Previously: The Story. Podcast 12.4A, 12.4B, 12.4C. Quarterback. Running Back.

Depth Chart

WR	Yr.	WR	Yr.	SLOT	Yr.	SPREAD H	Yr.
Ronnie Bell	Jr.	Cornelius Johnson	So.	Mike Sainristil	So.	Chris Evans	Sr.*
Roman Wilson	Fr.	Erick All	So.	Giles Jackson	So.	Giles Jackson	So.
Jake McCurry	Sr.	Nate Schoenle	Sr.*	AJ Henning	Fr.	AJ Henning	Fr.

One of the problems about writing a preview during a pandemic is sometimes you spend most of your time ranting about how the guy averaging 12.2 yards a target should get more targets, and then that guy opts out of the season. The silver lining for readers is that this post does not contain five thousand words that boil down to THROW IT TO NICO YOU BASTARDS.

When you've got three potential seniors and they all hit the eject button you're going to be a little shorthanded, and Michigan is. The good news is that Josh Gattis has been busy recruiting meep meep and some of these roadrunners are no longer freshmen.

Also the leading receiver is back, if only everyone would stop muttering about it.

[After THE JUMP: Photon crew assemble]

OUTSIDE WR: THE BELL CONUNDRUM

RATING: 3.

lot of targets like so [Bryan Fuller]

The bad news for Michigan is that Nico Collins isn't around to snatch angels away from God. The good news is that their leading receiver—and second-most efficient on a yards per target basis—is still kicking around. RONNIE BELL got fourth billing in this section last year; he led Michigan in receiving yards, pipping Collins.

That race could have been significantly more lopsided if Bell hadn't spent the season being Poor Damn Ronnie Bell. (And Collins wasn't criminally underutilized. Stay on brand.) When Bell showed up in game column bullets they were titled things like "A foot away from a monster day" and "Not quite."

This space saw a ton of throws that demanded difficult or impossible catches; others just saw drops. So one of the major controversies of the offseason was whether or not Bell was any good. On one side were persons of reason and taste. On the other were the Demand Excellence wing of the fanbase and some fly-by-night charting services. One of them provided some drops data to CBS, spurring some tweets and an article that had some startling assertions:

Highest drop rate among FBS receivers with a minimum of 50 targets in 2019 pic.twitter.com/ltVsIx2vOr

— Tom Fornelli (@TomFornelli) January 26, 2020

For its part the article claimed that Shea Patterson had the biggest gap between on-target rate (75%) and catch rate (59%) in the country.

Since Bell owns one of the most infamous drops in recent Michigan history, it's easy to accept that at face value. But this is, in a word, horseshit. The only way to get to a drop rate anywhere near the one claimed is to include events like this one:

We chart wide receiver targets, placing them in four different categories. A 3 is routine and should be caught every time. A 2 is tough and a high-level receiver should bring them in about 2/3rds of the time. A 1 is a circus catch and any catch there is a bonus. A zero is uncatchable. The difference between Bell and Michigan's other options over the course of last season is about one routine catch—yes okay it can be that one—and a circus catch or two:

The average difficulty of targets is more or less identical for the top three guys, but people remember more balls clanging off Bell's fingernails because there were more difficult or impossible targets. Also he was contrasted with Nico Collins, a circus catch machine. So let's move on.

Despite all that, Bell's 9.8 yards per target was second on the team amongst players with at least 20 targets, behind only Collins and well ahead of Donovan Peoples-Jones (8.1), Tarik Black (7.3), Nick Eubanks (6.0), and Sean McKeon (8.4). A large part of that efficiency was Bell's ability to rack up YAC. He didn't come in with much of a rep in that department, but a surprisingly large number of his catches featured missed tackles tacking on chunks:

This didn't just happen against Rutgers:

Bell has a knack for keeping his feet even as throws threaten to take him to the ground. The basket catch over his outside shoulder here is impressive enough even if he didn't tack on 20 yards by keeping his feet:

He also got a large number of the screens Michigan mostly eschewed. More on those in a second.

What we haven't yet seen is Bell doing the thing you'd expect a guy who was pirated away from a basketball scholarship to specialize in: fielding arm punts. I wouldn't put too much stock in that. It's hard to get the Rex Grossman targets when you're on the same team as DPJ and Nico Collins, and on the rare occasions Bell's been provided with a ball that allowed him to slow up and use his vertical he's shown the body control traditionally associated with basketball players doing football things:

He should be the default armpunt target. This space projects he'll bring in more than his fair share, somewhat mitigating the Collins malaise.

Bell has been middling at slot receiver stuff and a crushing blocker. He was pretty bad as a freshman and looked like he hadn't improved much early. He got a tunnel screen against Army and managed to turn a sure first down into this:

Doubly frustrating because that was a two minute drill on which the clock ran and a third down conversion ate up more time yet.

Michigan seemed to think he was their best bet on short stuff, though, and kept going to him. When they finally dragged a bunch of bubble screens out of the closet marked DANGER: RICH ROD CONTAINMENT ZONE, it was Bell who got the vast majority. He was effective going north and south on them and pulled out one critical WOOP to turn a negative play into 37 yards:

Those opportunities are likely to go by the wayside as Michigan's slots enter their second years. Also arguing against continued slot activities from Bell: his blocking. He turned in a UFR WR blocking record +11.5 against Michigan State:

This was an unprecedented perimeter blasting. Michigan's WRs annihilated the MSU secondary, whether it was on long-term downfield blocks on which Patterson didn't get touched…

WRs #8 and #4

…or Bell correctly leaving a blitzer and then hurling his man out of bounds…

slot WR  #8

…or Michigan's many devastating cut blocks on the edge.

slot WR #8

You'll note note that all of these feature Ronnie Bell.

I was going to cut one of those but I didn't have the heart because they're all great. Michigan has the fast waterbugs even if Bell's on the outside. They don't have that if he's got the ball in his hands.

A guy who block likes that is a Program Guy, and Bell's put the throttle down on that this offseason. The quarterbacks post noted that Bell has been working out more or less nonstop with Joe Milton and Cade McNamara. Gattis:

Ronnie is that guy that sets the tone in practice because he practices so hard. Just being able to have a guy that has played a ton of football. He understands things. Ronnie is motivated. Even though, for what a lot of people view as success for Ronnie last year, Ronnie believes, and he knows, that last year was just scratching the surface.

Bell was already Michigan's leading receiver as a true sophomore with three highly-touted guys a year ahead of him on the roster. All are gone now, and he's spent the offseason sleeping in a tent with his quarterbacks. He is a holy lock to be Michigan's #1 receiver and should contend for the most catches and yardage in the conference, all while laying down the gauntlet for anyone who would approach Michigan's waterbugs.

So, yeah, he's good.

the last tall person [Patrick Barron]

This preview projects sophomore CORNELIUS JOHNSON [recruiting profile] as the starter by a nose opposite Bell because 1) he is not a freshman and 2) he is taller than 5'10". No one else aside from Bell meets these criteria. This  distinction is likely ceremonial. Michigan will rotate various guys through until and unless someone takes the spot forcibly. One of the striking things from the offseason chatter is how Johnson and Mike Sainristil are almost always addressed as a unit. Gattis:

I’m really excited about Mikey and CJ. … Those guys are going to have a bigtime impact on the offense, they’ve been making plays. They’re so technique and fundamentally sound. That’s the thing that stands out about Mikey and CJ, it’s the technique and fundamentals that they play with.

Bell:

Ronnie Bell says sophomore WRs Cornelius Johnson and Mike Sainristil have been "dominant" throughout the offseason and preseason.

— Daniel Dash (@DanielDash_) September 24, 2020

Harbaugh:

“The three sophomores — Mike Sainristil, Giles Jackson, Cornelius Johnson — all really good and are playing.”

It's Bell, and everybody else.

Johnson's freshman year was mostly spent in the classic Michigan fashion: blocking. When he did get targets he looked promising. He grabbed a hitch against MTSU and then made a difficult adjustment:

These were his only informative targets, but yes I'm going to embed the knife twist against Michigan State:

37-10 with two minutes left. If someone tries to tell you that Jim Harbaugh has lost his petty show them that.

That was about it for Johnson on the field. The rest is talk. Oddly, there hasn't been a ton of talk about Johnson this offseason, when he is a critical piece. Last year Johnson enrolled early and there was a ton:

Lorenz has repeatedly mentioned Johnson is a name who's come up multiple times and that he is a "legitimate candidate to burn his redshirt"; Webb asserted that he's "impressed coaches and teammates alike"; Gattis said he's "wowing people the same way Mikey [Sainristil] did when he came in." Harbaugh asserted that Johnson is "rocketing up the depth chart," and while he is not doing that it's good to hear that he might be in a situation where it was possible to do so.

This is good talk because he was unnecessary last year. The reduced volume headed into this season is a minor ding. Even so there are a lot of reasons to be optimistic about Johnson. Michigan was able to snake him away from Stanford (and Notre Dame) late in the process. His parents are the Huxtables. He's got numbers:

Johnson's testing numbers aren't Giles Jackson's but they're not that far off once you account for the fact that Johnson is a half-foot taller. He put up a 4.58 40, a 4.13 shuttle, and a 37-inch vert at the Opening; he did that at 6'2", 193. His SPARQ was only a few points off the national WR leader, and the guys who beat him out in shuttle and vert were usually 5'8" or thereabouts. I

And he nuked the competition at his all star game:

• Helmholdt: "…caught our attention immediately … great routes. … great size … also proved to be a sure-handed receiver who can consistently create separation."
• Day one stock report: "as physically impressive as [five star Jaden Haselwood]. Both are tall, solidly-built and athletic, and when Johnson got out and ran routes he showed a smooth, effortless, athletic stride."
• His coach at the AA game responding to the idea Johnson "lacked top end speed and explosiveness": "No way. That didn’t show up here at all … he’s looked outstanding. He has a really good feel for the game and for getting open. He really understands coverage … From a physical standpoint, he’s really, really impressive."

Lorenz did report that a source "raved about the sophomore's offseason" a few weeks back, before Collins left the team.

Johnson should be 2A or 2B or 2C to Bell's #1, turning in a slate of nice catches and reminding observers of Amara Darboh.

BACKUPS OF ALL VARIETIES

Since Michigan brought in only one outside receiver numbers are alarmingly thin past the presumed starters. Johnson's main competitor is MIKE SAINRISTIL, who spent last year in the slot and is addressed in detail there. They're going to attempt the Gallon here.

fast one in the middle

The good news about the one guy they brought in is that ROMAN WILSON [recruiting profile] has a solid claim as the fastest recruit in America. From his recruiting profile:

He attended an Opening regional last May, whereupon he put up a 4.37 40, a 3.96 shuttle, and a 39-inch vertical. This was not a fluke: he was the Hawaii state champion in the 100 meter dash with a 10.6—reputedly on a wet track—and helped set the state-meet record in the 4x100 relay. Sam Webb reported that he put up a 4.43 after a three-month COVID-induced layoff.

Giddyup.

Wilson got rated as a low four star because he didn't turn his electric speed into the requisite production despite having a P5 QB recruit throwing to him. [UPDATE: to clarify, this was Wilson's junior year, when the rankings are often determined, particularly for folks living on an island thousands of miles away from the rankers.]  This would suggest a Freshman Wide Receivers Suck year and a bunch of hype entering 2021. But upon arrival Wilson immediately started generating buckets of hype, with one Rivals ITF asserting he was the best receiver on the team—and this was before Collins left.

If that sounds optimistic, well, yeah. But even the more sober takes were a little lubricated. Webb:

Before I get into talking about the young standout receiver, let’s be clear… No receiver was holding a candle to Nico Collins. … With that out of the way, let’s turn our attention to the starting Z receiver the week-plus of fall camp. His name is Roman Wilson.

Simply put, the Hawaiian speedster has a gear that Michigan hasn’t seen on offense in a long time.

Wilson's speed is "on another level"; looks like a guy who ran a 4.37; etc., etc.

The situation here isn't quite as open as it was when Mario Manningham enrolled; it is close. Wilson's freshman year might look a bit like Manningham's. Michigan's lack of depth is likely to force Wilson on the field early, where he will definitely run under one of Milton's 70 yard throws. He'll also run a bunch of routes that aren't precise enough for college. Liftoff is scheduled for 2021.

That is it as far as scholarship WRs go. The other options come in two flavors. Flavor one: a flex tight end. ERICK ALL [recruiting profile] is addressed more thoroughly as a tight end. Adam's scouting of All indicates why he also features here:

..run[s] his routes with a smoothness and easy athleticism … exceptionally fast and smooth transition from an out to a fade …excellent route runner … routinely finds his assignment, whether that assignment is a corner 10 yards downfield or a linebacker four yards off the line. … has the route-running chops and speed to line up wide and the football IQ to line up at H-back and take on assignments in the run game.

All has popped up 242 pounds on the most recent roster, which takes him towards plausible tight end territory but not out of the range where he could operate as an outside receiver from time to time. NICK EUBANKS may also have the athletic ability to contribute some WR snaps if he hasn't bulked up too much.

Schoenle's on the radar [Marc-Gregor Campredon]

Flavor two: walk-ons. Michigan has two who have seen some time and done all right. Seniors NATE SCHOENLE and JAKE MCCURRY generated enough on-field production and practice hype to warrant a section in last year's preview. Schoenle had a few catches in meaningful time in 2017…

…then missed most of 2018 with an injury, got hurt again in spring, and got stuck behind the horde last year.

McCurry had a nice touchdown against WMU…

…and was generating an unusual amount of talk from his teammates in the offseason…

When Wolverines Wire called out McCurry as a guy to watch after a strong spring session, that assertion was endorsed by various Michigan players on Twitter.

…before also getting hurt in spring and falling behind the horde. Neither made a dent last year.

There is no longer a horde and Wilson is a freshman who is certain to make his coaches hopping mad at some point, so a resurgence of one or both isn't out of the question. Schoenle is the more likely: he's got legitimate size at 6'2", played some on the outside—McCurry's been a slot—and was runner-up in all three agility drills when Michigan released winners from their internal combine a couple of years ago. (Those were the days.) He could be in line for 10-20 catches. Or, you know, zero.

SLOT: OOMPA LOOMPA DIDDLE DEE DEE, I'M REALLY FAST PLEASE THROW IT TO ME

RATING: 4

oompa loompa brickety-broke / alabama don't want none of this smoke [Bryan Fuller]

"Speed In Space" petered out into a whole bunch of nothing last year. We'll go over this graph in more detail in Five Questions, but this was Shea Patterson's 2019 pass distribution:

red: more targets than average; blue: fewer targets than average

Michigan was one of the most screen-averse teams in the country. This is not the only place your five foot nothin' guys can contribute; it is the most likely place for them to chip in when they are freshmen. Instead Michigan ignored the idea of stretching the field horizontally until the Penn State game, and even then it was Ronnie Bell on the receiving end of bubble screens. Michigan's slots were restricted to the occasional end-around as the internet fumed about their misuse, as is tradition. A fuller discussion of why this happened and whether it will continue is in Five Questions; for the purposes of this post it's sufficient to note that Michigan barely tried to use these guys.

They did start chipping in late. GILES JACKSON [recruiting profile] gets the presumed starter nod since he had 19 touches last year to Sainristil's 8, and we expect Sainristil to compete on the outside. Jackson was exciting as a kick returner but had a rough start in early-season cameos. He bounced a jet sweep to the corner, wasting his blocking; he was the primary read out of the backfield on an angle route but ran a bad, rounded route and was not open. Gattis was blunt about Jackson's early struggles in a recent availability:

"Earlier in the season, I had a lot of doubts about Giles," Gattis said. "He was on the scout team early in our season because it took him a little while to learn (the offense)."

Up until around the fifth week of the season, Gattis didn't think Jackson was going to make much of an impact on offense. But then something clicked, and from that point on, "it was about figuring how many ways he could touch the ball."

Jackson was living Freshman Wide Receivers Suck.

Things started turning around for him against Michigan State, when he got a couple of jet opportunities. The playcall and blocking did most of the work on the first one, but the second saw him bend around a guy in the backfield, cut up inside a block, and run through an arm tackle:

That felt like a guy who'd figured out that you can't always outrun everyone in college.

Michigan didn't have a whole lot else for him to do but they did implement a package where he was—finally—the "spread H" this site has been blathering about/pining for ever since Chris Evans arrived. Jackson scored massively open wheel routes against Indiana and Alabama(!) after lining up at running back. One false step towards the mesh point and it's over.

Michigan set these up by handing Jackson—who spent his junior year of high school as a running back—the ball. They haven't done this enough to get a real sample size. Indiana was able to hack down a bash run at the line of scrimmage; Michigan carved out three yards on an inside zone against Alabama. If he's dangerous enough on rushes to get those bites towards the line of scrimmage he's going to feast on routes out of the backfield.

That's because Jackson's athleticism translated. As a reminder, he was the top offensive tester at the Opening after putting up a 4.43 40, a 3.85(!!!) shuttle, and a 38-inch vert. His film looked like it would translate. But you never know if it's going to until Bama decides kicking to you is an unacceptable risk.

After that 'Bama started popping kickoffs up to the 35. Jackson learned that he can't always outrun everyone. Observers learned he can outrun a hell of a lot of guys.

With over 200 targets exiting the program, the Red Sea has parted for Jackson. He has the versatility to be an incredible pain in the ass for opposing defenses.

It should be noted that Freshmen Wide Receivers Suck is about routes and consistency, not about the natural ability to go get a ball, and that Jackson is not a tiny running back trying to make it work but a bonafide dual-threat spread H. Takes after he took on the nation's best at The Opening from his recruiting profile:

He did, and then he went to the Opening and did the same Giles Jackson things he'd been doing:

We've been saying it for months, that there hasn't been a more explosive player in the West than Jackson… backed it up… probably the top slot receiver in the event and can be used in a number of ways.

24/7 put him on their list of best players there ("unique speed and versatility … ability to create separation in space, run after the catch or attack the seam out of the slot") and put him on a couple of top performer lists before that ("natural pass catcher with great open field wiggle"; "can line up in the backfield or in the slot and is a scary mismatch").

As Gattis put it:

"He’s fast, he’s great with his hands, but how can you create separation as a route runner? And a lot of the things we did with him last year was find quick ways to put the ball in his hands. Now we’re finding all kinds of ways to put the ball in his hands."

He will bust out. PFF has a "Wins Above Average" stat that attempts to quantify your per-snap contributions; Jackson was first nationally amongst guys with fewer than 50 snaps. Now he's going to get a ton of opportunities. That could be 20 catches and 20 rushes; it could be 40 and 40. I lean towards the latter, especially if Joe Milton has some training wheels on early in the season. He will be Michigan's most exciting open-field threat since Steve Breaston.

BACKUPS

official is checking for broken ankles [Bryan Fuller]

Fellow sophomore MIKE SAINRISTIL [recruiting profile] was the leader here on the eve of the season, with endorsements from his head coach, quarterback, and position coach. He was explicitly named a starter after enrolling early and impressing throughout spring and fall camp. Then most of the targets got eaten up by veterans, because you know. Sainristil was on the field a lot more than Jackson. He just didn't get touches as frequently.

Part of this was bad sequencing of errors. Sainristil's early contributions included two drops on his first five routine opportunities, naturally depressing further targets. But, like Jackson, Sainristil flashed talent late in the season. After those initial hiccups he looked like a natural receiver. He dug out two wormburners against Michigan State…

…and in the Indiana game he made a tough basket catch on a fade…

…and he was able to catch a ball well behind him the driving rainstorm portion of the Notre Dame game. He can go get it.

Whether the too-frequent drops will remain an issue is unknown. There's been enough talk about catching the routine ones, some of it from Sainristil himself…

On where he needs to make the biggest leap

I'd say catching the ball, that's something I've been focusing on. Coach Gattis one Saturday gave everybody focus points for practice and that's the first thing I mentioned is making sure I catch everything off the tips. I continue to work on the details and our technique.

…to assume that it's more than a couple of bad luck drops that will evaporate when sample size goes up. It's an Area For Improvement. On the other hand, Sainristil's average difficulty on his catches was high. Bit of a Braylon Edwards thing going on.

Other freshman issues did persist later into the season. The MSU UFR theorized that a particular Patterson bug-out was due to a bad route from Sainristil:

[I have a] sneaking suspicion that the reason the play broke down was freshman stuff. Sainristil runs past the LB to the inside, but then turns left and ends up directly behind the guy.

If that's an option route it's the wrong option. Patterson is staring at this and seem to anticipate Sainristil breaking the other way; he bugs out as soon as Sainristil turns.

This is par for the course. Freshman WR, from New England, etc. You know the drill. The good news is that after the first couple drops the large majority of Sainristil issues were typical freshman playbook dorfs. He didn't have Darryl Stonum/Kekoa Crawford problems; at no point did it look like he was trying to fend off several bats when the ball arrived.

This may sound like a downfield receiver who happens to be short, and as mentioned the dearth of options on the outside should see Michigan explore that. Sainristil didn't get many Speed In Space touches last year despite being nominally the starting slot—the closest thing was some flashy decoy stuff against Notre Dame—and had a few moments where his route chops popped him wide open. Notre Dame was the victim here as well:

WR #19 in slot to top

One of the things that originally got people hyped about Sainristil was Gattis tweeting about him running this exact route in practice. Also Sainristil graded out well in the Alabama game, per PFF, despite getting no screens, and he was the other half of that "dominant" quote from Bell. Downfield is a possibility.

So is the slot. Sainristil also did this against Notre Dame:

He has the ability to break ankles in the open field.

Like Jackson, Sainristil should also see a major increase in opportunities. His will be split inside and out, leaving him something short of a starter at both spots but as frequently deployed as his competition. A good outcome in 2020 is to cut out the drops, show some route chops, and point towards the Jeremy Gallon star.

Henning is meep meep the third [Dave Nasternak]

If there are still slot snaps to go around after the two sophomores and CHRIS EVANS have their fill they'll go to true freshman AJ HENNING [recruiting profile], yet another diminutive guy with a reasonable claim as one of the five fastest guys in his recruiting class:

AJ Henning's appeal as a recruit isn't any harder to discern than Roman Wilson's. Dude is fast. He put up a 10.7 100 meter dash as a junior; he went to an Opening regional and put up a 4.46 40, 4.08 shuttle, and 37-inch vertical.

Henning is another Evans/Jackson hybrid, having put up about 800 yards each rushing and receiving as a senior in high school. He'll have an opportunity to impress in garbage time; Freshman Wide Receivers Suck will likely keep him stapled behind the other two guys during meaningful snaps.