Hoops Preview: 2018-19 Wisconsin Part Two
THE ESSENTIALS
WHAT | #6 Michigan (21-2) vs #11 Wisconsin (17-6) |
---|---|
WHERE | Crisler Arena Ann Arbor, MI |
WHEN | Noon Saturday |
LINE | Michigan –5, 68% to win (Kenpom) Michigan –6.8, 79% to win (Torvik) |
TV | FOX |
THE US
Michigan was able to hold a Rutgers team that's officially "pesky" at arm's length in their last outing. At virtually the same time Michigan State provided a welcome batch of perspective by losing to Illinois. Also a welcome opening of the conference race, which Kenpom now projects as a three-way tie between the two Michigan schools and resurgent Purdue.
The Boilers have cleared the brutal part of its schedule and now settle in for a home stretch with just one top-20 game, that at Maryland. Michigan, on the other hand, has five top-20 opponents in their final eight games. A return date against Wisconsin is first up, and probably mandatory if Michigan wants to keep pace.
THE LINEUP CARD
Click for big.
Projected starters are in bold. Hover over headers for stat explanations. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open. It's a free country.
Pos. | # | Name | Yr. | Ht./Wt. | %Min | %Poss | ORtg | SIBMIHHAT | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
G | 0 | D'Mitrik Trice | So. | 6'0, 187 | 81 | 22 | 110 | No | |||||||||||
Still just a shooter who never gets to the rim. 42/45 shooting splits. | |||||||||||||||||||
G | 34 | Brad Davison | So. | 6'3, 206 | 78 | 18 | 113 | No | |||||||||||
Grayson Allen if he looked like the illicit son of R Lee Emery and Matt Damon. | |||||||||||||||||||
F | 21 | Khalil Iverson | Sr. | 6'5, 217 | 53 | 14 | 101 | God yes | |||||||||||
Burlywing played only 9 minutes in first game. Dunks on others assists for most of points. | |||||||||||||||||||
F | 35 | Nate Reuvers | So. | 6'11 240 | 53 | 20 | 114 | No | |||||||||||
Heir apparent at C spends most of his time as stretch 4. Top 50 block rate, 60/39% splits, rock bottom TO rate. | |||||||||||||||||||
C | 22 | Ethan Happ | Sr. | 6'10, 237 | 79 | 35 | 109 | Yes | |||||||||||
Unique point-center has top 50 assist rate, giant usage, good efficiency, and a major achilles heel: 47% on FTs. Not super athletic and can get eaten up by bigger, jumpier Cs. | |||||||||||||||||||
G | 23 | Kobe King | Fr.* | 6'4 203 | 49 | 11 | 116 | No | |||||||||||
31 mins in first game, hit 2/2 from three and 0/2 from two. Will get to rack a little but usage is rock bottom. | |||||||||||||||||||
G | 1 | Brevin Pritzl | Jr. | 6'3, 198 | 48 | 11 | 129 | No | |||||||||||
Just A Shooter, hitting 40%, 50% in Big Ten play but on just 26 attempts. | |||||||||||||||||||
F | 2 | Aleem Ford | So. | 6'8, 220 | 32 | 15 | 89 | Sorta | |||||||||||
Just A Shooter, horrible (21%) from three in Big Ten play. Naturally hit 2/3 in first game. | |||||||||||||||||||
F | 15 | Charles Thomas | Sr. | 6'8, 250 | 12 | 26 | 104 | Maybe | |||||||||||
Bit player gets a few minutes here and there. |
[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]
THE THEM
[Barron]
As with previous rematch editions of these posts, this is the same team Michigan played earlier this year: Ethan Happ is #2 in the KPOY race with giant usage and a similarly giant assist rate. Wisconsin surrounds him with guys who do little other than shoot on offense and play that uniquely frustrating brand of flop-tastic Wisconsin defense with various people who should be shot into the sun. The previous post's The Them section is still on point.
The usual errata:
- Happ's FT% has dropped another couple points to 47%.
- D'Mitrik Trice is 12/29 from three over his last six, a bounce-back from a meh stretch leading up to the Michigan game. He's now 29/86 (34%) since cooling off from his torrid start. Scouting report is out.
- Khalil Iverson has added one more consecutive missed three to his current streak, which now sits at 28.
- Brad Davison added another embed to the growing pile of evidence he's garbage.
Anyone catch Brad Davison's attempt at taking out Jordan Murphy? #Gophers @NadineBabu @GopherHole pic.twitter.com/xlbE7H6jxE
— Andy Habhegger (@Habby831) February 7, 2019
In non-errata news, Wisconsin elected to cover Ignas Brazdeikis with Ethan Happ for much of the game in the Trohl Center and this worked better than their wildest dreams: Iggy put up a goose egg and Reuvers, a better defender, was able to help gum up Michigan's pick and roll game, as Alex detailed. Michigan will no doubt have better ways for Iggy to attack whichever 5 Wisconsin decides to put on him.
THE TEMPO-FREE
Since the last matchup Wisconsin's offense has become a slightly more extreme version of itself, moving from 19th to 9th in 3P%, sliding up a slot to third in TO rate, and getting marginally worse at already 300+ offensive rebounding and FTA/FGA rankings. It is now even more of a Typical Beilein/Wisconsin offense, at least by statistical shape, than it was before. (A team that generates most of its shots off post-ups is obviously not a Beilein offense stylistically.)
It remains imperative to limit Wisconsin's attempts from behind the arc, where they hit 40%; inside they're just 145th nationally. Wisconsin doesn't get a lot of shots off from deep—they're 262nd—despite the fact that their two guards will take and hit unassisted threes.
You will be aware of Wisconsin's defensive style: sag off everything inside the line, give you a bunch of midrange two looks, floppity flop flop flop. Reuvers has been a giant difference-maker for them. More or less the same crew of guys was 203rd in defending twos a year ago as Reuvers pupated with just over 10 MPG. Now he's out there most of the time and Wisconsin is 12th.
THE KEYS
Defense like you generally do. Michigan's defense was fine against the Badgers, who had 57 points on 63 possessions until the late garbage with the Brazdeikis no-call-and-then-flagrant followed by some goofy meaningless stuff that pushed the final margin from four to ten. Happ was 12/22 from the floor on mostly tough shots; Trice did nothing; there's not a whole lot you can do that will slide your expected PPP much lower against what is a top 30 Kenpom offense.
Doubling off Iverson is nice in theory but he only got nine minutes in the last game; everyone else on the roster except Aleem Ford (28%) is shooting 40%+ from three. Just live with Happ putting up shots against Teske and win by scoring a PPP.
Consider Hack-a-Happ, though. A 47% FT shooter shooting a one-and-one has an expected return of 0.69 PPP, so you should probably do it during the window that's possible. Would take a few minutes of pressure off of Teske.
[Barron]
Iggy. Obviously. Zero points at the Trohl Center. Will be covered by a 5. Just lit up Rutgers with a bunch of 1-4 pick and roll against a 240-pound paint-bound power forward. Michigan must flip that defensive matchup into an advantage.
In other pick and roll news, the drop coverage Wisconsin runs incessantly is vulnerable to off the dribble threes, so Poole PNR is another option.
Midrange twos. Wisconsin forces a ton into the midrange (26th nationally) and those shots don't go down (25th), which is an ugly ugly matchup for a Michigan team that takes too many midrange shots and converts just 31% of them. Michigan was 5/19 on other twos in the first game, with Poole hitting 3/8 and nobody else approaching acceptable conversion levels.
Michigan is inevitably going to be forced into a fair number of two point jumpers, and then it's just about making some of them.
[Barron]
Dad Bravison calls. The strangest thing about Brad Davison's emergence into the league's Scumbag Steve is the impact it's had on charge calls leaguewide. You can't flip on a Big Ten game these days without seeing an obvious legitimate charge ignored. It's clear that there's been a leaguewide memo about flops… that does not seem to apply to Wisconsin, which didn't commit a foul of any sort in the first half against Minnesota.
At least they did get called for various flops in the second half? I dunno. But neither team can really afford foul trouble. These games almost never feature any; in the current environment it might be more dangerous to try to take a charge than drive the lane.
THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES
Michigan by 5.
February 8th, 2019 at 1:18 PM ^
Biggest key for this game that we didn’t take advantage of in the first game, get points and turnovers while Happ is on the bench. Happ with score 10+, he is just a pretty good player that will get his, if the Poole and Matthews that played against Rutgers show up, we win. If hero ball Matthews and jittery Poole show up, not gonna be a fun Saturday. I’m confident that the former occurs and we avenge that loss.
February 8th, 2019 at 1:37 PM ^
I think the biggest key is Iggy. If he had scored his average in the first game, we win. He hit a goose egg and we lost.
He needs to find his shot early and often.
February 9th, 2019 at 10:42 AM ^
I wonder if he’ll pull up on would-be slashes and take more midrange twos in this game. If the Badgers plan to sit back and play for flops when it looks like he’s driving, and their defense offers the two, he’s probably the best hope of making those right now.
With a lot of high-profile freshmen, I’d worry about them pressing, in an attempt to emphatically erase that earlier game goose egg. I worry less about that here.
February 8th, 2019 at 1:23 PM ^
If Murphy had actually been injured on that as Davison had attempted I wonder if the conference would have suspended him.
February 8th, 2019 at 1:48 PM ^
I wondered if they'd suspend him even though he "missed." Gotta think they would have if Murphy had gone down.
February 8th, 2019 at 5:23 PM ^
I'm sure either not a peep will come of it or he'll be suspended for a game against Penn State. Or their next one, MSU, because that's just our luck that they'd take a while to "review it."
February 8th, 2019 at 1:24 PM ^
Man I love the team graphic, both for football and basketball. Great, great work on that Seth
February 8th, 2019 at 3:05 PM ^
Agree. But I don't think we should crown Happ just yet. :)
February 8th, 2019 at 6:20 PM ^
Maybe he'll get his crown in a year or two
February 8th, 2019 at 1:33 PM ^
Grayson Allen if he looked like the illicit son of R Lee Emery and Matt Damon
Amazing.
February 8th, 2019 at 1:34 PM ^
Good god we better win this fucking game
February 8th, 2019 at 2:26 PM ^
I don't want to live in a world where we lost to Wisconsin twice in the same season.
(Yes, I know it's happened before. I didn't want to live in that world either)
Also, as Brian said, lose this and the B1G title becomes much less likely.
February 8th, 2019 at 1:35 PM ^
Sorry, Brian, but I expect to be mad if Brad Davison hits a three. Actually, I expect to be mad if he plays, and then mad if he does anything successfully.
Wisconsin should have suspended him, and since they didn't, the Big Ten should have.
February 8th, 2019 at 1:38 PM ^
What does that hat mean? Did I miss it in the key? I'm assuming it means he's a douchebag.
February 8th, 2019 at 1:43 PM ^
It's the hat from the scumbag steve meme
February 8th, 2019 at 1:44 PM ^
It's an Internet meme.
February 8th, 2019 at 3:47 PM ^
Enlightened.
February 8th, 2019 at 1:38 PM ^
Another Key: Use Davis for Hack-A-Happ at the end of halves.
February 8th, 2019 at 1:50 PM ^
I think that was implied by using Hack-A-Happ for "a few minutes of pressure off Teske".
February 8th, 2019 at 8:03 PM ^
Plan B: bring a walk-on in the game and just have him deck Davis. Just for fun.
February 8th, 2019 at 1:52 PM ^
Win the game, yes, but also come out of this game without any injuries caused by Bag Davison.
February 8th, 2019 at 2:14 PM ^
Beat Brad Davison.
February 8th, 2019 at 2:15 PM ^
Wisc plays the ugliest ball I've seen,,,year after year.
Why would I play at wisc???? To learn to flop. Brutal watch.
But Go Blue, run them into the ground.
February 8th, 2019 at 2:23 PM ^
I expect a surlier than normal Zavier Simpson to show up tomorrow. And that bodes well for our chances.
February 8th, 2019 at 2:39 PM ^
Make Brad Davidson earn one of those flops.
February 8th, 2019 at 4:27 PM ^
Are you suggesting a cup check?
February 8th, 2019 at 2:44 PM ^
Scumbag Steve? On behalf of all the other Steves out there, let me just say, cumong man.
February 8th, 2019 at 3:41 PM ^
Do you prefer Snowflake Steve?
February 8th, 2019 at 3:05 PM ^
In 2013 Michigan started off 20-2 before finishing 4-4 over the last 8 regular season games, 1-1 in the BTT before making a run to the National Title vs Vacated. We're looking at a scarily similar situation lining up again here taking into account depth and upcoming schedule. If Michigan wins on Saturday, start up the 1-seed hype train!
February 8th, 2019 at 3:08 PM ^
The Brad Davis thing makes me more Angry after each time a view.
The dude simply deserves a physical ass kicking not just a full suspension. That bullshit could end a guy’s season and possibly even a career. I hope it went to the Big Ten office.
What a cocksucker. Actually that’s an insult to cocksuckers.
February 8th, 2019 at 3:49 PM ^
I'll just throw this in here:
I just stopped by a Wisconsin forum out of curiosity. I was actually surprised to see the number of Badger fans telling it like it is. Most saying that it was probably intentional and he needs to knock that crap off.
Of course, there are always some wearing the team blinders. But overall, this was a good look from the Wisconsin fans. Hopefully, that's the last nonsense we see from Davison.
https://247sports.com/college/wisconsin/Board/23/Contents/Did-he-or-didnt-he-128825895/
February 8th, 2019 at 5:10 PM ^
Thanks. I do.
February 8th, 2019 at 5:16 PM ^
Z should get the Gritty McGritstein lunchpail.
February 8th, 2019 at 3:17 PM ^
I'm hoping Iggy uses his previous performance against Wisconsin as motivation to go all out and smoke the Badgers tomorrow. And if he does, you can bet he'll get Freshman of the Week for the 5th time with how well he did against Rutgers.
February 8th, 2019 at 3:57 PM ^
I hope he doesn't press though. Nothing worse for your offense than trying too hard to get it. Let it come to you. Pick your spots. Take what the defense gives you.
February 8th, 2019 at 3:58 PM ^
Oh, fuck. I just saw from that picture of their starting line that Davison is only a sophomore. I have a feeling he will be yet another in a long line of white boy seniors. They seem to never want to leave Wisconsin early...that or they just are not good enough to be in the NBA.
February 8th, 2019 at 4:39 PM ^
Brad Davison is barely good enough to play in Europe, at least at this point in his career.
Maybe in WWE, I guess. Not basketball, though.
February 8th, 2019 at 5:44 PM ^
You may remember last year he had his shoulder in a sling/brace and he was a freshman.
February 8th, 2019 at 5:09 PM ^
Since our Bigs off the bench are, um, kind of useless, I'd have them hack away at Happ if calls are going against us in the paint ala @ Iowa.
F it, take what the refs are giving you.
February 8th, 2019 at 5:15 PM ^
Does the hat on Davison in the Line Up Card mean he is a Tool?
I see someone else says it is Scumbag Steve meme.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=705PDlsnbgs
Now I see already posted. Different link.
February 8th, 2019 at 5:39 PM ^
ya, fuck davidson. i blew out my knee by landing on a guys foot on a rebound. acl reconstruction and meniscus surgery. that ain't no joke.
February 8th, 2019 at 7:24 PM ^
I did not believe that Iverson has missed 28 straight threes. That had to be a typo. Because who misses 15 straight and then keeps on shooting 13 more?!
Well, not only has he missed 28 straight, he missed the two before his last 28 for a total of 30 straight missed threes going back to his Soph year!!!
0-24 last year. That has to be some kind of record for threes taken in a season without making one. My grandma could be blindfolded and make a three if given 24 chances. That is blowing my mind right now.
Of course, he's gonna hit one tomorrow.
February 9th, 2019 at 2:20 AM ^
The weird thing is that he was 6/23 before his "recent" "slump." He's now a cool 11.3% for his career from 3.
Even if you assume his true talent level is a 10% shooter, i's' still pretty impressive to miss 30 in a row. 96 times out of a hundred, you'd hit at least one just by chance. :)
February 8th, 2019 at 10:07 PM ^
Scumbag Steve symbol is brilliant. I have such a man crush on Brian.
February 9th, 2019 at 8:33 AM ^
Brad Davison can choke on a bag of dicks. I've got no respect for his game. He's trash and the program that supports that kind of play is trash. Fuck Wisconsin. Go Blue.
February 9th, 2019 at 8:33 AM ^
Michigan was able to hold a Rutgers team that's officially "pesky" at arm's length in their last outing.
I believe that’s spelled “Peske”.
February 9th, 2019 at 11:37 AM ^
Let's show 'em what time it is - go beat these punks!! GO BLUE!!
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