Assuming Patterson starts, a Harbaugh recruit will not have entered the season as a starter...after 5 years.
Gentry leaving got me thinking:
So far, Harbaugh has started (and we would all assume, next year plans on starting):
Rudock (Iowa transfer)
Speight (Borges recruit)
Patterson (Ole Miss transfer)
Also, his first QB off the bench in both 2016 and 2017 was O'Korn.
In the meantime, he personally has brought in 5 4* QBs...none who have played QB at any point other than as back-ups or garbage time.
Personally, I think each decision was defensible. Hoke/Borges were a disaster when it came to recruiting QBs, so wanting to bring in a few older guys (Rudock & O'Korn) to bolster the early years made sense. Also, having a former 5-star who was transferring not because he lost his job, but because of sanctions makes sense as well, especially after the Speight transfer and Peters' bowl performance.
However, I am starting to wonder if this has been a quick fix that trades short term success for long term success.
For instance, while I understand the need for Rudock in year one, if John O'Korn is not brought in, Brandon Peters is the back-up QB. How much quicker does he develop if that is the case? How much can you blame someone for being frustrated to be placed behind someone who, if we are being generous was...not good? Peters did not look bad behind an awful OL in 2017 and even played well against Wisconsin before being injured. His bowl performance was terrible, but I've heard he really didn't get full practice time beforehand and was probably not 100% coming off the injury.
Does someone like Gentry (https://mgoblog.com/content/hello-zach-gentry-updated) play QB? A 6'7" QB who can move? What does a QB battle of Speight, Gentry and Peters look like if the staff isn't forcing him to play TE?
And while Patterson was very good for most of the year...is he really ideal for the Harbaugh system? Don't the ideas of Peters, McCaffrey and Gentry fit more into the Harbaugh mold? Bigger QBs who can move (Luck, Smith, Kaepernick)? Once someone is the starter, they are often entrenched, so someone with more experience, such as Patterson is probably not relinquishing the job barring injury, thus setting back the other QBs who might be a better fit for Harbaugh's offense.
And how does it affect recruiting when none of your recruits actually...play?
I tried to do some research on how QB transfers affect programs, but there isn't much out there. I am curious to glean what the board thinks and if its unusual to go this long without one of your recruits starting at QB.
January 2nd, 2019 at 7:19 PM ^
https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=Picking%20the%20fly%20shit%20out%20of%20the%20pepper
Ha, I had never heard the phrase ‘pick the flyshit out of the pepper’. According to Urban Dictionary, it is ‘being nit-picky’.
I argue that ‘flyshit/pepper’ is even a better phrase than nit picky, b/c ‘flyshit/pepper’ gets at the sense that you are wasting your time rather than tossing out the whole pepper bottle (unless in Roman times when spices very valuable). While I’d always thought that the negative connotations of nit picky didn’t literally follow—as ‘nit Picking’ literally is a good thing—a parent lovingly combing out the nits from their kids’ lice infested hair that he got from day care from that Bryce kid.
(yes, i worked the holidays and today am off)
January 2nd, 2019 at 11:07 AM ^
Seriously. Who do people think got these QBs to transfer to Michigan? So what if they didn't come from high school. They were still recruited.
January 2nd, 2019 at 12:06 PM ^
How would bringing in transfers hinder the development of recruits? To me it would seem like the development of a recruit (time spent in the weight room and film room, the way they approach team meetings and practices, how much of their own time they spend on getting better) is largely up to the recruits themselves. To me, it would seem that bringing in transfers that are better than the current recruits would make the recruits push themselves harder and make them better. If they give up and give half assed efforts because a transfer was brought in is that the kind of kid Michigan really wants on the team?
January 2nd, 2019 at 11:25 AM ^
I think he came to Michigan because he was an obvious candidate to start at a major program as well as Harbaugh's reputation as a QB coach.
January 2nd, 2019 at 11:28 AM ^
That’s a strong recruiting pitch.
January 2nd, 2019 at 11:39 AM ^
Yeah, but who was the competition? Most of the good teams already had starters in place or other highly rated guys coming in.
January 2nd, 2019 at 11:46 AM ^
Your ignorance of the other teams who recruited him does not mean there weren’t many. He was the #1 QB in his class, dozens of schools reached out. I know UCLA finished 2nd.
January 2nd, 2019 at 11:55 AM ^
Ha. So UCLA, the team that had just fired their coach and hired a guy who had flamed out at his last two jobs was the main competition? Coupling that with Patterson being a Midwest guy....
...Not much competition at all.
January 2nd, 2019 at 12:06 PM ^
Chip Kelly’s success in college football is undeniable. Patterson lived in 3 different states growing up and was once committed to Arizona. Acting like we haven’t lost high level recruits to UCLA before, or that Shea was averse to going to the southwest/PAC 12 is silly.
January 2nd, 2019 at 12:16 PM ^
Kelly hasn't had a successful season since 2014.
And sure, Michigan has lost recruits to UCLA, but if in this particular instance your main competition is UCLA, that's not much competition at all. It wasn't some amazing recruiting job to get a Toledo guy here.
January 2nd, 2019 at 12:29 PM ^
“This point that has been true multiple times before isn’t true now because I don’t want it to be” is not a great plan of attack in a debate.
Also, when does a kid stop being a Midwest/Toledo kid? When he’s lived in Texas for 5+ years? When he’s lived in 4 different Gulf states for 8+ years? When his time spent outside of Ohio made up all of him formative years and has nearly equaled time spent in Ohio?
January 2nd, 2019 at 1:46 PM ^
I mean, at least I have a point of attack.
I'm arguing that if a UCLA team with a new coach who flamed out of his last two jobs is your main competition for a kid with eyes on the NFL after one season...its not much competition at all. Especially given that he grew up in the Midwest.
Your argument is "We lost some guys to the prior UCLA regime and Chip Kelly was good 5 years ago, so it was a huge recruiting job to get him here" which is just...dumb.
January 2nd, 2019 at 12:13 PM ^
Woof, those are just awful points. You should just give this up.
January 2nd, 2019 at 11:05 AM ^
Personally I prefer Dylan McCaffrey, call me crazy but I believe he leads us to the promise land not Shea. Not saying I don't like Shea, but I like Dylan better. 1 he's a McCaffrey and 2 I like his deep ball better 3 is his athleticism and build.
January 2nd, 2019 at 11:09 AM ^
You like McCafferey's deep ball better? He threw what, 3 or 4 deep balls all season? While Patterson was the best or 2nd best in the B1G in that category.
January 2nd, 2019 at 11:11 AM ^
You read that correctly. Neg me if you want, it's my opinion and I'm not sorry it offended you
January 2nd, 2019 at 11:17 AM ^
I just don't think we saw a big enough sample size. What we saw of McCaffrey was promising, no question. I just can't say we saw enough to declare he did one thing or another better than Patterson.
January 2nd, 2019 at 11:22 AM ^
... it's my opinion and I'm not sorry it offended you
Good lord. Nothing in KTisClutch's well-written, well-reasoned post indicated he was offended. He just disagreed with you.
January 2nd, 2019 at 11:25 AM ^
I don't think it offended him...I think he's just disagreeing with you. There is far more evidence that Shea throws thet better deep pass. He has his flaws, but that isn't one of them.
January 2nd, 2019 at 1:12 PM ^
Shea probably threw 2/3 passes farther than 40 yards all season LOL
January 2nd, 2019 at 11:12 AM ^
It's always easy to like the next guy better because we don't yet know his flaws and believe they have the potential to be lesser than the flaws of the guy we know, which is true, but does not make him better...it just means we don't know yet.
January 2nd, 2019 at 11:16 AM ^
Who are you better than at liking Dylan?
January 2nd, 2019 at 11:27 AM ^
So, you are saying you like the backup quarterback better? Sounds familiar, where have I heard that before?
January 2nd, 2019 at 11:57 AM ^
Im excited to see what shea does in his 2 nd year in the program. Im also very excited to see what dcaff does when he takes over after next year.
January 2nd, 2019 at 1:26 PM ^
Pretty much gonna get the same as this year since he’s limited in his ability
January 2nd, 2019 at 1:10 PM ^
Honestly, Peters deep balls in the spring game 2017 were better than anything we’ve seen from Dylan yet. Let’s not get too excited about small sample sizes
January 2nd, 2019 at 11:05 AM ^
Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray are both transfer QBs and Justin Fields might transfer to Oklahoma. Clearly there is something wrong going on at Oklahoma because they can't recruit QBs that play for them.
January 2nd, 2019 at 11:06 AM ^
So?
Shouldnt the best QB start for Michigan regardless of who was the primary recruiter?
2015 - Impossible to start one your own recruits - he didnt have any
2016 - Best QB on the roster was Speight by FAR. Who should he have started in your opinion?
2017 - Again, best QB on the roster was Speight, at least at the start of the season. The fact that Peters allegedly pouted when he didnt beat out O'Korn isn't really Harbaugh's fault is it?
2018 - Which QB should he have started over the 5 star transfer from Mississippi? What did you not see in Patterson that you think McCaffery, Peters or Mixon would provide?
2019 - Now we have a returning 5 star QB for the first time since Christ was a kid but you think one of the three amigos should get the starting job over him? Why in the heck is that?
There are a lot of things to be unhappy about right now with the football program. IMO this is definitely not one of them.
January 2nd, 2019 at 11:29 AM ^
2015 - Fair.
2016 - Probably fair as well. But let's say O'Korn isn't there: Does Gentry move to TE? Doesn't Peters get more reps? Do we know what Gentry would have looked like as a QB roughly Wilton Speight sized but more well-regarded out of HS with better mobility?
2017 - Speight probably starts, because an upperclassmen starter almost never loses their job. But he got hurt, so who was brought in. O'Korn. Again, what does the season look like if one of Gentry or Peters is #2 all along. Dunno.
2018 - This is what I'm talking about with short term success. Patterson came off two years as a partial starter, so even with taking in the new system, he was likely better prepared in the short term. Definitely the highest floor guy. Probably just the best guy overall. But would someone like McCaffrey have a higher ceiling? When I think about guys like Smith, Luck and Kaepernick, I don't really get a Patterson vibe. But you could see someone of McCaffrey's athleticism and build being those guys.
2019 - Again, Patterson isn't going to lose his job because returning upperclassmen don't. And maybe he'll be great with another year under his belt. I certainly hope so. But to me it feels like the staff wants a certain offense and Shea has to fit into it and there's a limit to how far that takes you, whereas one of the other guys might be a better fit for what they want, but won't get the opportunity because of the returning starter bit.
January 2nd, 2019 at 1:34 PM ^
2018 the best QB should have started and it wasn’t Shea .. He was gifted the starting job soon as he transferred .. 10-3 we could have went 10-3 with Peters and Dylan .. Dylan and Peters both have better arm strength the ability to stretch the field and are just as mobile .
January 2nd, 2019 at 11:09 AM ^
I think it's hard to answer that question until after Patterson moves on and either Peters, McCaffrey, or Milton gets his opportunity. From what I've seen so far Patterson is not a huge upgrade over McCaffrey, but does give us some mobility over Peters, and I'm not sure I've seen Milton have to make a read yet. I think Patterson has the best combination of arm ability, mobility, leadership, and understanding of the offense, but I think both McCaffrey and Milton have the potential to be better.
January 2nd, 2019 at 11:11 AM ^
A year ago, I thought this was a negative from a future recruiting perspective. But, continued recruiting success at the QB position tells me that it doesn't matter. Not sure why a QB prospect would choose Michigan at this point, but it continues to happen. So matter this does not.
January 2nd, 2019 at 11:13 AM ^
I was talking about this with a close friend the other day.
After watching the season play out I feel like this year was a “feeling out” season and that Harbaugh never fully trusted Shea. I’ve said before that as well as Shea played, he left a ton of yards/points on the field. Yes, before you guys crucify me, play calling was odd at times and probably didn’t help. But that’sy point, I’m not sure the play callers knew what to call because of some limitations at QB and OL.
Would this have been different if Peters or Dylan had started? Obviously, we don’t know. But, it seems to me that Patterson was both a blessing and a curse. On the one hand he gave Michigan its best QB play in many years, but on the other hand he made the offense choppy.
Now, being a “glass half full” guy, I think there’s also a very positive perspective that ties in with the need to change the offensive scheme. Shea has the zone read/RPO skill set and seems like a nice bridge of sorts between where the offense was and where it (maybe, hopefully) is going when led by Dylan and then Milton.
I hate to write of Peters in all this as I’d really like to see him contribute. We’ll see what happens but Dylan looked like he would really thrive in a RPO/Zone Read based scheme, not so sure about Peters.
January 2nd, 2019 at 1:20 PM ^
Shea Patterson was as good as the offensive line in front of him allowed. His ability to throw on the run, which he had to quite often, was pretty important given the pair of tackles we had on the field. I think we were still game planning around the O-line which was a problem whenever we faced a D-line with talent.
The biggest determinant for offensive success in 2019 will be getting better performance from the offensive line. Warriner made a big difference in his first season. I look forward to continued improvement in 2019, but the it's probably going to take the development of this year's recruiting class to get this line over the top. Frustrating, but there doesn't appear to be a quick fix for building an offensive line.
January 2nd, 2019 at 11:21 AM ^
2015 - Harbuagh's guys are true freshman in a recruiting class quickly put together - never going to start at QB unless you are insanely talented. Gentry and Malzone were not. Harbaugh brings in Rudock as Morris and Speight are not ready to be QBs at UM.
2016 - Speight - was left for dead by everyone before Harbaugh got here to coach him.
2017 - Speight - see above.
2018 - Patterson - brought in by Harbaugh due to him being available in unusual circumstances.
2019 - Patterson - see above.
Can we really count 2015 through 2017? The 2015 recruiting class was put together in like 30 days and then Harbaugh did such a good job coaching Speight that he won the job over a transfer (who you are determining doesn't count as Harbaugh's guy) and a true freshman QB recruit; and then became a decent to good Big 10 QB. Then starters are entrenched (as you stated). So 2018 would be the first year we could reasonably expect a Harbaugh recruit to start.
If Patterson doesn't come here than either McCaffery or Peters would've been the starter this year (and we probably would've been worse as a team). I don't think its fair to indict Harbaugh as not being able to scout and pick QB recruits well when he sees an opportunity to bring in a player of Patterson's caliber and takes it.
January 2nd, 2019 at 11:37 AM ^
If Patterson didn't come here Speight might have stayed and started this year.
I thought he was really good in 2016 before he got hurt. It's a shame that Jedd left and he and Pep didn't see eye to eye.
January 2nd, 2019 at 11:48 AM ^
I disagree with your notion that Speight left because of Patterson. Speight announced his intentions to transfer before the bowl game last year - Patterson was recruited here because Speight decided to transfer, not the other way around.
However, I do agree on your other point - Speight seemed to flourish under Fisch and Pep couldn't make it work as well (talent/experience around Speight may have impacted that as well). If Fisch had stayed, 2017 may have been very different for Speight and he may have still been here for 2018. I don't think Speight had a good relationship with Pep or JH.
January 2nd, 2019 at 12:30 PM ^
I thought Patterson was on our radar when Speight announced his transfer, but I could be remembering wrong. I do use a fair amount of drugs.
January 2nd, 2019 at 1:41 PM ^
I thought so too . I thought it was being reported that Patterson wanted out and was looking at Michigan but then again Speight might not have been welcomed back after his injury history
January 2nd, 2019 at 11:21 AM ^
May not even matter if JH has a fourth year 7* as long as dino ball is a thing.
January 2nd, 2019 at 11:23 AM ^
Peters is the only QB who can be upset but he was passed by younger guys. That was Harbaugh's first real QB recruit and he missed. That just prolonged the need for a transitional QB and one that is very good in Shea.
January 2nd, 2019 at 1:12 PM ^
I agree that Peters is the only guy this applies to, but I think it's wrong to call him a miss. He was a victim of last year's OL but was Patterson's backup coming out of fall camp. Bad luck for him, he was injured just when he would have gotten the playing time that McCaffrey took. I think everyone, including Harbaugh, expects Peters to transfer, which explains Milton's playing time at Peters' expense. Things haven't worked out for him but Peters has good ability and will probably excel if he does transfer.
January 2nd, 2019 at 11:26 AM ^
Don't care who starts and from where. WINNING is the only thing that matters. People forget what a dumpster fire Michigan was when Harbaugh took over. The cupboard was bare at most positions and especially so at QB. Still a ways to go, but Michigan has come a LONG way. I know patience is not what most of us want at this point. We just need a little more time to further strengthen the OLINE, the QB Room looks as good as it has looked in over 10 years, there is more speed at all positions and a top 10 recruiting class. So much to look forward too. Now the big question is, the talent is there, can the coaching staff take the next step? That is the only questions left.
January 2nd, 2019 at 11:28 AM ^
Maybe Gentry turns into a passable QB, but it wasn't just Michigan that was recruiting him as an athlete that maybe could be a QB if you squint. By all accounts Gentry was given a shot to be a QB at Michigan but it was clear he was behind a couple of other guys and, regardless, his clearest path to playing time and the NFL was as a receiver. And I wouldn't have blamed him had he left, and maybe he could have made it work as QB, but I look at guys with his combination of size (Matt Jones, Nick Fitzgerald, Tyron Swoopes, etc.) and speed that it makes sense for them to make the jump because they are such a matchup nightmare. And not for nothing, but like almost all HS QBs a knock was he had some mechanical/accuracy issues. I assume those were looked at and, who knows, maybe they couldn't be hammered out sufficiently to compete with the other guys.
Also, I like that we have come full-circle on Brandon Peters, someone who is now considered the "right fit" for Harbaugh's offense after being run out of town last year.
Had Patterson left this year, McCaffrey would have taken over. We saw it. Yes, it's troubling that Michigan hasn't developed a top-flight starter, though getting the former #1 guy in his class mutes that concern a bit.
January 2nd, 2019 at 11:37 AM ^
Who was Gentry behind? Rudock, sure. Speight's older, so sure. But also John O'Korn, who comes in with a leg up because he's played and started games prior to getting to Michigan. Maybe he stays at QB if there's a better chance at PT. I think the team certainly would have been in better position if those two are fighting it out with (or behind) Speight. Instead, it was "O'Korn is neck and neck with Speight!", despite that being not anywhere close to true when it actually came to performance. Having O'Korn around certainly delayed the development of the other QBs and hurt Peters confidence.
A lot (almost all) of what people said regarding Peters revolved around his bowl performance. For me personally, I was in the camp that Michigan didn't need Patterson because I was encouraged by Peters...until the bowl game. I changed my tune. However, I've heard numerous times that Peters didn't actually get to practice as much as everyone thought because of the injury, so at least for me, I wonder if he's more the guy who showed a lot of promise earlier in the year or the bowl game. I lean toward the former with new information.
January 2nd, 2019 at 11:39 AM ^
Peters was done at Michigan when he checked out in 2017 when Speight was named the starter. Had he kept his nose to the grindstone he could have been #2 instead of O'Korn. Probably would have won us an extra game or two that year.
January 2nd, 2019 at 11:44 AM ^
I thought it was that he was still behind O'Korn that caused him to check out?
January 2nd, 2019 at 1:10 PM ^
Nope, he said it himself. He checked out when Speight was named the #1 during fall practice. He didn't start taking it seriously again until Speight went down.
I'll bet that didn't sit too well with JH. Like at all.
January 2nd, 2019 at 1:30 PM ^
Gentry was behind all three of those guys, plus Malzone and Morris were on the team if memory serves me right. Obviously guys left and moved around, but coaches also recognize when a guy is more valuable at another position given the guys ahead of him. Maybe Gentry fights behind Speight, but there's also the real possibility that he was even farther behind O'Korn and Speight than you're giving him here. I mean, as you noted, the gap between O'Korn and Speight was wider than reported, so it's reasonable to assume that other gaps existed.
I always thought Peters was unfairly vilified for that bowl game; nobody gave Higdon and Evans nearly as much shit for not rushing for over 100 yards combined and fumbling a couple of times. And I thought it was pretty well known that his injury lingered and he didn't practice a ton before the bowl game. But I also can see how the staff thought O'Korn looked like the better option after Speight went down; they barely asked Peters to throw the ball downfield and the playbook definitely looked more constricted with him out there. Now, O'Korn's probably wasn't much larger but my guess is the staff trusted him more. I 100% expect him to transfer soon, and I think that'll be a miss by Michigan on a guy who could have been a good player at QB.
January 2nd, 2019 at 11:36 AM ^
Does someone like Gentry play QB? A 6'7" QB who can move? What does a QB battle of Speight, Gentry and Peters look like if the staff isn't forcing him to play TE?
The battle would look the same as it did in real life - Speight wins. If Gentry were the best QB on the roster, he'd have remained a QB. He was not, and found a new position at which he played well enough to declare for the NFL Draft.