Putting the pre-season to bed. [David Wilcomes]

Upon Further Review 2023: Defense vs Maryland Comment Count

Seth November 22nd, 2023 at 9:05 AM

UFR GLOSSARY is here.

FORMATION NOTES: Maryland mostly stayed in 11 personnel even when they went to twins formations like the below. I called this defensive front from Michigan "Nk Over!" with the exclamation mark denoting extra wide splits between the DL.

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Also for those of you who weren't around when I was doing the FFFFs, "TaTa Time" is a Maryland-specific play where Taulia Tagovailoa abandons the pocket and runs around 15 to 40 yards behind the line of scrimmage with various slow linemen in pursuit. Results of TaTa Time vary.

SUBSTITUTION NOTES: The big thing was Sainristil playing cornerback—I had him for 14 snaps at CB and PFF had him for 10, which I take for a difference of assignment (corner/nickel) vs. alignment (outside/slot), and Ja'den McBurrows coming in for a dozen snaps at nickel. Mike Barrett went out for a quarter and Hausmann got in as much as he did, with Rolder getting half a dozen snaps near the goal line. Jenkins/Graham/Grant and the four DEs got about equal snaps, with Harrell and Graham leading the way. Benny and Goode were out there about a third of the time. Paige got some time in the nickel as well, with Quinten Johnson or Keon Sabb added. They each got about a third of the snaps in rotation as well. Will Johnson went the whole way; Wallace got pulled for McBurrows when Sainristil went outside.

[After THE JUMP: Vanilla bean.]

Ln Dn Dst OForm DPack Front Hi Type Rush Play Player Yds EPA
O26 1st 10 Pistol Trips 4-2-5 Nk Tite 2 off Run   Stretch Graham 3 -0.31
McGregor(+0.5) and Graham(+1) get across doubles to force a cutback. Jenkins(+1) crosses the LT to force another bounce and now Wallace and Moore can arrive to clean up. RPS-1 Michigan was playing two safeties high. Explanation in Neck Sharpies.
O29 2nd 7 Pistol Wk 4-2-5 Nk Split 2 off Run   Stretch Jenkins 6 0.28
Also Neck Sharpied. Michigan trying to blitz backside (RPS-1) which gets Barrett stuck behind the play. Graham(+0.5) hops over a cut block and will relevant if Jenkins(-1) can get prevent the LT from releasing; he can't. Moore gets cracked, held so no minus because he did get playside. Johnson(+0.5) replaces, sets up in the lane and takes on the RT to force a cutback to where Colson(+0.5) got around the LT to flow.
O35 3rd 1 Empty 2x2 R-Flare 4-2-5 Nk Wide 1.5 off Pass 4 Flat Moore 10 1.76
CB amoeba blitz with Wallace and Moore(-1, cov-2) isn't getting over fast enough to cover. Easy conversion throwing to the first read over pressure. RPS-2.
O45 1st 10 Gun Wk Bunch 4-2-5 3-4 Tite 1.5 off Pass 4 RB Dumpoff Harrell 8 0.94
Nk Amoeba, but with the bunch Sainristil is naturally chipped and everyone is picked up (PR-1). McGregor(+0.5) is peeking under the RG but there's an RB open underneath that Harrell(-1, cov-1) was supposed to go get.
M47 2nd 2 Gun 2x2 Stacks 4-2-5 Nk Even 1 press Run   Power CT Benny 1 -0.99
Stewart(+1) sets a hard edge inside then moves the puller into the RB's path. The LT leaves to get Colson(-0.5) who stepped down a bit too far, but as soon as he does Benny(+2) rips out of the LG's grip and catches the RB in the lane and spins him down.
M46 3rd In Goal Line 5-2-4 Goal Line 1 off Play-Action n/a Bootleg Barrett 6 1.14
Fake sneak, Barrett(-1, cov-1) is watching his gap and slow to get out on his guy. RPS-1.
M40 1st 10 Gun Twins 4-2-5 Nk Even 2 off RPO n/a Slants/Stretch Paige 16 0.51
RPO holds Paige(-2, cov-2) but he's got to actually take the slant route not just stay back there to inhibit. Think this was an RPS-1 as well; Gattis knows this is a weakness of Michigan that most teams don't look for, since the RPO read usually induces a give, and both safeties are staying high vs pass.
M24 1st 10 Offset Twins F-In 4-2-5 Nk Even 2 off Pass n/a Split Flow Flat Colson 1 -0.33
Oh man it feels like forever since we got a You tried to edge Junior Colson(+2, tackling+1) play. WR in the slot puts his arms up as he picks off Paige(-1) but this is a legal block behind the LOS. Doesn't matter because JC runs it down and ropes it down with help from Sainristil(+1) shoving his WR up to the LOS.
M23 2nd 9 Gun Twins 4-2-5 Nk Over! 1 off Run   Power Barrett 2 -0.28
UMD has a huge split btw the LT and LT, which M thinks is a run tell because Moore is in the box. It's an awkward Power run that gets two guys down-blocking Goode, which means Barrett(+1, tackling+1) gets a free trip to the backfield with the puller. RB has to bend around him and Barrett gets a shoe as he goes by, losing one of his own in the process. Think Barrett was supposed to get playside of the puller but results-based. Graham(+0.5) two-gapped the LT who was ripping him back by the shoulder or else this is a stuff. Colson(-1) was looking backside all play. RPS+1.
M21 3rd 7 Empty 4x1 Bunch 4-2-5 Nk Split 1 off Pass 4 TaTa Time Goode 4 -0.08
Snap gets Colson(+1) to betray his blitz. Amoeba brings him drops Harrell. Passes can't develop because Colson is peeking through the RT and TaTa is spooked. Goode(+2, PR+2) round the C and leaves him clutching the value of an Ohio State fan's opinion, chasing. TaTa Time! McGregor is outrun but bends Taulia 14 yards behind the LOS. Goode pursues, Harrell(+1) makes it across the field to get him out 4 yards short. Refs-1 give TaTa an extra yard. They take the points anyway.
Drive Notes: FG(35). 0-3. 6 min 1st Q.
Ln Dn Dst OForm DPack Front Hi Type Rush Play Player Yds EPA
O25 1st 10 Pistol Trips 4-2-5 Nk Over! 1 off PRO n/a TE Pop/IZ Moore Inc -0.70
Moore(-2, cov-2) sees the TE block and sucks down on run action. Maryland pops a TE loose behind him. I was wrong on the podcast; the OL is just 2 yards downfield when the throw is released and legal. RPS-1 this messed with Moore's assignment. It's overthrown and the TE has to lay out, can't make the catch. Would have been a big gain otherwise; Hat-3.
O25 2nd 10 Gun TTE 4-2-5 404 Tite 2 off Pass 4 Fly Johnson Inc -0.35
425 personnel (Paige at nickel, Sainristil at CB, +QJo), Nk Amoeba blitz. Johnson(-2, cov-2) is alone with a cushion outside, doesn't route the WR outside the numbers. Wind carries it a bit long and OOB but WR had space. Hat-2.
O25 3rd 10 Empty 3x2 4-2-5 Nk Even 0 1.5 off Pass 5 Strip Sack Barrett -25 -6.84
Late shift to a man-1 look, UMD expecting the edge to drop into an amoeba and are doubling Grant (RPS+2, PR+3), which means nobody gets Derrick Moore. TaTa has to bail…right into where Barrett(+2) has looped and closed the distance. Tagovailoa has the ball one-handed (Hat-3), Barrett knocks it out, and D-Mo(+1) scoops it up for the score. Both Graham(+0.5) and Stewart(+0.5) beat blocks too. I know this is a lot of plusing but this is comprehensive.
Drive Notes: Defensive Touchdown. 14-3. 2 min 1st Q.
Ln Dn Dst OForm DPack Front Hi Type Rush Play Player Yds EPA
O25 1st 10 Gun Str RB 4-2-5 Nk Split 2 off Run   Power CF Goode 2 -0.35
The counter to stretch that we talked about yesterday in Neck Sharpies. McGregor(+0.5) restricts space with a hard edge. Goode(+2) takes the initial contact then swims through his double to stuff at the LOS. Jenkins(+1) beat the RG to playside to help.
O27 2nd 8 Gun Trips RB 4-2-5 Nk Over! C 2 fld Pass 4 Sack Harrell -9 -0.90
Amoeba drops McGregor brings Barrett at the LT and the RB has left so nobody picks up Harrell(+1, RPS+2, PR+3) who gets a free blindside sack.
O18 3rd 17 Gun 2x2 4-2-5 Nk Split! 1.5 off Pass 4 TaTa Time McGregor Inc -0.05
Six-man protection and McGregor(+1, RPS+1, PR+3) has a late stunt with Jenkins(+1) who takes enough attention that Braiden can come inside. TaTa Time! They bracket Tagovailoa who stiff-arms Jenkins, runs three yards into the endzone, and throws it OOB at least 10 yards short of the LOS. Refs-2. EO1Q.
Drive Notes: Blocked Punt (Safety). 16-3. <1 min 1st Q. BALL DON'T LIE!
Ln Dn Dst OForm DPack Front Hi Type Rush Play Player Yds EPA
O25 1st 10 Pistol Str 4-2-5 404 Tite 1 off Run   Stretch Sainristil 0 -0.70
Teach tape stretch defense, discussed on Sharpies. Sainristil(+1) makes this play by flying up inside the slot to set an edge and force a cutback. Colson(+0.5) acts quickly to get playside of the LT, D-Mo(+1) got playside of and shed the LG; Grant(+1) lets the C depart then arms off the RG and pursues. They three stick at the LOS.
O25 2nd 10 Gun Wk Flex 4-2-5 Nk Over 1 fld Pass 5 Hitch Wallace 14 1.93
Quick shot under soft coverage should be four yards but Wallace(-2, tackling-2, cov push) whiffs at the POA and the WR gets to rumble for a 1st. Barrett hurt chasing him down.
O39 1st 10 Empty 3x2 4-2-5 Nk Even 2 off Pass n/a Tunnel Screen Colson 5 0.11
D-Mo comes close to batting this. Hausmann(+1) pops the TE into the ballcarrier, Colson waited a heartbeat but is off like a bullet at the throw so no minus. RPS-1 though because M was playing a S way high and only way to get to this is the MLB.
O44 2nd 5 Gun Wk RB 4-2-5 Nk Over 1 off Pass 4 Hook D.Moore 11 1.27
Amoeba drops D-Mo(-1, cov-1) who's covering some Maryland logo-covered grass but not the WR next to him.
M45 1st 10 Gun Wk Tight 4-2-5 Nk Over 1 off Pass 4 RB Dumpoff Sainristil 14 0.63
Backup safeties in. Grant(-1, PR-1) tries to spin inside and falls down, mostly on his own, then sparts for a hold. TaTa steps up and drops it to his RB between a too-conservative Sainristil(-1) and Colson(-1, cov-2) who's covering grass.
M31 1st 10 Empty 3x2 4-2-5 Nk Even 1 fld Pass 4 H Out Sabb 4 -0.05
Tempo(26). Quick dink that carries the TE to the ground. Sabb(-1, cov-1) didn't react in time but it's probably 6 yards if accurate.
M27 2nd 6 Offset Wk 4-2-5 Nk Under 2 off Pass n/a Split Flow Flat Wallace 4 -0.06
Tempo(29). Reasonably well-defended. Cracking WR gets a hold on Sainristil(-1) who gambled on coming up inside and thus picks off Colson. Wallace(+1) comes up and sticks for a minimal gain.
M23 3rd 2 Gun 3x1 4-2-5 Nk Split 1 press Run   ZR IZ Colson 3 0.33
Colson(-1) is hanging out waiting for an RPO that can't come because it's press man. Hausmann(+1) has a couple of gaps to worry about, gets around a releasing OL to stick but after the 1st down.
M20 1st 10 Gun Twins RB 4-2-5 Nk Over 2 bdy Run   Double Counter Graham 3 -0.12
Weird play that might be the LT getting the wrong call or they mean for him to reverse course. McGregor(+2) isn't fooled, knocks the kickout over and causes a backup. RB cuts it back into Graham(+1).
M17 2nd 8 Gun Trips RB 4-2-5 Nk Split 2 press Pass 4 Crossers Colson 16 1.80
Graham(+1, PR+1) beats the C who just gets enough of his belt as he goes by to prevent a knockdown. Both Sainristil and Colson(-2, cov-3) are tracking a hook route and nobody picks up the TE crossing underneath. It's possible this is Sainristil leaving his zone but I think this is "Stubbie" coverage and Colson is the guy Hausmann is pointing at to switch with him when the crosser goes under him. If it's not on him apologies. Luck-1 as Dyches goes down at the 2 but on top of Colson and gets to roll off him for a crucial extra yard.
M1 1st Goal Ace Heavy 6-2-3 Goal Line n/a Play-Action n/a Bootleg Colson Inc -0.96
Colson(+1) sees Jenkins has been cut down by an RB and decides to shoot up. There's a TE open for a window but Colson is in the way and that guy drifts (Hat-1) out of the window and into Hausmann's coverage. Results-based charting.
M1 2nd Goal I-Heavy 6-2-3 Goal Line n/a Run   Lead Dive Rolder -1 -0.64
Jimmy Rolder(+2) sees the fullback heading off-tackle and beats him to the gap. Graham(+1) came through from the inside to get at the RB's feet as well.
M2 3rd Goal Empty Trips Bunch 5-2-4 Goal Line n/a PRO n/a Flash Screen/QB Counter   1 -0.24
Neat play design from Gattis (RPS-1) and M is not lined up, with Moore(-2, cov-1, tackling-1) the late-coming missing man as M has 2 defenders vs the RB and two blockers lined up outside. Backwards throw (Hat-1) gives him a chance to come under a gotta-call-that hold on the WR that Wallace(+1) beat (Refs-2). Moore gets to it but doesn't make the tackle. Colson(+1) arrives from far away to tackle a foot short of the goal (after review).
M1 4th Goal Goal Line 6-2-3 Goal Line n/a Run   Tush Push Grant 1 2.76
Short at first as Grant(+1) and Jenkins(+1) got low, but Terps have an OL in the backfield and he pushes it over.
Drive Notes: Touchdown. 23-10. 2 min 2nd Q. Next drive is just a kneeldown and not charted.
Ln Dn Dst OForm DPack Front Hi Type Rush Play Player Yds EPA
O22 1st 10 Pistol Str 4-2-5 Nk Over 1.5 fld Run   Stretch McGregor 1 -0.51
Jenkins(+1) blows up the frontside, Graham(+0.5) and Colson(+0.5) are playside of their guys. McGregor(+1) comes around a TE who hooks his arm and takes him down (refs-1) but in the lane. Sainristil(+0.5) fixes and everyone rallies. Fox(-4) puts up a "Michigan hasn't given up a score in the 3rd Q all year" graphic so the rest of this drive is on them.
O23 2nd 9 Offset Str RB 4-2-5 Nk Split 2 fld Pass 4 Fly Wallace 34 3.43
Barrett tips a blitz, they check to a 1v1. McGregor(+2, PR+2) beats the LT clean and it's a moment from a strip sack but this is a 2020 MSU chuck-and-hope. Wallace(-1, cov-1, Hat+2) is in good coverage but doesn't turn around and gets mossed.
M43 1st 10 Offset Trips 4-2-5 Nk Split 1.5 bdy Run   ZR IZ Jenkins 3 -0.31
M still playing 2-high (RPS-1), leaves Jenkins(+2) two-gapping the RG because he can do that.
M40 2nd 7 Gun Wk Flex 4-2-5 Nk Split 1.5 bdy Run   Power Read Colson 4 -0.13
A lot of space here for Colson(+2) alone with a lead blocker and the RB after Graham(-0.5) gets turned in and M has 1-high vs a QB-involved run (RPS-1). McGregor(+0.5) was pass rushing but cuts that off and gets inside to help but mostly Colson shoulders the lead blocker and tackles himself, with Graham fighting back and bringing the grabby G down with him.
M36 3rd 3 Gun Twins RB 4-2-5 Nk Over 1 press Play-Action 4 TaTa Time Graham Inc(+15) 1.15
Nk Amoeba, Sainristil(-1, tackling-2) has a free run (RPS+2, PR+2) but TaTa dodges. Jenkins(-1) comes up and also grabs air. Graham(-2) is free now, TaTa throws it at nobody, and Graham hits him half a second late. Hat+2 only TaTa avoids a sack here. I know this is how they call it these days because QBs are more precious than Buckeye feelings but I can still be grumbly about it.
M21 1st 10 Gun Twins 4-2-5 425 Over 2 off PRO n/a Slants/Stretch Johnson 13 0.31
Paige has the first slant covered this time, but Q-Jo(-1) is bracketing it, which means Johnson(-1, cov-2, tackling-1) has no help over the second slant. He misses the tackle as well. I charged Quinten for the coverage but it may be RPS and they're leaving WJ on an island, YMMV.
M8 1st Goal Pistol FB Tight 4-2-5 425 Over 2 off Play-Action 4 TaTa Time Sainristil Inc -0.30
Grant(+1) gets playside of the RG and D-Mo(+1, PR+2) is chasing so TaTa chucks at an out that Sainristil(+2, cov+2) has blanketed. Luck-2 it's inaccurate Sainristil's INT occurs out of bounds. RPS+1 the LBs didn't bite.
M8 2nd Goal Gun Wk 4-2-5 Nk Over 2 press Run   ZR IZ Keeper Paige 7 0.16
Stewart(-1) is supposed to force a give but commits to the RB and gets edged. Johnson(+0.5) shoves the WR to set an edge, Paige(-1, tackling-1) gets spun through to turn 3rd & goal at the 5 into 3rd & goal at the 1.
M1 3rd Goal Offset 3x1 5-2-4 Goal Line 0 press RPO   Dive/Slants D.Moore 0 -0.33
Benny(+1) gets the LG set up in the backfield to cut off the main avenue and allow D-Mo(+2) a chance to crash inside and wrangle the RB down from behind. RB (Hat+1) stretches as he's going down to get across the LOS and put them in sneak territory.
M1 4th Goal Goal Line 6-2-3 Goal Line n/a Run   Tush Push Goode 1 2.76
They get it.
Drive Notes: Touchdown. 23-17. 10 min 3rd Q. Annoyance level growing.
Ln Dn Dst OForm DPack Front Hi Type Rush Play Player Yds EPA
O24 1st 10 Gun Str Tight 4-2-5 5-2 Odd 2 fld Pass 4 Slot Fade Wallace Inc -0.67
Nk personnel and 5-2 means Sainristil at edge. He drops into zone, Wallace(-3, cov-3) has a big cushion but bites on an outside move and lets the WR run right by him. Stewart(+1, PR+2) is coming up the middle on a stunt because Graham(+1) took the RG's, RT's, and RB's attentions. RG gets away with a little facemask (refs-1) which is just enough for TaTa to launch it, but that or the wind causes it to sail over the Felton's head. Hat-2.
O24 2nd 10 Empty 3x2 4-2-5 Nk split 2 off Pass 4 Flags Moore 17 1.24
This is REALLY conservative from Moore(-2, cov-2) who's watching the QB's eyes when he needs to be hammering down on this skinny post by the WR. Dude is allowed to catch it in stride on the hash 9 yards downfield. Sainristil(-1) was itchy to get to INT range in the flat and got crossed by this guy without really impeding him.
O41 1st 10 Gun Trips RB 4-2-5 Nk Split 1 off Pass 4 Mesh Moore 1 -0.92
Tempo(27). They zone off vs Mesh, Stewart(+1, PR+1) pops around the RT and Moore(+2, cov+1, tackling+1) flies down to upend the TE at the LOS. He gets the shoes only but it spins Dyches for a half yard gain. Results-based, but if Dyches stays on his feet he's gone.
O42 2nd 9 Gun Trips RB 4-2-5 Nk Split 1 off Pass 4 Flags Sainristil INT -4.50
Tempo(25). Graham(-0.5) almost jumps at the hard count, manages to stay onside as the C snaps and points at him. Amoeba bring WLB, picked up, clean pocket (PR-1). TaTa thinks he's taught the nickel a lesson and throws the hitch off the same play from two snaps ago but Sainristil(+3, cov+3) wasn't listening. Seam was probably open again.
Drive Notes: Interception. 23-17. 7 min 3rd Q.
Ln Dn Dst OForm DPack Front Hi Type Rush Play Player Yds EPA
O16 1st 10 Gun Trips 4-2-5 404 Tite 2 fld Run   QB G lead McBurrows -1 -0.52
Sainristil to CB this drive. Read is on the MLB going with the frontside G pull. He doesn't, TaTa pulls, and runs into a wall where McBurrows(+3) ran through the slot receiver who gets throw back into the QB's knees a yard in the backfield. LOL! Colson(+0.5) and Johnson(+0.5) also whipped their blockers and might have made plays on the ball. UMD was 4v3 out there too. Lol.
O15 2nd 11 Gun TTB 4-2-5 Nk Split 2 off Pass 4 TaTa Time McGregor Inc -0.17
Coverage is good for 2 beats (cov+2) and then Goode(+1, PR+1) comes through a double and it's TaTa time with McGregor in pursuit. McGregor falls down but Goode keeps up and Jenkins gets out there and TaTa throws it away near a WR blanketed by Sainristil(+1).
O15 3rd 11 Empty 3x2 4-2-5 Nk Eagle 0 1 press Pass 5 Tunnel Screen McGregor 13 1.42
Good check from TaTa (RPS-2). McGregor's job is to rush but Goode(-1) lets the RT and RG release with no track-back and now M is outmanned by two. Q-Jo(+1) handles it responsibly, funneling to help and tracking it down but only after the 1st.
O28 1st 10 Gun Wk 4-2-5 Nk Under 2 off RPO   Power/Slants Sabb 7 0.65
Backside check is just one look but reading Sabb on FS to keep a light box. Colson(-0.5) also thinks he's being read and hangs backside. Puller goes outside of McGregor, Sabb(+0.5) gets down and funnels to Colson. RPS-1 playing way soft again.
O35 2nd 3 Gun Wk 4-2-5 Nk Split 2 press Run   Split Zone Colson 7 0.65
Goode(-1) gets crushed by a double and put inside the RG like he's pinching. If he is McGregor(+0.5) didn't get the message because he's shuffling despite having LB help behind him, but he does get across the TE finally and tackle if not in time to prevent a 1st down. Colson was way out in the flat expecting split flow (RPS-1).
O42 1st 10 Gun Trips RB 4-2-5 Nk Split 2 off Pass 4 Slot Fade Sainristil 24 1.62
This looks like the tunnel screen they ran 2x already and is supposed to get Sainristil to let the slot get behind him. He doesn't, is running a Stover step behind, and TaTa (Hat+2) drops it in the bucket. Anything less accurate and Sainristil(-1, cov-1) has a play so not even mad. Okay maybe he needs to put his hand up faster.
M34 1st 10 Gun Twins RB 4-2-5 Nk Split 2 press Pass 4 Fly Johnson 33 2.00
Live I swore it was a push-off but Johnson(-2, cov-2) just loses a step near the end and TaTa (Hat+2) places another one perfectly in his receiver's bucket. Wanna believe it was the wind. Totally not applicable to forthcoming Marvin Harrison events. Nope.
M1 1st Goal Goal Line 6-2-3 Goal Line n/a Run   Tush Push Jenkins 0 -0.96
They get half a yard.
M1 2nd Goal Goal Line 6-2-3 Goal Line n/a Run   Tush Push Jenkins 1 1.87
They get half a yard again.
Drive Notes: Touchdown. 29-24. <1 min 3rd Q. Wind changes sides.
Ln Dn Dst OForm DPack Front Hi Type Rush Play Player Yds EPA
O20 1st 10 Gun Trips RB 4-2-5 404 Tite 1.5 press Run   ZR Power T Grant 6 0.29
Light box and RG gets an immediate release on Barrett (RPS-1) with no reaction from the front to the LT pulling. D-Mo(-0.5) gets kicked, Barrett gets a G in the face and there's a lane that Grant(+0.5) gets across the C to chase until Moore can come down.
O26 2nd 4 Gun 2x2 4-2-5 Nk Under 2 off Run   ZR Power T Benny 2 -0.46
So nice they run it twice. D-Mo(-1) flies upfield for a pass rush so there's a big gap that McBurrows(+1) sees and flies into before the slot can block him. They never get there because the LT trips (Hat-1) getting into his pull and is late getting outside. Benny(+2) two-gaps at the POA, back tries to cut inside, and Benny ends him.
O28 3rd 2 Pistol Trips F-Jet 4-2-5 Nk Split 1 press Run   Arc Read Give Barrett 3 0.95
Colson blitzes the frontside and there's a wide gap that Barrett(-1, tackling-2) shoots but can't make the tackle. Benny(+1) swam around a double; both guys go down on his legs or else he's got a shot at a stuff as well. Paige(-0.5) and then Grant(-1) miss chances to tackle as well and the back squirts out for an uncanny 1st down. Colson hit him too but he's got a cast on that hand. This is Maryland's last positive EPA play by the way.
O31 1st 10 Empty 2x2 4-2-5 404 Tite 2 off Pass 4 Curl Johnson 2 -0.44
Quick under shot that's 3-4 yards if accurate because Johnson(+1, cov+1) reacted quickly. It's low and WR digs it out for 2 yards.
O33 2nd 8 Gun Trips RB 4-2-5 Nk Over 1.5 off Pass 4 Hook McBurrows Inc -0.77
Graham(+1, PR+1) spins through the RG and nearly gets a hand on it. WR stops, McBurrows(+2, cov+2) crosses him and bats it down. WR sparts for a flag. Same route combo as the one that set up UMD's first TD and Colson takes the drag so there's your answer, probably. Will Johnson was hunting an INT over there too.
O33 3rd 8 Empty 3x2 4-2-5 Nk Eagle 0 1.5 off Penalty   False Start n/a (-5) -0.34
Oops. Hat-1. Way to go Michigan fans!
O28 3rd 13 Gun 2x2 RB 4-2-5 Nk Split! 2 off Pass 4 Sack Graham -10 -0.23
Graham(+2, PR+3) is coming so hard the LG can't react to McGregor(+1) stunting inside him. LT looks at this and he's dead. TaTa spins away from BMG into OMG.
Drive Notes: Punt. 29-24. 8 min 4th Q.
Ln Dn Dst OForm DPack Front Hi Type Rush Play Player Yds EPA
O10 1st 10 Pistol TTE 4-2-5 Nk Over 2 off Run   Split Zone Grant 1 -0.29
Harrell(+2) hooks the releasing TE and comes way inside, stopping the kickout then shimmying under him. This takes away most gaps, and then an activating Hausmann(+0.5) draws half of Grant(+2)'s double. One LG vs Grant isn't fair. RB churns out 1.
O11 2nd 9 Gun 2x2 4-2-5 Nk Split 2 press Pass 4 Sack Grant -9 -0.30
Graham(+2) push-pulls the C and throws him to the ground. Barrett showed blitz before the snap and the RG is still watching him (Hat-1) as Grant(+1, PR+3) comes straight up the now abandoned A gap he was supposed to be attacking on the twist. LG can't block both, tackles Graham by the shoulderpad, KG won't let TaTa escape and sacks at the 2. Goodnight.
O2 3rd 18 Gun Str 4-2-5 Nk Under 2 off Pass 4 Fly Sainristil INT -3.47
Before this: Locksley takes a TO to save 1 yard. Grant(+0.5) stunts with McG and the LT is bending into the pocket while Harrell(+1, PR+1) has the RT beat so time to chuck it into the wind. The wind slows the ball, Sainristil(+3, cov+3) slows for it, there's a brief moment when we're all a bit worried he's misjudged it because Felton is behind him but nope he pickin'. Felton then drags him down by the facemask (Refs-2) which shoulda put M in FG range.
Drive Notes: Interception. 29-24. 5 min 4th Q. Doman drops them back at the 1.
Ln Dn Dst OForm DPack Front Hi Type Rush Play Player Yds EPA
O1 1st 10 Gun TTE 4-2-5 Nk Even 2 off Run   Stretch Colson 3 -0.22
Nk Blitz into this (RPS+1) draws the slot and TE which means nobody for Colson(+1) who shoots in and stuffs.
O4 2nd 10 Gun Twins 4-2-5 Nk Over 2 fld Pass 4 Grounding Goode Inc(-4) -1.79
D-Mo(+2) and Goode(+1, PR+3) stunt the frontside, and Moore has an little extra shove on the RG as he goes by which makes it impossible for that guy to pick up Goode. TaTa is about to get sack and grounds it 12-14 yards from the nearest receiver. Hard disagree with Brian's surprise they didn't call it; this is extreme.
Drive Notes: Safety. 31-24. 3 min 4th Q. Michigan grinds out the rest. EOG.

This could have gone better.

It also could have gone a lot worse, as Tagovailoa missed some grand opportunities. The scoop and score that momentarily turned this into Another 2023 Michigan Blowout was preceded by the Maryland quarterback overthrowing his tight end on an RPO that Rod Moore completely failed to cover, and a fade that had space to catch and maybe run behind Will Johnson. Two Michigan sacks featured unblocked defensive ends that the Terps thought were dropping into coverage. Tagovailoa also threw two picks, one when he hit an open seam route that he'd hit for a chunk gain two plays earlier.

Well a lot of teams win football games if they do everything right.

Exactly. They also mossed Wallace for a long pass on 3rd & long when McGregor was a micrometer from sacking. Tagovailoa dropped two inch-perfect bombs over Sainristil and Johnson. Michigan blew a shot at a 4th & 3 when Graham got a (for this day and age) late hit. The TD drive after halftime survived all kinds of slings and arrows to come off. An inch, a spot, a stretch, a spin, or a slightly better tackling job on one of six plays in the redzone prevents them from getting within Tush Push range of three touchdowns that needed it. They also blew a handful of plays that were designed just for this game. And of course Tagovailoa avoided twice as many sacks as he took.

This is the Tao of TaTa. You can take a highlight reel from any game of his and make a case he's a Heisman candidate; you can also take a lowlight package from any of his games when he looks like a 2023 Nebraska starter. He makes uncanny throws, uncommonly bad reads, and goes on incredible backfield sojourns where it's even odds he makes a play, makes it back to the line of scrimmage, takes a drive-killing sack, or throws an interception.

The TaTa Time events in this game were the above, the grounding in the endzone, another play that ought to have been intentional grounding in the endzone, the Graham late hit, the one Sainristil caught out of bounds, and another almost McGregor sack that was thrown away. A typical distribution of TaTa Time results probably nets Michigan another turnover and turns two Maryland touchdown drives into punts. If you want to include the sack-strip as a TaTa Time incident the events even out.

Not counting the tush-pushes, Michigan held Maryland to 2.8 YPC on 20 called runs, 4.8 yards/play on 9 RPOs and play-action passes, and 6.8 YPA on 30 passes, which is a solid outing versus a Top-25 offense with a fourth-year starter at quarterback.

Just saying, it doesn't look like it from a drive perspective.

As with most of Michigan's opponents this year, Terrapin offensive possessions either couldn't get off the mat or went down the field. There were just more of the latter than any other outing. Out of tend drives (not counting the kneeldown):

  • Touchdown drives of 84 (9 plays), 78 (9 plays), and 75 (14 plays) yards.
  • An 11-play, 57-yard FG drive to open the game.
  • A 6-and-out and 3-and out that lost 2 and 7 yards respectively.
  • A 4-and-INT, a 3-and-INT, a 3-and-Fumble, and a safety on 2nd down after starting at their own 1.

This is some Extreme Tao of Taulia, where there's a lot of ups, some huge downs, and when you're all done you're right back where you started.

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The above graph also shows the dichotomy of Maryland's offense with the wind in the 2nd and 3rd quarters, when the Terps gained 7.1 yards per play, and against the wind, when they were held to 1.8 (the fumble return was 4 yards and doesn't change this).

Accounting for this makes it start to seem more like a typical 2023 Michigan game, where the defense was playing prevent in the first half and anything in the second half had to be achieved through explosives. The 3rd quarter TD drive that started all the collar-tugging was a 34-yard mossing on 2nd & 9 from the Maryland 23 followed shortly thereafter by a 15-yard personal foul on 3rd & 3 from the Michigan 36 after Jenkins missed a sack at the 45. The other 3rd quarter TD drive converted a 3rd & 11 from the Maryland 15, then Tagovailoa dropped a pair of inch-perfect deep shots over Sainristil and Johnson. That 3rd & 11 by the way was a lot closer to getting batted down at the line than anyone realized.

My point here isn't that these plays *shouldn't* have happened—Tagovailoa and friends made them happen—but that Maryland was able to convert their rare chunk plays into points more efficiently than previous opponents by stringing them together. Baseball calls this "bunching your hits." Spread them out more and Maryland probably scores ~14 points but also isn't setting Michigan up in scoring position. If four long scoring drives are the story, so are the four times Michigan got the ball at their 49 or better.

Isn't it also true that Michigan broke after they bent?

Michigan did hold the Terps' first drive to a field goal, and probably would done so with their first TD but for Michigan's linebackers busting a switch coverage.

But that's two scoring drives in the first 20 minutes of the game.

So let's talk about how Michigan was reticent to show anything a week before The Game to End All Games. I wrote a Neck Sharpies about how Michigan was sitting in a two-deep shell even more than usual, and how they pretty much got away with it against the run. That's a too-narrow take however, because when the defense is setting up like this, the screens and RPOs are going to have lots of space to rip off 7-8 yard chunks.

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The above is from the Prevent drive in the first half where Maryland went Hitch, Tunnel Screen, Hook, RB dumpoff, quick out, option throw to the flat to get to 3rd & 2 from the Michigan 23.

The bend-don't-break attitude isn't new. What made this game a little different was that Gattis had some RPOs prepared to exploit Michigan's tendencies when trying to defend all of that space below the safeties. This is an RPO that Gattis ran all the time at Alabama and which featured in the spring game his first year in Ann Arbor. Most RPO reads are "run-unless" in concept but this one wants to pass as long as they get off coverage.

The nickel, Paige, is defending that from a "make him hand it off" perspective, but not actually covering it. Also note however how much space there is under the second slant to the bottom that Johnson is over. The next time Maryland ran this RPO Paige did a better job of carrying the receiver, but the safety, Quinten Johnson, was also slamming down on the first slant read, which left Will Johnson set up way high over a receiver running into the space Paige just left.

This isn't an "oh darn we can't cover it" problem; it was open by alignment, and invited because Michigan was setting up in off coverage to an extreme. I track cornerback alignment because it roughly correlates with man/zone coverage. Compared with every other opponent this year, Michigan gave off more zone in the first half than we've seen from them all year.

Opponent (1st Half) Both CBs Off Mixed Press Aligned
ECU 23% 67% 10%
UNLV 55% 41% 5%
Bowling Green 67% 27% 7%
Rutgers 54% 33% 13%
Nebraska 61% 22% 17%
Minnesota 53% 34% 13%
Indiana 35% 42% 23%
Michigan State 32% 55% 14%
Purdue 50% 41% 9%
Penn State 50% 33% 17%
Maryland 73% 15% 12%

This shifted to 50% high and 28% press in the 3rd and 4th quarters, which is in line with their typical alignments (Indiana was the only game where they went hard man coverage in the 2nd half.) Sure enough, as soon as Michigan stopped telegraphing a soft two-high zone every dang down, the spigot of easy underneath yards dried up, and Maryland had to bunch some hits before they lost the wind to put any more points on the board.

We also have to talk about how Gattis and Locksley WANTED THIS ONE. Maryland scripted the hell out of this game, and prepared packages and new looks meant to generate explosives. I screen-capped the screen they ran for 5 yards on 1st down against a soft two-high and embedded the time they used it to convert a 3rd & 11. Right after that they used the same look to try to fool Sainristil into leaving his man. Watch the pump fake.

Sainristil didn't bite, but he gave up his alignment, and can you blame him?

If you want to credit Locksley for that one, this RPO they ran near the goal line is a bit of #SpeedinSpace right out of the 2019 spring game. Michigan is misaligned with just two guys over three to the right, making it an easy read. Even without the read—and Moore hauls ass out there to make it close—it's a great playcall near the goal line, giving the quarterback an outlet to widen the space he's about to run into with a pair of lead blockers.

The RPS in this game came out closer than I expected (+10/-16 = -6). But the rock-paper-scissors metric doesn't tell you who was doing the gambling, and when I looked back over the metrics I found Maryland was the one tossing the dice. Like there's nothing particularly clever about this Amoeba WLB blitz we've seen Michigan run 40 times this year except the strongside DE drops instead of the weakside DE and Maryland's pre-snap read seemed to tell them it was the exact opposite.

This was one drive after the scoop-and-score where Michigan dropped Harrell and looped Barrett, and nobody blocked Derrick Moore.

And the 3rd & 3 that could have been a Jenkins sack before it became a Graham late hit was a giftwrapped Sainristil sack when he came in unblocked. These are all RPS+2 events, but didn't require terrible cleverness. Minter got those simply by varying where his pressures came from, and it was Maryland who stepped into them by trying to get a leg up by playing guessing games.

On the other end, a lot of the RPS- events were "Playing a man down vs the run" or "Playing a man down vs the run again," IE by design. There was a hilariously dumb Ohio State blogger last week who saw the RPS score from this year's Penn State game was a reverse of last year's domination, and tried to say it was caused by Michigan losing their sign-stealer. As with last week, the real context was one of disrespect for the opponent. Michigan's approach to this game was "You suck so much I can have a DT like Jenkins take two gaps and leave my safeties out of it," and Maryland's response was "Yes, I do suck this much."

The open question—which Brian seems to think is already closed—is whether Ohio State's running game also sucks just enough that Michigan's excellent front can get away with it for a third straight week. They might well be, but Ohio State also tends to watch the game before The Game carefully and incorporate its lessons. The lesson of this one is you don't need to run the ball to attack Michigan's soft coverages, because screens, slants, and pass-leaning RPOs will also get the job done.

I like how you tallied up these scores over the course of the whole game. It really puts things in perspective. Pray tell, do you have any other measurements like this?

Yes I do. For every Michigan player who played, and some other aspects of the game.

Other aspects?

Tackling, coverage, pressure.

Refs?

No, but there's one that measures how much of the game was on the Terps doing something awesome or especially bad.

How could one organize such a wealth of measurements?

I think you know.

Chart.

Defensive Line
Player Snaps + - T Notes
Kris Jenkins 33 7 2 +5 You can't leave him singled.
Mason Graham 36 12 3 +9 High motor on stunts is death to teams in passing downs.
Kenneth Grant 35 7 2 +5 What a freak.
Cam Goode 21 6 2 +4 Earning his playing time with the others.
Rayshaun Benny 23 6 0 +6 Earning more playing time with the others.
Jaylen Harrell 38 5 1 +4 Hilarious moment they tried his edge.
Braiden McGregor 34 9.5 0 +9.5 Good 2nd option.
Derrick Moore 31 7 2.5 +4.5 Zone drops need work.
Josaiah Stewart 27 3.5 1 +2.5 Didn't get to do much.
TOTAL 278 63 13.5 +49.5 We have 9 starters.
Linebacker
Player Snaps + - T Notes
Junior Colson 60 10 6 +4 Covers ground, covers grass.
Michael Barrett 36 3 2 +1 Early stinger, lost some explosion after.
Ernest Hausmann 34 2.5 0 +2.5 Not Barrett as a blitzer but fine LB.
Jimmy Rolder 6 2 0 +2 The goal line stuff was good.
TOTAL 136 17.5 8 +9.5 Most years we'd kill for linebacking scores like this.
Secondary
Player Snaps + - T Notes
Rod Moore 40 2 7 -5 Rough day.
Makari Paige 48 0 4.5 -4.5 Missing more than one tackle is concerning.
Quinten Johnson 24 1 1 - Boring.
Keon Sabb 18 0.5 1 -0.5 Boring.
Mike Sainristil 59 11.5 5 +6.5 Split equally at CB and Nickel.
Will Johnson 59 2.5 5 -2.5 Not pre-Harrison shakeout we wanted.
Josh Wallace 40 2 6 -4 Welp.
Keshaun Harris 0 0 0 - DNP
Ja'Den McBurrows 12 6 0 +6 I AM STAYING TUNED MIKEY
TOTAL 300 25.5 29.5 -4 What is going on with my safeties?
Metrics
Player + - T Notes
Pressure 33 3 30/30 Intense pressure half the time.
Coverage 14 29 -15 Soft zones all day.
Tackling 3 9 -6 A concern.
RPS 10 16 -6 Is this all you can conjure Josh Gattis?
Hat Tip 9 15 -6 The Dao of Daulia Dagovailoa

Will Johnson got beat on a couple of fades. I am worried about Implications.

Ah man, you are wrecking the vibes. My dirty old fan brain went in wishcasting a push-off at the 50, but this ain't that. Johnson needs to get some contact when the receiver gets to him to put him closer to the sideline and take away room to fade. His contact comes late, and slows him down, and when the ball arrives he doesn't have a play on it.

They're running into the wind there but it's not like of these guys is substantially more aerodynamic than the other. Fortunately it's not caught, but we're not playing Maryland receivers on Saturday.

The second was caught, and again, without much excuse. This was late in the game when Michigan had started varying its alignments to turn off the easy yards, and Johnson is lined up in press. There is a tiny push around the 10 yard line that creates some separation.

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…but that is never called, especially when Marvin Harrison does it, and you expect a cornerback to make up that kind of gap while the receiver's in the process of catching it. Mostly I think this was completed because it's an excellent pass.

That receiver never breaks stride, and Tagovailoa arcs it perfectly over his receiver's shoulder. Hat tip.

If Johnson's performance was a major comedown from several weeks of All-America play, Wallace's was a "We finally get to see how a UMass transfer does against a good Big Ten receiver, and…oh." I didn't even clip the Randy Mossing—he was in find position and got dunked on; that's going to happen to anyone his size. But given events earlier this year, this incompletion was of great concern.

Again, we're not taking the quarterback's miss as relevant because Wallace never even got to turn around to see where it was going. This is biting on a double move, giving up leverage, and then not having the speed to be relevant on a remotely accurate ball. One hopes he was lured into biting on that outside move by Maryland's quick passing, but you are only as good as how much you can get away with. It says something that Michigan pulled Wallace shortly thereafter and spent the back end of the game with Sainristil at cornerback and McBurrows at nickel.

I liked McBurrows!

You liked that me made the Tackle of the game I bet.

One of the other two McBurrows events in this game, I'm happy to report, was actually in coverage. He knocked away a hook that Tagovailoa threw when Michigan covered the TE crosser they didn't cover the first time they saw that route combo. McBurrows also barely played this year before the MSU game, when Sainristil held up a reporter, handed her McBurrows, and said "Stay Tuned."

Personally I love this development. When we did the preview podcast and Brian asked each of us to name the cornerback starting against Ohio State opposite Johnson, I gave McBurrows. I didn't say he'd be the nickel and Sainristil the cornerback, though, so even I do end up correct it's a spiritually incorrect version of it.

And there's a downshot to that. We don't know about McBurrows in coverage that much, but Sainristil at cornerback thus far has been kind of an iffy proposition that takes away some of the best parts of his game.

You underrated Sainristil of the game.

I did. I did it the moment the camera went downfield and found a receiver behind Sainristil on a fly route, not comprehending that Sainristil had the right of it.

PFF doesn't split grading by alignment but they gave him a 71 for this game—when he was the Big Ten defensive player of the week—and a 54 and 65 for Purdue and Penn State, respectively. Those are the three games he's played since McBurrows entered the rotation, and those scores (his whole year in fact) are well off the 84 grade he got last year. All evidence suggests cornerback and nickel are very different positions in this defense, and I think we're seeing some evidence that learning the former on the fly is less than ideal.

But he did earn Big Ten player of the week, you underrater.

Those awards seldom look past two interceptions. What I found when I charted Sainristil's game was he was hunting for this one before it came to him. We're watching the slot receiver lined up on the bottom hash.

That guy is open on the throw, and as much as my heart wants to give Mike full credit for making the Friggin' Play of the Game right there, I can't get past the fact that Tagovailoa really screwed up by throwing it. I know this because Sainristil did the same thing two plays earlier and gave up a wide open seam. Same hash:

Just like he did on the interception, Sainristil is leaving the seam early to drive under the hitch. This was likely a response to the short stuff Maryland was hitting underneath them in the 2nd quarter, like the Johnson walk-in pick-six against Minnesota earlier this year. Rod Moore is playing it extremely softly, and shared in the responsibility for letting Maryland out of the shade on 2nd & 10. But the nickel needs to ride that seam a little longer, and pop him off his timing if he tries to go inside.

My guess—and this is just guessing now—is Tagovailoa noted the behavior the first time and figured Sainristil would stick to the seam the second time. If that was the game within the game that was going on here, it's advantage Sainristil.

What was up with Moore? Is he even a star anymore?

This was the first bad game from Rod Moore since the Rod Moore is Rusty portion of the season, which isn't that long ago. You have him playing unreasonably conservatively over that seam route above, but he also got caught playing the run side of this RPO way too aggressively.

Moore was also the guy I blamed for not lining up outside when Maryland had that cool RPO that nearly scored. He did get out there but then missed the tackle, which earned a "results-based" –2.

Moore benefited from the reverse on a play where he got his guy down near the line of scrimmage, but in the kind of way where the player gets up afterwards like "Oh man, I just had an Opportunity."

#9 the high safety in the middle.

The reason that's an Opportunity is Michigan's plan for the back side of mesh is to trust Moore to make that play. I don't know that he's still on track to be a second-rounder after this season, but Michigan still acts like he is, which is encouraging. #SpeedinSpace is also meant to be punishing on safeties, who wind up having to wrangle down that speed in all that space.

Makari Paige might agree. The week I made him a star in the FFFF graphics he gave up an RPO slant, took a shallow angle on a screen that got him blocked by a WR who thinks he's not allowed to (he was), and was one of four Michigan players who missed a tackle on the 3rd & 2 that converted on Maryland's penultimate drive.

This has been a rough year for grading safeties, because they don't get to do much. Normally they pick up some half points along the way for shooting down to be relevant in the run game, and Paige gets to do some nickel stuff when the opponent puts two tight ends on the field. Maryland, understandably since their OC used to coach here, seemed more interested in making life hard on the linebackers.

Colson did a bad thing I take.

I decided the major coverage bust was on him, but it could easily be on several other guys depending on the coverage.

I drew the route combinations and what I think was supposed to happen on the video itself, but it's easier to see if I draw it up in Powerpoint.

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First rule of decoding zones is if two defenders go bonk one of them is in the wrong one. Both LBs end up underneath the hook route, which says one of them probably isn't supposed to be there.

Rules versus trips can be funky, but the way Johnson aligns over the X receiver and plays him says he's in man coverage. The way Sainristil plays the slot receiver also suggests he's in man with that guy, which makes sense since you don't want to be in a situation where your linebackers are carrying a slot receiver down the seam. Colson has the Z receiver to begin, but he gets the benefit of safety help if that guy goes vertical. The right side of the defense is in a zone, with Wallace spot-dropping then staying over the RB when he releases, and Quinten Johnson picking up the Z's corner route.

Best guess then, the coverage is "Stubbie" also known as "Special" in the Gary Patterson tree, or "Lock" to Brent Venables. The giveaway is the behavior of Hausmann. He picks up the TE (Y) at first, but sees the H coming towards him and gestures at (I think) Colson, who ends up standing next to him.

The gesturing from Hausmann tells me he was in man on the TE until he crossed, and he and Colson were supposed to flip jobs. This wasn't the end of Colson Bad moments. He was the one caught covering grass on the early RB dumpoff that nobody was there to tackle on. He also tends to get stuck on the backside on read plays whether or not there's an RPO behind him.

The man's on his fourth linebacker coach (Macdonald, Helow, Partridge, Rick Minter) in three years, so it's unlikely Jesse's dad is going to get all of this stuff cleaned up this week. I do hope Colson returns next year, because the NFL loves nothing better than over-drafting guys like him for their size and athleticism, then dropping them on the curb because nobody in the league takes time to develop players.

But Colson did some good things too?

More good than bad, including a good ol' fashioned "You tried to edge Junior Colson!" moment.

Omigod they tried to edge Junior Colson?

They did.

How did it work out for them?

Remember the split flow play I mentioned earlier with Paige, how he ran into a receiver by going too high? Well that play got diddly squat because Colson ran down Dyches in the flat, with a little edge help from Sainristil.

I clipped so much from this game I didn't bother to clip the other +2, which was Colson activating against a lead blocker in a huge gap and not only popping that guy back but making the tackle. Colson had a bunch of +1 moments for shooting up to replace his linemen when needed, and a bunch of +0.5s as well. The total was a healthy +4. There are very good body parts we would have traded some years for a guy who grades out like this.

Barrett seemed a step slow after going out. Hausmann was quietly just fine in his place, and is probably going to be better than any of these guys before he graduates. If our opinion shifted on a linebacker from this game, it was Jimmy Rolder making his second appearance of the season where Maryland least wanted him.

#30 the LB on the black diamond

Saving that for the preview next year.

I noticed there were some defensive linemen in that clip.

I said on WTKA that this is Michigan's best defensive line ever.

That's hot.

Contenders:

  • 2021: Hutchinson, Ojabo, Smith, Hinton + Morris/Jenkins/Upshaw/Harrell
  • 2016: Glasgow, Godin, Charlton, Wormley + Hurst/Gary/Winovich/Mone/Kemp
  • 1947: Len Ford, Moose Wistert, Pritula, Sobeleski, Sickels
  • 1940: Frutig, Ox Wistert, Fritz, Sukup, Kelto + Rob Kolesar
  • 1985: Messner, Hammerstein, Harris, Akers, Scarcelli + Reinhold, Thibert
  • 2006: Woodley, Branch, Taylor, Biggs +Jamison/Johnson (NTWJ)/Van Alstyne
  • 1995: Horn, Carr, Zenkewicz, Steele + Feazell
  • 1997: Steele, Renes, Hall, Williams + older Feazell/Eric Wilson

The 1947 team is probably going to win most arguments on star power because Michigan was so stocked with players returning from war, players they had recruited during the war, and other teams' stars who transferred under the V12 program to keep playing during the war, that they had to invent platoon football just to get them all on the field. 

The 1940 line was better defensively but the 1941 "Seven Oaks Post" with Merv Pregulman and Julius Franks at guard was easily the best of all the two-way lines. Going back much further gets into the problem of defining a "defensive line" in a time that linemen were recruited mostly for their blocking abilities, a 5-3 was considered a dime package, and an end was both a wide receiver and the kind of guy you would used to cover them. If you want to include the Kipke and Yost eras, the 1932 "no-name" line was murder. Also Bennie Oosterbaan was an "end" in 1925 and played with more two All-Americans in Harry Hawkins and Tom Edwards. There's also an argument to be made that the 1879 line was the best in the history of the game in its time, if only because that was the first football game ever played under Walter Camp's rules that established the football concept of lines.

Anyway I mention this so you know I put a lot of thought into this. There are DLs in that list with better players at the top, but this one is at least the equal to, and deeper than 2016.

Is this what you meant by "30/30" in the pressure metric?

The pressure in this game was odd, but let me explain my numbers versus PFF's, which had 26 pressures on 30 dropbacks. My numbers don't mean exactly that. The numerator represents the total pressure positives, where +1 means you made the QB uncomfortable and hurried him or caused him to miss a read, +2 means you mostly blew up the play, forcing a throwaway or panicked rollaway, and +3 means he had no chance. I also give out negatives for beats after a certain amount of time that the QB gets to sit in the pocket. If there's a question, I defer to how many blockers were left in the protection. The denominator is the total number of rushers on pass rush opportunities divided by four. The result should give us a fair approximation of how often the protection is a liable to spring a +1 leak against a four-man rush.

As with everything else against a TaTa offense, the values that went into the numerator varied a great deal more than usual. There were five +3 (sack-worthy) events but also plenty of rushes where the ball was out quickly and nobody was breaking through when it did. In other words, the actual number of dropbacks that were pressured was as low as it's been since IU's screen-a-thon, but the intensity of the pressure was higher than normal.

Opponent Dropbacks Pressured Intensity PR+3 PR+2 PR+1 0 PR-1 PR-2
ECU 25 56% 0.80 1 6 7 9 2  
UNLV 26 58% 0.96 3 6 6 9 2  
Bowling Green 25 56% 0.88 1 7 6 10 1  
Rutgers 22 50% 0.59   4 7 9 2  
Nebraska 23 57% 0.96 4 3 6 8 2  
Minnesota 18 78% 1.39 3 5 6 4    
Indiana 24 42% 0.75 2 5 3 13 1  
Michigan State 25 56% 0.72 1 4 9 10   1
Purdue 27 74% 1.30 4 9 7 6   1
Penn State 29 62% 0.86 1 9 8 8 2 1
Maryland 29 52% 0.93 5 5 5 11 3  

I had forgotten about that Minnesota OL. Most of the time a pass with no pressure event mean the ball was out of there immediately. Maryland managed to have Tagovailoa stand in the pocket past his first couple of reads a whopping three times, matching Penn State for the most of any Michigan opponent this year.

Nobody on this team is a Hutchinson.

Yet. The true sophomore class is probably going to go down as the greatest Michigan ever recruited. But even today I'd argue we have an All-American and 2024 Heisman candidate in our midst. Literally. Michigan had no fear of punting from midfield up five in the fourth quarter because when you let Mason Graham at a pass protection he's going to grab everybody's attention.

#55 the middle DT in the three-man bunch at the bottom

Even when he's not collecting the sacks, he's part of the reason for them. Kenneth Grant's sack starts because Graham is ripping the center down to the ground. The LG sees this and instead of the 340-pound man coming inside of him he decides to take the one who killed his friend.

#55 the 2nd DL from the top

There are many more clips that I picked up for other guys where Graham's doing something worthy in the background. So many good outcomes for this defense begin with him. Also the club came off.

His classmate Kenneth Grant is in the star category now too. The draft guys are going to go ga-ga over him, not just because he runs down top-25 running backs in the open field, but because of what happens when you leave your double.

#78 bottom DT

If we go back to the scoop and score, which featured an unblocked Derrick Moore and a looping Michael Barrett, we find Moore was left alone in part because two linemen decided they needed to be focused on Grant.

Like Graham and Jenkins, Grant is a key part of Michigan's designs on playing Stretch with a light box by having their DTs get across the formation and force cutbacks. You can have the backside blocker release, but someone will just fill in behind. Or you can release the playside blocker and Grant will just run out in front and collect the TFL himself.

#78 nose

You'll note Jenkins is already involved in several of the clips above; he's usually the main guy being attacked on those Stretch plays, and his ability to two-gap is the reason Michigan can get away with leaving their safeties out of it.

#94 bottom DT

Behind them, we saw more progress from their backups. Benny had another great outing without any of the slip-ups that was characterizing his play earlier in the season. I loved this play both for his get-off, and how he fought through the double-team to pop up in the running lane just in time.

#26 bottom DT

He too showed an ability to two-gap on light box run plays. When Jenkins moves on the position isn't taking much of a step back.

I am also enjoying Cam Goode while he's here. Here he did the same thing as Benny when they tried to double through him on a Power run.

DT #99 on top

I want to note that this is extra hard to do because of how Michigan wants to play stretch. When the linemen to Goode's right (and Benny's left in the play above this one) block down, it looks for a moment like Stretch the other way, which means the DT should start moving with the OL. When it turns out that's a blockdown, all of that movement becomes space in the gap the offense is attacking. Both Benny and Goode showed they can ID the play's direction quickly and close that gap or, if a double has already moved down, set up in it.

Goode was also a leading source of TaTa Time.

If you were watching this game without a stake in it, you were rooting for more Goode/Tagovailoa action. Graham's chases don't last long because he is willing to expend every calorie Abigail O'Connor can put in him just to know what it feels like to land on a quarterback again. Grant moves as well as any quarterback; if you've got him on your tail it's soon over. But Goode was consistently startling TaTa out of the backfield and then chasing the Terrapin at a turtle's pace.

I have decided that Cam Goode's spirit animal is a Komodo dragon. Nonchalantly wriggles into your den, bites at you, then just sorta follows you around until you succumb.

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Look, I'm out of bounds, happy now?

Another very popular wrong answer for humans playing the "I could take that animal in a fight" game is Braiden McGregor. Once again I managed to get to the end of a game where McGregor had the most positive score of anyone on the team, zero negatives, and zero clips because he's either creating pressure that the QB passes out of, squeezing the edge of a run play that someone else makes, or falling down in pursuit.

Jaylen Harrell and Derrick Moore understand, since against a line like Maryland's the DTs are usually causing so much disruption they don't get to pay off their moves. Let's watch the KENNETH GRANT EATS A PERSON clip again but watch the DE on the top.

Let someone else eat, Ken!

But you probably noticed Derrick Moore doing something far beyond his years again.

Yes I did. This is a bespoke stunt.

DE #8 at the top

The first second doesn't look like anything other than an edge burying himself inside a tackle's shoulder on a power rush. As he goes by however, Moore gives the RG a little shoulder. It's not a lot, but it's enough to block him from getting any kind of purchase on Goode as he goes by. Instead of facing Goode, the guard gets turned around and falls down, freeing the looper and forcing a throwaway.

Maryland fan here. Don't you think it's a Big Ten conspiracy to get Michigan undefeated to The Game that they called intentional grounding there?

I'm an intentional grounding extremist. The rules are vague: "where there is no eligible receiver." In practice, this standard is usually within a few yards of an eligible receiver. The last grounding called on JJ was about five yards away from a running back.

I'd say Tagovailoa pushed it too far too many times. Here's where this one touched the ground.

image

He's pointing at the receiver on the sideline, who's 10 yards downfield and let's say 5 yards horizontal, for a Pythagorean distance of about 11 yards away from having an uncatchable football hit his feet. Nobody's touching TaTa as he releases it. Really his only argument is "C'mon guys" because the result of a penalty is a safety and likely the game.

They might have done so too if TaTa hadn't already pushed the boundary as far as it could go earlier in the game. This is at least from outside of the pocket so it just needs to get to the blue line. It does not get anywhere close to the blue line.

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If there's a conspiracy against Maryland it was with the lie-hatin' ball, as Michigan blocked the ensuing punt for a safety. Ball also rolled out of bounds after the pop-up kickoff that the refs thought went off the tee.

Redshirt updates? I got a clarification on the postseason rule, which was in effect last year but might not be granted again. Championship games are not part of it, and it was a one-time blanket waiver, but one imagines there will be more opt-outs of bowl games this year, and they'll have to implement it again. Last year it counted for any bowl game, so if you played in the semifinal and the championship those wouldn't count against your redshirt.

The only redshirting player who went in this one was Jimmy Rolder, who is up to 2 games now.

Heroes?

Mason Graham, Braiden McGregor, Mike Sainristil, Ja'den McBurrows.

Maybe Not So Heroic?

The rest of the starting secondary had a rough outing: Josh Wallace especially, but also Rod Moore, Makari Paige, and Will Johnson.

What does it mean for THE GAME?

The defensive line is the strength of the team. Word that Ohio State's OL has taken a step back this year. Maryland's outfit was supposed to be a pretty good pass pro group and not good at running, and that bore out. Michigan should have the advantage up front, with the ability to rotate through nine "starters" and make it to the 4th quarter with gas in the tank.

The tackles might even be able to play a man short. Michigan's best chance at keeping Ohio State's offense under 30 points again is if they can once again shut down OSU's Stretch & Counter run game without expending safety help. That probably doesn't mean leaving two guys high every play—they're going to give McCord confusing looks and try to pressure him into the mistakes he was making earlier this season.

The linebackers are going to be iffy in coverage. Colson blew a Stubbie about as badly as I've ever seen from him. He gets caught covering grass sometimes. Barrett is their most effective blitzer, however, so we're going to live with it. If you're a gambling man, see what you can for Cade Stover leading the Buckeyes in receiving yards.

I am scared, very scared, of Ohio State's receivers versus the second cornerback. The season preview got all the way to 2nd cornerback without finding a flaw, but promised so many bullets one was bound to hit. Eleven games later, Amorion Walker didn't happen, Jyaire Hill didn't happen, Josh Wallace turned out to be the just-okay UMass transfer he was expected to be, walk-on Keshaun Harris got injured, and Ja'den McBurrows is a nickelback only. The only positive surprise along the way is DJ Waller looks like a find, though hardly one they can play right now. That means we're rolling with Wallace, and if that doesn't work Sainristil moves out and McBurrows takes the slot. This isn't a terrible floor, but it's terribly close to the floor of expectations.

Probably can't lock Johnson on Harrison and call it a day. This was an upgrade in competition from the types he's been dominating, and WJ got beat over the top twice. OSU is certainly going to test that, but I remind you they tested it last year and gave up after one attempt. Harrison is more or less the same player he was; Johnson was only just then rounding into a star. But yeah, we're not shutting them out.

This was a bad time for the safeties to look shaky. Moore couldn't get calibrated and Paige's things were minor and fixed as the game went along. Both can play much better.

This was also a bad time for a bunch of missed tackles. The way Michigan loses this game is if a safety whiffs on TreVeyon Henderson or one of their other excellent athletes. That might be a good thing; tackling issues tend to correlate with focus drifting, and Michigan just played its least focused game of the season. Who knows how everything is affecting them inside the program, but you'd think they'll be of the opposite mind on Saturday.

I interact with Ohio State fans online. Can you please tell me we will beat them so they will stop telling me Aidan Hutchinson and David Ojabo and Mazi Smith and Hassan Haskins and JJ McCarthy and Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards and Ronnie Bell and Trevor Keegan and Olu Oluwatimi and Zak Zinter were all a mirage, and everything Michigan's accomplished since 2021 was due to a low-level assistant getting his signs-decoding footage from a slightly different angle than Ohio State gets its signs-decoding footage? Bet.

Your Moment of Zen:

Comments

GoBlue96

November 22nd, 2023 at 9:34 AM ^

I've definitely noticed over the last couple of years that generally it seems like if the defense doesn't go three and out, the opponent is going to drive down the field with multiple first downs.  I'm not sure why that is.

canzior

November 22nd, 2023 at 11:15 AM ^

I think that's most bend but don't break defenses. You give up long drives, because it's hard to sustain, especially on a younger qb for 10-12 plays. McCord ain't Taulia...he may have 1 or 2 drives he can go up and down the field between the 20s but a guy who has missed throws, wide open receivers and been fooled easily by zones, asking him to do this all game is a way OSU loses. 

My biggest concern is a missed tackle on Henderson turning into a long run. 

NeverPunt

November 22nd, 2023 at 12:36 PM ^

This may have something to do with the fact that we are largely spending the whole season practicing for one game regardless of the opponent. It's the opposite of the Don Brown approach which was annihilating most teams and getting worked by the best ones.  

My understanding of our approach is to keep things in front of us, don't get beat by the big explosive play, and make OSU (or whomever we're pretending is OSU) beat us when the going gets tough in 3rd and whatever. The more the field shrinks, the harder it gets. OSU murderates people by bombing them into oblivion with quick scores. Watch how many times people didn't put a safety over MHJR and he beats one guy and scores from 40 or 60 yards out. It's a lot. Some teams are MORE dangerous the more field they have to work with because you have to cover sideline to sideline and 80+ yards downfield. OSU is that. 

I believe the plan this year will again be to keep everything in front of us and let our d-line wreck them when they've run out of field. holding OSU to a field goal is a win EVERY SINGLE TIME. A punt is a double win. Our offense has to do it's job but if you can keep OSU to 20-25 points or less you can beat them. Like last year. And the one before that.

In this game we had some issues but we also were largely beat by a VERY experienced QB who either hits NFL windows or implodes. Kyle McCord isn't that. 

DEATH IS COMING FOR YOU RYAN DAY

BlueInGreenville

November 23rd, 2023 at 8:56 AM ^

This Ohio team is different than the last couple of years.  McCord is a check down artist at heart and there’s no way he wants to get hit more than a couple of times.  I’m not saying we go back to the Don Brown days but we’ll need to take some chances to get McCord out of rhythm.  At any rate, Minter is awesome so I’ll sleep Good Friday night.

Blue57

November 22nd, 2023 at 9:57 AM ^

Personally, I’m happy to have given up the TD within the 5 and points in the 3rd quarter. Sometimes giving up stats like that in a game give momentum to the other team. Maryland succeeded (and ultimately failed) where Ohio State wasn’t given the opportunity. Small unseen victories. 

TESOE

November 22nd, 2023 at 11:21 AM ^

No Boa Constritor memes. This gets that monkey gone. It is always a thing when you haven't given up a score... or in this case 3rd qtr mumbo jumbo. 

I would expect some humble focus...and that makes me happy as well +1.

Is Harbaugh a difference here? IDK. OSU is going to be the best game of our lives. So great to be a Michigan Wolverine.

Beat Ohio!

swalburn

November 22nd, 2023 at 9:57 AM ^

I'm going to spin this game as a positive.  We got to make some mistakes, we survived and now we have tape to help us correct everything that happened before the big game.  Maryland was really the first offensively competent team that we have seen this year.  We now have the opportunity to see what worked against us and adjust.

Drenasu

November 22nd, 2023 at 10:05 AM ^

For all the clowns saying it was sign stealing, in two games against us, Stroud threw for almost 750 yards, 4 TD and 2 INT.  Both INTs were in 2022 which was AFTER OSU changed their signs.

bronxblue

November 22nd, 2023 at 10:52 AM ^

I agree with the general sentiment that MD is a solid team and UM did a good job slowing them down but made mistakes, but Maryland isn't really a top-25 offense.  They're #56 per SP+, 40th in whatever ESPN calls FPI, and 29th per FEI.  I think the SP+ number is so low because of their TOs and bad running game but MD also doesn't seem to have the top-level talent offensively they'd had in the past and, because of Gattis, seem to be running the best 2018 offense you've seen but not much else.

I'm less worried about the secondary than Seth seems to be.  Johnson got beat a couple of times but (a) Taulia is a better QB than McCord, and (b) corners get beat sometimes regardless of how well they play.  Last year against Illinois UM suddenly couldn't tackle anybody and gave up a then season-high yards on the ground to Illinois and yet those didn't linger.  I suspect Harrison will get some yards but we've seen this secondary play pretty well and my guess is Minter and co. have some designs for stopping OSU in the air they didn't deploy against Maryland.

Denarded

November 22nd, 2023 at 12:06 PM ^

I agree with this sentiment. When the defense is locked in (as they will be Saturday) their opponents do not gain much success, especially spotlighting the two teams the program vows to "take seriously" for their rivalry/big games. 

MSU: I know they are a tirefire, but it was their Super Bowl at home, they gained 182 yards, never reached inside the 20 after having Houser walk over to the sideline to hide their #Signz 

PSU: That game is much closer to 31-6 than 24-15. PSU's first TD drive came on two 4th down conversions, one took a great play by Kaden Saunders, the other a RB throw back to Allar leading to a QB draw TD. The final TD comes in mop-up time due to 30 yards of penalties where Michigan is an inch away from sealing the game with a Quinten Johnson INT. Again on the road in a hostile environment. 

Now they have what will be the loudest Big House crowd maybe ever? behind them. They have held prior OSU offenses with a top NFL QB, 3 first round WR's and 4 NFL OL below 30 points back-to-back years. I think if the offense can get to 21-24 points, its over. 

alum96

November 22nd, 2023 at 11:07 AM ^

Wasn't too long ago we were in panic over the defensive tackle recruiting.  

We can now make a claim 2 of our top 5 players are DTs and potentially 4 of the top 8. 

Is this Mike Elston or what the hell is going on? These aren't consensus 5*s, legitimately curious how this is happening but loving it.

As for DL in totality it's a shame we don't have an Uche, Winovich, or Ojabo type to pair with these crazy tackles (I am ignoring Hutch who is Michigan "generational").  Those guys were doing great things with Ben Mason types in the DT rotation.  Can't imagine what they would be doing with these type of freaks galore in our interior.  No offense to our current crew but they aren't quite getting home as those guys in the past did even with monsters helping them at DT.

Blue In NC

November 22nd, 2023 at 3:05 PM ^

Fair in terms of sheer pass rush but IMO our ends as less flashy but still very good.  Moore is about the equal of Winovich (Wino better pass rusher but overall I think Moore is on his level, maybe better).  McG isn't the pass rush specialist but he's been very good against the run and gets some pressures.  Plus that's a high standard to maintain of NFL level guys.

ChiCityWolverine

November 22nd, 2023 at 11:08 AM ^

I know it's sour grapes and if we analyzed every Michigan offensive snap this way we'd probably find some similar errors and/or things the officials let go... However, I can't get over how crazy things are getting with offensive tackle alignment in football. 

On the big 3rd and 11, Maryland's inside/slot receivers closest to the tackle box were on the LOS. Both outside receivers are about a yard off (maybe even a bit closer at the bottom of the screen). Then you have the LT who's pretty much two yards behind the line! This isn't uncommon these days, but it's crazy to me that a WR can be inside a yard of the line and be considered in the backfield but the OT is (generously) a yard and a half behind but really closer to two yards behind and is considered on the LOS. 

Make it make sense! 

TESOE

November 22nd, 2023 at 11:32 AM ^

Hmm...I will start looking on this. What gives? Allowing tackles a back foot two yards off scrimmage is crazy. That is an easy dump off to. Maryland was scheming but this is a bigger trend you are pointing out. Looks wrong...that is the sort of thing a line judge could sort out pre game but it seems the game is moving to backfield linemen.

Michigan4Life

November 22nd, 2023 at 11:44 AM ^

It's not how far the OT are lined up from the LOS. According to the NCAA rule book, it's: offensive player “is legally on his scrimmage line when he faces his opponent’s goal line with the line of his shoulders approximately parallel thereto and either he is the snapper or his head breaks the plane of the line drawn through the waistline of the snapper.”

It's up to the line judge discretion to ensure that the OT is lined up correctly. They can be lined up 2 yards off the LOS as long as his head breaks the plane of the center's waistline. 

dragonchild

November 22nd, 2023 at 11:36 AM ^

We know Wallace is athletically limited.  However, to hype up this transfer-in they kept hammering his extensive experience.  Story being, UMass is a popular target for "but it's still an FBS program" cupcake OOC games, and as their #1 corner, he's gone up against NFL receivers.  It's not so much that he won those matchups as to say he's a battle-hardened veteran.

OK, if that's the case. . . why is he biting on double moves??  This isn't the first time.  He doesn't play like someone with gazillions of snaps under his belt.

mi93

November 22nd, 2023 at 11:40 AM ^

That might be a good thing; tackling issues tend to correlate with focus drifting, and Michigan just played its least focused game of the season.

This.  I expect Saturday to be a much more focused team.

I also expect the crosser to be MHJ on Saturday, and I'm counting on drop coverage or a switch to drop MHJ in the middle of the field.  Georgia already proved if you hit him hard and often enough, he's breakable (figuratively) too.

mtzlblk

November 22nd, 2023 at 11:49 AM ^

Maryland fan here. Don't you think it's a Big Ten conspiracy to get Michigan undefeated to The Game that they called intentional grounding there

That Maryland fan that has been in a coma the last several weeks? Who just woke up for the game and missed the B0G doing everything within its powers (and then some) to contort their own rules toward sabotaging Michigan's entire season. That B0G conference? 

Has there ever been an argument so laughably easy to win by simply telling someone to go to (gestures at everywhere sports is discussed and written about) then asking them to come back in a few hours and try to say that again without cracking up.

MichiganiaMan

November 22nd, 2023 at 12:02 PM ^

Can we get an expanded FFFF graphic for the game breakdown this week? One that includes our top reserves on defense? I just want to revel in how many of our d-linemen have earned their Dangerman star.

markusr2007

November 22nd, 2023 at 2:15 PM ^

Fact of the matter is, the Big Ten has comparatively terrible passing offenses.

The best one in the Big Ten is Ohio State, ranked #23 at 284 yards per game

The next best is Maryland #26.

 

The best pass defense in the nation is Ohio State #1, 144 YPG

it just so happens the second best is Michigan #2, 145 YPG

 

I think both QBs - McCord and McCarthy - are going to struggle in this one to set feet and throw.

Marvin Harrison is awesome, but his magic requires McCord not be harrassed.

I do think McCarthy is a better thrower on the run than McCord is.

 

Turnovers, tackling, special teams, coverage gaffs/mismatches on defense will decide the outcome of a tight game.

Michigan 23

Ohio State 19

 

 

 

AlbanyBlue

November 22nd, 2023 at 7:57 PM ^

My takeaways:

Focus will be much better on Saturday, limiting these uncharacteristic secondary issues.

Our DL, if they play how they can play, can limit much of what OSU can do.

Regardless, OSU will put up points, and we will need to keep up. JJ and Blake, Zak and Trevor, this is game one of "what you came back for". It's your time now.

Offensive braintrust, aggressive from the jump. It is an absolute certainty that Michigan can take OSU's heart with a great start. Succeed early and they will fold.