Essentials

WHAT	Michigan vs SMU
WHERE	Michigan Stadium Ann Arbor, MI
WHEN	3:30 PM EDT
THE LINE	Michigan –35.5
TELEVISION	BTN
TICKETS	exist
WEATHER	cloudy, 80+, humid, slight chance of rain, gross

Overview

Southern Methodist University is bad at football, having lost to the North Texas Mean Green by three-plus scores. And it was actually worse than that: all of SMU's 23 points came in the fourth quarter after North Texas had jumped out to a 36-0 lead; 14 of them came with under two minutes left. Even with the garbage time polishing, the Mustangs got outgained two-to-one and rushed for 4 yards. Things were actually less lopsided against #15 TCU last week thanks in part to a weather delay and gouts of rain during play, but SMU again failed to crack 250 yards.

It wasn't supposed to be like this: Chad Morris did well enough after inheriting the #127 S&P+ team to jump to Arkansas. New coach Sonny Dykes inherited a team that was one game below .500 the previous two years. SMU returns their starting QB and big chunks of the #11 S&P+ offense, but apparently the wrong chunks.

Or Sonny Dykes is not a good football coach. It might say something about something that the Mustangs went from a team that was competitive against undisputed national champion UCF to a humiliating 51-10 bowl blowout at the hands of Louisiana Tech once Dykes took over.

Either way, Michigan is favored by five touchdowns and change.

[Hit THE JUMP for WORDS about a BAD FOOTBALL TEAM]

Run Offense vs SMU

SMU's defense was miserable a year ago and seems fairly miserable this year. They did hold TCU under 400 yards in a game that was competitive at halftime, but weather led to special teams mishaps and once it cleared up TCU put on the gas. The Horned Frogs ripped SMU for 264 rushing yards at almost seven yards a pop*. North Texas was far less successful—their two main backs combined for 62 yards on 29 carries.

Michigan will hope to be on the TCU end of that scale. To do that they're going to have to block up some small guys coming from different angles. SMU runs a 3-3-5 that rotates through a lot of guys seemingly because they don't know if they have anyone who can play. Seth noted that they're pretty conservative with their formations and blitz calls—averaging almost exactly four rushers per play—and try to make up for that with linebackers who trigger on anything that looks like it might be a run.

That's a recipe for giving up a high number of mid-range runs when your front seven loses and a safety who started at 12 yards comes into clean it up. That was the pattern TCU had, with a long of 30 and five different rushers with a 10-yard-plus carry. To achieve that Michigan will have to move DL and find those hair-trigger LBs quickly enough to crease the front, whereupon they will receive yards a-plenty since the safeties will be trying to keep a lid on everything instead of tearing for the ball.

This, too, sounds like a defensive unit just trying to survive until they have an idea of what to do. Michigan should be able to move out some mediocre DL enough to get those gaps, and chunk their way down the field as SMU tries to find a point at which "bend" becomes "don't break." Survey says:

Who da hell is they preparin to fight bruh pic.twitter.com/eQ2Owa56SI

— KANG COOLEH (@YayerGangCoolee) August 22, 2018

*[two TEAM rushes for –25 yards were special teams mishaps and eliminated]

KEY MATCHUP: JAMES HUDSON vs FIRST QUARTER SNAPS. LFG!

Pass Offense vs SMU

444 yards vs SMU, and dude is like 60 now

The bad news keeps coming for the Mustangs, which allowed Mean Green quarterback Scott "Mason Fine" Bakula to complete an astounding 40 of 50 passes for an equally astounding 444 yards. TCU's Shawn Robinson did less well, but mostly because he couldn't hit the open guys SMU left him enough. And good lord some of these attempts at coverage are miserable.

Compounding issues is a pass rush that doesn't have a lot of guys in it—see the previous section. Seth charted 21 different three-man rushes. Also those guys are more DT than DE. As a result SMU has just two sacks on the year. This would be an opportunity to get some reps in if you were so inclined, perhaps with a promising redshirt freshman.

SMU plays a ton of off coverage and has two deep safeties on many plays: bend, don't break. They'll try to tackle on short stuff until they get you in a third down, at which point they'll turn the heat up (a bit) in an effort to get the opposition off the field. With the linebackers firing hard on play action this should be a day for Michigan's tight ends to be hand-wavingly wide open between those guys and the safeties.

 KEY MATCHUP: PASS PROTECTION vs HAVING THE CONFIDENCE TO DO IT A LITTLE AGAINST A TEAM THAT'S A SOFT PILLOW FOR THE OFFENSIVE LINE TO SNUGGLE AGANST. If they don't take the tackles out for a spin, I dunno man.

Run Defense vs SMU

i don't know ask these guys

This is an Air Raid, so expect WRs and more WRs and then some attempts to get the ball to the back in situations where Michigan is expecting a pass, which should be all situations. Main running back Braeden West is an 185-pound scatback generously listed at 5'11"; think SMU-level Chris Evans. Xavier Jones and Ke'Mon Freeman are burlier sorts.

SMU returns three starting OL and a couple more guys who have a smattering of starts under their belt, but despite the relatively experienced crew they're still abnormally wee:

These five average only 6’5 and 281 pounds, and only one returnee is listed heavier than 288. But they opened some holes last year, so hey, size must not be everything.

SMU celebrates the last time they were good by having 1980s-sized offensive linemen. Despite the oompa-loompas doing their blocking the Mustangs were pretty good at it a year ago; early results from both teams suggest that will not be the case on Saturday.

Expect a Maryland approach: since SMU isn't likely to move out Bryan Mone and Carlo Kemp they'll empty their playbook of tricky edge stuff. Yards that don't require a lot of blocks will be the target. It's not a coincidence that the flashy scatback guy is averaging 5.5 YPC and the interior pounders are at 2.6.

That'll be a test for Michigan's edge discipline and the WLB's ability to get sideline-to-sideline. It shouldn't be much of a test for the interior line, and SMU will try to option Michigan's defensive ends as much as possible. Expect that zone-read-to-speed-option look, which opponents will run until Michigan can defend it.

KEY MATCHUP: CARLO KEMP vs SUDDEN EXPECTATIONS. Kemp's first start was productive and encouraging stuff against a meatball opponent. Here is another meatball opponent; if Kemp can repeat his performance Michigan's one step closer to addressing the major issue on their defense.

Pass Defense vs SMU

Proche, like your author, is a person who cannot smile on camera. We are legion.

The bulk of SMU's time on offense will be spent running the dink and dunk version of the Air Raid, probably very very badly. Despite inheriting Brandon Hicks, a junior with nearly two years of starting experience under his belt, Dykes's passing offense has been outright horrendous in his first three games:

• vs Louisiana Tech: 19/34, 127 yards, 1 TD, 3 INT.
• vs North Texas: 12/24, 252 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT
• vs TCU: 18/38, 111 yards.

Even the 10 YPA day against North Texas was all garbage time against the Mean Green's backups. Prior to two TD drives with under two minutes on the clock Hicks had 100 yards on the day. ESPN's QBR stat discounts garbage time, and it gives Hicks a 1.3 for his efforts in the opener. "Wow, that's a low rating," you're thinking, "but is that out of 5 or 10?" QBR is out of 100.

Whenever you have a passing offense that wretched some of it goes back to the offensive line, and sure enough SMU has already given up eight sacks. That's tied for 121st with a not-at-all-unusual 31 attempts a game. (One of the only teams worse than SMU? UCLA. Poor damn Wilton Speight.) Oompa-loompa oopa-di-do, I've got a defensive end delivered to you.

SMU's top two WRs declared for the draft after last season and both got picked, Courtland Sutton in the second round and Trey Quinn in the seventh. #3 James Proche returns after 57 and 40 catches his first two years and will be SMU's main target. He was nearly half of SMU's passing yards against TCU and scored a 59-yard touchdown in the opener. Proche isn't big but he's not a screen guy. He gets downfield:

He got four stars from ESPN as a recruit and that seems like an accurate take.

The rest of SMU's receiving corps—Reggie Roberson and Myron Gailliard—is similar. Both are listed at 5'11" or 6'0", and that seems generous. This offseason Roberson gained an inch and Gailliard two. As with many small-school Air Raid outfits they take a bunch of slot guys and try to get them the ball in space to see what they can do. Results to date are "not much."

Michigan's side of this will be a lot of tackling in space and various attempts to turn Hicks into a trophy suitable for mounting on the wall. If and when SMU moves the ball it'll be on screens, which are a consistent bugaboo for Don Brown defenses, and the occasional rub route that works out or missed tackle when Michigan goes zone. Six yards an attempt is an optimistic goal for the Mustangs.

KEY MATCHUP: NOAH FURBUSH and FRIENDS vs STOP, DROP, AND ROLL TO A WIDE RECEIVER. Michigan's had some issues this year when man to man gets tipped and then exploited. This will be a fairly low-risk environment in which to get more live-action zone reps to diversify things a bit and give Michigan a confusing change-up option.

Special Teams

Steady and unspectacular Aussie punter... what are we even doing here?

Anyway:

KEY MATCHUP: AHHHHH YOU PUT IT THROUGH THE UPRIGHTS. Apologies for Seth not putting this in the preview last week. That was clearly the reason Quinn Nordin missed a 40-yarder.

Intangibles

Cheap Thrills

Worry if…

• Kemp downgrades to Just A Guy.
• Proche is getting open with some regularity.
• Michigan's still avoiding pass pro at all costs.

Cackle with knowing glee if…

• Michigan's first pass rush ends with three guys meeting at the pile of feathers and viscera that used to be the QB.
• Shea Patterson remains accurate.
• Michigan is at least as good as North Texas.

Fear/Paranoia Level: 2 (Baseline: 5; –1 for They Bad!, –1 for They "Make It Look Good Against North Texas" Bad!, +1 for Oh God The Tackle, +1 for Oh God The Other Tackle, –1 for Totally Gonna Extrapolate From Five Plays Against MAC Backups And Say The Backup Tackles Are Unfairly Suppressed All-Americans, –1 for Seriously I'm Pretty Sure They Lost By Three Touchdowns To The School In Unnecessary Roughness, –1 for Man They Should Remake That, +1 for Seth Green In The Scott Bakula Role, –1 for Actually Seth Green Is Incredibly Short So That Probably Wouldn't Work Out, +1 for I Dunno, Matt Damon?)

Desperate need to win level: 10 (Baseline: 5; +1 for Oh God The Takes, +1 for Five Touchdown Spread, +1 for Oh God The BAWWW, +1 for I Once Again Must Emphasize The Takes, +1 for S&P+ Damage Would Make It Hard To Be Optimistic)

Loss will cause me to… take off all my clothes and walk into Lake Superior to build a new underwater society that only plays chess.

Win will cause me to… CUSS OUT A LOCAL HORSE I TELLYA BOY I WOULD GO RIGHT DOWN TO THE LOCAL PADDOCK AND JUST STARE AT ONE UNTIL HE SAYS "WHAT" AND I SAY "YOU KNOW" AND HE SAYS "I AM A HORSE I DON'T KNOW MUCH" AND I SAY "BOY AIN'T THAT THE TRUTH YOU GUYS CAN'T EVEN PICK UP A 43 WOLF BANANA J TWIST" AND HE SAYS "CAN I HAVE SOME HAY" AND I SAY "NO" AND THEN I PUNCH HIM IN THE WEEBLE-WOBBLES LOL

The strictures and conventions of sportswriting compel me to predict: 

Michigan wins.

Finally, three opportunities for me to look stupid Sunday:

• getting kicked to death by a horse after jammin' up his hingle-bingle would indeed be a stupid look
• Tru Wilson gets 100 yards
• Michigan, 53-5