[Patrick Barron]

Preview 2020: Cornerback Comment Count

Brian October 22nd, 2020 at 5:20 PM

Previously: The Story. Podcast 12.4A, 12.4B, 12.4C. Quarterback. Running Back. Wide Receiver. Tight End. Interior OL. Offensive Tackle. Defensive End. Defensive Tackle. Linebacker.

Depth Chart

Boundary Corner Yr. Field Corner Yr. Nickelback Yr.
Vincent Gray So.* Gemon Green So.* Andre Seldon Fr.
DJ Turner II Fr.* Sammy Faustin So.* Dax Hill So.
Darion Green-Warren Fr. Jalen Perry Fr.* Brad Hawkins Sr.

Well, crap. We're back.

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There are kids in college who don't remember a point where cornerback was a bonafide problem for Michigan football. The last time Michigan gave more than one start to a guy who wasn't at least a fringe NFL player was 2014(!), when Raymon Taylor got passed midseason by a sophomore Jourdan Lewis. The only guys to go undrafted since, Channing Stribling and Lavert Hill, was second-team and first-team All Big Ten, respectively.

It's been a terrific run. And now it's under serious threat. After Ambry Thomas decided not to opt back in it's been scramble time. First there was a ton of talk about moving Dax Hill to corner. Reasonable! He's a five star. He can hack it. The biggest problem with that is that he is so dynamic that moving him to corner might reduce his impact.

Then Hill went back to safety and Sammy Faustin moved to corner. He might start.

Redshirt freshman Sammy Faustin has switched positions from safety to corner within “the last week" and is in the mix to start on Oct. 24 at Minnesota.

Slam that panic button.

[After THE JUMP: uhhhhhhh]

CORNERBACK: SCRAMBLE TIME

RATING: 2

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Gray needs to improve, now [Bryan Fuller]

With Ambry Thomas gone, Michigan's undisputed #1 corner is VINCENT GRAY [recruiting profile]. QED:

That's quite a rise for a guy who was headed to Mizzou until Michigan flipped him late in the process. Unlike the rest of the guys mentioned in this post, Gray got a lot of positive talk immediately…

[Gray] “has been balling” and “has shown a willingness to hit.” ... has been getting run with the twos lately over his higher-rated freshman position-mates.

…and started paying that off last year when he was the #3 corner, seeing a couple hundred snaps. His first tests came against Iowa, which went fairly well:

Vincent Gray got targeted on a couple of fades, which went okay. Both of them were underthrown. This was beneficial on one, but not the other. On the beneficial one it looks like he's beat by a step or two; the underthrow gives him a chance to recover:

He gets his head around there but ends up missing the ball as he tries to bat it. The second was a near-identical situation except the ball was even more underthrown. Gray again gets his head around—sort of—but gets hit with a flag:

If Gray makes contact with his arm does he get away with this? Kind of feels like yes. The referee closest to this doesn't throw his flag, only the back judge does.

Gray getting put in trail position isn't as good as, you know, running the route for the guy and intercepting. [ED: which Lavert Hill did in this game] Finding the ball on both is a positive.

But it did not last. You may remember this remarkable PFF stat that snuck Gray in at the end of a list of great Michigan corners:

That is hallowed company. The grading around these parts was nowhere near as optimistic. The ensuing game against Illinois did not go nearly as well. He picked up a –6, with eight negatives. This guy who is not Josh Imhatorbebe gave him the business by selling a fade Gray overplayed:

And against Notre Dame there were clear differences between Ambry Thomas and Gray's coverage on similar routes:

Okay but why does Gray get hit with minuses for Claypool completions and Thomas doesn't?

I generally throw up my hands when a very well covered receiver gets a pinpoint throw. If the offense executes perfectly, you lose. Catches against Thomas were of this variety. ND's conversion on their first drive saw Thomas in perfect position with his head around and then the throw is high, away, and just accurate enough for Claypool to stab a foot in a couple inches from the sideline:

By contrast this completion on Gray is three yards further inside and well within an area where you'd like your CB to get a play on the ball or at least be able to harass the catch. Gray doesn't really and gets fortunate that Claypool drops this unmolested:

Thomas is getting a PBU there if he plays it like he did on the one where he gives up the catch.

Ambry got hit again later in the game on a similar play where I mean… okay. You win.

CB #1 to bottom

I'm not negging a guy for that even if we tend to default to results around here.

Gray's other minus came on a play where he picked up a PI and Claypool still made the catch; he neither gets his head around or plays shoryuken on the ball.

CB #31

There are a lot of throws Thomas defends; Gray got a couple that were defensible and didn't get defensed. That why Thomas got some modest positives an Gray got negatives.

After that Gray was used more sparingly. He did have a +2 bit of coverage against Maryland:

Other than that he didn't come in for anything that got clipped after Notre Dame.

Meanwhile Gray was not Ambry Thomas against the run. One of last year's weirdest subplots was Ambry Thomas, Edge Assassin. Gray… was not an edge assassin. This popped up immediately against Middle Tennessee, when he was incredibly passive on two bubble screens:

CB #31 to top

He did get in a couple sticks when MTSU neglected to block him. Later he airballed an important tackle against Illinois, losing leverage. This an Area For Improvement.

I know this has been rather grim so far. The good news is that there's every reason to expect Gray will improve a lot. He was just a redshirt freshman a year ago. At the same point in Thomas's career people were a little worried about him. Lavert Hill was still being mentioned in press conferences as the guy who bites on all double moves and explodes. The talk from inside the program has been quality. Zordich:

"You just watch him move, physically he has—he’s a very gifted guy, and you just watch his movements and you’re like, ‘Wow.’ Now he’s putting it all together with his play. It’s pretty impressive. I mean, the sky’s the limit for that kid.”

I'd like it a lot more if the second corner spot wasn't a sack of cats and Gray had fended off some guys. I still think it's reasonable to expect the Gray from 2019 doesn't look much like the 2020 version and that he rounds into a solid Big Ten corner.

But he's not #3 anymore.

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Green is a nose ahead [Patrick Barron]

Opposite Gray will be SOMEBODY WHO MAKES YOU A BIT NERVOUS. If there was a clear solution here Michigan wouldn't have swapped two different safeties into this spot. Best guess is that there's rotation here unless someone starts performing. Based on the talk the first opportunity should go to GEMON GREEN [recruiting profile].

Green, a mid-four-star, was proclaimed the "leader in the clubhouse" by Don Brown a couple weeks ago. That implies a level of certainty that all other talk about the cornerbacks refutes, but if I had to guess I'd say he's the pick. Josh Ross appeared to name the starting secondary a few days ago, including Green with the three sure things.

Green has rarely gotten on the field in meaningful time—his most notable on-field event was getting dusted by Tarik Black in the 2018 spring game—so it's back to people talking abouts stuff. Brown:

"Gemon Green has really played well. He’s a guy that’s been with us for a period of time, has always had the athletic ability. Conceptually, he’s kind of put it all together so we feel really good about him,"

There is upside here. Green takes from after his enrollment usually said things that implied he was athletic but not quite there. Last year Webb said that Gray's rise "hasn't been a matter of athletic upside"—Green has more. Lorenz this fall:

Green is among the players the Michigan staff has been hoping the light would go on for most. … Sam mentioned in our podcast last week about inconsistency being the deal-breaker for Green thus far but the consensus is that he is potentially elite from a physical standpoint.

Mike Sainristil also painted the picture of a guy who has physical talent but has had a lot of practice dorfs so far in his career:

He's just become way more confident in himself. Just lining up with confidence, walking with confidence. I just feel like he feels good in his own body.

Recruiting takes also captured this, and in a little more detail:

…needs to refine his technique as a cornerback and eliminate the mental mistakes in coverage. Because he is so athletic, he's been known to overreact and overcommit to well-run routes which gets him into trouble on double moves.

Despite this EJ Holland, then a 247 Texas analyst, continually beat the drum for Green:

Green frustrated wide receivers all day with his height, length and athleticism. A true cover corner, Green has a knack for making plays on the ball. … makes up ground in a hurry and plays the ball well.

So: ton of upside, good athleticism, probably still liable to getting torched if there's an ongoing battle with guest safeties. No spring data. Your guess is as good as mine. If all else fails Michigan might be able to stick him on the outside and dare folks to win with fades.

BACKUPS

Harbaugh mentioned four guys competing to start opposite Gray. The folks other than Green are DJ TURNER II [recruiting profile], SAMMY FAUSTIN [recruiting profile], and JALEN PERRY [recruiting profile]. Before Green was the leader, Turner and Perry were the leaders, and then Faustin got added to the mix last week. This is our concern, dude.

TURNER is this site's guess for the #3 CB. He drew some practice hype last year from Sam:

They’ve been really impressed with DJ Turner. A very technically sound youngster that picks things up quick. Based on what I’ve heard in the last week or so I think he stands a good chance of winning the fourth corner spot.

There was no fourth corner spot, but that might be in large part because Turner was beset by injury last fall. His recruitment was more encouraging than his ranking, as he is another guy Michigan recruited like he was the #1 guy on their board. Also:

Turner's recruitment was one of the weirdest of the cycle. He fielded a ton of big offers, several of which seemed committable. He posted the #20 SPARQ at the Opening, which of course has a big swath (about 80) of the top recruits in the country. He played at North Gwinnett, a power in Georgia's largest class, and IMG. And he went virtually unscouted and ended up ranked as a middling three star by the two sites that bother to explain themselves.

A crappy 40 appears to be the main reason that he wasn't more highly rated. If he can patch that up with some college S&C he could be a find. Turner has been mentioned more often than anyone other than Green over the course of the last year. The Faustin move does give some pause.

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he's the one with dreads [Bryan Fuller]

Meanwhile FAUSTIN was on the fast train to nowhere city last year since the apparent spring depth chart featured two different walk-ons in front of him. He did start generating some positive takes as a safety this fall. Brown said he was "dramatically improved". He apparently spent a big chunk of his spring doing, well, this:

Now he's at corner. This isn't entirely out of the blue. Faustin was a high school corner who projected to safety in college because he is big—a full 6'2"—and doesn't have ideal athleticism. Webb mentioned that they were thinking about this move last year because he "has football speed and impressive length."

If this goes as well as it possibly can this switch will be like the one Jeremy Clark undertook a few years back. Clark was an athletic 6'3" safety who had too many busts to be playable there. At corner he lined up in man, attempted to take away everything but fades, and then swatted those fades away. It was good enough to get him drafted late despite missing most of his senior year with an injury.

PERRY was a consensus four-star corner out of high-level Georgia football. Recruiting analysts had wildly divergent takes on his athleticism but believed he was heady and relatively polished player. Radio silence about him seemed like a pretty bad sign. Harbaugh did just mention him as one of four guys competing for the starting slot, but there was very little about him all last year.

The Faustin move and his apparent spot on or near the two-deep is bad news for the immediate future of the other guys on the roster, all of whom are some variety of freshman. GEORGE JOHNSON III [recruiting profile] got a redshirt last year. He was a high school quarterback originally recruited to be a slot receiver. He only moved to corner for bowl practices. He'd be doing very well to be on the radar at this point.

There are also three true freshmen. Like Johnson, EAMONN DENNIS [recruiting profile] is an offensive player who got swapped to defense because Michigan has slot receivers coming out its ears. He'll need at least a year to polish. Brown claimed a 4.38 for him, which would be nice.

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nice marmot

The other two guys have some shot at playing time. ANDRE SELDON [recruiting profile] has everything you want in a cornerback except for the ability to go on rides at Cedar Point. He's 5'8". Despite that glaring deficiency the sites shot him up their rankings over the course of the cycle; Seldon did every camp, took on every challenge, and eventually won over even the NFL-draft-obsessed 24/7:

exceptional positional skills, instincts, competitive qualities and an all around feel and savvy for the game … big vertical and good make-up speed. … If height was a concern, then his battles with Julian Fleming and mountainous tight end Darnell Washington quelled those concerns. Seldon was arguably the best defensive back [at the UA game] … room for smaller cornerbacks if they have exceptional qualities outside of size and Seldon has those.

Seldon would be pretty easy to drop in at the nickel spot if a need becomes clear.

Finally, DARION GREEN-WARREN [recruiting profile] is a four-star out of California who Michigan pirated away from what was supposedly a silent USC commit. Green-Warren's scouting is odd for a consensus four star since it contains many assertions he's not the fastest guy in the world; it also asserts he's one of the most polished cornerbacks in this class:

physical at the line of scrimmage … not going to let you get into your route, and he’s going to compete on the back end. …. great feet. … going to be very good on an island if he needs to be…. very good week for him [at the AA game] in terms of being consistent and being one of those corners that had his side of the field locked down, so nothing really happened.

He's outside the two-deep currently but if things crater he might get a look.

Comments

MGolem

October 22nd, 2020 at 5:35 PM ^

Stribling and Clark were lesser recruits than virtually all of the guys slated to play opposite Gray and they were both excellent college players. Not sure why there is so much talk of doom. Zordich may be a lackluster recruiter but he can certainly coach the position. 

skatin@the_palace

October 22nd, 2020 at 5:50 PM ^

Exactly my thoughts. Letting an athlete like Green bake for a few years under Zordich with guys like Lavert and Ambry ahead of him, would make it seem like he'd have a higher ceiling even if he is an unknown. You can have success as a very good athlete without great technique and you can also get by as a lesser athlete with great technique. As long as we're not rolling Brandon Watson types out against drag routes I'm fine with the roll of the dice. 

stephenrjking

October 22nd, 2020 at 6:01 PM ^

Gray was just a guy, who happened to be at the top of the heap of just guys, when our #2 corner Thomas was iffy at the start of last season. Now he's our unquestioned #1 guy entirely by default. We've never seen anything from any of the other guys to suggest anything remotely resembling B1G-level competence, and the emergency position switches from safety are a big giant flashing warning sign. 

Sometimes it really is as bad as it looks. The only possible glimmer of positive light is that Mike Zordich is a really good secondary coach. But he has to have something to work with. Edit: The only other glimmer of hope: If things were 2009-10 awful, I'd expect someone like Darion Green-Warren to be getting more talk as a potential starter. 

stephenrjking

October 22nd, 2020 at 6:59 PM ^

The success of turnover depends heavily upon who is ready to step in and contribute. 

Vincent Gray will be fine. Not great, but fine. But he has not been remotely threatened in his standing and we're two years in. The other CBs are not at that level.

Instead, Michigan is testing emergency position changes to fortify the position.

This is not about the "perfect narrative of insider chatter." We've seen this movie before. Michigan has not recruited well at the CB position since we got Ambry, and now Ambry (and the other guys before him) are gone, and the bill has come due. 

BlueInGreenville

October 22nd, 2020 at 7:43 PM ^

The good news is we play 8 games and only one of them is against OSU.  The rest are against Big Ten opponents with no elite WRs (other than Bateman).  Also - Don Brown has had two+ months to coach these guys to play zone, and playing zone is a good idea against OSU that Don Brown has stubbornly resisted because he thought guys like Brandon Watson could cover crossing routes with guys who run 4.3s.  So it's not great, but we'll cover MSU and Indiana and Wisconsin receivers OK.  

stephenrjking

October 22nd, 2020 at 8:22 PM ^

There is, thus far, no real evidence that Brown is a remarkably apt coach of zone. He’s a man guy. He knows those defenses, knows where to direct the players, knows the counters to the counters.

He can coach the very basics of zone, just like Bill Walsh could coach the very basics of the triple option. But it’s not what he’s good at, and to this point we’ve seen nothing suggesting the mastery of that type of defense, with all its nuance and detail, that is possessed by a staff like Iowa’s. It’s just how it is.

Could there be change this year? Maybe. But we have to wait to see it. Remember, when we got torched by OSU two years ago, Michigan showed some zone looks. We still got torched. 

Rafiki

October 22nd, 2020 at 8:35 PM ^

Running zone doesn’t solve all the defense’s problems. Just like there are things that beat man there are things that beat zone. 
 

The defense doesn’t need to become a zone defense. They already incorporate some zone. What the D needs is pressure from the DL and LBs/DBs that don’t make unforced errors at critical moments and playmakers. The past 2 years they haven’t had that. 
 

 

Watching From Afar

October 22nd, 2020 at 6:09 PM ^

I don't disagree with your main point, however it's apples to oranges.

Stribling and Clark were good CBs but both were second fiddle with obvious limitations. They also weren't really good until they were upperclassmen who had snaps under their belt. Green is an upperclassman, but doesn't have experience. They also don't have the bona fide #1 across from them to allow for help if they needed it.

We don't need to be doom and gloom, but this CB group is not a top 5 unit in the Big Ten at this very moment. Will it be Rutgers terrible? No. Will it be David Long and Lavert Hill? Also no.

LeCheezus

October 22nd, 2020 at 6:16 PM ^

I’m with you man.  It’s not going to be great, but I think the talk of impending doom might be a bit overstated.  Until we play OSU of course, but they stomped us even when we had Hill and Long.  Get some pressure, mix in some zone, and it’ll probably be fine for 7 of the 8 games on the schedule.

Rafiki

October 22nd, 2020 at 5:56 PM ^

My biggest frustration with Brown is how little time younger guys get in blowouts. I feel like getting some of these guys time in games last season would’ve alleviated some of the concern. 

stephenrjking

October 22nd, 2020 at 5:58 PM ^

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Megumin

October 22nd, 2020 at 6:10 PM ^

I was terribly concerned with the CB situation, but honestly, reading this I can tolerate it. Obviously having no sure things is really bad, but there's enough upside between Green, Turner, Seldon, Perry, Green-Warren and Faustin that one or more of these guys click by the end of the season. Reminds me when everyone was panicking about Runyon Jr starting a few years back. Was a disaster in the opener at ND, but he firmed up quickly and we got a nice 2 year starter.

Not defeating the OSU death star level mind you, but giving Mike Penix Jr or Graham Mertz pause before Hutchinson and Paye eat their collective lunch. 

Mongo

October 22nd, 2020 at 6:25 PM ^

Next man up ... the CBs are not rookies but can Zordich/Brown coach a couple up into Ambry replacements?  I think the raw material is there, just need game reps.

ak47

October 22nd, 2020 at 7:10 PM ^

Its a good thing only two teams in the big ten have more than one good receiving threat because this is just a mess. No way we can try running man to man against a team like OSU this year, we can't even cover their top guy one on one with Gray, let alone 2 and 3. You don't make a position change a week before the season because its going well.

Its also a bad sign for everyone on the roster, you can put young guys out there because its an athleticism and instinct position 

NowTameInThe603

October 22nd, 2020 at 7:25 PM ^

Reading those recruiting profiles is really unsettling. Every single one references that said recruit may be better suited at safety. At least one has a mention of Brown saying he just wants to bring in defensive backs.

Again, if Don Brown cant hold OSU to under 40 points this year it should be over for him. 

stephenrjking

October 22nd, 2020 at 8:26 PM ^

Maybe. “40” is a pretty tough absolute number to just throw out there before the season.

But I do think this year is make-or-break for Brown. We appear to have significant weaknesses at CB and DT. We aren’t dripping with 5-star athletes. He has to coach the guys up, and he has to find a way to limit the best teams even if we have some weakness against them.

If he can’t do that, we need to look a different direction. If he can, he’s earning his spot with an uneven roster. 

MGoStrength

October 22nd, 2020 at 7:41 PM ^

Which is worse, fast and athletic but makes mistakes (Green) or not that fast but polished and heady (Warren-Green)? I'll take fast and athletic early on hoping he makes fewer mistakes time goes on.

Away Goal

October 22nd, 2020 at 10:00 PM ^

I think the real question that needs to be answered is why do our CB's wear those little white ankle bootie socks?  It gives them a more unathletic look.  Ambry broke the trend, but he gone.

lhglrkwg

October 22nd, 2020 at 10:19 PM ^

In a vacuum, I would have faith the DL would be fine and I would have faith the secondary would be fine. Both of them being questionable at once seems like it could have a compounding effect. When a DL is great, it can make your back 7 look awesome because QBs are under pressure so much. With questionable DTs and questionable CBs, I’m a little afraid we might be shocked how bad the pass D looks at least early in the season

Collateral Whiz

October 22nd, 2020 at 10:32 PM ^

"The other two guys have some shot at playing time. ANDRE SELDON has everything you want in a cornerback except for the ability to go on rides at Cedar Point."

And now I'm wiping the tea I spit out off my monitor.  

Brandon Swatson

October 22nd, 2020 at 10:52 PM ^

Maybe I'm the outlier here but I really think concerns over CB play might be overstated. We did the same thing when Vincent Gray became a starter and it wasn't that bad. I'd be more concerned if we didn't have a small pool of four star recruits to pick from.

Snazzy_McDazzy

October 23rd, 2020 at 12:18 AM ^

I might actually be a little more worried about cornerback than I am about defensive tackle. At DT, we have one player who is on a natural breakout track in Chris Hinton (though nothing is guaranteed) and we have experienced players who could certainly be rounding into form. It's not sexy but it would also be shocking if Kemp wasn't better and if some good things didn't emerge from the Hinton/Jeter/Speight/Welschof/Smith group.

On the other hand, Vincent Gray should be good as the #1 corner but he has to make a sizeable leap from last season and was not highly recruited. Gemon Green has the talent but mental mistakes can kill you at cornerback. After that, is D.J. Turner ready to be a stud in his first healthy season? I'm not buying into Jalen Perry or Sammy Faustin, at least not for this season. Andre Seldon should be good to go but he is still a true freshman. George Johnson has big-time potential but is a year away at least. Same with Dennis. I *think* we'll be fine at cornerback but the margin of error is small.

Don

October 23rd, 2020 at 1:14 AM ^

Charles Woodson was a historic, once-in-a-lifetime talent, but in '97 he was greatly helped by a Michigan DL that featured three guys who played in the NFL—Glen Steele, Josh Williams, and James Hall—and a fireplug NT in Rob Renes who was All-American in his senior season. Those four consistently made life miserable for opposing QBs that year. 

If the opposing QBs had all day to throw, winning the Heisman is a much more difficult task, but maybe Woodson could have pulled it off. However, there's no way in hell that Michigan goes undefeated, wins the conference title, and snags a share of the NC if Michigan gets just a workmanlike performance from the DL that season. 

It's no different this year. We need difference making performances across the DL, not just the ends, if our inexperienced secondary is to have any hope of playing well enough to compete for the conference title.

Joby

October 23rd, 2020 at 3:01 AM ^

If you squint, you could see a good DL this year. Renes was a sophomore in ‘97, flanked by two senior ends that were both 270+ and a very good finisher in James Hall. If Hinton hits, re-enacts half of the 97 Renes role and someone like Vilain pays off all the subsequent disruption, we’ll be in business.