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ESSENTIALS

WHAT	#1 Michigan (14-0) vs #2 Washington (14-0)
WHERE	Autograph: Rewarding Fans Stadium Houston, TX
WHEN	Monday 6:45 Central 7:45 Eastern
THE LINE	M –4.5 (Vegas) M –12.5 (Bill C)
TELEVISION	ESPN PBP: Chris Fowler Color: Kirk Herbstreit
TICKETS	from $1100
WEATHER	no

Overview

Well, folks, here it is: Michigan is playing for the national championship. They've drawn a familiar foe in multiple ways: Washington played Michigan two years ago and several starters on both teams played in that game. One of the guys who didn't, starting QB Michael Penix, was playing for Indiana. The 2021 game was an explosion of offensive incompetence on Washington's part. Michigan, then very early in Cade McNamara's starting career, got out to a comfortable lead and then executed the Penn State forward-pass-has-been-banned gameplan to see the game out.

To describe Washington's transformation since is to reach for superlatives. They fired Jimmy Lake, hired Kalen Deboer, imported Penix, surrounded him with excellent pass blockers and freaky wide receivers, and went straight to the moon… on one side of the ball. Washington enters this game 12th in SP+, sporting the #4 offense in the country and the #44 defense. By Bill Connelly's reckoning, the last time a team with a defense ranked outside of the top 30 in SP+ won a national title was Oklahoma. In 1950. The worst title-winning defense since was Auburn in 2010, when Cam Newton overcame SP+'s #27 D.

You can see why when you look at Washington's season, which has been a non-stop rollercoaster of close games since late September. After beating Cal 59-32, Washington has not won a game by more than ten points. They finished the Pac-12 schedule with wins of 2, 3, and 3 over Oregon State, Washington State, and Oregon; they were trailing Arizona State 7-6 midway through the fourth quarter before an 89-yard pick-six pulled their butts out of the fire. They survived a couple of late shots at the endzone to beat Texas last Monday. Washington is a bonafide Team Of Destiny.

Michigan isn't. It's merely very good at football. Let's get it on.

[AFTER THE JUMP: the best passing offense in America]

Run Offense vs Washington

[Barron]

This looks like a mismatch. If you don't adjust for strength of schedule, Washington is one of the worst rush defenses in the country. They're 119th in EPA/play allowed and 126th in success rate allowed. They're 132nd in line yards allowed. They finished 9th in the Pac-12 in raw YPC allowed at 4.4. The teams that were worse? Stanford, Colorado, and USC, corpses all. Texas just racked up 7.3 YPC and a whopping 69% success rate… in a game where they ran 37% of the time. Jim Harbaugh will not repeat that error.

PFF's grades largely mirror the stats. As a team they rank 72nd in rush D grading. Just one player with at least 100 snaps grades out as legitimately good against the run. That's DT Tuli Letuligasenoa, a rotational DT in his sixth year with the Huskies. His usage is fairly baffling. Like Michigan, Washington has rotated through five DTs over the course of the year. Unlike Michigan, Washington has one(1) good DT, the aforementioned Letuligasenoa. Faatui Tuitele, Ulumoo Ale, and Jacob Bandes grade out between 61 and 55, and it's Tuitele and Ale—the guys in the 50s—who have gotten the most snaps over the course of the season. (True sophomore Jayvon Parker, the #65 kid in Michigan for the 2022 class, also has a couple hundred snaps and is currently grading out as easily the second-best UW DT, but his snaps were heavily concentrated in the early part of the year. He's got just 18 snaps in the last four games.) None of these guys is a factor as a rusher, so I have to assume that Letuligasenoa is on a pitch count for conditioning reasons.

FWIW, Letuligasenoa, Tuitele, and Bandes all got 20-30 snaps in the 2021 Michigan-Washington game, grading out at 48, 56, and 58 respectively. Trevor Keegan will see some familiar faces.

There are some mitigating factors. Washington did not play Iowa. They played Oregon, twice, and USC, and Oregon State—all top 25 teams in EPA/rush. They can reasonably claim that their schedule obscures their level of play. But even in-conference they're only better than the dead weight.

The question is not about the Washington rush defense, which looks set to hang on for dear life, but what Michigan's rush offense can do to them. This is not the 2021-22 vintage rushing attack. College Football Data has a PPA stat that is more or less expected points added; Washington finished #130 in that department. The Big Ten teams closest to Washington on Michigan's schedule and how Michigan performed against them:

• #100 Minnesota: 33 carries, 191 yards, 5.8 YPC.
• #72 Indiana: 42 carries, 163 yards, 3.9 YPC
• #71 Michigan State: 34 carries, 120 yards, 3.5 YPC
• #67 Maryland: 45 carries, 150 yards, 3.3 YPC
• #64 Rutgers: 40 carries, 201 yards, 5.0 YPC

Only a couple of those are game-winning performances if transplanted into the Washington game… but then again even the worst defense on the list above is 30 spots better than Washington and most are 60 spots better.

Michigan is just 67th in PPA per rush, and here we have to talk about the Big Ten. I am sorry, but we have to. The vortex of suck that is the West division has seemingly distorted SP+ defense rankings for the last couple years, and it looks like that is once again the case. This year things got worse because frequently decent offenses at PSU, Indiana, and MSU went off a cliff. The Big Ten West infected the other half of the conference.

The results are goofy. Is it plausible that the Big Ten has six of the top seven defenses in America? Michigan, OSU, Iowa, and PSU are 1 through 4. Maybe I can see that. Nebraska is 6. Wisconsin is 7. I am now beginning to suspect things are amiss. Maryland is 13. Northwestern is 18. Rutgers is 19. The wheels are coming off. Minnesota is 31, and it's official: the Big Ten West broke SP+. The capper: Michigan State's defense is right behind Washington's.

So one way to look at Michigan's rush stats this year is to say wow, their last three games they played the #2, 3, 4, 8, and 13 defenses in America. They're going to kill #44. Another way is to massively discount Big Ten numbers and prepare for a disappointing output.

I believe the answer is closer to the former than the latter after going over the Texas game, in which I saw tons of Washington DL being taken for the proverbial "ride" by Texas OL. It was only rarely that Washington was able to hold Texas under five yards, and while I think Texas's ground game is better than Michigan's this year the PFF grades of the DTs stood out as extremely accurate. Compounding issues for Washington is that when Texas went heavy they went with a 5-2, adding another mediocre DT to the equation. Washington is going to have to overcommit to stop duo, let alone the various other things Michigan will throw at Washington.

Also, Washington misses a ton of tackles. They are 104th in PFF's tackling grading. They've missed 87 this year, and all three of their main LBs have missed tackle rates of 13-19%. Michigan is not a team you want to face when you can't tackle.

KEY MATCHUP: BLAKE CORUM vs VINTAGE BLAKE CORUM. This looks like an opportunity for Corum to get into the open field against guys who airball a lot. 2022 Corum is going for 200 in this game. We've seen vintage Corum flashes of late. Can he get all the way back?

Pass Offense vs Washington

[Barron]

The weakness on defense is largely against the run. Washington's pass defense was stingy relative to the competition level they faced. Washington gave up 6.6 YPA on the season, which was third in the Pac-12. They also lead the conference with 16 interceptions.

The situation in the back seven is the opposite of what Michigan faced against Alabama. Washington has a number of excellent cover guys on the interior of the defense. Nickelback Kamren Fabiculanan and linebackers Edefuan Ulofoshio and Carson Bruener have excellent grades on throws with miniscule depth of target; they defend a large number of passes relative to how short the throws are and very rarely leak yardage after the catch.

The relative weak spot is the actual secondary. Oklahoma State transfer Jabbar Muhammad outperformed expectations and was second-team All Pac 12, but he's 5'9" and is only a fringe draft prospect as a result. Elijah Jackson emerged into a starter as a senior and has been just a guy for the duration of the year. He has 3 PBUs on 64 targets and no INTs. The safeties don't really pop, either. There aren't any glaring holes but neither are there any slam-dunk NFL guys. This a relief after playing an Alabama secondary loaded with stars.

Washington gets most of their organic pressure from edge Bralen Trice, who is sneaking into the late first round on occasional mock drafts and seems like a lock to be off the board by the end of day two. The good news from Michigan's perspective is that Trice is mostly a power rusher…

While Trice has good athleticism for his size, he's just OK generally speaking. That limits his pass-rush arsenal, as he's not quick-twitched and he lacks the change of direction and athletic ability to pull off finesse moves. His bend is also subpar compared to his peers, hindering his ability to get sacks around the edge.

…and Michigan has some beefy boys on the outside who have been in college forever. It is worth noting that LaDarius Henderson has been struggling to protect over the past month of the season. He does not have a pass protection grade better than 54 in the last five games and PFF has charged him with 22 pressures in that time period. If Washington can point Trice at Henderson and get rush from that, Michigan will have to help him, limiting their options elsewhere.

Nobody else who rushes much brings a lot of threat. The DTs are universally non-entities and the three other DEs Washington rotates through are just guys. Zion Tupuola-Fetui is the most-utilized. He has a third of Trice's pressures on the season and hasn't had more than two pressures in the last five games. Washington doesn't blitz much—the top four linebackers average 11 pass rush snaps a game between them—and doesn't get a ton out of those blitzes, so the game for Michigan's pass pro comes down to dealing with Trice, full stop. Related: Washington was dead last in the Pac-12 with 21 sacks this season.

This adds up to a unit that JJ McCarthy should do relatively well against. Even if Trice does get pressure, if it's just Trice there's a fair chance McCarthy is able to escape the pocket and get into scramble drills. When he's clean this doesn't look like a defense that's going to be able to man up Roman Wilson and Colston Loveland. Play action digs should be back on the menu after Alabama gameplanned to take them away; I don't see how Washington's going to be able to play the run straight up enough to prevent LBs from getting to the LOS on PA.

This doesn't mean McCarthy is going to go Purdue on 'em. A couple of commentators have brought that game up as a comparison point because of where Washington's defense ranks in various statistics, but one team plays in the Pac-12 and the other plays in the Big Ten West. Washington's guys are at at least decent and most are good, and they don't play a style of defense that ruthlessly exposes a lack of talent whilst in possession of no talent. This section asserts that Michigan is closer to USC, Oregon, and Utah—all teams that pressed Washington's iffy run defense and had success in the air—than the lesser lights Washington did well against. It does not assert that McCarthy is going to throw for 350 yards.

I would expect something efficient and under the radar, around 8 yards an attempt.

KEY MATCHUP: TRICE vs HENDERSON. Trice isn't the sort of guy who's going to teleport past a tackle a la Chop Robinson, but Henderson's been struggling the past few weeks against all sorts of rushers. OSU and Purdue have Trice-adjacent guys who gave him the business.

Run Defense vs Washington

[Washington University Athletic / Marc-Gregor Campredon]

This is a major question mark after Washington RB Dillon Johnson went down at the tail end of the semifinal. Washington says he is going to play and the issue at the end of the Texas game was Johnson aggravating an injury he's had for "a couple months." It seems slightly unrealistic that Johnson is going to be full go after being carted off the field just seven days earlier. (Maybe Washington is worried that the committee will replace them with Georgia if they reveal the extent of Johnson's injury.) Two scenarios: Johnson is more or less fine because he's hopped up on goofballs pre-game, or it's Blake Corum against OSU last year where he makes a valiant attempt but cannot actually go. Your guess is as good as mine.

Johnson is extremely important for Washington because they have zero tailback depth. Tybo Rogers and Will Nixon have 43 and 31 carries, respectively, and virtually all of them came in garbage time early in the season. Since we can't reasonably preview what the Rogers/Nixon backfield will do, we will preview Johnson like he's going to be healthy.

The Washington ground game has been remarkably consistent since conference play began with two exceptions. The exceptions: Washington ran for 13 yards on 13 carries against Arizona State(?!?!) and obliterated USC, rushing for 316 yards at 7.2 yards a pop. When not doing this, Washington has run for about 4 yards a carry on about 30 carries since late September. PFF attributes this production almost entirely to Johnson. Brailsford is the only OL grading out decently as a run blocker; everyone else is in the 50s. Johnson's 89 grade pops out. (This is in part because of how PFF grades. Johnson's only 33rd nationally amongst RBs. The #33 OL has a 78, and there are 5x the number of OL.)

There is a strong possibility that Washington's ground game gets stuffed in a locker. Johnson cranked out 2.3 YPC on 19 carries against the Longhorns, and while Texas may be the only team in the country that can claim better DTs than Michigan their team run defense grades are nearly identical. Texas got a fourth-down stuff in the first half and Washington felt a bit like Ryan Day trying to scheme up third and short conversions that Michigan sees as automatic. Washington is 100th in power success rate and 62nd in line yards and that's with the running game having the advantage of being the changeup to a lethal passing game. It does not appear that anyone on the Washington line is likely to whoop up on Michigan defenders to the point where they have to add another guy to the box.

If Michigan does go with a six man box they're not likely to repeat Texas's 2.3 YPC; "stuffed in a locker" is context-dependent here. Michigan isn't going to sweat giving up 4-5 yards here and there as long as it's not consistent enough to put Washington in third and one. Anything longer than a yard is third and medium given the rush offense and rush defense on offer here.

The wildcard is Penix. You may remember Penix as a reasonably mobile guy while at Indiana, but he has just 21 non-sack carries on the season as Washington put a premium on keeping their oft-injured QB healthy. This changed a bit against Texas. Washington ran power read (or "inverted veer") four or five times, with Penix keeping a couple times. This is likely to remain on the menu, and I wouldn't be surprised if they amped it up in the title game. Six man boxes get a lot less tenable when the QB is carrying the ball.

Just how much Washington is willing to risk Penix is an open question, but I would expect a number of high-leverage moments where Penix has the ball in his hands across the line of scrimmage.

KEY MATCHUP: WASHINGTON vs THIRD AND SHORT. If Washington wants to win this game they have to convert 3-4 short yardage opportunities.

Pass Defense vs Washington

[Washington University Athletic / Marc-Gregor Campredon]

Here is the game. This is a true clash of titans. Michigan is 4th in PFF pass rush grading and 1st in coverage. Washington is fifth in pass protection, third in passing, and first at receiving. This is the best pass offense in America against the best pass defense in America.

Michael Penix was plenty scary as the quarterback at Indiana, when he had some decent wideouts and protection guaranteed to get him murdered halfway through the season. At Washington, with a team built around protecting him, he has been insane. The dimes he dropped in the Texas game are enough to win against anyone, anywhere, anytime. One of the tenets of UFR over the years is that if the offense executes perfectly, they win. Penix is the living embodiment of that. What Penix was doing against Texas was indefensible:

Penix has not played like that the whole season. A few weeks ago he was durdling through Oregon State and Washington State, averaging about six yards a throw. He is not superhuman. He is averaging 9.4 YPA with 37 TDs and 10 INTs, though… so not that far off.

Washington may have the best receiver room in the country. Rome Odunze is the star. He's headed for the first round of the draft and would have been the Biletnikoff winner in almost literally any other year. He's averaging 17.9 yards a catch, has caught two-thirds of his 131 targets, and has caught 20 of 27 contested balls. All of that is nuts.

Everyone hates goal line fades, but it's fine when this Washington team runs them.

The rest of Penix's options aren't quite on that level but they're not far off. Ja'Lynn Polk is the other outside guy and has extremely similar numbers minus about 30 targets. He's "only" bringing in 57% of his contested catch attempts, which he has 21 of. Jalen McMillan and Germie Bernard mostly operate out of the slot. They're only targeted when they're open, but that's frequently. While Washington does run its fair share of screens neither guy is a pigeonholed gadget guy; both are capable downfield receivers. On top of that, TE Jack Westover is a reliable chain-mover with 41 catches on 50 targets and one drop.

One thing you may have noticed in the highlights above is that Penix did get some pressure, but it did not matter. Penix is exceptionally good at finding space in the pocket, and Washington is exceptionally good at not having incidents where multiple guys get beat, leading to a sack. Washington has given up just 11 on the season on a whopping 534 dropbacks. They won the Joe Moore award largely on the strength of their pass pro. Tackles Roger Rosengarten and Troy Fautanu are fifth and eighth in pass block grading nationally; center Parker Braislford isn't far off. The guards don't grade out as well but they're both solid players, particularly 6'8" Juilus Buelow.

They've kept Penix clean on 74% of his attempts, which is a good but not astounding number. It's 26th of 147 nationally, though it would be better if Buelow hadn't missed six games with a high ankle sprain. The problem for Michigan is that Penix is averaging 8.3 YPA when pressured, though his completion percentage does drop off a cliff.

This unit appears to have no weaknesses.

So what do you do with this? Run your defense. The good news for Michigan is that since they imported Mike Macdonald three years ago they've built their program around defending NFL-level passing attacks. This space has occasionally expressed irritation at Michigan's insistence on treating every opposing quarterback like CJ Stroud. This is because we are dumb. We do not gather the vibes, man. It turns out that playing approximately 95% of the year with two deep safeties and a six-man box against 11 personnel is the best possible idea.

The recipe here is likely to be the Stroud recipe: play off, make them drive the field, and tighten up in the redzone. Stroud was able to rack up tons of passing yards in 2021 and 2022 but couldn't crack 30 points either year. That's because third and short was third and medium due to OSU's dismal power success rate against Michigan's short yardage defense. The same formula applies here: as mentioned, Washington is 100th in power success, and their main running back may not be full-go.

Penix has a couple advantages Stroud did not, however. One is Rome Odunze provides a jump-ball threat Stroud never had at OSU, for all their star WRs. The other is his ability to hammer deep balls due to the protection he gets. Penix fires deep balls about 33% more than Stroud did because his protection allows it. Michigan can't make Washington drive the field if they're popping off 40-yard chunks.

Michigan has been reticent to play matchups with their corners but I imagine that they'll make an exception for Odunze in the redzone. Dude is bringing in three-quarters of his contested opportunities; Michigan has to stick Will Johnson on him. Right?

KEY MATCHUP: FOUR MAN RUSHES vs THE JOE MOORE AWARD. Strength versus strength here as Michigan sports one of the best pressure numbers in the country without being particularly blitz-oriented. Michigan has a shot at ripping through these guards often enough to put Penix in long yardage situations; every single DT who will play in this game has a win rate of 10% or better.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Washington is 41th in FEI special teams, with particular success on kickoffs, which don't matter. There's nothing in Washington's stats to suggest they're actually good at kick returns; I assume that FEI is not filtering out results from onside kicks, which Washington has faced an unusually high number of (four). FWIW Washington kind of half-squibbed a bunch of kickoffs against Texas, forcing the Longhorn returners to pick up and return the ball. The net impact of this was minimal.

Their specialists are decent. Punter Jack McCallister is a very boring punter with a 41 yard gross average and just 28 return yards ceded on the season. This might be a game to stick your most reliable punt catcher back there and just fair catch everything. McCallister is close to dead last in hangtime nationally, but when they're short it doesn't matter.

Kicker Grady Gross is pretty good but is also a candidate to execute a #collegekickers. He's 16/20 on the year but just 4/7 from 30 to 39; he has not attempted a 50-yarder. FEI has him 41st nationally.

Rome Odunze returned a punt for a touchdown against Cal, seemingly as a lark—he has not returned a punt since. Remarkably, five other guys have returned punts this year, mostly to little effect. They did not put Odunze back there against Texas, FWIW.

KEY MATCHUP: AHHH YOU PUT IT THROUGH THE UPRIGHTS

INTANGIBLES

CHEAP THRILLS

Worry if...

• Michigan's in great coverage on Odunze and it makes no difference.
• Penix is throwing the ball into tiny windows.
• The special teams debacles continue.

Cackle with glee if...

• Washington is kicking field goals.
• 2022 Blake Corum makes an appearance against a mediocre rush defense.
• Michigan's getting to Penix with four.

Fear/Paranoia Level: 5 (Baseline 5; +1 for Ye Gods Penix, +1 for Ye Gods That Receiving Corps, +1 for Ye Gods 11 Sacks On 500+ Dropbacks, –1 for You're Ranked What In Rush EPA Allowed?, –1 for Dead Last In Pac-12 In Sacks, –1 for 44th In SP+ Defense, –1 for This Matchup Is What Michigan Prepares For All Year Every Year, +1 for Lingering Fear Of Michigan In The Postseason, –1 for 13 Point SP+ Spread, +1 for Kalen Deboer Trick Play BagORama, +1 for I Mean It's The National Title Game, –1 for Blake Back FR FR?)

Desperate Need To Win Level: 10 (Baseline 5; +5 for It's The National Title Game)

Loss will cause me to... well… I mean. I'll be disappointed but can't ask for a whole lot more.

Win will cause me to... float.

The strictures and conventions of sportswriting compel me to predict: 

Three of the four non-special-teams units above look like clear Michigan advantages, so the question is: can Michael Penix do that again? I don't think it's likely what with Michigan's defense being what it is. Someone derided Michigan's defense as "Texas with better DBs" but uh yeah that's kind of important when one team has the #1 PFF coverage grade and another has #62. I have no doubt Penix will put up numbers. I don't think he's going to bomb Michigan into the stone age.

On the other side of the ball this defense looks very pliable. Michigan shouldn't have to pull out all the stops to move the ball, and if the run game looks like Texas's one thing Michigan will not do is RPO their way into third and long several times. Sarkisian didn't have the patience to grind Washington into dust, and while SOS plays some role you don't roll into a game against Michigan with several rush D metrics close to last nationally and not get your ass handed to you.

Finally, three opportunities for me to look stupid tomorrow: 

• Corum averages 6 YPC.
• Penix throws for 300 yards but Washington has to attempt two field goals and another drive ends on downs.
• Michigan, 33-25.