Resources: My charting, IU game notes, IU roster, CFBstats, Last Year

The film: In preseason I was under the impression the whole point of playing Indiana in Week 11 was so I could gather data on Ohio State while pretending to do film analysis on some poor sods trying to climb back from hiring Mike DeBord. Unfortunately their blowout loss to OSU was some time ago, and in the interim their freshman phenom quarterback/fount of much phrasing Michael Penix went out for the year. When that crested the Hoosiers were a top 15 offense, far too good to give the MSU treatment. So last Saturday against Penn State it is. We'll just have to try to enjoy the evolving Michigan scores as they appear in the clips.

Personnel: My diagram:

PDF version, full-size version (or click on the image)

With Penix out, velociraptor-eyed QB Peyton Ramsey (+7/-2, –1 pass pro event I put on him in this game) reclaims the starting job his coaches have been trying to wrest from his Tyrannosaurus arm going back to their recruitment of Richard Lagow. Ramsey is already second (with 153 yards) in team rushing to burly former Rutgers commit RB Stevie Scott (+4.5/-3, 4.79 YPC and 9 TDs this year), who got to 4.5 the hard way: a pile of half points doled out for churning would-be 2nd and 10s into 2nd and 8s. The negatives he accumulated for spurning gaps frontside gaps without people in them for more chances to burrow into linebacker chest cavities. When he does get some space though he's a good one-cut back who generates momentum quickly and won't relinquish it without a powerful demonstration of Newtonian physics. He doesn't cede enough snaps to backup RB Ronnie Walker (3.31 YPC) or top-200 freshman Sampson James (2.67) for me to get a read on either of them by those stats say a thing.

The other injury we're watching is the possible concussion to leading/slot receiver Whop Philyor (863 yards, 10.2 YPT, 72% catch rate), who's doing to everyone this year what he did last year just to Michigan State. The head injury that knocked him out of the PSU game did give us a chance to see freshman Slot David Ellis (134 yds, 7.9 YPT, 71% CR), a Macomb County native who had previously committed to Central Michigan over Michigan State. He's no Whop, but he can play—in fact they have him play running back (or "running back") in their five-wide sets quote often.

It is somewhat odd that star WR Nick Westbrook (387 yards, 9 YPT, 72% CR) has fewer targets, yards, and lower tempo-free stats than nominally non-starting WR Ty Fryfogle (502 yds, 9.8 YPT, 75% CR), who has fulfilled my prophesy last year that he would pass nominally 1st string senior WR Donavan Hale (367 yds, 11.5 YPT, 66% CR). It's odder still that no-block TE Peyton Hendershot (444 yards, 10.1 YPT, 82% CR, and +6.5/-6, –2 pass pro in my charting this game) has one more target than Westbrook and a dozen more than Hale. Backup TE Matt Bjorson (+1/-1, –1 pass pro) is a blocker only.

The offensive line has an injury to blame too, though the first thing you may remember about LT Coy Cronk is that Chase Winovich and Rashan Gary once fought over turns to line up across from ol' Turnstile. However bad Cronk was since starting as a freshman, he probably would be a major upgrade on true freshman LT Matthew Bedford (+4.5/-1, –14.5!!!!!) who challenged MSU RT Jordan Reid's week-old, Chase Young-induced record for worst pass protection day in an FFFF chart. Bedford, for you podcast listeners, is the guy Jamie called out this week. Bedford is solid in the run game—his one minus was for tripping once. His opposite, RT Caleb Jones (+3.5/-3, –3.5) is biglargehuge indeed—the guy played basketball for Lawrence Central at over 400 pounds. As the charting suggests he's Indiana's Zangief: murder if he ever gets his hands on you, and not likely to do so.

The interior gave up a surprising amount of pass rush until you recall Robert Windsor was involved. C Hunter Littlejohn (+1/-4, –3 pass pro) reclaimed the job they found a grad transfer to take from him last year, and still looks like a good reason to hit the grad transfer market. Littlejohn at least had a better day than RG Simon Stepaniak (+1/-4.5, –5 pass pro), who's reportedly been much better than that this season, and evidently hasn't cleaned up the more Spartan-ish side of his game. LG Harry Crider (+1/-7, –4.5 pass pro) is the universally acknowledged weak link of the offense, and a major reason the running game has all but vanished this season.

[Hit THE JUMP and I'll say Whop Philyor again.]

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Spread, Pro-Style, or Hybrid? Very very spread. The personnel is almost always either 11 or 12, with the occasional 01 (a slot receiver in for the running back). But they'll typically go to an empty set where the running back and tight end are also wide receivers.

I'm going to break up the formation chart differently because Indiana operated so much of their offense out of those empty sets. Note "Offset" is that half-pistol alignment that I normally file as a shotgun. Putting the back there gives him more of a downhill angle, which is a better fit for the skills of a big back like Scott. Two steps of momentum for him is worth way more than a better angle to run outside.

Pure pistol was charted separately.

As for the actual formations, they use a lot of flexed tight ends and running backs, often not so much to test the linebackers' ability to play safety as the cornerbacks' ability to stand up to blocking from tight ends and the tight end-sized running back.

Basketball on Grass or MANBALL? Inside zone is the base running play. I caught a lot of what I labeled "Borges Zone Read" which is when the quarterback looks like he's reading the backside end that the offensive tackle is kicking anyways. I guess you could also call it "split zone without the surprise." When they did do any zone reading the play was usually Belly, another backside run. They pair these backside runs with RPO screens to keep the OLBs away and try to get Scott going downhill into a linebacker. They may not believe they can block frontside gaps with this crew.

Hurry it up or grind it out? Pretty grindy. Ramsey has seen a lot of football so he's in there making checks a lot. They'll wind the clock down to 2 seconds or less often. They also huddle sometimes. Huddle and rush to the line.

Quarterback Dilithium Level (Scale: 1 [Navarre] to 10 [Denard]): Ramsey supplanted his first competition at IU quarterback—Richard Lagow—precisely because he brings a running dimension to the offense. That said, he doesn't keep it that often and often his reads are fake. His designed carries in this game were sneaks and a designed run where he dusted Jan Johnson. But where he lacks in Dilithium he makes up for by being a ferret in the pocket at times. You recall the opening drive last year when he was sacked then got up and ran for a first down. Penn State thought they had ol' wiggly here too:

He is a six.

HenneChart: I should have thought of reusing the old years' charts years ago.

Note the pressure metric, the highest I've charted this year. Last year Ramsey was neck and neck with Dwayne Haskins for shortest depth of original target, and there's a good three-yard difference between him and Penix this year. The pressure is part of it sure, but he also has a limited arm. So they run a lot of screens and easy dinks to spread-out receivers, and go long with lobs not darts. Because of this limitation Ramsey has to make decisions more quickly than your howitzers, because a beat later this window is a gift-wrapped pick six:

Zook/Frames Janklin/Him Jarbaugh Factor: I present the following without comment…

…except to remind you that the Power of Frames absolutely has a proximity effect.

Dangerman: Throw a ball into Bloomington airspace and call 500 any time in the last 15 years and two or three hulking large objects—plus one extremely tiny one—will suddenly appear to battle for it. The IU receiver line continues unabated this year mostly because two potential departures decided to stick around.

The one that makes no sense is Nick Westbrook, especially since they're not giving him the ball very much this year either. The smooth downfield threat who was five yards short of 1,000 as a true sophomore in 2016 has seen his numbers regress even further in this, his second year back from the lost season. You remember him from the one thing Indiana did on offense at all that year:

I remember him catapulting past various Buckeyes in last year's charting only to see Ramsey fail to do the same with a football. I don't think the injury is lingering; mostly I think he's the guy defenses will cover first and this offense is geared to attack the lowest hanging fruit. That leaves Nick the Tarik Black of the current receiving quad, except he's always on the field because they run so many screens and Wesbrook is the best blocker of the group.

The Nico Collins is Ty Fryfogle (called it!), that rare escapee from Mississippi, who has mastered the art of Hoosier receiving:

And is turning out to be a fair blocker himself. As for the Ronnie Bell, what do you think the chances are that a 5'11"/178 slot bug from Florida named Mister Elias De'Angelo Philyor who goes by "Whop" because he liked going to Burger King as a kid would turn out to be an MGoBlog fave-rave even if he couldn't do this:

Whop left the game under concussion protocol last week after taking what I thought was an open-shut targeting and the refs determined was a gentle tap on the facemask which resulting fumble that Penn State recovered totally wasn't caused because the ballcarrier had been knocked unconscious. IU put him on the depth chart in the game notes released on Tuesday, but we probably won't know until Saturday if he's cleared.

Also their kicker is automatic, has expanded his range to 50, and is in the running for the Groza, and their Aussie punter is among the best in the league at placing the ball inside the 10.

OVERVIEW:

Exchanging Mike DeBord for Kalen DeBoer appears to have been an excellent idea—despite THAT offensive line, they're up to 13th in S&P+, five spots ahead of Wisconsin. Which…um… So yeah, a big part of that was Penix whom PFF had 7th in the country in adjusted (no screens) completion percentage.

**79.8% for Coan.

6. Kedon Slovis, USC: 79.6% (8.8)
7. Michael Penix, Indiana: 79.5% (10.2)
8. Anthony Gordon, Wash St.: 79.3% (7.5)
9. Jalen Hurts, Oklahoma: 78.9% (11.0)
9. Justin Fields, Ohio State: 78.9% (13.0)

— Cam Mellor (@PFF_Cam) November 20, 2019

You'll note of course that Ramsey is 3rd, but look at the differential in average depth of target. Penix was slinging it like Jalen Hurts; Ramsey is dinking it like Jack Coan. Dinking it to a stellar cast, yes, and dinking it two yards further than last year's average, true. But you'll quickly get both used to and annoyed by the number of quick passes made just before the pass rushers are about to hit home, and numbed by the screens. That's when DeBoer gets you:

Massive coverage busts in this game accounted for passes of 46, 42, 39, and 38 yards. The 46-yarder was on a 4th and 6 with 25 seconds and no timeouts left. That's how IU put up 371 passing yards and 6.42 YPP against Penn State. Ohio State's generational defense on the other hand kept them under 4 YPP, Michigan State's flawed squad kept them to 5 YPP (and won), and Northwestern held them to five and half. The fades to Fryfogle et al. and the broken tackle chunks from Whop are annoying, but IU really needs the wide open bombs against verts to make their numbers, which have been coming this year against the likes of Ball State, Eastern Illinois (FCS), UConn (126th), Rutgers, Maryland, and Nebraska. They've yet to crest 100 yards rushing against a live defense, and yet to play a secondary close to Michigan's level since the one that could wish for a puppy and ~POOF~ they now own your puppy.

I'm not saying this game will make sense—as per tradition our visit to Bloomington will be frustrating and stupid as always. But I do think Michigan matches up well here. Michigan's weakness at defensive tackle isn't something they're at all built to attack. Michigan's combination of experienced safeties and NFL-bound cornerbacks who've been taught to play doubles and zone defense isn't indefatigable, but a screen-dink-dink-VERTS! outfit helmed by a light-armed quarterback would hardly be my first choice of offenses to take into battle against Brown's latest squad. That's next week's opponent.