Essentials

WHAT	#2 Michigan (3-0) vs Rutgers (3-0)
WHERE	Michigan Stadium Ann Arbor, MI
WHEN	Noon Eastern
THE LINE	M –24 (Vegas) M -26 (Bill C)
TELEVISION	BTN PBP: Cory Provus Color: Jake Butt
TICKETS	From $94.
WEATHER	sunny minimal wind around 70

Overview

Rutgers! We meet again. Hooray. The one unambiguously good thing about the Big Ten inflating to ludicrous proportions is that this annual "rivalry" is likely to get shelved for a while as the Big Ten ceases to schedule one of the least interesting games in college football. With the exception of a Brady Hoke pratfall, for years and years this game has been Rutgers trundling to 200 yards of offense one three-yard crossing route at a time as Michigan either blows the doors off (Ash era) or screws around with a Tecmo Bowl-level playbook waiting for Rutgers to self-immolate (Schiano era).

This looks like more of the same.

[AFTER THE JUMP: hope you like screens]

Run Offense vs Rutgers

[Wilcomes]

Greg Schiano can scheme up a decent defense out of twine and refrigerator magnets, and now he's got some decent talent. Last year, one-time Michigan Guy Aaron Lewis was a one-dimensional pass-rusher who Karsen Barnhart obliterated on the ground; this year he's grading out much better in that department, per PFF. Alex also quite likes their MLB:

Powell earns the Dangerman designation this week and is the 12th-highest graded ILB in PFF's grading among players at the position to play at least 50% of his team's snaps.

And the results look good so far. Opponents are averaging 2.5 YPC.

There is a catch. It is a very large catch: Northwestern and VT are 114th and 126 in YPC, respectively. You might look at the box score and say "holding VT to 3.4 YPC is pretty good"… and then you find out that VT put up 109 yards on 43 carries against Old Dominion and 11 yards on 22 carries—not a typo—against Purdue. The only reason Temple isn't down at the bottom with Rutgers's other two opponents is a 290 yard outburst against Norfolk State; they put up 61 yards on 28 carries against Akron. There's Ain't Played Nobody, and then there's this.

Even in the VT game Alex picked up on some major issues, mostly at DT:

the defensive tackles have mostly been riding in the sidecar and been at fault for some issues in short yardage. The two starters, Isaiah Iton and Mayan Ahanotu were shoved around when VT wanted to:

And another a few plays later:

The PANCAKING that Iton receives there was one of the plays that earned him the cyan circle.

Rutgers blitzballs with the linebackers a ton to make up for this, which could make for some frustrating moments when Michigan finds themselves eating an unblocked guy; it could also open the door for repeated play action shots, a la ECU, or for Michigan to go jumbo and barrel off the edge.

I am personally skeptical that Lewis is going to be a good run defender right now, even if he's improved, and we've seen enough from Barner and Bredeson to suggest that beefing up and going off tackle is going to be profitable. The other end, Wesley Bailey, returns, and last year Jeffrey Persi put up a +5.5-2 against him. I just don't see how the Rutgers DL isn't going to get paved. Last year Corum and Edwards combined for 218 yards at over six a pop and that was despite Michigan's bull-headed redzone approach that saw them run dive after dive after dive.

Rutgers will try to make up for this by getting weird and aggressive; it's probably not going to work.

KEY MATCHUP:  

Pass Offense vs Rutgers

last year's story was one of frustration [Wilcomes]

RE: JJ picks. Toss the last game in the bin and start over.

Last year this did not go well for Michigan, but it did go well for JJ McCarthy despite a 13/27, 5.6 YPA stat line. McCarthy put up an 89% DSR and graded out at +10; the UFR post-game said "you could be forgiven if you moaned 'catch the ball' repeatedly on Saturday night." Rutgers did a great job covering Michigan receivers, forcing contested catch attempts; those catches were not made.

Most of that secondary is back, and the Michigan performance was not a fluke. Rutgers finished the year seventh in the Big Ten in raw YPA allowed. That may not sound like much but they were in the Big Ten East, not the West. Amongst East teams, PSU and Michigan were meaningfully better; Maryland was about the same; Indiana, MSU, and… uh… OSU were significantly worse. Rutgers doesn't have any NFL locks, but neither do they have obvious weak spots. The one new guy, Minnesota transfer Flip Dixon, almost got a star per Alex. This will be some level of test.

Also a test: tackle pass protection. When not getting his head caved in on the ground, Aaron Lewis was a menace. Barnhart and Persi racked up nine pass pro minuses between them. Michigan enters this game with questions at tackle; Lewis will provide some answers either way. If we're doubtful Lewis can improve enough in an offseason to hold up on the ground, it's doubly true that Karsen Barnhart probably isn't a vastly different player in year five than in year four. The other tackle will likely be a big upgrade on a redshirt freshman Persi, at least.

Michigan's best bet here is heavy play action. Given the previous section Rutgers is going to have to pour guys across the line of scrimmage in an effort to staunch the bleeding, and when the handoff is not made. McCarthy only has 17 play action dropbacks, per PFF; he's completed 16 of those for 19 yards an attempt. He's 98th of 100 qualifying QBs in PA dropback rate. For the love of everything holy, please let this be an artifact of Michigan not taking the noncon seriously. Every first down dropback should be play action. Every one.

Anyway. This is the most interesting matchup of the day, as Michigan has some potential weaknesses Lewis can exploit.

KEY MATCHUP:  ROMAN WILSON vs CONTESTED CATCH OPPORTUNITIES. In that he shouldn't have any. We've seen Wilson be hand-wavingly wide open virtually all year; this is an upgrade in competition level. McCarthy should be looking for him first when it's time to go deep.

Run Defense vs Rutgers

[Wilcomes]

First: various folks are reporting that Mason Graham will be out for this game. I saw it first from Josh Henschke on Rivals.

As far as Rutgers goes, this has been the engine of their offense through three games. Running back Kyle Monangai currently leads the Big Ten with 357 yards, averaging 6.1 YPC. He's a wee fella who could be regarded as Rutgers-brand Corum:

If Rutgers can provide some cracks he's a good bet to find them.

About that, though. Alex noted in FFFF that they've turned over their OL. The guy he liked least from last year's line is the only guy who returns… and now Alex likes him best:

Rutgers' offensive line has been a sore spot for years and the projection coming into the season was for it to be as bad as ever, with heavy attrition from last season. Last year's RT Hollin Pierce has slid over to LT and despite getting a cyan last year, he was surprisingly strong in the VT game, a major catalyst for Rutgers' left-handed rushing attack. … On the other side of the line, the RT entering the season was Tyler Needham, who looked okay through 1.5 games before an injury against Temple sidelined him for the Virginia Tech game. In his place was Kamar Missouri, who had a very poor showing and earned a cyan. …

On the interior of the line, C Gus Zilinskas is both our name of the week winner and the most-used lineman on the team. He came close to a cyan with a poor performance against Virginia Tech, but the PFF grades from his other two games were good enough for me to avoid putting it on him. Kwabena Asamoah starts at RG, a player who I only noticed three times and all three were negative moments. That, plus a track record of subpar play, earned him a cyan. The final guard spot has been a rotation of Curtis Dunlap Jr., Bryan Felter, and Mike Ciaffoni.

So that's a backup RT with a cyan, a guy who would have been cyan if Alex was just looking at the VT game, another guy with a cyan, and then a three-way battle that is only a lack of clarity away from probably another cyan. It's doubtful this line is better than last year's despite the nice stats so far, and the skill position players are the same. The results from 2022: Monangai had four carries for 17 yards in 2022; Wimsatt did not run the ball.

It is possible that the shift in offensive philosophy helps out here. Wimsatt averaged barely over one called run a game last year; this year he's had 7 called runs per game. That's in the heart of this site's "hey, run your quarterback some" ideal and will complicate things for linebackers and safeties since Wimsatt can threaten a run and then pull up for a Denard-era QB oh noes.

To do that, though, you have to block the front four well enough to involve the linebackers. Even without Graham available, a quick glance a the Michigan front without him still reveals several balls of knives who will probably take turns obliterating Rutgers rushing attempts. If Rutgers was so convinced that any rush between the tackles was pointless last year that they gave their primary RB four (four!) carries, and Kris Jenkins/Jaylen Harrell/Braiden McGregor, etc., still exist, and Rutgers has one returning starter it is highly improbable that much changes here.

KEY MATCHUP: KENNETH GRANT vs THE SECOND HALF. Grant is going to see significantly more time in this game. He's flashed some incredible stuff for a 340-pound dude thus far, but can he maintain that level of play with increased fatigue?

Pass Defense vs Rutgers

[Paul Sherman]

Last week the run defense section started off with a "No," and then grudgingly continued from there. This could easily be the same. Sophomore QB Gavin Wimsatt is completing 52% of his passes for 6.2 YPA and is coming off a 7/16, 46 yard performance against Virginia Tech. Computer scientists despair about the impossibility of a truly random number generator, but I have good news: just base your algorithm on Wimsatt completions. BryMac already embedded this but here's every attempt against VT:

This includes one beautiful touch pass on the run that arcs over a defender for a spectacular completion… and three or four five-yard passes that are nowhere near anyone. Also eight more three yard passes that are complete and immediately tackled. Wimsatt remains Caris Levert young and has upside remaining, but he is not ready for this heat.

Compounding matters is a dearth of WR talent. Rutgers is usually able to scrounge up a four-star slot receiver who wants more targets than a 5'8" guy will get anywhere else in America, but Bo Melton's gone and the Cable Subscribers' leading receiver this year is transfer JaQuae Jackson, out of California… University of Pennsylvania.

A brief digression for folks who just had a psychotic break. There is a California University of Pennsylvania. There is an Indiana University Of Pennsylvania. These colleges are located in the towns of California, Pennsylvania and Indiana, Pennsylvania. They are understandably in a perpetual state of confusion about who and what they are. CUP recently rebranded as "PennWest California," bringing the number of names it's had in its ~150 year history to six. IUP is sticking it out with their transparently nonsense name. Good on them. Anyway, they play in the same conference as Slippery Rock… in DII.

Rutgers also rolls out seniors Isaiah Washington and Christian Dremel; they combined for four catches a year ago. As a rule, if you are a Rutgers Cable Subscriber and are a rounding error going into your senior year you're probably not a secret weapon.

Rutgers has only given up one sack, but their whole passing game is centered around the premise that if they have to pass protect for more than 1.5 seconds the world will end. This is a bad MAC passing game and Michigan has plenty of experience defending those. Expect more of the same.

KEY MATCHUP: MICHIGAN vs COLOSSAL BUSTS. Wimsatt may be able to complete the occasional shot downfield. What separates him from your run of the mill MAC QB is that he does have arm strength and can occasional dole out a high level throw. Moving Rutgers down the field consistently? Not going to happen. If the D keeps guys in front of them Rutgers will dorf it and half to punt.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Punt machine Adam Korsak—the NCAA's all time leader in punt quantity, last year's Ray Guy winner, and the third overall pick in the CFL Global (ie, not Canadian or American) Draft—is gone. Into his mighty shoes steps "Flynn Appleby," who is… yep, Australian. He was actually drafted in to the AFL in 2017:

Appleby's averaging 41 yards a kick and only one of his 15 attempts has been returned so far. Prepare for annoying rollout city.

Rutgers replaced Jude McAtamney, who went 12/18 last year and was 70th in FGE, with redshirt freshman Jai Patel. Patel is 4/5 on the season with a hit from 51. McAtamney still does kickoffs and is putting 82% in the endzone.

Return units are a complete unknown. They do not have a kick return this season and Rashad Rochelle's only punt return went backwards a yard. Worth pointing out that Rutgers blocked two punts last year, one of them against Michigan.

KEY MATCHUP: AHHH YOU PUT IT THROUGH THE UPRIGHTS

INTANGIBLES

CHEAP THRILLS

Worry if...

• JJ McCarthy throws three interceptions and Michigan fumbles a kickoff.
• There's still no trace of Rod Moore.
• Michigan WRs still aren't making contested catches against this team.

Cackle with glee if...

• Rutgers again decides that running is setting downs on fire.
• Wimsatt is in third and long.
• Mom makes pizza rolls.

Fear/Paranoia Level: 3 (Baseline 5; –1 for Your QB Threw For How Many Yards Last Week?, +1 for Aha, But They Retort About How Many Interceptions Our QB Threw Last Week, –1 for Last Year's Game, +1 for Uh Also Last Year's Game, +1 for Hey They Look Decent, –1 for Against The Worst Teams The P5 Has To Offer, +1 for "Worst Teams In P5" Does Not Include Rutgers, –1 for OL Gonna Die, –1 for JJ Bounceback Time, –1 for Spread Is A Brazillion)

Desperate Need To Win Level: 10 (Baseline 5; +1 for The Order Of Bull's Blood Will Taunt Us Mightily, +1 for I Might Have To Stop Calling Them The Cable Subscribers, +1 for I Mean National Championship Teams Do Not Generally Lose To Rutgers, +1 for This Could Be For Years And Years Of Bragging Rights (Please), +1 for We Got Goals Here.)

Loss will cause me to... avoid major cities and important infrastructure; recruit a band of hard men to endure the coming nuclear winter.

Win will cause me to... look forward to not writing this post next year.

The strictures and conventions of sportswriting compel me to predict: 

Both trenches should be Michigan blowouts, and Wimsatt isn't the guy to fix that. Michigan's struggles last year were largely about guys not getting separation, and this year targets going to Wilson, Edwards, and Loveland should have better outcomes. The former two because they'll separate; the latter because it doesn't matter if he separates.

Michigan might stumble a bit early as they get the measure of a real defense, but by the third quarter the pressure they'll put on Rutgers will make them crumble.

Offensively, Rutgers isn't going to look much different than BGSU.

Finally, three opportunities for me to look stupid tomorrow: 

• Roman Wilson: 120 yards, two TDs.
• McCarthy is back to who he was in games one and two.
• Gavin Wimsatt does not reach 100 yards passing.
• Michigan, 43-11.