game previews

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ESSENTIALS

Overview

Well, folks, here it is: Michigan is playing for the national championship. They've drawn a familiar foe in multiple ways: Washington played Michigan two years ago and several starters on both teams played in that game. One of the guys who didn't, starting QB Michael Penix, was playing for Indiana. The 2021 game was an explosion of offensive incompetence on Washington's part. Michigan, then very early in Cade McNamara's starting career, got out to a comfortable lead and then executed the Penn State forward-pass-has-been-banned gameplan to see the game out.

To describe Washington's transformation since is to reach for superlatives. They fired Jimmy Lake, hired Kalen Deboer, imported Penix, surrounded him with excellent pass blockers and freaky wide receivers, and went straight to the moon… on one side of the ball. Washington enters this game 12th in SP+, sporting the #4 offense in the country and the #44 defense. By Bill Connelly's reckoning, the last time a team with a defense ranked outside of the top 30 in SP+ won a national title was Oklahoma. In 1950. The worst title-winning defense since was Auburn in 2010, when Cam Newton overcame SP+'s #27 D.

You can see why when you look at Washington's season, which has been a non-stop rollercoaster of close games since late September. After beating Cal 59-32, Washington has not won a game by more than ten points. They finished the Pac-12 schedule with wins of 2, 3, and 3 over Oregon State, Washington State, and Oregon; they were trailing Arizona State 7-6 midway through the fourth quarter before an 89-yard pick-six pulled their butts out of the fire. They survived a couple of late shots at the endzone to beat Texas last Monday. Washington is a bonafide Team Of Destiny.

Michigan isn't. It's merely very good at football. Let's get it on.

[AFTER THE JUMP: the best passing offense in America]

Essentials

Overview

This has to be the largest gap between the Vegas line and the SP+ line I have entered into the above table since I started putting both in the game column. These days it is rare to have a gap of more than a couple points. More than a touchdown is unheard of without a plague of locusts hitting one team.

What's the deal? Well, Alabama beat Georgia. The end. That win has turned the Crimson Tide from a talented but wobbly team into a juggernaut in the eyes of the public, which has bet massively on Alabama. The books have barely moved the line; it opened at Michigan –2.5. They're taking a position on Michigan.

And, you know, it's not too hard to see why. The week before Bama won the SEC championship game they required one of the all-time escapes, converting a fourth and 31 to beat a bad Auburn team. In addition to their season-opening loss to Texas and the Auburn escape, Bama also put up one-score wins over bad Texas A&M and Arkansas teams. They're 7th in SP+. Michigan is first by some distance.

Let's act like it.

[AFTER THE JUMP: Alabama, but not quite ALABAMA]

Essentials

Overview

Well, it's Iowa again. Except this time they're the Most Iowa. They are not content with being regular Iowa, a very good defensive team with a plodding offense. No. They're going to get their starting quarterback injured. And then they're going to get their top two tight ends injured. They're going to have the #1 defense in America, per SP+, and the #124 offense. And they're going to win ten games by exactly three points each when they get a punt return touchdown with four seconds left on the clock.

This game will either be a slow-motion blowout, a la Penn State, or a deeply annoying meatgrinder that terrifies you to within an inch of your life. Probably the former.

[AFTER THE JUMP: "no"]