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FORMATION NOTES: Michigan had a couple unusual things. Here's a pistol diamond formation:

This covers up the slot WR and somewhat limits your options. Michigan had three snaps out of this, all runs, and got 5, 3, and 1 yard, although I think Michigan execution was the problem on the one-yard run. There were also three wildcat snaps.

These were minor deviances. The larger news is that MSU safeties are no longer your, uh, older brother's Michigan State safeties. At no point did MSU stick both guys at eight yards. Frequently they were outright conservative with their positioning:

Safeties at 13 and 15 yards on second and eight; no coincidence that this play was the easy RPO slant for Collins.

Michigan ran a lot more fullback stuff in this game than the RB/WR/TE charting below suggests because I glossed over some Ben Mason snaps when he was in a wing TE spot. Not that there's a huge difference between Mason and McKeon in terms of what a play might accomplish. But FWIW.

SUBSTITUTION NOTES: One snap for McCaffrey; RB was again about equal between Haskins and Charbonnet with Wilson getting a bunch of snaps late. Mason is back at FB/TE full time and got ~20 snaps. TE usage was reduced, with only a few 2 TE snaps. McKeon got the bulk of the work.

Now-standard 4 WR rotation has Sainristil vying to make it 5—he got about 20 snaps himself. Jackson got a few.

Vastardis got 5 snaps replacing Ruiz on one drive. Hayes got a few bonus OL snaps and then the final drive at RT.

[After THE JUMP: speed in space]

Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Box	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M16	1	10	Shotgun twins	1	2	2	4-3 over	6.5	Pass	PA sack	N/A	-7
Coverage sack as M goes max pro and Patterson has plenty of time. Eubanks’s route is covered by a LB dropping into the cross that M has hit a few times this year. No replay but both outside WRs go deep and there are only two MSU players with sufficient depth to contest; gotta either punt it up to one of them or get rid of the ball in the general direction of Eubanks. (TA, N/A, protection 2/2)
M9	2	17	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	4-3 over	6.5	Pass	PA Flare screen	Bell	8
PA holds the slot LB inside and Sainristil(+0.5) stalks him and generally obstructs him, easy for Bell to flank that. Black(+1) puts the CB on the ground. He’s able to pop up and tackle Bell, saving MSU a few yards. (CA, 3, screen, RPS +1). Note that this is a covered slot formation but M is able to use the slot guy effectively.
M17	3	9	Shotgun trips	1	1	3	Exotic	6	Penalty	False start	Black	-5
Black -1.
M12	3	14	Shotgun trips	1	1	3	Exotic	6	Pass	Improv	Bell	16
MSU drops eight and there’s nothing open that's anywhere near first down yardage—routes here are weird, with only Bell and McKeon even approaching the sticks. Patterson looks at Bell and starts moving left as Bell’s going to pop open as he approaches the sideline. He gets some late edge pressure and throws a sort of sidearm dart to convert. Best throw of the year. (DO+, 3, protection 1/1, Bell route +)
M28	1	10	Shotgun trips TE	1	1	3	4-3 even	6	Pass	Hitch	Collins	Inc
Double A gap blitz picked up. Patterson loads up and fires to the field side; Collins ran a hitch at the numbers. There is a LB sort of close to the passing lane and I wonder if Collins should drift this outside some. Patterson’s throw is low and a bit upfield; Collins does get his hands on it but can’t bring it in. (MA, 2, protection 2/2)
M28	2	10	Pistol diamond twins	3	0	2	4-3 over	6.5	Run	Iso	Charbonnet	5
MSU LBs shade to the field so this gets to be a clean iso on which Mason(+1) buries a LB at the LOS. Runyan(+1) gets a big kick, but Bredeson(-1) and Ruiz(-1) can’t contain the playside DT. He’s able to drive Bredeson back into Mason’s block, which causes Bredeson to go over. CB contains, forcing Charbonnet back to the DT and the MLB, who nobody was able to climb do because this DT double went badly.
M33	3	5	Shotgun trips	1	1	3	Exotic	6.5	Pass	Slot fade	Bell	Inc
Not a great route by Bell as Person gets most of the way over the top of him. Looks like he may have got the snap count wrong? He doesn't exactly explode off the line. This throw is way too long and doesn’t give Bell any shot anyway. (IN, 0, protection 1/1, Bell route -)
Drive Notes: Punt, 0-0, 12 min 1st Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Box	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M14	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	4-3 over	6.5	Run	Dart stretch	Haskins	3
MSU shades their LBs to the weakside of the formation. M blocks down with Onwenu(+0.5), who stalls out the DT, with Ruiz climbing over the top of him and getting to a LB. That guy fires hard and Ruiz isn’t going to seal this guy inside. He does stall him out. Haskins(+0.5) able to run through most of his tackle and pick up a few YAC. RPS -1. LB posture made this a tough ask. Refs(+1) miss this spot by a full yard in M’s favor.
M17	2	7	Shotgun trips TE	1	1	3	4-3 over	7	Pass	Improv	Sainristil	15
Haskins motions out presnap to create quads to the field. TE left in; MSU appears to cover everything, possibly because Sainristil turned the wrong way? He seems to take his route directly into an MSU player. Runyan(-1) driven back almost into the QB’s lap but does manage to anchor and make the guy go around him. McKeon is about to lose his guy to the outside when Mayfield goes looking for work and blasts him to the ground; Patterson can step up. Sainristil works his way open and is wide, wide open; Patterson gets it to him but leaves it way short and Sainristil does well to dig it out. Alas poor YAC I knew him well. Uh… (MA+, 1, protection ½)
M32	1	10	Shotgun trips tight bunch	1	2	2	4-3 over	7.5	Run	End-around	Jackson	21
Essentially an arc keeper except Patterson hands off to Jackson. Runyan(+0.5) gets out to wall off the relevant DE. McKeon(+0.5) pulls into space and it looks like he whiffs for a second but that guy had to go upfield of him and has no real shot at Jackson(+0.5), who is fast. Collins(+2) drives his CB about eight yards downfield after contact. S able to come up and tackle. RPS +2.
O47	1	10	Shotgun trips bunch	1	1	3	4-3 over	6	Pass	Bubble screen	Bell	Inc
Haskins again out to create quads, bubble to the #4 WR to that side. McKeon(-1) mostly whiffs on playside LB but Bell might have an angle to beat him and get a nice chunk; ball is too far in front of him and he can’t catch it off his fingertips (IN, 1, screen)
O47	2	10	Shotgun trips tight bunch	1	1	3	4-3 over	7	Run	Split zone	Haskins	7
Orbit motion from DPJ and holy crap this is probably not a read because MSU blitzes off the corner and DPJ is alone. M still makes this work despite a blitz that looks like it’s bad for this play. McKeon(+1) reacts to the #2 guy coming off the edge well, sliding down to cut him off. Mayfield(+2) annihilates a DE slanting away from him, putting him five yards downfield and passing Onwenu laterally. Onwenu(+0.5) does chip in a little. LB held by the orbit action does not look up the RB until pretty late and does make a tackle.
O40	3	3	Shotgun twin TE	1	2	2	4-3 over	7	Pass	Drag	Black	Inc
Runyan(-1) beat pretty clean around the corner but just avoids the -2 because his guy goes around at 9 yards and he’s able to recover and shove him at the last second. Still forces Patterson up in a not great pocket; he dumps a throw out to a very covered Black, and ball is PBU’d. (PR, 0, protection ½)
O40	4	3	Shotgun empty	0	1	4	30 nickel slide	6	Pass	Hitch	Collins	Inc
M motions McKeon from the boundary to the field presnap and then runs him on one of those rubbin’s racin’ outs, and he’s wide open. Patterson instead looks at Collins in man by himself and throws a hitch. Collins hitches up; DB in blanked coverage and then grabs Collins’s arm without a call. Galling given previous calls in this game (refs -2) but also this is a presnap read I’m dubious about. (BR, 0, protection 1/1)
Drive Notes: Turnover on downs, 0-0, 5 min 1st Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Box	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M32	1	10	Pistol twins twin TE	1	2	2	4-3 over	7	Run	Arc zone give	Charbonnet	2
Fake does hold the end somewhat, borderline give/keep decision. Don’t really understand the blocking here, which leaves Williams and Onwenu 1v1; Onwenu(+0.5) mostly wins, turning Williams out and getting a little movement, but Ruiz has no angle to the MLB and Mayfield(-1) pretty much whiffs on the second level. RPS -1, didn’t have a plan to block the MLB.
M34	2	8	Shotgun 3-wide tight	1	1	3	4-3 over	7	Pass	RPO slant	Collins	15
Different world for MSU S when they’re lined up 15 yards off the LOS because of Collins terror. RPO sucks up the LB level and it’s 2015 out there again. (CA, 3, RPO, RPS +2)
M49	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	4-3 over	6.5	Pass	PA Flare screen	DPJ	7 + 15 pen
Same as the earlier flare with WR on orbit motion getting the ball after the snap; DPJ this time. LB slides down again and M has blockers for both guys on the edge. Bell(+1) cuts his guy to the ground but that guy is able to pop up and tackle; Collins(+0.5) got a good stalk-block himself. DPJ gets a fair chunk and then MSU gets a dubious late hit after, refs +2. (CA, 3, screen, RPS +1)
O29	Shotgun 3-wide	10	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	4-3 over	6.5	Pass	Hitch	Collins	8
Five yard hitch gets an iffy throw; Collins(+0.5) has to jump for it and that costs him time. He gets some of the yards back by trucking a freshman CB; still lost some YAC. (MA, 2, protection 1/1, RPS +1)
O21	2	2	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	4-3 over	6.5	Pass	RPO out	Bell	18
This is a doofy two yard out on which Bell(+2) gets a first down and then beats the safety clean. S is set up at 13 yards near the redzone, this is not your father’s MSU D. (CA, 3, RPO)
O3	1	G	Wildcat 3TE	2	3	1	Goal line	10	Run	QB down G	Haskins	1
MSU shifts right before the snap and this gives M some problems. McKeon(+1) buries EMLOS and Mayfield(+1) does similarly further inside. Mason or Onwenu runs by a kickout block. I think it’s Onwenu(-1) given the way down G has usually gone before but guessing. Ruiz(-0.5) has a tough job as his guy slides playside before the snap and drives that way, hard to get much of anything on him; missed kickout and this guy combine to tackle but the McKeon pancake lets Haskins fall forward.
O2	2	G	Wildcat 3TE	2	3	1	Goal line	10	Run	QB split zone	Haskins	2
Mason to the backside of the line; Haskins goes right at Runyan(+1) and Bredeson(+1), who double Williams and put him in the endzone. Hayes(+0.5) roots out Willikes, who tosses him to the ground but Hayes got inside him and that’s what counts. Haskins scores fairly easily.
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 7-7, 14 min 2nd Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Box	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M2	1	10	Pistol twins FB	2	1	2	4-3 over	7	Run	Split zone	Haskins	3
McKeon(-1) gets driven backwards into a gap that Runyan(+0.5) and Bredeson(+0.5) carved out; Haskins(+1) cuts behind this into Willekes’s back and is able to bounce off this and get a chunk of YAC. Mason(+0.5) with a nice kickout.
M5	2	7	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	4-3 even	7	Pass	Fly	DPJ	Inc
McKeon(-2) beat immediately by Willekes and Patterson has to get rid of it. This ball is well in the sideline and only vaguely at DPJ, who has some room to the sideline for a back shoulder throw. This is pressured a bit but no hit and doesn’t look like a throwaway, except that it does. (IN, 0, protection 0/2)
M5	3	7	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Nickel even	6	Pass	Comeback	DPJ	8
CB playing in the parking lot on DPJ, who drives to about ten yards and then comes back to the sideline. This isn’t quite the same situation as the Black throw last week but this ball is out notably faster and hits DPJ in stride. (CA, 3, protection 1/1, DPJ route +)
M13	1	10	Shotgun 2TE	2	1	2	4-3 over	7	Run	Insert iso	Charbonnet	3
Charbonnet(-2) makes his decision too quickly here. M attacks the backside of what looks like IZ to most of the D; Mason gets his iso block on a LB but that guy charges at the LOS and the contact comes a half yard in the backfield; Mason(+0.5) stalls this guy out but he’s to the inside of him and Charbonnet just runs right into this guy when cutting off Mason’s butt puts him to the secondary on a big run. Ruiz(+0.5) and Runyan(+0.5) got blocks that help Charbonnet grind out the yards he did get here. RPS push, this is almost a big play on which M buys back a blocker but the MSU backer firing so hard made Charbonnet’s cut harder to find. RPS +1, iso vs one LB should work pretty well.
M16	2	7	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	4-3 over	7	Run	Arc zone keeper	Patterson	15
DE shuffles way way too far down and makes this obvious for Patterson(+1), unless this is a scrape that doesn’t get made. McKeon(+0.5) stops and cuts off an LB way out of position and Patterson splits good downfield blocks from Bell(+1) and Collins(+1) for a first down. RPS +2.
M31	1	10	Shotgun trips bunch TE	1	1	3	4-3 over	6.5	Pass	Improv	Bell	18
Max pro against a four man rush; good time to start and Patterson does bug out of this pocket too soon. Looks like he has Collins if he times this throw right; S goes for Black first before pivoting around and there’s good separation. He doesn’t see it, starts moving, and Bell comes open for a chunk anyway. (CA, 3, protection 2/2)
M49	1	10	Shotgun trips TE	1	1	3	4-3 even	6.5	Pass	RPO hitch	Bell	9
RPO deletes the two interior LBs. Deep S, slot LB is worrying about DPJ further outside, dead simple hitch with some YAC. (CA, 3, RPO, RPS +1)
O42	2	1	Pistol FB	2	1	2	4-3 over	7	Run	Iso	Charbonnet	14
Iso catches a corner blitz that it can run away from. Runyan(+1) and Bredeson(+1) bury the DE slanting inside. Ruiz(+0.5) does enough on the NT to prevent him from coming all the way around. Mason(+0.5) runs at the MLB, who dives under him and actually get Mason to flip over him. Charbonnet(+0.5) able to pick his way through this for a nice gain. RPS push as the CB blitz didn’t have much impact either way. Ruiz exits, Vastardis for the rest of this drive.
O28	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	4-3 over	6.5	Pass	PA out	Sainristil	6
Pocket gets pushed uncomfortably so Patterson starts drifting back a bit. Mayfield(-1) has one of his iffy edge rush pass pro incidents where the guy gets around a little deep and can pressure; Patterson throws off his back foot and forces Sainristil to dig out a duck. (MA, 1, protection ½)
O22	2	4	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	4-3 over	7	Run	Speed option	Charbonnet	5
Speed option sees a LB blitz off the edge and the DE dive inside. Runyan is trying to climb to the MLB but the DE diving inside gets in the way. OTOH LB blitz is an easy pitch decision. Bell(+2) pitches his block into the sideline; Charbonnet(+0.5) able to run through the MLB tackle; Collins(+0.5) got a decent push on his guy.
O17	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	4-3 over	7	Pass	Fade	Collins	Inc (Pen +15)
Sure why not. This is not a well thrown ball, as it’s well inside and short; this is almost irrelevant because DB panic sets in and Collins gets mugged as he tries to get to the ball. (MA, 0, protection 1/1, Collins route +)
O2	1	G	Wildcat 3TE	2	3	1	Goal line	10	Run	Down G	Haskins	-3
Runyan(+0.5) buries a guy trying to submarine him; McKeon(-1) gets run over by a DE coming right at him as Hayes moves to the second level. Mason again gets submarined; Haskins(-0.5) misses a cut inside of the intended path here and gets tackled. He gets tackled at the LOS and then forced back to the five, where they mark it. WTF? Refs -2.
O5	2	G	Pistol FB 3TE	2	3	0	4-3 even	7	Pass	PA TE out	Eubanks	5
Might be an RPO but Mayfield releases downfield and then stops so I wonder. In any case MSU’s LB level bites incredibly hard on PA in this situation, which is rookie stuff, and Patterson hits the easy TD. He throws it high and a little inside but good enough. (CA, 3, protection N/A, RPS +1)
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 14-7, 4 min 2nd Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Box	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M40	1	10	Shotgun 4-wide	1	1	3	4-3 over	6	Run	QB draw	Patterson	0
This doesn’t quite work out as Patterson goes after the bubble in the MSU line and the OL blocks this to go right up the gut. Ruiz(+0.5) and Onwenu(+0.5) are clearly working to kick out the NT and provide a lane further inside; Bredeson(+2) pancakes the other DT. Patterson(-2) cuts to the wrong side of the Onwenu block and gets tackled by the DT.
M40	2	10	Shotgun trips TE	1	1	3	4-3 over	6	Pass	Hitch	Bell	7
Quick hitch to Bell, immediate tackle, incredibly weak PF on MSU nearly called as whistles blow when Bell is already in the air and he’s not taken down violently. They pick it up, which they should. (CA, 3, protection 1/1)
M47	3	3	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	3-3 stack	6	Pass	Slot fade	Bell	42
Patterson doesn’t know Bell’s guy has fallen when he throws and this ends up looking like a difficult catch and maybe a sort of bad throw but I think if the DB is still up it looks pretty good because it takes Bell away from his hypothetical defender. Bell makes a tough catch and jets down the sideline. (CA, 2, protection 1/1)
O11	1	10	Shotgun twin TE	1	2	2	4-3 over	7	Run	Split zone	Charbonnet	1
Jet fake turns into arc and M blocks the end? And then Mayfield leaves that guy late to go get someone else? That looks like an error for Mayfield(-2). Onwenu(+0.5) should be driving the NT and then trying to pick off the last LB but Mayfield’s absence means a LB jets by him and he comes off to kick that guy out, but then the NT doesn’t get fully blocked and he’s able to tackle; think Charbonnet(-1) makes a bad cut here because he is headed for a gap which is there as Bredeson(+2) pancakes a DT. Charbonnet cuts away from this gap.
O10	2	9	Shotgun twin TE	1	2	2	4-3 over	7	Run	Zone read belly	Charbonnet	0
Zone read from M on which both TEs leave and Willekes flies in to the mesh and then tries to form up. Neither option feels great. It’s a give; Charbonnet hops away from Willekes and into Bredeson(+0.5) just barely getting to a blitzing LB. Runyan(+0.5) has driven a DT way inside but Willekes forces this into the DT anyway. Eubanks and McKeon(-1) conspire to not block the LB heading out for Patterson; think Eubanks is headed for the S and McKeon had the LB. RPS -1, the Willekes fire might have had both sides of this.
O10	3	9	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Nickel over	7	Pass	Slant	Black	Inc
MSU sends seven, leaving Black in one on one coverage. Black breaks inside of the DB; he doesn’t have any separation but has good body position; Patterson throws it way behind. Could argue for a PI but it would have been an injustice with this throw. (IN, 0, protection 2/2). We have another Onwenu double block here BTW.
Drive Notes: FG(28), 17-7, EOH
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Box	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M43	1	10	Pistol 3-wide tight	1	1	3	4-3 over	7	Pass	TE flat screen	McKeon	19
Arc structure. Slot LB blitzes; Collins passes him up, as does McKeon, he spends himself on QB. Patterson pulls and then flips it to McKeon in the flat. S comes down and gets flanked as he’s thinking run; Bell(+2) buries a corner with one of these waist blocks; McKeon(+1) stiffarms that S to the ground to add another 6-7 yards. RPS +2. (CA, 3, screen)
O38	1	10	Shotgun twins twin TE	1	2	2	4-3 over	7	Pass	RPO out	Collins	Inc
Field side LB comes, Patterson pulls, double outs on which CB has to be wrong on one. Patterson gets unblocked DE jumping n his face and has to pull it down; he does and moves up, flinging a ball to Collins that’s short and uncatchable. OL did a good job to stop. Nice move to get around pressure but Patterson can’t get it there. (IN, 0, RPO)
O38	2	10	Shotgun trips TE	1	1	3	4-3 over	7	Pass	RPO hitch	Bell	20
MSU LB s tucked inside with a CB to the field; DPJ runs a slot fade that gets the S over him to pay attention; other S is at 15 yards. RPO, Bell stops at 5 yards and has acres of space. (CA, 3, RPO, RPS +2) Bell(+1) broke a tackle to make some additional yards.
O18	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	4-3 over	7	Pass	Dumpoff	DPJ	18
Orbit motion from DPJ peters out into him standing behind the LOS in the flat. Patterson appears to look at a bracketed Collins and then just checks down to DPJ. He does this quickly so the MSU LB is far away, but DPJ(+2) just runs past him and scores. Okay? (CA, 3, protection 1/1))
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 24-7, 12 min 3rd Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Box	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M35	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	4-3 over	7	Run	Jet sweep	Jackson	11
A bonafide jet. Jackson(+1) gets pushed way upfield by a DE but bends around him and then heads inside blocks from Haskins(+0.5) and Bell(+0.5), then runs through an arm tackle from the DB trying to track him; RPS +1, MLB never involved because he’s looking inside and tough to track Jackson even with the bend.
M46	1	10	Pistol diamond twins	3	0	2	4-3 over	7	Run	Dart iso	Wilson	3
Bredeson(+1) blocks down on NT, fires him inside. Ruiz(-2) pulls around and does not ID the correct LB, going after the same guy Mason does. He corrects late and gets a bump in, which would rescue a point but before he does so he knocks Mason over. Wilson(+0.5) does well to drive Mason’s guy a bit for an okay gain.
M49	2	7	Pistol diamond twins	3	0	2	4-3 over	7	Run	Dunno	Wilson	0
Hard to decipher. Mason appears to be arcing out; he passes up the DE, some threat of a Patterson keeper, I guess. Haskins then comes and whacks the same DE to kick him out. OK but now there’s an unblocked LB tackling Wilson. Assumption is Haskins(-2) should have blocked this LB as the outside fake holds the DE.
M49	3	7	Shotgun trips	1	1	3	Nickel over	6	Pass	Fade	Black	28 – 15 pen
Excellent back shoulder fade that Black has to go up for and easily beats the CB doing so. This is basically no read except I’ve got Black vs Butler let’s go. (DO, 2, protection 1/1). Black gets one of the more ridiculous PFs of the game (refs -2) on a flex afterwards.
O38	1	10	Shotgun trips bunch TE	1	1	2	Nickel over	6.5	Pass	Transcontinental	McCaffrey	Inc (Pen -13)
Two QB play with an obvious backwards pass to Patterson; McKeon runs a deep post to draw attention and the hope is to hit McCaffrey across the field. McCaffrey knocked over; McKeon is actually open but is never a real read and Patterson just punts it OOB, getting called for grounding as he’s not the guy who took the snap. RPS -2, MSU snuffed this out and M had no plan other than the transcontinental. Not –3 because this should have been a zero yard play if Patterson just runs it or turfs it at Eubanks's feet. Not charted.
M49	2	23	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	4-3 over	6.5	Pass	Dumpoff	Wilson	3
Yikes, token PA sucks up the entire LB level. Lack of replay here kills me but with S bailing deep anything other than a straight go route from the slot guy should be open. Someone’s gotta be worth a shot. Patterson doesn’t take it. He checks down to Wilson, who’s tackled immediately. (TA, 3, protection 2/2) Refs(+1) give Michigan a free yard.
O48	3	20	Shotgun 4-wide	1	1	3	Exotic	6	Pass	TE seam	McKeon	27
Some kind of special on third and 20 to have your LB level stops about 13 yards downfield. Patterson has a wide open McKeon and hits him; throw takes him off his feet. (CA, 2, protection 2/2.)
O21	1	10	Shotgun twins twin TE	1	2	2	4-3 over	7	Pass	PA post	Collins	Inc
Double posts from Black and Collins; Patterson throws the outer one to Collins and Black’s guy is able to fall off of him and get a PBU. Klatt is right that the proximity of the WRs to each other allows this to happen but also this is kind of just a terrific play by the MSU DB… sort of. Black beats this guy and gets separation and I think he’s more open than Collins. I dunno. (MA, 0, protection 2/2)
O21	2	10	Shotgun trips H	1	1	3	4-3 over	7	Run	Arc zone give	Wilson	2
Jet action. This turns into an arc. McKeon arcs. Playside DE and LB both shuffle down and this has to be a pull. Patterson(-2) does not pull. Wilson has to run away from the DE/LB. M OL is blocking to carve out the lane backside so nothing there once the read is blown.
O19	3	8	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Exotic	8	Pass	Sack	N/A	-12
S moves down really late and MSU sends five with that S picking up McKeon in man. M picks this up okay, with Charbonnet getting over to get the LB, but that pickup is a little late and Patterson understandably flushes from the pocket. Spy chases him, he motions guys, and as he approaches the sideline he trips for a big sack. (TA, N/A, protection 2/2)
Drive Notes: FG(49), 27-10, 2 min 3rd Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Box	Type	Play	Player	Yards
O22	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide tight	1	1	3	4-3 over	7	Pass	Post	Collins	22
Pretty simple as Collins drives vertical, breaks out, gets a bite, and then breaks back in. He’s got position; Patterson puts a perfect ball in the #buttzone, TD. (DO, 2, protection 1/1, Collins route +)
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 34-10, 14 min 4th Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Box	Type	Play	Player	Yards
O44	1	10	Shotgun trips TE	1	1	3	Nickel over	6	Pass	Bubble screen	Bell	18 (Pen offset)
Bell gets the bubble; Sainristil gets what I’d say is a +2 block but then he gets flagged for what looks like the same thing M has been doing all day. Maybe this is lower? This hits above the knees instead of at the waist? I dunno man. (CA, 3, screen, RPS +1). A Panasuik cheapshots Patterson and gets ejected to offset.
O44	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	4-3 over	6.5	Run	Split zone	Wilson	1
Pretty much what M has been avoiding all day an demonstrated why; slot LB comes down and fills a gap over the bubble in the MSU line; Wilson(-0.5) for some reason not expecting that and ends up dancing in the backfield trying to get back to the split block area; this could have been 3 but is 1 as a result.
O43	2	9	Pistol 3-wide tight	1	1	3	4-3 over	7	Run	Arc zone keeper	Patterson	8
DE gone inside, very obvious pull. Patterson makes it. MSU is able to keep this inside the numbers; Patterson doesn’t see this and only cuts behind his blocks very late, falling. I’d minus this if it was the first half, but yeah just get out of this healthy thx. (RPS +1)
O35	3	1	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	4-3 over	7	Run	Insert iso	Wilson	2
Runyan(+0.5) gets a kick; Bredeson(+0.5) gets a second level block. Ruiz(+0.5) passes up a guy who ends up diving at Wilson’s feet and gets a second level block; Wilson crosses the line to gain.
O33	1	10	Shotgun trips	1	1	3	4-3 over	6	Pass	Bubble screen	Bell	12
Bubble w/ McKeon(+2) as #2. Slot LB runs at him; he stands the guy up and puts him on the ground just inside the sideline. Bell(+0.5) gets around this; nice gain. (CA,3, screen)
O21	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	4-3 over	7	Pass	Sack	N/A	-10
RPO on which Patterson hesitates. Flat is covered, seems to be trying to get to a corner on read #2 and then he’s decked. Mayfield(-1) beat but Mason(-1) motions inside and then moves to block an iso and clips Mayfield a bit to prevent him from really getting out on Willekes. (PR, N/A, protection 0/2). Onwenu gets a horrible holding call where he throws a guy to the ground; declined.
O31	2	20	Shotgun 4-wide	1	1	3	Nickel over	6	Run	Zone read belly	Wilson	1
Blocking is fine here as Runyan(+0.5) and Bredeson(+0.5) fire in a DT and Bredeson does enough on a LB; Patterson gives against a shuffle end when he should probably keep but situation so whatever.
O30	3	19	Shotgun trips	1	1	3	Exotic	6	Pass	Bubble screen	DPJ	15
Almost a hilarious TD but DPJ does barely step out. This absolutely should not work but DPJ(+2) dodges a guy who got outside of Eubanks immediately and then tightropes the sideline; Black(+0.5) deals with his guy; last S barely pushes him out. (CA, 3, screen)
Drive Notes: FG(33), 37-10, 10 min 4th Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Box	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M26	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	4-3 over	6.5	Run	Dart stretch	Wilson	2
RPS is mostly off; this is RPS as M blocks down with Onwenu(+0.5) and the playside LB gets outside of Ruiz pulling around, forcing it back to his help. No way for anyone to get to that guy with the DTs pinched. Hayes(+0.5) with a good kickout and Ruiz(+0.5) does what he can with the LB.
M28	2	8	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	4-3 even	6.5	Run	Zone stretch	Wilson	5
Bounce is there as Runyan(+1) turns in a DE but can’t quite get depth to pick off a LB. McKeon kicks out the slot LB, MLB comes up unimpeded and Wilson bounces to the edge for a few.
M33	3	3	Pistol 3-wide	1	1	3	4-3 over	7	Run	Arc zone keeper	Patterson	5 + 15 pen
Scrape from MSU; M has McKeon(+0.5) arc around and find the scrape backer and block him in. Pull and clean edge for Patterson(+1), who slides down in bounds. RPS still off. Other Panasuik gets an unsportsmanlike for barking at the referee.
O47	1	10	Pistol FB	2	1	2	4-3 over	7	Run	Iso	Wilson	9
LBs move up into different gaps so when Mason(+0.5) buries a guy after another dive from an MSU player there’s no one else in the gap. Onwenu(+0.5) and Ruiz(+0.5) do enough to carve out a hole and Wilson(+1) dodges a safety to get a nice gain.
O38	2	1	Pistol twins	2	1	2	4-3 under	7	Run	Split zone	Wilson	-1
Onwenu(-1) late recognizing a slant and lets a guy penetrate; this would probably be harsher grading if there weren’t 3 minutes left.
O39	3	2	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	4-3 over	6.5	Pass	Arc PA fly	Johnson	39
AKA the reason I bothered with this drive. Arc, with Johnson blocking off the snap; MSU rushes up at it; Johnson falls off the CB, who also comes up to defend the run, and Patterson flicks it to a now wide open Johnson for a TD. (CA+, 3, protection N/A, RPS +3), yes I will RPS this because it is a dagger.
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 44-10, 2 min 4th Q. Other snap is a kneel.

All right all right all right!

Yessir. You know what Michigan didn't do? They didn't do the thing where they wait for one of their staples to get downloaded before moving on. Pin and pulls in this game: zero. How much practice time did MSU spend on pin and pulls? One dollar says a bunch.

The other thing Michigan didn't do is beat its head against a brick wall. Michigan went out of its way to avoid the center of the Michigan State defense. If we set aside short yardage, by the time it was 37-10 Michigan had run 20 times to 37 dropbacks. Those runs were:

• 3 edge attacks: two end-arounds for Jackson and a speed option
• 4 arc zone reads; Patterson kept two, really should have kept a third, and 50/50 on the fourth
• a QB draw
• 12 fairly conventional interior runs (split zone, iso, inside zone, etc.)

So not only did Michigan pass a lot, nearly half of their runs were either pure edge plays, hybrids (the arc), or a QB draw that doesn't go up against MSU's conventional run approach.

Meanwhile the passing game had eight pure edge attacks (four bubbles, two flare screens, the Bell RPO out, and the TE flat screen) plus the dumpoff to DPJ he scored on that maybe looked like the plan. Collectively Michigan's 14 edge plays (I'm counting the two arc keepers) gained 175 yards, an excellent return, and also caused things like this to happen:

MSU MLB

And on top of that Michigan hit on 3 of 4 RPOs for 44 yards of dead-easy wide open throws.

The fourth wasn't really covered, either, but Patterson left it short after dodging a rusher.

That's over 200 yards Joe Bachie, Raequan Williams and Kenny Willekes have no ability to do anything about.

There's some sort of term for this, tip of my  tongue…

Yes, this was a speed in space game, one that showed you the power of making the opposition defend every inch of the field. Despite everything that's happened to MSU this year they entered this game with the #11 SP+ defense. Michigan did this to them:

• TD drives of 98, 68, 57, 74, and 22 yards.
• FG drives of 50, 34, and 29 yards.
• 46-yard turnover on downs on which PI is suspected
• 1 first-down-and-out.

And this easily could have been worse, at least on a yards per play basis. Michigan  had a couple WRs taken off their feet when they could have run forever, and even the interior runs at the heart of the MSU D had a fair success rate that could have been even better.

So you were wrong about all this!

…what now

You were depressed about the state of the offense and now it's good.

I mean was I supposed to look at Michigan doing none of the things they did in this game and like it? This is an offense that scored 14 regulation points against Army. Fumbles only explain a small part of that debacle. It's gotten better over the course of the year; it's hard to understand why the offense defied every pre-season assertion about it from the coaches and then remembered what the goal of the offense was in the Penn State game.

Michigan improving a lot over the course of the season doesn't make previous criticisms invalid. But let's not dwell too much on the past. Potentially unnecessary transition issues will be small potatoes if Michigan can maintain the level of whoopin' they put up Saturday over the next several years. I want to emphasize how excellent this plan was and how it lived up to 90% of offseason hopes. Now hopefully to maintain.

I bet that chart looks weird with all the stuff you mentioned.

I assert without checking that this is an all-time record for WR positives in general and individually.

Offensive Line
Player	+	-	Total	Notes
Runyan	7.5		7.5	Sort of like the DEs: unspectacular, definition of solid.
Bredeson	9	1	8	Multiple pancakes, unusual for him.
Ruiz	3	3.5	-0.5	Missed ID on a pull.
Onwenu	4.5	2	2.5	Left handed run game lowered numbers over here.
Mayfield	3	3	0	Missed assignment was most of the minuses.
McKeon	6.5	4	2.5	up and down
Eubanks				DNC
All				DNC
Mason	3		3	MSU was submarining him instead of taking him on.
Hayes	1		1	Bonus TE, last drive as RT.
TOTAL	37	11.5	76%	Left side was dominant.
Backs
Player	+	-	T	Notes
Patterson	2	4	-2	Usual missed reads but kept a couple.
McCaffrey				DNC
Charbonnet	1	3	-2	Couple missed cuts.
Turner				DNP
Wilson	1.5	0.5	1	Late only.
Milton
Haskins	2	2.5	-0.5	One major hiccup was as a blocker in the diamond.
TOTAL	6.5	10	-3.5	Could have been worse for MSU on the ground.
Receivers
Player	+	-	T	Notes
DPJ	4		4	two +2s for dusting guys in the flat
Collins	4.5		4.5	screen blocking excellent
Black	1.5	1	0.5
Bell	11.5		11.5	UFR record for WR by… 6 points? Most of this blocking.
Johnson
Sainristil	2.5		2.5	Gave him credit for his block since it was the same as the others.
Jackson	1.5		1.5	Couple of good edge runs.
TOTAL	24.5	1	+23.5	the gameplan in a nutshell
Metrics
Player	+	-	T	Notes
Protection	29	7	81%	Mayfield –2, McKeon –2, Runyan –2, Mason -1
RPS	22	5	+17	got dang son

+11.5! for a receiver! WRs received a total of 25.5 grading points, almost double the QB/WR section's 16.5, and only one of those was negative. This was an unprecedented perimeter blasting. Michigan's WRs annihilated the MSU secondary, whether it was on long-term downfield blocks on which Patterson didn't get touched…

WRs #8 and #4

…or Bell correctly leaving a blitzer and then hurling his man out of bounds…

slot WR #8

…or Michigan's many devastating cut blocks on the edge.

slot WR #8

You'll note that all of these feature Ronnie Bell, but Michigan's entire WR corps got work done. The cut block above was a trend; most WRs got one of these in. The last one did get flagged for reasons that remain pretty mysterious. You can cut a guy as long as he's taking the hit between 10 and 2—ie, from the front. I don't know what the difference is between this crunching cut block from Black…

WR #7 to top

…and this Sainristil block:

Also look at where that flag comes in from, the guy who threw it is nowhere near. If someone can distinguish why this block is illegal I'd like to hear it. My assumption is that this was a bad call.

Lookit that RPS!

Yessir. Much of that was discussed above. Michigan got over 11 yards per play going to the perimeter. And MSU's previous ability to both hammer your run game with a nine man front and then jam up your attempts to pass is gone.

Their defense is just another defense now. I don't think this is personnel issues forcing MSU to play differently; I think it's offenses downloading hyperaggressive quarters defenses and forcing MSU to shift away from their salad days approach. This makes them much more mortal. Not hard to draw a line from this MSU safety on Bell lining up at 13 yards instead of eight and the five yards the MSU S has to close down on the catch:

MSU S to bottom

That wide open RPO to Collins would have featured an MSU safety putting his helmet in Collins's ribs a few years ago. Moving the safeties back opened MSU up to getting hellaciously RPS'd. I don't know where they go from here without a major talent infusion that is unlikely to happen.

It finally felt like Michigan was using their WR corps like they should have.

A lot of targets to go around, with six different WRs getting involved if you include Jackson's two carries. Good day for the actual catching of things, along with the annihilation of things.

[0 = uncatchable, 1 = circus catch, 2 = moderate difficulty, 3 = routine]

	THIS WEEK					SEASON
Player	0	1	2	3		0	1	2	3
DPJ	1			2/2		6	2/6	5/5	17/18
Collins	4		2/3	1/1		7	4/7	7/9	16/17
Black	2		1/1			12	2/4	2/5	15/16
Bell	1	0/1	1/1	9/9		9	2/8	5/9	29/31
Johnson				1/1		1	1/1	1/1	1/1
Sainristil		2/2				3	3/3		3/5
Jackson							0/1		2/2
McKeon			1/1	1/1		5	0/1	2/3	7/7
Eubanks				1/1		4	0/3	6/7	15/16
All									1/1
Schoonmaker									2/2
Charbonnet						4		0/1	7/7
Turner						1			3/3
Mason							0/1
Haskins									3/3

Routes: Collins ++, DPJ +, Bell +-

Ronnie Bell is all over this UFR both blocking and receiving. His most impressive play of the day is probably one of his blocks but let's also put in a shout for his body control on the slot fade:

Easy to see that end up taking him off stride or even off his feet. Bell's demonstrated some pretty good YAC both avoiding people and powering through guys at the end of runs; he's got reliable hands outside of, you know, that; he had a crushing game blocking; he's legit. The one thing we haven't seen yet is Bell skying for a contested catch a la Collins, probably because he's on the same team as Collins. That is reported to be in his toolbox.

Fellow not-giant person Mike Sainrisitil also redeemed his drop against Maryland with two of the better catches of the year, both diving grabs to rescue short balls. The second got a replay that demonstrated how impressive it was:

The first was similar; I do have a sneaking suspicion that the reason the play broke down was freshman stuff. Sainristil runs past the LB to the inside, but then turns left and ends up directly behind the guy.

If that's an option route it's the wrong option. Patterson is staring at this and seem to anticipate Sainristil breaking the other way; he bugs out as soon as Sainristil turns.

WR #19 innermost to top

But hey, nice catch.

 

The end-around from Jackson was fine; he's fast and got to run to the edge unimpeded. The jet sweep was more of an eye-opener, as he's got to bend a long way around a DE and then cuts up just inside his teammate, running through an arm tackle:

Would like to see him downfield some.

I see your running back dentente is over.

I wouldn't say it's over, but we are seeing an end to the lovely era where RBs weren't picking up many minuses. Charbonnet had an opportunity to cut this outside and get a big gain but didn't downshift to see what the outcome of the Mason block was going to be and ended up running into a LB:

e

In a way this is a positive because even the runs that didn't work particularly well were errors instead of Michigan getting overwhelmed. That is a ton of room with just one MSU LB in it.

Patterson must have been awesome.

uh

Seriously?

Please don't jump down my throat about this but he graded out only decently.

SHEA PATTERSON

	Good				Neutral			Bad					Ovr
Game	DO	CA	SCR		PR	MA		BA	TA	IN	BR		DSR	PFF
MTSU	2	14(3)	3		4	3(1)		1	2	4(2)*	2*		70%	-
Army	1	17(2)+++	1		1	3		-	6*	5	-		61%	-
Wisconsin	2	15(3)++	1		7	7		1*	2*	5	2*		63%	-
Rutgers	4	11(1)+	1		1	5		-	1*	3	-		79%	-
Iowa	-	15(4)+	2		2	1		-	4**	3	3*		56%	-
Illinois	-	10+	1		-	3		-	1	7	1(1)		58%	-
Penn State	2	25(5)++	2		1	8(2)		-	3	7(1)	2		69%	-
Notre Dame (rain)		2+			1	4		-		1	1*		50%	-
Notre Dame (clear)	1	4				2		-	1*	1*	1		62%	-
Maryland	1	10(2)				3		1	-	6*	-		56%	-
Michigan State	3+	18(5)+			2	6		-	3	5(1)	1		66%	-

Should be noted that this performance is better than the unweighted downfield success rate indicates since it includes no very bad * events, 3 DOs, two + events for making throws in the face of pressure or on the move, and just one BR—usually the most damaging kind of bad thing. It was his best game of the year, with Penn State its main competitor.

A lot of his yards came on screens and passes that were dead simple—bubbles, throws in the flat to DPJ he turned into 18 yards, the RPO hitches to Bell, etc. He did dial up some pinpoint passes, none better than his first downfield attempt of the game. This looks like a situation where Patterson legitimately has no one because MSU runs a coverage that beats Michigan's route scheme. Patterson drifts left, anticipating that Bell is going to clear a zone defender, and then flicks a sidearm pass to convert:

That's outstanding. Patterson also had pinpoint 20+ yard shots to Collins, for a buttzone TD…

…and Black:

And controversial third down conversion argument doesn't happen this week because Patterson gets this comeback out on time and hits his guy in stride:

This was pretty good.

There were still numerous issues. Patterson had a lot of marginal balls that took his WRs off their feet when YAC beckoned, including both Sainristil incidents embedded above. I wasn't a huge fan of his presnap decision to target Collins on a hitch on the fourth and three. Yes, it was interference, but the quads side of this pops McKeon wide open for an easy conversion.

TE #84 motioning to the bottom

A man-to-man hitch at the sticks when the D knows where the first down line is always going to be contested.

The ground game was a mixed bag. Patterson had a couple of productive pulls and then missed this one:

That's got both the jet guy and the tight end leading out and no MSU edge. This game was going pretty well by that point but even so I bet Gattis had an internal OC RichRod meltdown on that one. Meanwhile the QB draw really should have worked but Patterson put himself on the wrong side of the Ruiz/Onwenu double:

Klatt had some remarkable stats about the regression in Michigan's QB ground game this year and things were still pretty wonky. At this point I'll take a couple of pulls that work even if the other stuff is bad.

Any future stuff?

Aside from the freshman WRs the most notable next-year event was Hayes finding his way onto the field as a bonus OL again. He did pretty well with it. The meat of this play is Runyan and Bredeson grinding Williams into the endzone but we have a pretty good idea what those guys are like and whether they'll be around next year (no). Hayes, lined up just outside of them and wearing a nameless #80, gets a tough task against Willekes, who's lined up inside of him and needs to be turned out. Hayes keeps his feet moving and gets the job done even though he ends up getting flung to the ground at the end of the play:

TE-ish #80 to left

Another year of meat and he should be good to go. If Ruiz comes back I'm pretty comfortable with Hayes/Stueber/Ruiz/Spanellis/Mayfield, or something like that.

Did you find that block on Panasuik that Runyan talked about?

I'm not exactly sure—he said something along the lines of pushing the guy 20 yards downfield, and I didn't see that. This will do, though?

LT #75, LG #74

That is a person who has been sat upon.

Is there nothing to complain about? There must be a complaint!

There are a couple things. I thought Michigan was a little too eager to run out the clock towards the end of the first half and cost themselves some expectation. And their trick play was too cute by half. Let's review:

Michigan brings in McCaffrey, which naturally puts MSU on alert. They have Patterson line up as a WR, then motion him, creating yet further alert. The idea is to threaten a TE post and then throw it back to McCaffrey, but McCaffrey gets knocked over. Have to think this is in part because Michigan's approach to this play was a big waving WE'RE GONNA DO A TRICK HERE approach.

The rich history of the transcontinental at Michigan was not built on waving the big flag. Instead M brought in Charles Woodson to catch the pass, or faked a Brady injury and gave Drew Henson a shot:

The idea is to take attention away from the QB by bringing in Charles Freakin' Woodson, calling a fairly conventional safe thing with your backup QB, or having John Navarre on the field. Putting the backup on the field with Patterson is not the way to do that.

Honestly the thing to do there seems to be just flip it out to Patterson so he can fake the double pass and then run for 8 yards.

Who is Mr. Worldwide?

1. Ronnie Bell. +11.5 on the run chart for a receiver, most of it paving MSU DBs so other guys could get yards. Cut blocking style sort of looks like a highway overpass.
2. Lavert Hill. Very much an unsung hero on this team who makes everyone look better but really he's just here because he stepped out of bounds on an interception so he could flex at Cody White. Evaded a flag like someone hiding under a highway overpass, even.
3. Ben Bredeson. Highest grader on the ground and had to go up against the DTs most of the time; decisively won that but no one really knows because the ground game was a sideshow.

8: Mike Onwenu
5: Khaleke Hudson, Jordan Glasgow, Ronnie Bell
4: Mike Danna, Jon Runyan Jr
3: Zach Charbonnet, Mike Dwumfour, Lavert Hill, Ben Bredeson
2: Carlo Kemp, Ronnie Bell, Josh Uche, Aidan Hutchinson
1: Ryan Hayes, Josh Metellus, Nico Collins, Nick Eubanks

Heroes?

Ronnie Bell, Ronnie Bell, and Ronnie Bell. Collins and DPJ as well. Runyan and Bredeson were dominant. Josh Gattis's gameplan was superb. Shea Patterson stepped up.

Maybe not so heroic?

The running backs didn't make a lot of yards on their own and gave some back. Mayfield was a touch shaky.

What does it mean for Indiana and beyond?

A half season late is better than never. Michigan demolished MSU tactically, and in a maximally Gattis fashion. Let's forget the first five games and keep building on this, a system that took advantage of Michigan's WR talent and stretched MSU to the breaking point.

It is imperative to attack soft corners. It is no coincidence that since Michigan started consistently threatening the edge with their WRs they 1) came back against PSU and nearly tied it, 2) annihilated ND, 3) scuffled with Maryland, and 4) annihilated MSU. They threw two screens against Maryland and didn't run Patterson. Horizontally stretching defenses doesn't just get you yards it stresses the opposition to the breaking point.

Ronnie Bell is a dude. Probably moves outside next year given the shape of the roster and I think he'll be able to hack it there. The block where he redirected mid play and then put someone in the sideline is quite a thing. Also in this department: Collins had an excellent day as a blocker.

Nobody wants any Mason. Mason piled up a bunch of +0.5s because no MSU player, even Panasuik, a DL, was willing to stand in with him. Instead they all tried to cut him.

Mayfield continues to Mayfield. This means he gives up about two pressures a game on which he stays attached and doesn't get his QB annihilated, except Willekes did get him once here. He alternates crushing blocks with youthful indiscretions. A lot of potential. Chase Young rather looms.