Gonzaga or USC?
Normally I don't like to talk about the NEXT round until our team is done with the current one. But we've gotta sit through the Zags-Trojans game tomorrow night regardless, so......
What are we thinking? Do we pull for USC because duh, you want to play a 6 seed not a 1 seed?
Or....do we want the shot at beating an Undefeated Gonzaga and denying them the first undefeated title since the 70's? With USC and the Pac 12 playing so well, USC might not be that much less of an opponent anyway. KenPom has USC up to #6 (thought still WAAAAY behind Gonzaga), and they will jump even higher if they win tomorrow. They have the top ranked defense (#4 overall) of the remaining teams, and are closing in on having a top 10 overall offense too. Though the Elite 8 is offense-heavy--USC offense is only 6th out of the 8 at 14th overall.
This is NOT meant to be a "look ahead" post or anything. UCLA is good and playing really well, so we have our hands full. But--most of us will be watching the other game too So....what do we want?
I think they’re putting the final touches on their letter to the NCAA.
It’s not like there are any ‘easy’ final four games, but I’d rather play a good USC team than Gonzaga. They may play in a crap conference, but their out of conference schedule was legit and they’ve looked every bit the part of a dominant one seed so far. Gimme the 6 seed any day of the week
I tell you who I’m rooting for and that’s Oregon State. We better be hoping they win tonight because the NCAA loves storylines and a really high seed makes a storyline for the Final Four irregardless of the competition they provide for the other participants. I don’t want the higher seed they are looking at to be the one we are playing late tomorrow night. Plus, the undefeated Gonzaga team is the biggest storyline of the tournament and whether they will be the first since 1972. UCLA is an easier path for that then Michigan is for Gonzaga. I’d rather not give the NCAA any more reasons to want us to lose.
I didn't understand the part about Oregon State and what it has to do with Michigan. Also, I can assure you there is no conspiracy to ensure the "best storylines" remain intact. The NCAA isn't manipulating games so that Gonzaga can be the first undefeated team since 1972.
Also, the glass slipper of Cinderella does not fit UCLA very well.
No seed higher than 11 has made it to the Final Four since the NCAA expanded in 1986. This would be a first for either Oregon State or UCLA. I prefer Oregon State.
UCLA is an 11 seed, so them making the FF would not be all that rare or shocking. I think four or five 11 seeds have made it in the past 30 years, and historically 11s are more likely to make the FF than 10s, 9s, 7s and 6s. Hard to believe but it's true.
That being said, only 2.9% of 11 seeds make the FF. I'm betting UCLA ends up in the other 93.1% tomorrow night.
You’re correct, I retract that part. They still have the First Four to Final Four storyline though. I just don’t want to get to late tomorrow night and have a close game with them and let the refs start to get impacted by their run. Hopefully we run them out of the gym and it’s not close. I’d like to think Juwan and his story and the loss of livers would make a good enough story for us.
You really think the NCAA, the media and anyone else associated with college basketball doesn’t want to see Gonzaga go undefeated and be the first team since 1972 to do so? You don’t see where having Oregon State or UCLA being in the Final Four creates a great storyline to follow? Going from first four to the Final Four or 12 seed makes it to Final Four. Since the tournament expanded in 1986, no seed higher than 11 has made it to the Final Four. What’s Michigan’s storyline that outdoes theirs? A year after the pandemic shut the tournament down and a year where their darling blue bloods didn’t make the tournament or made first round exits, these make great storylines. Gonzaga is super talented and doesn’t need much help at all but if they do in a close game, they’ll get it.
Do you believe the game against Louisville in 2014 was called straight up or is it possible Ricky P (he was beloved at the time) and the dude that broke his leg in the tournament was the biggest storyline? I think certain coaches, players and storylines have the propensity to sway the games a little. Not every single game but high profile ones. Sometimes a team plays so well that there’s no way to go about it and things adjust. I love college basketball but I’m not blind enough to overlook the millions of dollars that flow in from Vegas and other avenues. That’s my conspiracy theory and I’m sticking to it.
So the NCAA wants Michigan, one of the most rating-friendly programs in the nation, to lose?
Thanks, Q.
March 29th, 2021 at 10:40 PM ^
The only thing the NCAA enjoys more than a Michigan win is a Michigan loss.
USC all day long.
Gonzaga is a fantastic college team with multiple future pros playing a fun style of basketball. I'd rather play them from an aesthetic standpoint. I highly doubt they blow out USC. USC is playing that Syracuse zone, but with some two legit 7 foot guys. I think that game will be a slog.
Gonzaga is one on T-rank over the last month and USC is 3. I think Gonzaga is the best team in the country, but the idea that USC is just going to get trucked is interesting..
Canned gravy or gravy in a jar?
Formica or Granite countertops?
But DEFINITELY home-made gravy.
Does anybody choose Formica (laminate) countertops over granite except for cost considerations? Quartz is even better. Don’t have to seal it, it won’t stain, & it’s strong as hell.
When it comes to gravy, for ease, try the powdered mixes with water & Campbell’s cream of anything. My wife makes meatballs with brown gravy mix & cream of chicken mushroom. Yum!
I appreciate the gravity with which you have addressed the gravy question.
Way better than talking about the best way to ‘express’ certain glands in your K-9....
Make a roux--The Michigan Difference
March 29th, 2021 at 10:35 PM ^
True, but quartz in colors other than white and variants there of is expensive. Quartzite is even harder and stupidly expensive, fwiw
Do not want the team that has rampaged over everyone and has 3 projected first round picks.
The only way you are going to beat the Zags is in a shootout as I do not see anyone slowing down their offense. I keep seeing people pointing to them trailing BYU at half, but BYU shot 68% from the field including making 9 3's at 69% in the first half to get that lead. Once water found its level, they ended up at 46% and 39%, while the in the game people point to as them maybe being vulnerable, the Zags finished that game at 51% and 46%, scoring 88 points in the process, they have be held under 80 points only 3 times this year. All that said, give me USC all day.
Can we just focus on UCLA for now please?
I'd prefer USC.
Then don't talk about the next round!
BEAT UCLA!
this is like going to the doctor and they ask if you'd rather get the coronavirus vaccine or a pill that will give you a terrible migraine and diarrhea
On the one hand, it would add some extra "prestige" to knock out an undefeated and dominate Gonzaga on route to a title.
On the other hand, beating USC provides a much easier route to an NCAA title.
Lets say you get 100 "historic" prestige points for beating Gonzaga in the final 4, and 1000 for winning the NCAA title, and 200 for runner-up. Michigan has about a 25% chance of beating Gonzaga and a 55% chance of beating USC (I'm extrapolating a bit from Torvik's numbers), and 50% of winning whoever they play in the finals (not extrapolating, just lazy), then the expected prestige points would be (100*.25 + 1000*.5*.25 + 200*.5*.25) 175 if they played Gonzaga, and (100*.55 + 1000*.5*.55 + 200*.5*.55) 385 if they played USC. So, mathematically, I'm obliged to root for USC, and wait for someone to tell me my math is wrong.
And, yes, I am this dull at dinner parties.
Nobody told me there was going to be math. I object.
I guess the question is, is Gonzaga really exponentially better than USC? Obviously they haven't lost and have several good wins from earlier this season.
They also had played about ONE decent team since before Christmas. And that team got taken out by UCLA.
The metrics say they are a ton better, but the metrics are fluctuating wildly due to the lack of non-conference games earlier this season.
The Pac-12 is obviously very very strong, and USC seems to be firing on all cylinders. It will be really interesting if they can slow down Gonzaga at all on offense.
While I'd prefer we play USC, I'd be interested in seeing if they'd be able to deal with our defense in the final few minutes of a tight game, something Gonzaga hasnt faced all season and probably very rarely over the last few years.
This is mostly a sports radio question by hosts that have nothing else to talk about. We want to win the national title and Gonzaga is the most likely to prevent that from happening.
If you believe in karma, expect UM-Gonzaga. The last undefeated team (IU '76) beat us in the championship game. With Gonzaga trying to go perfect in Indiana, it would make sense that we'd have a shot of knocking off another undefeated team.
If you're playing karma ball, the last two perfect teams to play in the Final Four lost in the semifinals in Indianapolis (UNLV 1991 and Kentucky 2015).
I still remember that 1990 Duke team for beating that UNLV team. But that's a pretty special case. UNLV was defending champs, had won like 40-some consecutive games, cruised through a relatively difficult schedule and like 80% of people were picking them to win it all. Otoh, more people remember the last minute Lattner shot the next year against Kentucky than the victory over UNLV. Great moments trump great victories, I suppose.
I hope they play the greatest game in NCAA history and it's played at a blistering fast tempo and it goes 10+ overtimes and finishes after our game.
If USC beats Gonzaga then it just lends credence to the notion that they are, once again, not head and shoulders above everyone else. And that also means USC is really damn good. Either way it's a tough road and a well earned national championship. Oh and BTW, it would be done without our second leading scorer.
Gonzaga. The last thing we want to see is USC turn into a basketball recruiting powerhouse. We have seen what can happen in football when they start winning.
Listen...
Any of the bluebloods (Michigan, Ohio State, Texas, Alabama, etc.) and a select few nouveau riche (Miami, Florida State, Florida, LSU) can have a decade-long dynasty.
But it takes the right coach. In fact, this is why Warren Buffett argues that the right CEO is correctly paid millions. His (or her) vision/strategy sets the culture and future of the organization.
Let me give you an example from basketball.
Did Indiana make Bobby Knight or did Bobby Knight make Indiana Hoops? Look at IU before Knight, with Knight, and after Knight.
In time, we'll probably see this play out with Duke Basketball as well. Did Coach K make Duke Basketball or did Duke Basketball make Coach K.
Anyone that follows college sports knows the value of having an elite HC. This should be very apparent especially to Michigan fans given the ups and downs we've experienced.
Very few schools/programs/institutions (including corporations) go from one great leader to another. In "amateur" athletics, KU basketball is probably the gold standard in this regard: from Larry Brown to Roy Williams to Bill Self. That's an incredible string of hires which resulted in many conference championships, many Final Fours, and 2 National Championships.
In pro sports, the Steelers are the gold standard going from Chuck Noll to Bill Cowher to Mike Tomlin. (Think of the consistency and continuity.)
You're probably wondering: "Gee...what prompted this reply?"
My answer: USC is not some inherently superior program. Does it have access to incredibly fertile recruiting ground? Yes.
Some jobs might be (slightly) easier than others.
But Alabama isn't some hotbed of talent (though there are some exceptional talents that come out of the state ever year). In fact, Georgia produces waaaaay more talent than Alabama and Louisiana produces the most talent per capita (even ahead of Florida iirc). So why is Alabama in the midst of arguably the greatest dynasty and not LSU/Georgia/Florida? The answer is Saban. And a cheaper imitation (Kirby Smart) of an all-time great coach isn't enough. After all, Diet Coke isn't Coke Classic. (And neither is Coke Zero btw. I tried it and I was predictable disappointed.)
Put Saban in any of those other schools and he probably replicates 90+% of the success he's had at Alabama.
Also, USC's exceptional recruiting ground actually kind of works against it at time. If a kid who wanted to go to USC doesn't get an offer or gets turned into a plan B, that can often come back to haunt USC. Just look at the number of Ohio kids that OSU rejected who came to Michigan and made OSU pay over the years.
I'll end by saying that with the right coach any of about 10-15 schools can sit up the throne of college football for a decade plus. Right now, it's Alabama's turn just like it was Pete Carroll's turn before Saban/Meyer just like it was Bowden's turn in the 90s.
Wishing USC wins but reality gives the nod to the Zags. They are just too solid.
Gonzaga is annually overrated because they play in the WCC, and the Pac-12 was ludicrously underrated this year.
Don’t get me wrong, Gonzaga is legit good. But historically good? Let’s see them make some history first.
Point is, I honestly don’t have a preference because I don’t see either team being a cakewalk. Not that there should be any this deep into a tournament. I also don’t think they’re unbeatable, either of them.
Besides, whatever happens, we have Juwan Howard.
It's pick your poison. Gonzaga is flawless and USC is a bad matchup for us.
Aside from my crazy conspiracies I’d actually prefer to play USC. If we had Livers I’d say bring on Gonzaga. USC would present some challenges though. They have the size to contend with Hunter and play a 2-3 zone that we haven’t seen in awhile. The good thing is we would have all week to prepare for it though.
This is a damn jinx. No thanks.
LOL yes talking about which team we want to win a game that is going to be played before ours will clearly affect the outcome of our game.
C'mon, everyone knows we have to play a great game to get past UCLA. The players are focused on UCLA and then have 3-4 days to think about the next game. A bunch of fans talking about the other game has ZERO affect on our players.
But it does affect karma! I have many decades of fandom of evidence!
Just Win the Game
Ah Gonzaga. Is this a trick question?
USC is the choice for sure.
Of course you want USC. There's no question. 1-seeds are 11-5 against 6-seeds and 23-23 against other 1-seeds in the history of the tournament. That's without taking any other factors into account. So it's no slam dunk but it sure as hell is the preference.
Additional point: of course UCLA is the better matchup than Bama. 1 seeds are 40-35 against 2-seeds. 1's and 2's are a combined 18-5 against 11-seeds (although if you want to convince yourself that the sky is falling 1's are only 4-3 against 11's, but that sample size is far too low to trust the data as representative)
EDIT: Another way to combine to the data, 1's are 10-4 against the 10 or 11 seed (let's be real 10's and 11's are practically the same here). Combine it further: 1's or 2's vs. 10's or 11's are 62-28 all time. Whatever way you look at it the (historical) odds are probably around 67% to beat UCLA vs. 53% to beat Bama. That's the difference between a toss-up and Michigan as the slight but clear favorite.
I did this because stats r fun.