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From what I can tell, Warde…

From what I can tell, Warde's "board", or response to anything that involves him making a decision, is basically "hire a firm who specializes in ___________ " 

P Coach

P Coach

Coo

Coo

Would it have mattered if he…

Would it have mattered if he did sign? Could just get released from his commitment or transfer bc of the coaching change anyway, right? 

Looks like he's destined for…

Looks like he's destined for ... Georgia? A team who finished 6-12 in the SEC. Cool. Cool. 

Keep em coming, let's find rock bottom. 

After the academic…

After the academic suspension stuff, I'm guessing he's gone regardless. 

I could be wrong, but I don…

I could be wrong, but I don't think it applies to him bc he's a grad transfer. 

You mean the guy that John U…

You mean the guy that John U Bacon said might have interest in coaching Michigan if he's asked, but he's not sure if he'll be asked, and nobody knows anything, but anything could happen at this point? 

And he's only made 323 two…

And he's only made 323 two-point FGs and 290 FTs. 

Already has 357 more threes…

Already has 357 more threes than Larry Bird had in his career. 

His time as head coach…

His time as head coach changed nothing for me. Loved him before. Love him now. 

And let's hope the…

And let's hope the university finds ways to help the coach and the program. 

Imagine Shannon with Pac12…

Imagine Shannon with Pac12 POY Caleb Love and Big12 first teamer Hunter Dickinson.

Point being, Michigan's transfer policy and NIL are as bad as Howard's coaching. Replacing Howard only solves part of the problem. 

So you either hate America…

So you either hate America or peanuts. Which is it? 

Drafting the consensus top…

Drafting the consensus top QB gives you the best odds by far. An analysis by Dave Kluge:

"Success" is an arbitrary term and can have a lot of different definitions, so I chose 5 benchmarks that could indicate "success."

  • 4,000+ passing yards in a season

  • 30+ TDs in a season

  • 80+ career starts

  • Winning a playoff game

  • Making the Pro Bowl

Here's what I found...

QBs drafted No. 1 overall (20 total) in the last 30 years hit these benchmarks at an astonishing rate.

4,000+ yards: 70% 30+ TDs: 45% 80+ starts: 81% Playoff win: 70% Pro Bowl: 70%

Bryce Young, JaMarcus Russell, David Carr, and Tim Couch are the only busts by these standards.

8 of the 16 eligible QBs hit every one of those marks.

And while Trevor Lawrence, Joe Burrow, and Kyler Murray are still too early in their careers to have done so, they will likely join the others within the next few years.

Looking at QBs drafted 2-32 (63 total), the hit rates plummet.

4,000+ yards: 25% 30+ TDs: 24% 80+ starts: 35% Playoff win: 38% Pro Bowl: 33%

Only Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Ryan Tannehill, Matt Ryan, Aaron Rodgers, Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, and Daunte Culpepper hit.

You'd think trimming down to top-10 and top-5 picks would help, but it doesn't.

Picks 2-10 (34 QBs) 4,000+ yards: 29% 30+ TDs: 26% 80+ starts: 41% Playoff win: 54% Pro Bowl: 63%

Picks 2-5 (23 QBs) 4,000+ yards: 26% 30+ TDs: 22% 80+ starts: 39% Playoff win: 35% Pro Bowl: 43%

We remember the busts (Russell, Carr, Couch) and the steals (Mahomes, Allen, Rodgers, Culpepper), but taking the class's QB1 is usually the best practice.

In addition to hitting these arbitrary marks, No. 1 QBs average out better in almost every stat, including W/L record.

Trading back and drafting a cheaper QB may sound good in theory, but here's how much you increase your odds of drafting a QB who will hit these marks at No. 1 as opposed to another top-5 pick.

4,000+ yards: 2.7x 30+ TDs: 2x 80+ starts: 2.1x Playoff win: 2x Pro Bowl: 1.6x

Again, these are arbitrary marks. There are more and better ways to define "success."

But if you want a QB who will throw for 4,000 yards and 30 TDs, make a Pro Bowl, win a playoff game, and start for 5+ years, you're most likely to get that guy at 1.01.

If the odds are up it's…

If the odds are up it's solely bc of Stroud. I don't think Fields is changing the math for Pittsburgh. He's had one career 300 yard passing game, and the Steelers might have less talented receiving options than the Bears had last year with Diontae Johnson gone. 

The difference in Caleb and…

The difference in Caleb and Justin is processing time and release time.

Fields holds the ball longer than any QB in the league, and when he throws he has one of the longest, slowest deliveries. Fields is also inaccurate on routine passes (would constantly throw WR screen at the feet, over the head, for example).

Caleb has a lightning quick delivery and has shown the ability to move from one read to the next (whereas Justin was mostly a one-read QB in college, and didn't improve in the NFL).

Where they are similar, and what scares me, is that they both have a tendency to leave a clean pocket for no reason, and turn a designed play into a scramble drill. That works in college when you're playing Akron or San Jose State, but it doesn't work in the NFL. Watching Caleb against Notre Dame really put up red flags for me. But the alternative is drafting someone less talented or someone with more red flags (Maye, JJ, Daniels, or mystery 2025 QB) -- so I agree with the Bears choice to draft Caleb. 

Up until Stroud

Up until Stroud

Detroit was the only team…

Detroit was the only team consistently let Fields play the style he wanted to play. They would come after him and play man coverage. That gave him 1 on 1 matchups (basically the only scenario he had success as a passer) and it turned the backs of the DBs to allow him to scramble. Detroit would try to spy, but Fields can cook a spy in space. I was baffled that Detroit kept the same approach each game. 

Poles said he wanted to do…

Poles said he wanted to do right by Fields and give Fields a shot to land somewhere he felt comfortable going to. Once Atlanta was off the table, Pittsburgh was probably his best option. Fields had to go, or the locker room would be split. This gives Caleb Williams the best opportunity to succeed. It would've been brutal (especially in Chicago) for Williams to come in and struggle early. The masses would be calling for Justin to start again. Just like they were calling for Bagent to start over Fields. 

Trading the #1 last year was…

Trading the #1 last year was a brilliant move. Up until Stroud started games in the NFL, no one would've taken him over Caleb Williams if given the choice. The return that the Bears got for that trade was huge. If Caleb Williams pans out, it'll be one of the biggest trade hauls since Ricky Williams and Herschel Walker. 

The problem was that he was…

The problem was that he was better when he was running for his life and getting flushed from the pocket. When teams sat back in zones with eyes on the QB and kept him in the pocket, he was inept. It was checkdown city bc he couldn't anticipate guys coming open in windows between zones. He had to see it then throw it, and teams would just let him have the checkdown. The pinnacle was the game against KC this year when he threw 22 times for 99 yards. They just contained the edges, kept him in the pocket, and let him bury himself. 

Seems like the opposite of…

Seems like the opposite of Moore. Instead of continuing the success of his former boss who won a title and went to the pros, he's trying to fix the errors of his former boss who got canned. 

Poles has done a good job…

Poles has done a good job acquiring talent for the Bears too. Trading the #1 overall pick (Bryce Young) got him:

  • Caleb Williams (presumably)
  • DJ Moore
  • Keenan Allen
  • Darnell Wright (starting RT)
  • Tyrique Stevenson (starting CB)
  • 2025 2nd round pick (from CAR)
I actually like the Bears…

I actually like the Bears newest GM. He's the only GM I've liked in my lifetime. He seems to believe that until you draft your franchise QB, you don't want to half-heartedly push for the playoffs by wrapping yourself up with long term contracts just to attract FAs. The goal is to find a QB in the draft, capitalize on that rookie deal, and then spend money. If you go the other route, you end up in NFL purgatory -- not being a serious contender, while not getting good draft picks -- like the recent Vikings teams with Cousins. 

Fields wows a lot of people…

Fields wows a lot of people with highlight runs, but whatever he gives you in the run game doesn't come close to offsetting the negatives.

Obviously, he's had his issues passing (167 yards per game in his career, only one 300-yd passing game, and only 13 career 200-yd games in 40 starts), but turnovers have been the biggest issue. He's only had 40 TDs with 30 INTs. And the real killer -- 38 fumbles in 40 games. As bad as he is at reading defenses and anticipating throws, his pocket awareness is even worse. That's also what leads to his injuries. He's good at avoiding contact when he runs, but in the pocket he holds the ball longer than anyone in the NFL -- and that's where he gets beat up. 

But again, he's a great kid, and I really do think he tried his hardest. Teammates loved him. Coaches and media loved him. He just never improved on the things he wasn't good at. His (slightly) increased production last year was more of a result of having more talent and a better line than it was him improving. 

If you guys can play him…

If you guys can play him enough to get us a 4th rd pick, I'll be stoked. That'll replace the cost we paid to get Keenan Allen, who filled the WR spot that Claypool f'd up.

Keeping Fields would be a…

Keeping Fields would be a mistake also. And the QB prospects in the draft next year aren't great (meaning a trade back isn't appealing). So, the Bears don't have many options. Rolling the dice on a guy some experts throw the annoying "generational QB" label on is the most logical decision. 

Bears fan here. I couldn't…

Bears fan here. I couldn't be happier that the Bears moved on. Fields seemed like a good kid and everything, but it was more than apparent that he couldn't process things quickly enough. He had to see guys come open before letting it go, and that put a low ceiling on his game. Unfortunately, I see a lot of that in Williams too -- but maybe he can improve. Fields had more than enough time to improve, and he never did. 

Very possible. Also possible…

Very possible. Also possible that they suspend him while he seeks treatment. Alcoholism and alcohol use disorders fall under the ADA. Obviously an OWI changes the math a bit, but it probably comes down to what conduct parameters were laid out in his hiring, and how badly they want to keep him.

For comparison, Kevin Sumlin got a DUI within a year of of being hired at Maryland. He was away from the team for a bit, alcohol classes, got probation, and it pretty much disappeared:

"We're aware of the charges. It's disappointing. As coaches, we have to set the example and model the behavior that we want [from] our players -- and we take it very seriously," Locksley said. "At the same time, I will also say he's part of our football family, and we're going to support Kevin."

I'm guessing the media attention will be a bit more intense for Michigan/Scruggs. 

Well ...


While a senior…

Well ...

While a senior football player at the University of Louisville, Scruggs was arrested on a DUI charge in 2011 and dismissed from the team before the Belk Bowl.

I think people need to brace…

I think people need to brace for an underwhelming hire. I can't see why any high level coach would come to Michigan. You're signing up to fight one-handed. You could say they'd come for more money -- but most of these coaches could take other jobs that would pay Michigan-level salaries (or better) and without the hurdles. 

Hoiberg relies heavily on…

Hoiberg relies heavily on transfers. Horrible fit, thanks to Michigan's never-ending quest to make things more difficult than they need to be. 

Harbaugh loved Orji. That's…

Harbaugh loved Orji. That's enough for me to get on board if he's deemed starter. 

JUB: says shit, knows…

JUB: says shit, knows nothing.

In just one tweet ...

  • "might" consider
  • "if" asked
  • "I don't know"
  • "Nobody knows anything"
  • "Anything could happen"

I mean seriously. He seems like an ok guy and all, but why even tweet shit like this (other than pumping social media interactions)?

 

Nah. They are aren't…

Nah. They are aren't familiar with NIL and the portal. Or at least not the portal that matters for college basketball. 

....

13. Brad Underwood

14…

....

13. Brad Underwood

14. Scott Drew

15. Lamont Paris

16. Bill Self

17. Mark Few

My hot list:


Kelvin…

My hot list:

  1. Kelvin Sampson
  2. Dan Hurley
  3. Matt Painter
  4. Hubert Davis
  5. Rick Barnes
  6. Tommy Lloyd
  7. Thomas John Otzelberger
  8. Greg McDermott
  9. John Calipari
  10. Shaka Smart
  11. Jon Scheyer
  12. Bruce Pearl

If they all say no:

  1. John Beilein

 

He's a dog. Took the role as…

He's a dog. Took the role as Ravens pregame Hype Man after Ray Lewis and Suggs moved on.

https://youtu.be/q1_MzqYRDi0?si=2GmqKgShiMvtt_An

Thanks for your sacrifice…

Thanks for your sacrifice. Now go bathe.

What's more jaw dropping for…

What's more jaw dropping for a RB position coach hire, than Michigan hiring Ohio State's RB coach? If that's not jaw dropping, who would be? Tom Brady? Charles Woodson? 

Petitti will require Alford…

Petitti will require Alford to be subjected to the Men in Black memory eraser to ensure no signs or plays are transfered from Alford's mind to UM's intelligence gathering department. 

I'm not seeing an issue for…

I'm not seeing an issue for returning:

  • 2019 redshirt
  • 2020 COVID
  • 2021 year 1
  • 2022 year 2
  • 2023 year 3

He should have a year left. Also shouldn't be an issue with agents, bc you can have them now. 

But the options weren't Sabb…

But the options weren't Sabb or QJ. It actually seemed like the options were portal, play someone with no experience, or pray Moore and Paige could play every snap of the season. Then QJ appeared from nowhere. It's a good thing. The guy had game-changing plays against Ohio State and Alabama last year. 

Fire Warde and ask questions…

Fire Warde and ask questions later. Tell him it would appease the Big Ten and Tony Pettiti, and he might just resign to make his conference Daddies happy. 

This kid probably didn't get…

This kid probably didn't get much of anything out of NIL prior to this season, and he was here well before NIL started. He'd have an uphill battle making an NFL roster and would probably be a UDFA. Now he actually gets a chance to make a decent bit of money from playing football. This is the scenario that leads you to complain about NIL?

He's back (link)

He's back (link)

Sooo ... Denard? 

Sooo ... Denard? 

Harbaugh thinks he's great…

Harbaugh thinks he's great. He wasn't baselessly hyping up other QBs he coached at Michigan this way. I'd think Harbaugh's giddiness about JJ would be reassuring to NFL teams. The guy knows a bit about quarterbacking. 

One pretty unique thing…

One pretty unique thing about JJ is he has zero issues with his character and makeup. I can't think of anything that he has done since he was a recruit that would be viewed as a negative (or even a question mark) in the NFL background checks. The guy was just all about Michigan , Harbaugh, teammates, and winning.