commits to you and he wants to come no matter who else you have recruited, then you need to honor that committment.

 

dragonchild

June 18th, 2015 at 12:03 PM ^

Word I heard is that Harbaugh is handing out noncommittable offers like crazy.  But at least being up front about it.

The commitment itself isn't inherently dangerous for the recruit until after NSD, and that's only if Harbaugh is yet another oversigning dick -- which I hope he isn't.  Again, a lot of these camp offers are under-the-radar guys.  Coaches are shameless about poaching committed prospects, so if Harbaugh gives you even a noncommittable offer then it's a great way to get on everyone else's radar.

Again, I perfectly understand if people don't like how this is done, but I don't get the feeling there are any deliberately concealed pieces.  The process seems complete and straightforward, even if it can be cruel.

M-Dog

June 18th, 2015 at 11:42 PM ^

That's an interesting take.  Do kids publically commit to non-committable offers?

I thought a non-committable offer came with the message from the coaches that they are interested in you but they are still evaluating players, and that the offer is not committable at the current time . . . i.e. don't publically commit to it, it's not committable yet.

Do some kids commit anyway?  Are some of our 2/3 star commits jumping the gun and publically committing to non-committable offers?  I did not think this was the case.