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I know it's sour grapes and…

I know it's sour grapes and if we analyzed every Michigan offensive snap this way we'd probably find some similar errors and/or things the officials let go... However, I can't get over how crazy things are getting with offensive tackle alignment in football. 

On the big 3rd and 11, Maryland's inside/slot receivers closest to the tackle box were on the LOS. Both outside receivers are about a yard off (maybe even a bit closer at the bottom of the screen). Then you have the LT who's pretty much two yards behind the line! This isn't uncommon these days, but it's crazy to me that a WR can be inside a yard of the line and be considered in the backfield but the OT is (generously) a yard and a half behind but really closer to two yards behind and is considered on the LOS. 

Make it make sense! 

Nebraska mined Texas for…

Nebraska mined Texas for plenty of players, sure, but the famous walk-on program and rampant steroid abuse would also warrant a mention regarding how Nebraska became a power for a couple decades. 

Couldn't agree more. Jalen…

Couldn't agree more. Jalen Brown might not be walking through that door next year, but the program is loaded with young talent. We can afford a down cycle at receiver more than any other unit and will be coming after Ryan Wingo and Nick Marsh HARD in the 2024 class. If Michigan can win Jadyn Davis (and preferably early), next year's class should be the rebound needed. 

Ehhh, Soldier Field is fine. 

Ehhh, Soldier Field is fine. 

Can't really argue with the…

Can't really argue with the results here. McGuffie, Canteen, and McDoom were misses to varying degrees but injuries were significant factors for McGuffie and Canteen not panning out and all three transferred. Speight was actually pretty decent in 2016 though the rest of his career was also hampered by injuries. Most of the other guys that rated lower topped out as ok rotation guys at best. Jourdan Lewis obviously panned out and a couple more in the HM section were pretty solid players, but by and large this seems to be a worthwhile exercise.

Kudos to the team for not assessing players with homerific glasses on and being willing to deviate when it's clear the scouting and rankings are a bit off.  

Alabama has always been a…

Alabama has always been a destination school. Nick Saban was already a national championship winning coach. It seems you're hung up on your own personal certainty that all of his early recruits must have been lured to Tuscaloosa exclusively for shady reasons. Even so, I can't imagine acting like the man who's led his program to a 176-19 record after his first season (and 6 national championships) is just a lucky cheater. 

This may be a hot take, but…

This may be a hot take, but I agree with him? No doubt Saban has dropped a bag and bent a few rules in his day, but his program sells itself. He really doesn't need to pay the most to win recruits when he's running the best NFL factory in the country. The actual spirit of NIL is as he says. The kids with the most clout (whether as an elite player on the field or with a large social following off it) should and now do have an opportunity to make some money without forfeiting their eligibility. That's a massive improvement over the sham of amateurism that had the Fab Five wistfully looking into MDen windows at their jerseys selling like hotcakes while they scrape together pizza money like any other college student. 

Unfortunately, the rules are neither uniform nor enforced, so pay-for-play "collectives" can operate the way Texas A&M has without much fear of scrutiny/punishment. If this just becomes the new normal in perpetuity, I do think it threatens the charm of college football. I've got no qualms with the kids getting paid, but it's really not as interesting from a fan perspective if most Power 5 recruits are just going to the highest bidding "collective" representing a certain school and potentially transferring for a better offer next year. 

If you believe Michigan…

If you believe Michigan State fans, all UM players' philanthropic efforts are overblown and just for clicks/clout/goodwill. Imagine being cynical about something like Blake Corum handing out Thanksgiving dinners to low-income families! 

How do ya think Penn State…

How do ya think Penn State feels with shaky OTs and Hutchinson/Ojabo in their future? 

SP+ is: 


What is SP+? In a…

SP+ is: 

What is SP+? In a single sentence, it's a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. I created the system at Football Outsiders in 2008, and as my experience with both college football and its stats has grown, I have made quite a few tweaks to the system.

It is, as always, important to note that SP+ is intended to be predictive and forward-facing. It is not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling -- no good predictive system is. It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you're lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you're strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise.

Preseason data is de-emphasized every week as more data points are available, but inclusion of those projections makes the model better. 

Harrell was DE all the way…

Harrell was DE all the way and (if he hits) will be ideally suited as an EDGE DE/LB hybrid in the new scheme. Jenkins on the other hand is a DL all the way and would be a real disappointment if he hasn't put on any weight. Having said that, his measurables are identical to his freshman year which at least leaves some faint hope that maybe it just wasn't updated.

This. Pollard's career can…

This. Pollard's career can go in a number of ways, but cornerbacks aren't divided by a hard line into either Olave-eating speed demons or undrafted Watsons. Pollard may not have elite long speed, but if he has the strength to press, hips to turn, acceleration to recover, and length to contest... He's still got All-B1G potential.

I've got no idea what to…

I've got no idea what to make of this take.

The competition to be the…

The competition to be the most pessimistic in the comments will be a sight to behold.

I'm fairly conflicted on…

I'm fairly conflicted on this and to be honest would've would've been a reasonably excited if we had brought in Campbell to replace Harbaugh after a disastrous 2020.

Having said that, we're treating him with kid gloves by comparison but there are still enough flags that give me pause to think he's a home run. I can't get past his 0-4 record against Iowa and his lack of a track record in recruiting. It's clearly a monumental advantage to be Michigan vs Iowa State on the recruiting front, but I've got no reason to believe he'd be any more likely to bring in top 10 classes to Ann Arbor annually than Harbaugh and his new staff are.

Maybe superior player development of the guys we've got, particularly at quarterback, would be so significant that Michigan could perform to the standard in big games that the fanbase is looking for. Still, I just don't know. It's my wish that Michigan drastically outperforms our expectations in 2021 and we can be a bit more united in support of the program rather that fractured into factions of pro/anti Harbaugh. History tells me not to hold my breath on that.

Might've seen the Round 1…

Might've seen the Round 1 for Jake Long to the same Miami Dolphins and mixed that up. Alas, it's been since... uhhhh... Jim Harbaugh in 1987 that Michigan had a 1st round QB. Would be nice to see someone end that dubious run!

We haven't even hear…

We haven't even hear underutilized about Day 1 or Day 2 offensive skill talent because there hasn't been any! The list for the years following the 2008 draft (Carr's last class) that saw Henne and Manningham go in rounds 1 and 3 is bleak. Here you go:

  • 2015: Devin Funchess (2nd round)
  • 2017: Amara Darboh (3rd round)
  • 2021: Nico Collins (3rd round)

Out of 13 draft classes, it's just those three Day 2 WRs. I think we'd all like to believe McCarthy, Edwards, and maybe Corum have strong chances to crack this but it's by no means a given they'll reach that point.

Feels pretty homer-ish…

Feels pretty homer-ish. Projecting a day two pick from a guy I don't think anyone is really expecting to be in the running for 1st or 2nd team All-B1G is a stretch even though I'd love to see it. I find it hard to believe Gemon Green is the best corner to come through Michigan since Leon Hall. Recent corners drafted like Ambry Thomas (3rd), David Long (3rd), and Jourdan Lewis (3rd) were good but not elite prospects and all inspired quite a bit more confidence than any Michigan fan has in Green.

Feels like a lot of…

Feels like a lot of projection to expect anyone but Hutchinson and Hill to go on Day 1 or 2. Best guess is something like this with the older guys plus Dax (with the caveat that it's really difficult to predict how players and coaches will treat the potential COVID exception year moving forward):

Day 1: Hutchinson
Day 2: Hill (with Day 1 upside, but the hype needs a little more productivity than I'm ready to project)
Day 3: Bell, Stueber, Haskins
UDFA: Jeter, Filiaga, Vastardis, Ross, Hawkins

Hayes and Hinton probably have the most draft upside of the other early entry candidates and could absolutely play themselves into Day 2 types with strong seasons. Wouldn't rule out Barrett, Johnson, or (Gemon) Green but barring a major breakout their play to date doesn't indicate anything better than Day 3/UDFA range and would likely benefit from another season in AA.

On an admittedly limited…

On an admittedly limited snap count, he graded out as the #19 Interior Defender in the NFL for 2020 (per PFF). Can't imagine he won't quickly find an opportunity to contribute elsewhere.

This rhetoric is lazy…

This rhetoric is lazy. Michigan has finished at least second in the B1G in 8 of the last 10 cycles and has 6 Top 10 national classes in that span, only once finishing worse than #22. The outliers are 2015 (#37 nationally in a transition year) and 2018 (#22 nationally and Penn State had a monster class, their only top 10 finish in that span).

You certainly can argue that's not good enough to compete at the CFP level and you'd be right, but it's quite a bit more talent than anyone in the B1G outside of OSU and PSU can claim. Nebraska, Michigan State, Maryland, Wisconsin, and Iowa consist mostly of classes between #25-#45 nationally and the Spartans, Badgers, and Hawkeyes still give Michigan a ton of trouble.

It's fair to be excited about the new staff's energy right now, but recruiting is a marathon and the fruits of that work are born 2, 3, 4 years later. Folks seem to think Michigan will sign top 5 classes annually now but even if that happens in one cycle, they'll only have staying power if they win on the field. It's down to the roster (plus a couple transfers potentially) they have to turn things around and quickly or this momentum will dry up with a couple of uninspiring 7-8 win seasons.

Winovich graded out as a…

Winovich graded out as a better player than Gary per PFF and both effectively play 3-4 OLB. Just sayin!

This is actually a quality…

This is actually a quality player from a Power 5 conference, not someone who's a major projection to contributing in the B1G. Also the reason DT is a disaster is attrition from the 2017 class, not recruiting! We wouldn't be playing true freshmen at DT regardless. The poor DT recruiting is more a sign that it's going to remain a problem for a couple years because we haven't recruited sufficient depth to alleviate the problem moving forward.

Paye played 4 years. He…

Paye played 4 years. He could've left after last year but came back for his senior season. If not for the COVID exception, he wouldn't even be eligible for another year. He's a projected 1st or 2nd round pick. Why would he not be going to the NFL to see his dreams come true?

On a typical wager against…

On a typical wager against the spread, you get -110 odds (or something similar pending betting market fluctuation) which means you win $100 for every $110 bet. The winning amount on a $50 wager with -110 odds would be $45.45.

Guys it's still only…

Guys it's still only Oklahoma and Georgia that are threats here. But they are real threats.

You make it sound like these…

You make it sound like these kids don't even know how to put on pads. Skepticism is fine, but literally every college program has turnover like this some years. Most don't just crawl into a hole and beg for mercy because they didn't hear the perfect narrative of insider chatter in fall camp.

Honestly nails the Michigan…

Honestly nails the Michigan bit. There is a level of self-awareness within the college football world that is lost on some of the self-righteous wing of the Michigan fanbase:

Under pressure, Michigan fans revert to a Manichean worldview, dividing the world into good and evil.  Michigan does not cheat, and sends squads of noble warrior-poets into battle against fraudulent mercenaries. The SEC is an ocean of grift. The Pac-12 are fellow travelers but suffer from the crime of being deeply unserious. The rivalry with Ohio State is a conflict not between Michigan and a rival, but an actual pitched battle against a hellmouth of Evil itself. This is not an exaggeration. 

We can all shake our fists…

We can all shake our fists and be angry, but by far the biggest reason DT has been a disaster is not recruiting but attrition of the 2017 class. All three of Solomon, Hudson (yes he came in with potential to play either of DL/OL), and DIB were touted recruits. All three left in summer/fall of 2018, which is why the 2018 class wasn't full of DTs. We can shake our fist and say take 3-4 every year but in reality that's going to be a tough sell to the level of prospects we all want at Michigan, particularly after such a deep and perceived to be talented class.

The 2019 group included two more blue-chippers plus a project SDE/DT with bloodlines in Morris. A very reasonable class even if you all think we should've found and signed 5 elite 320 world destroyers. The incoming group is the egregious one, but it's not some kind of lack of trying. The 2021 cycle has us among the favorites for Benny and Rooks. These are critical recruitments! The staff is recruiting them hard! I don't know what else you really want here.

Official game time…

Official game time announcements... Season preview next week... Fall weather settling in... Folks, we're almost to B1G football!

Never really dove too deeply…

Never really dove too deeply into Corum and for some reason my head had him as blue chip Chris Evans and maybe as a guy that would be featured a little more like Giles Jackson in the new offense than a traditional RB. Did not realize he had the breakaway speed AND was such a tough inside runner. Very much looking forward to him seeing the field now.

Looking at the lineup chart…

Looking at the lineup chart and I forgot how many holes that defense had. Mike Martin really solved a lot of problems, as did an abundance of turnover luck.

Only thing shocking about it…

Only thing shocking about it is that anyone would care.

It's going to be a very…

It's going to be a very interesting camp for the defense. Every spot outside of Viper has an experienced option who'd have to be considered a heavy favorite to start, but the top backup spot will be an absolute war. Cornerback will be one of the fiercest considering the youth at the position and need for at least a third guy to get a lot of snaps. Have to think DJ Turner is the most likely to get a lot of time but someone like Dennis or Seldon may be a better fit covering the slot if that's the way Michigan ends up going. Can't really afford an injury here but feeling a little better about depth moving forward after Ambry leaves in light of this swap.

Checklist for post-Dantonio…

Checklist for post-Dantonio MSU that would make me a little more uneasy:

- a hotshot young OC bringing in a modern offense
- an athletic playmaker at QB
- a highly respected OL coach
- top 20ish recruiting classes

I'm thinking they're 0/4 at the moment. That could certainly change, but for now it's looking like we should have the upper hand for the next 3-4 years. The great equalizer (as it's been for years now) will be if Michigan can't find a QB in a given year, but barring a John O'Korn type starter things are looking pretty Blue in this rivalry.

Agreed, couldn't be a…

Agreed, couldn't be a stupider thing to get mad about with that logic. Day, Riley, and Smart all have a real shot every season. Kelly/Mullen/Cristobal aren't outlandish but would need a lot to happen to really threaten. None of the other names are more than a shot in the dark right now.

Suddenly, closing with…

Suddenly, closing with Edwards, Somerville, Rooks, Benny, Dixon, and at least one more big time OL (Spindler/Dellinger/Kendall) plus a couple more fliers or late cycle guys is looking pretty reasonable. The one spot of concern left barring some changes of heart may be CB, which doesn't have a ton of realistic high-end options. Still, it's shaping up to be a legit top 10 class. And if McCarthy hits... Michigan will have its highest ceiling in forever.

Who's ready for the "He's…

Who's ready for the "He's not fast so I don't want him!" crowd. Hopefully this kid is a complement to the speed focus of the last two classes that are a bit lacking in size.

Holistically, Phinney and Giudice do seem like fliers from this staff's fascination with the northeast. But this is shaping up to be another #8-12ish class. This is where Michigan is without beating OSU, reaching the playoff, winning the B1G, paying players, etc. It's clear we're struggling right now to attract elite talent at WR (who can blame them?) and CB plus our DT strategy is a bit confounding.

Complaints outside of those spots are kind of insane. If the staff closes on Donovan Edwards, another couple high end OL, and sprinkles in some 4 stars on D then this will be right there at 2nd in the B1G (with Penn State in the vicinity as usual and nobody else within shouting distance). Expecting Michigan to have OSU/Clemson/Bama/Georgia levels of top-100 guys will disappoint you every time.

Let's root for the guys we get folks!

Our well of quality corners…

Our well of quality corners in the Harbaugh era is drying up a bit now. Once Ambry graduates we'll be without an established stud for the first time in quite a while. Hope DGW and Seldon grow up fast and live up to their top 200 ratings!

Safety play will be huge in…

Safety play will be huge in this game. We'll need the proper balance of support in keeping short passes and potential chunk runs contained, but also not getting beat over the top (or busting coverage ala the Metellus/Hawkins mixup that left KJ Hamler unchallenged to the end zone). Do that and get a B or better performance from the offense and this should be a comfortable win.

QB: McCaffrey (RS Jr.) OR…

QB: McCaffrey (RS Jr.) OR Milton (RS So.)
RB: Haskins (RS So.) OR Charbonnet (So.)
WR1: Black (Sr.)
WR2: Bell (Jr.)
Slot: Sainristil (So.)
TE: McKeon (5th) OR Eubanks (5th) (won't both be 5th year? I'd assume we get at least one back)
LT: Hayes (RS So.) OR Stueber (RS Jr.)
LG: Spanellis (5th)
C: Ruiz (Sr.)
RG: Filiaga (RS Jr.) OR Rumler (RS Fr.)
RT: Mayfield (RS So.)

DE: Paye (Sr.)
DT: Hinton (So.)
DT: Dwumfour (5th) OR Jeter (Jr.) (not sure of Dwumfour's status)
DE: Hutchinson (Jr.)
WILL: Ross (RS Jr.)
MIKE: McGrone (RS So.)
Viper: Barrett (RS So.) OR Solomon (RS Fr.)
CB1: Thomas (Sr.)
FS: D Hill (So.)
SS: Hawkins (Sr.)
CB2: Gray (RS So.)

The scary parts are OL continuity, DT, and secondary depth. Ambry Thomas would be the biggest potential loss of any feasible early entry to the NFL on the roster. Only viper, OL, and of course QB will be major changes. Anyone else stepping in has seen enough time to appear viable at worst. This group won't have a ton of time to gel starting @Washington and then facing a gauntlet in weeks 4-7 (Wisconsin, Penn State, @Sparty, @Minnesota). If they can escape 6-1 through that stretch, Michigan should roll into Columbus to play another edition of The Game for all the marbles.

Missed most of my senior…

Missed most of my senior year's games after tearing my Achilles in August. Was still in a walking boot in early November for my first full tailgate and game at the Big House that year. Leg felt pretty terrible for a couple days after; also, we lost.

This is Brian's best score…

This is Brian's best score prediction in some time IMO

My head says there's a loss…

My head says there's a loss between @Wisconsin/@Penn Sate/ND and we roll into "The Game" week 10-1. My heart can't predict a win in that one anymore until I see it, but I'll be in the Big House supporting the boys in blue on November 30th.

Only time I've ever been on the field there was after 2011 OSU and would very much like another chance to do so.

Hard to rag on OSU for…

Hard to rag on OSU for having a blip without a premier opponent. They just wrapped up series with Virginia Tech (14 and 15) and Oklahoma (16 and 17) and have upcoming home and homes with Oregon (20 and 21), Notre Dame (22 and 23), Washington (24 and 25), and Texas (25 and 26). There's plenty of reasons to hate the Buckeyes, but being afraid to schedule OOC is not really one of them.

Play these:

Boise State - 2…

Play these:

  • Boise State - 2 for 1? I'd enjoy seeing us on the blue turf in a weird week 1 Friday nighter
  • FAU - putting up a 50 or 60 burger on Lane Kiffin would be fun
  • Iowa State - generally non-threatening, in Midwest, why not?
  • Louisville - decent and local enough
  • LSU - would be a blast (looking for an excuse to check out a game in Baton Rouge), and a huge series nationally
  • TCU - solid program, potentially wacky uniform combination, still would expect a W

Who Cares: Arkansas State, Charlotte, Coastal Carolina, East Carolina, FIU, Fresno State, Georgia Southern, Georgia State, Kent State, Liberty, Louisiana Tech, Louisiana-Lafayette, Louisiana-Monroe, Marshall, New Mexico, New Mexico State, North Texas, Ohio, Old Dominion, San Jose State, South Alabama, Southern Mississippi, Temple, Texas State, Texas Tech, Troy, Tulsa, UAB, Utah State, UTEP, UTSA, Western Kentucky, and Wyoming

Nah, I'm Good: Clemson

This is good news long-term …

This is good news long-term -- short-term I'll be very disappointed if we don't get full previews of the B1G schools as he hadn't gotten there yet. SBNation is trash and Godfrey's odd holier-than-thou Southern schtick is beyond tiresome on PAPN. Nobody is more elitist about his personal journalism or certain school/towns' football culture than that guy, forget whatever his opinions about the actual games and teams may be in a given season.

Here's to hoping Connelly lands at a superior outlet that gives him more room and resources to do his thing. Count me slightly nervous he leans even more into the NFL though, as his dalliances there were interesting but I'd rather they don't take too much of his time away from college.

My List:

1. Donovan
2…

My List:

1. Donovan
2. Other pipedream-ish candidates we're all writing off
3. Howard
4. Yaklich
5. Washington
6. PAIN

Football would be cathartic…

Football would be cathartic. Basketball euphoric. It's football, though.

He had a defense at LSU…

He had a defense at LSU because of the sheer athletic talent available there. He won't bring that talent with him to Kansas.