Previously: The Story. Podcast 12.4A, 12.4B, 12.4C. Quarterback. Running Back. Wide Receiver. Tight End. Interior OL. Offensive Tackle.

  Depth Chart

ANCHOR	Yr.	NOSE TACKLE	Yr.	3-TECH	Yr.	OPEN-SIDE END	Yr.
Aidan Hutchinson	Jr.	Carlo Kemp	Sr.*	Chris Hinton	Fr.*	Kwity Paye	Sr.
Taylor Upshaw	So.*	Donovan Jeter	Jr.*	Mazi Smith	Fr.*	Luiji Vilain	Jr.*
Gabe Newburg	Fr.*	Jess Speight	So.*	Julius Welschof	So.*	David Ojabo	Fr.*

Because of certain personnel deficiencies on last year's defense Michigan's defensive ends had to play defensive tackle at the same time they were playing on the outside. They did an admirable job in a difficult situation. Now they're down the third amigo—CMU transfer and draftee Mike Danna—but return two All Big Ten players. Both are getting the kind of hype that could land them high in the next NFL draft.

Depth is a little sketchy, but the main question here is how much they'll be able to trust the guys on the interior and get after it.

Note that Don Brown says that Paye is the "open-side end" and Hutchinson is the anchor. The distinction between these two spots was minimal last year and will be minimal again.

OPEN-SIDE END: DENSE

RATING: 4.5.

small state, large man [Patrick Barron]

A few years ago, a certain kind of recruitnik was big mad when Don Brown turned his attention to a rando from Rhode Island. Michigan had a half-dozen higher-rated defensive ends on the hook and no one on earth had heard of KWITY PAYE. Fast forward a few years and Paye is leading Bruce Feldman's "freaks" list:

1. Kwity Paye, Michigan, defensive end

Freakiest attribute: Speed in the 3-cone drill

…has generated a lot of buzz among the NFL scouting community for some remarkable wheels. He clocked the second-best 3-cone time on the team at a blistering 6.37 seconds, which would have topped anyone at the 2020 combine. Paye’s 40 is also moving at 4.57, with a solid 34-inch vertical and 30 reps on the bench press. Paye’s 40 time and 4.15 pro shuttle time are better than any D-lineman or edge player who tested at the 2020 combine. … rare blend of strength, control and balance

The last time Michigan had  guy lead that list it was Rashan Gary, the #1 recruit in the country. Paye was the #1 recruit… in Rhode Island. Moral of the story is that if Don Brown finds a guy in Podunk, NH you nod and smile.

[After THE JUMP: and then there's the guy I'm higher on]

The Freaks list was only one part of a groundswell of Paye NFL hype this offseason. He landed in the top half of PFF's first round mock draft. The Athletic's Dane Brugler ranked him the #2 DE for the 2021 draft…

… explosive twitch and competitive … launches out of his stance with the lower body athleticism to run the arc or drive blockers on their heels. His athleticism is also clear in the run game, using his lateral quickness and change of direction skills to mirror the ball up and down the line of scrimmage.

Paye put together a dominant performance on last season’s Iowa tape, posting 2.5 sacks. Lined up at right defensive end vs. left tackle Alaric Jackson, Paye pounces off the snap and stays square in his approach, not tipping his hand.

…and Mel Kiper put him fifth. That is a metric ton of hype for a guy with solid but not amazing numbers (50 tackles, 12.5 TFLs, 6.5 sacks)

Your author doesn't entirely buy this. Please stop throwing rotten vegetables. Don't get me wrong: Paye is an All Big Ten DE easy. He's an excellent run defender and contributes to Michigan's pass rush in the right system. He will be drafted relatively early and have a productive NFL career.

What this space objects to is the sugarplum fantasies induced when you've got a senior defensive end checking in at #1 on the Freaks list. At no point in Paye's career has he gotten a traditional edge rush with any frequency. Last year's preview referred to him as "the guy your mom likes in the boy band" because he was consistent, responsible, and not Justin Timberlake. When Kyle Crabbs sat down to evaluate Paye for The Draft Network he was exactly on point:

PROS (+): He's dense.

If you need more he said other stuff, too, all of it correct:

… [will] effectively stack up the point of attack and hold his own against double teams to set the line of scrimmage. … power rusher in the pass game and relied on his short area explosiveness to generate power and collapse angles to create soft edges. … Rush ceiling isn't as high as his ceiling as a run defender … not going to out-reach or long-arm a lot of NFL offensive tackles … doesn't have the dynamic bend ability that so often moves the needle for EDGE defenders … first step is adequate but not going to claim him frequent wins off the snap.

Even when PFF stuck him in their top 15 they noted his "middling 77.8 pass rush grade."

Paye has some upside in this department, but edge rushers almost always announce themselves early. Even when they're underclassmen liable to get catapulted into the sideline, an edge rusher is an edge rusher from the drop. Chase Winovich and Josh Uche are recent examples of guys who clearly had it. Rashan Gary, for all his physical gifts, did not flash it early and never developed the ability to dip around the corner. Somewhat incredibly, Jadeveon Clowney is in the same boat.

Paye is in the Gary/Clowney realm. This isn't necessarily the worst thing. Michigan had an excellent pass rush last year because they were gap sound and burly:

Uche is of course a pass rush dude but he's off the field 40% of the time, Michigan barely blitzes—just 8 five-man pressures in this game versus 22 four-man rushes and 1 three-man rush—and they're not getting much from their DTs. And yet [they have the best QB knockdown rate in the country per PFF]. My best explanation for how the tweet goes with the context:

Look at that pocket. Lewerke, a guy with no protection and good mobility, had two scrambles in this game. One went for one yard. The other went for five, and that was against Michigan's only three man rush of the game (and maybe season?), when you can't staple the pocket closed nearly as well. Other scramble results against P5 teams:

• ND: scrambles for 0, 0, 1, 5, and 9 yards. Nine yarder looked to have a hold that sprung it. Another scramble did get hit for a hold.
• PSU: scrambles for 1, 1, and 5 yards.
• Iowa: none.
• Wisconsin: scrambles for 1 and 25 yards.
• Illinois: scrambles for 5, 7, and 9 yards.
• Maryland: one for 1 yard.
• Rutgers: one for 0 yards.

That's eight games in which the opponents average two scrambles per game for under 10 yards. That is great pocket integrity, especially when you are also leading the country in hitting the QB.

So it's no surprise there's a certain genre of Michigan sack this year that feels like everyone sacking the QB at once, including the OL.

So: beefy, responsible, decent pass rush DEs, more push from Kemp, and extremely responsible LBs has led a ton of situations where Michigan slams the pocket shut and almost no instances where opponents are able to productively break the pocket. And if all else fails maybe Uche puts a guy on his ass or Don Brown gets one of his LBs a free run.

Paye did occasionally bend around the corner but it was usually against the worst OTs on the schedule. Army: check. MSU: check. Indiana's backup left tackle: check. Against higher level opposition the edge rush was rare. After Notre Dame:

Are we a little concerned by the fact that Michigan has two SDEs?

Yeah, the four-man line doesn't bring a lot of pure pass rush oomph and that's another reason it's hard to get Dwumfour a lot of snaps. I don't think anyone except Uche got around the corner in this game. ND has good tackles; they're not great. Both DEs do some work, but they will not be confused with Winovich any time soon.

Where Paye did work was by running straight at guys and blowing them back. That Notre Dame game featured a snap on which Paye blasted Aaron Banks—a giant OG you may remember being a Michigan target—on his butt:

DE #19 to bottom

This is where most of Paye's pass rush work got done last year: stunts. His ability to power rush often put him in situations where there was no way for the opposition to pass him off when his initial blocker had to disengage and go for the looper. Sometimes he got pure rush wins when he dove inside:

DE #19 to bottom

You can see that Freaks List explosion there. By the time Alaric Jackson realizes he's headed inside it's far too late. Paye had another sack against Iowa on a stunt where he got stalled out initially but kept fighting and took advantage of Michigan's coverage:

The space between the tackle and guard is his office. PFF's Michael Renner has a good summary of the situation:

With his size and agility, Paye is a tall task to block slanting off the snap, and it’s a role you’d be crazy not to utilize him in. The fact that he earned quality grades with unrefined moves … The problem is that a lot of similar things were said about former teammate and first-round pick Rashan Gary, and we’ve still yet to see any tangible improvement from him in that regard.

Paye is a lot like Gary if Gary knew what his wheelhouse is. I'd expect him to get incrementally better here but still top out as a B+ team rusher. After the hype that might seem a little disappointing. It shouldn't be.

There are no qualms about Paye as a run defender. He is elite, full stop. The passage above about young pass rushers having it instantly or not at all absolutely does not apply on the ground, but here's Paye in his first career start spotting Rashan Gary and giving it to Wisconsin's offensive line:

He graded out as Michigan's best rush defender in that game. This was in fact an ominous preview of 2019; afterwards I noted he was "repeatedly driving into the backfield to constrict space and make up for the struggling DTs."

Paye's immediate proficiency there wasn't a huge surprise since Don Brown spent years yelling at passing reporters and/or birds about how much he loved Kwity Paye:

"Kwity Paye might be, technically, the best football player in the country, and I’m just sayin’. I mean, that guy, he’s hard to fool, so I have no concerns about him."

Paye paid that off. Week after week in UFR he'd show up with a line like 8-1 = +7. He went consecutive weeks with no minuses. UFR box summaries were things like "not incredible # of plays made but few or no minuses" and "Iffy personal foul, otherwise flawless." He was indeed extremely hard to fool:  

Paye has been spilling things all year and when they don't spill he's stuffing runs on the interior:

DE #19 to top

The awareness to stop, redirect, aggressively go after a guy pulling to you, and then get off to tackle is the reason Don Brown was saying things like "he's the best DE, technically, in the country" before the season. Aside from that one play against Wisconsin where there was no edge I'm not sure he's made a mistake this year.

I don't think I've seen anyone play arc better:

Paye had a bare handful of plays in which he did not do exactly what he was supposed to. He is as reliable as it is possible to be in the chaos of line play.

Take that, add in some more upside to explore, and the main thing separating Paye from All-America status will be an ability to bend around the corner. It doesn't seem likely he adds much of that; in all other ways he's an ideal DE.

ANCHOR: BOSA DEEZ NUTS

RATING: 5

arrow straight up [Patrick Barron]

Whatever your expectations for Aidan Hutchison are, rest assured that Hutchinson's family exceeds them. Hutchinson's father Chris, a Michigan defensive lineman from back in the day, talking with Sam Webb:

Sam Webb: " I swear to you that one of the things that was said to me was, 'yeah, man, he looks like he looks like the Bosas.' I swear that verbatim, that's exactly what was said to me. … "

Chris Hutchinson: "…he is relentless in practice. He sends me practice film. We go over things a little bit here and there, and the kid never stops. I mean I had a motor, but this guy is 6-6, 270 with a motor. And it's a very different feel. And honestly, I think the Bosa comparison is probably going to be fairly accurate."

All right then. And… I mean… it's a lot, but until the younger Hutchinson starts leveling off it's in the realm of possibility. It's not even a particularly distant one. Hutchinson graded out just ahead of Paye last year to PFF, at the top of returning Big Ten DL…

Highest graded returning B1G edge defenders:

1. Aidan Hutchinson, Michigan - 82.9
2. Kwity Paye, Michigan - 80.9
3. Samdup Miller, Northwestern - 78.6 pic.twitter.com/PlrHo6t7Xd

— PFF College (@PFF_College) May 5, 2020

…as a true sophomore. He has flashed that rush talent more frequently than Paye did, especially the sophomore version of Paye.

One of the things that leapt out when I went back to last year's UFRs was the Iowa game. Josh Uche got shut out by Tristan Wirfs, the #13 overall pick in the most recent NFL draft. The one Michigan player to get a pass rush win against Wirfs was in fact Hutchinson:

DE #97 to bottom

He was able to dip around the corner on occasion:

DE #97 to bottom

That is a bonafide around-at-eight-yards edge rush against a right tackle who was All Big Ten to PFF in 2018. And when Michigan lined him up at nose tackle on passing downs he flashed an ability to get interior rush:

NT #97

This was not a one-off. He'd replicate that later. MSU's center is the one semi-functional guy on that line, FWIW. He also gave the business to Illinois's interior line.

I don't want to draw too much of a contrast here. Hutchinson was in the same ballpark as Paye. After Penn State:

Michigan's DEs are both SDEs. They're good against the run and push pockets closed; nobody's getting around at eight yards. Even Hutchinson's ability to flash pass rush has mostly been on inside moves.

They work best together. This Hutchinson sack features Paye blasting the right tackle down, leaving the edge entirely open:

That will continue to be Michigan's bread and butter on passing downs.

One final note here: Hutchinson also contributed to Michigan's pass defense in an unusual fashion: with PBUs. He finished second on the team, behind only Lavert Hill, with six last year. His size helps him bat stuff down, naturally, but that's also an indicator Michigan had a lot of constricted pockets last year. The windows to throw in were relatively small and full of arms. 

Hutchinson was also Paye on the ground, more or less. He was hard to cut, sometimes hard to even get a hand on:

he's circled

His ability to explode allowed him to shut down gaps even after he'd been delayed:

DE #97 to bottom

He was even solid on the rare occasions Michigan put him at NT on a plausible running down. Third and three QB draw? Nope:

That quick rip move is something he demonstrated as a freshman and is likely to become more prominent as he gains strength.

Add it up and Hutchinson's grading was almost exactly like Paye's: a bunch of positives, almost no negatives, relatively few clips since the whole line was chipping in +0.5s and +1s as they shut down the opposition. He, too, turned in close to zero mental errors and didn't get clunked by anyone—except Wisconsin. But let's memory-hole that game.

Paye and also Paye: so why is this a 5 and Paye not a 5? Age. Hutchinson is a year younger and grading out slightly better both here and at PFF. He's likely to improve more rapidly. His ability to rip past OL, inside or out, is already beyond Paye's and there's reason to expect he'll take another significant step forward in 2020. Let's go back to dad:

He was 278-279 last year. He's 269 right now, but he has gained seven pounds of muscle. So, his body looks completely different. … they pretty much since August never stopped practicing. I heard about other schools that had some time off, and then some people had to take some time off because of some coronavirus issues, but (at Michigan) they've been going four to five days a week.

Don really loved how he did [at nose] last year. He called (Aidan) the best inside guy at that position for those certain packages that he's ever had. But Aidan was like, 'that's great, but I want to be outside.' And through a few reps and a few days Don finally came around to him and said, ‘yeah, I think we need to keep the outside this year.’  

Hutchinson was excellent as a passing-down NT last year. If Michigan is going to stick him on the outside when they've got way more depth at DE than DT, then he must be killing it in practice. Brown:

“Aidan Hutchinson at the anchor position is playing extremely well,” Brown said. “6-foot-6, maybe 6-foot-7 – I don’t know. With his hair longer, maybe 6-foot-7. 265-pounds, runs extremely well for his size. Can bend, is flexible, is a good pass rusher, is a good spread run defender. Can play the zone read – what we call the bluff concepts. And just playing at a high, high level. The big thing with him is get him to the party and let him play.”

Hutchinson is already the best returning DE in the conference and he should still blow up this year. He's got a shot at adding enough edge rush to make him all but undefendable; even if he ends up somewhat short of that he will be All-America quality.

BACKUPS

Michigan has numbers here but little experience. Two guys have separated to establish themselves on the two-deep.

Vilain (left, #18), has completed step one: don't be injured [Patrick Barron]

LUIJI VILAIN [recruiting profile] is the oldest and possesses the most recruiting hype so let's address him first. Vilain arrived as a near five-star weakside end expected to step into Chase Winovich's shoes. After two years of injuries put his career in doubt Vilain stayed healthy last year, appearing in seven games and collecting seven tackles. I clipped him giving a tight end the business (but not finding the ball) late in the Notre Dame game:

DE #18 to bottom

He didn't have many further opportunities because Michigan had three NFL DEs and Josh Uche vying for snaps. Two of those guys are gone and a dollar says Paye and/or Hutchinson will be sliding inside on passing downs, so there will be a bunch of DE snaps up for grabs. Paye is talking up Vilain as the guy to get them:

"[Liuji] has been great, you know? He's been great in the past, but this year I feel like [Luiji] is real hungry, and he has a lot to prove last year. … I feel like if there's a harder working person than me, I would say it's Luiji. He made sure he took care of himself during his injury process. …  Luiji will be on his way up."

Brown told Jon Jansen that Vilain is "playing at a higher level." That's vague. Brown predicting "productive, solid play" is more specific. It isn't exactly exciting, but it takes a while to get back up to speed after two straight years of knee injuries and a recovery year wondering when you're going to get injured again.

Vilain could be anything from a reasonable plugger to a dude in waiting. People forget that Vilain moved to the US for his last couple years of high school and was on a Hutchinson-esque blow-up track before getting hewn down. He had six hurries and three QB hits at the UA game as a senior and flew back up recruiting rankings after an adjustment period saw him slide  down:

…has taken his game to a new level this fall. He looks more explosive and stronger than a year ago. Athletically, he is still off the charts. He has great speed and changes directions fluidly. … refined his technique. Vilain is playing with better leverage, using his hands very well and has developed some moves.

He's one of the most important guys on the roster for 2021 and has a shot at one of those early Winovich/Uche years where he gets 15 extremely loud snaps per game. Brown is tempering expectations some, but Vilain has a ton of upside left to explore.

very satisfying to have a bunch of deep-bench photos against ND [Patrick Barron]

On the strongside the most talk is about TAYLOR UPSHAW [recruiting profile], the subject of this year's most Don Brown quote:

Don Brown says two of the most improved players along the defensive line have been Julius Welschof and Taylor Upshaw. Says Upshaw has gotten a lot bigger. "Taylor, he didn't even have a butt a year ago. Now he's got a butt."

— Orion Sang (@orion_sang) September 30, 2020

He is also the subject of what may be a very Shaun Nua quote, pending enough Shaun Nua quotes for a calibration:

A rather metal description of Taylor Upshaw from Shaun Nua this morning:

"He kills everything in his path, and I love it."

— Anthony Broome (@anthonytbroome) October 14, 2020

Upshaw actually lost six pounds on last year's roster, descending to 240. The most recent phonebooks have him up 16 to 256, which is still weakside end territory in a defense that requires its anchor to… uh… anchor so that the spacebacker behind him doesn't eat blocks.

In a way this is good, because Upshaw has been getting mentions here and here as a guy to watch out for even when at frankly preposterous weights. Last year Lorenz said there was a group of four guys who the staff "loves but are a year away": Hayes, Barrett, Welschof, and Upshaw. The first two look like strikes and Welschof is trending well; that's a good group to be a part of.

Upshaw was always a guy to check back in on down the road. He didn't even play football until he was a junior in high school despite having an NFL dad. This year's goal is to rotate in a bit and flash promise.

Ojabo probably has incredible twitter patter [Patrick Barron]

Redshirt freshman DAVID OJABO [recruiting profile] got stuck in Scotland for much of the summer due to coronavirus travel restrictions but managed to get back to the states in late July. And there was much rejoicing.

Per Luiji Vilain’s IG story, David Ojabo is back in the United States pic.twitter.com/COWeg5QEwL

— Zach Shaw (@_ZachShaw) July 20, 2020

Ojabo is one of those freaky athletes who are just learning to do football things. He arrived in the US intent on being a college basketball player, then was told he was very large and should try football. He did. Raw doesn't begin to cover it:

…knows very little about the game of football. In some ways, that’s a good thing because he’s a blank canvas. …stance, pad level, hand placement, tackling, and other areas of technique are all subpar compared to other players who are comparably ranked. …skilled at being big and fast. He also takes good angles.

Despite that Ojabo picked up the defensive scout team player of the year award and has been a guy Brown muses about when the Uche spot comes up.

Don Brown has brought up David Ojabo a couple times. Just asked him how Michigan might replace Josh Uche's pass-rush ability and Brown says Ojabo has a lot of similar traits.

— Orion Sang (@orion_sang) May 21, 2020

He's another candidate to have a young Uche/Winovich year where he gets a limited number of snaps, some of them eyepopping. If that doesn't happen I wouldn't get too down on Ojabo, who needed spring practice and summer workouts more than most. Between Scottish exile and quarantine he missed four months. This is a mulligan year. If it isn't, hot diggity.

Newburg is… uh… one of these guys [Patrick Barron]

Two more redshirt freshman are still on deep background. GABE NEWBURG [recruiting profile] was one of the lowest-rated guys in his class but according to Lorenz he's shot up to 270 "and absolutely looks great" a year and a half after entering the program at 237. Newburg's dad is a high school wrestling coach and Newburg did a ton of that in high school, so his scouting—such as it is—is speckled with references to low pad level. Adam's FBO take:

…impressive arm length, strength, and hand placement…consistently fires upward into offensive linemen and aims for the numbers. …footwork is an area for improvement …keeps his pads lower than the opposing offensive lineman with consistency, and he uses his hands and arm length to great effect. …rare high school defensive lineman who doesn’t  shoot up too quickly even once …has wrestled for years…

Amongst the DE backups he was the most advanced coming out of high school, and those athletic concerns get less important as he nears anchor size quickly. He's one of the bigger options down here and should start getting some run in garbage time. He's likely to be a rotation option next year, if not the starting anchor.

MIKE MORRIS [recruiting profile] is in a similar situation. An FSU legacy and decommit, he's up to 276 on the latest roster. That's good. Less good, at least for this year, is a total dearth of chatter. Part of that is injury—Brown said he "was hurt most of last year"—that prevented a developmental guy from developing. Morris projects as a DE/3T swing guy who jams it up against the run and doesn't do a whole lot of rushing, a la Chris Wormley, and will have an inflection point next year when he's 290+ and either making noise or not.

Finally, there are two true freshmen. BRAIDEN MCGREGOR [recruiting profile] has the size and recruiting hype to be an immediate contributor but is coming off a serious knee injury that cost him most of his senior year. Brown said that Michigan hasn't "really seen him at his best yet." McGregor projects as a Hutchinson clone. He really wants to play so Michigan might shoehorn him in at the Uche spot in year one; long term he's going to be a big, excellent three-down DE. JAYLEN HARRELL [recruiting profile] is a more permanent attempt at another Uche and will need some time to marinate.