Essentials

WHAT	#2 Michigan (8-0) vs Purdue (2-6)
WHERE	Michigan Stadium Ann Arbor, MI
WHEN	7:30 Eastern
THE LINE	M –32.5 (Vegas) M –36.5 (Bill C)
TELEVISION	NBC PBP: Noah Eagle Color: Todd Blackledge
TICKETS	From $111.
WEATHER	cloudy minimal wind mid-40s

Overview

Purdue made the Big Ten Championship Game last year on the back of Aidan O'Connell and Chuck "Charlie Jones" Sizzle, supported by the fake-flea-flickerin'-est coach east of the Pecos River. All of those dudes are gone. O'Connell  and Jones both went in the fourth round of the NFL draft; Jeff Brohm was finally, inevitably raptured up by the Louisville program where he cut his teeth as a quarterback.

Purdue responded by hiring Illinois defensive coordinator Ryan Walters. In the recent annals of third-tier Big Ten football programs hiring coaches this qualifies as a very good idea, but Walters was the king of man coverage last year with Devon Witherspoon and company. Jumping into year zero at Purdue with a nearly exclusive man coverage approach is… difficult. Purdue has suffered. They're 2-6 and coming off a 31-14 hammering at the hands of a Nebraska program that Michigan hammered 45-7.

Get ready for another whoopin'.

[AFTER THE JUMP: Year Zero]

Run Offense vs Purdue

[Fuller]

Uniquely amongst Big Ten teams, and possibly all D-1 teams. Purdue runs a straight-up five man front on ~all plays. Alex charted Purdue against Ohio State, which is not a threatening run offense, and came away thinking the Boilers had a bunch of guys who are Just Guys:

Their first team defensive line generally did a solid job holding their ground and not getting pushed around. I think they should pose a mild test to Michigan's offensive line but they don't have any impact dudes in the middle of the line to be worried about.

The scheme here does demand that Michigan does something other than run duo a billion times, because three DTs means you will not have the ability to get doubles on the interior. This is unlikely to be a problem; just something to watch out for.

Statistically, things have gone pretty well for the Boilers. Wisconsin hammered them for 6.4 YPC in a 38-17 Badger win but nobody else on the roster has had a particularly productive outing. Nebraska and OSU are coming off 3.3 and 3.5 YPC days, respectively, but OSU in particular is shockingly bad on the ground—103rd in success rate and 104th in EPA/play. Michigan's problems are all about hitting dingers; they're 24th in success rate but only average in EPA/play.

Purdue might be a get-right opportunity for Michigan, as they're dead last in the league at giving up 20 and 30 yard runs, and close to dead last in giving up ten-yard runs. I'm trying to figure out how this fits together with their advanced stats, where they're 37th in EPA/play but relatively bad when it comes to success rate (78th). The fancy stats suggest that this is a team that gives up the first few yards but not many more, and the regular-ass stats say Purdue gives up a ton of long runs. And, yeah: FS Dillon Thieneman is the team's leading tackler with an average depth of tackle of 10.2.

¯\_(?)_/¯

FWIW, PFF thinks that four of the six DTs that rotate are mediocre at best and gives both starting LBs a 51. Purdue doesn't have the personnel to shut down the Michigan ground game, but the two DEs—by far the team's best players and dudes discussed in more detail in the next section—will be an interesting test for Michigan's to-date superb TE/FB blocking. This is a five man front where the lightest guy is 260; it's possible that hitting the outside will be tougher than you'd think.

KEY MATCHUP:  MICHIGAN RUNNING BACKS vs C'MON, DO SOMETHING. Make plays!

Pass Offense vs Purdue

[Barron]

Ryan Walters is gonna Ryan Walters. In Alex's charting of the Ohio State game, he found Walters put Purdue in zone coverage a total of four times, all of them super-sneaky-surprise eight-man drops that didn't bother Kyle McCord at all. Everything else was man coverage with a safety 20 yards away from the LOS, as Walters does.

As a result it is feast or famine for the Boilers here. On the bright side, opponents are only completing 55% of their passes. On the less bright side, the only team in the Big Ten to have given up more passing plays of 20+ yards is Michigan State, and both those teams are five chunk plays allowed clear of #12 Illinois. It turns out "have Devon Witherspoon" is a pretty good idea if you want to run a Ryan Walters defense.

There are none of those on Purdue's current roster. Penn State transfer CB Marquis Wilson was grading out pretty well on PFF but was lost for the season after week five. What's left over is not great. CB Markevious Brown and nickel Cam Allen are grading out with a 49 and 53, respectively. Starting box safety Sanoussi Kane is also getting bombed, grading out with a 50. Those three players are collectively giving up almost ten yards a target. Every single LB/Edge who has appreciable coverage snaps is also grading out as trash-tier. The only player with a reasonable amount of time who PFF does not loathe is free safety Dillon Thieneman, who has faced eight targets this year because he's playing in deep centerfield and there's no need to bother with anything that could involve him.

Nic Scourton (@NicCaraway3) of @BoilerFootball with the chop/spin sack. Beats the over-setting tackle & RB chip with the spin move inside. Executes a textbook “gator roll” tackle for the sack! #passrush #boilerup

S/O @CoachCook73 for the clip! pic.twitter.com/EZdScGe9g2

— DLineVids (@dlinevids1) September 12, 2023

Purdue does have a couple of excellent pass rushers. Edges Nic Scourton and Kydran Jenkins both have win rates around 17%; Jenkins has seven sacks and 36 total pressures, and that's despite a defensive scheme that inanely drops him into coverage almost half the time despite the fact he is awful in coverage. I guess that's a cost of having three DTs on the field. Scourton isn't as productive, stat-wise, but still has 23 pressures on the season. Both guys grade out in the 80s. One of their infinite collection of DTs also pops here. That would be Mo Omonode. The other five DTs who rotate through are just pocket-pushers/cleanup types.

Block Scourton and Jenkins and JJ McCarthy will complete 100% of his passes. If this game provides nothing else it'll give us a very good read on where Michigan's tackles are in pass pro against future NFLers.

One thing Alex notes is how wild Purdue's pressure approach is:

Against Ohio State Purdue rushed more than four players on 70.9% of charted snaps(!!!!), an astronomically high number. As I wrote last season, it's worth remembering that the Purdue's "blitzes" are often just rushing all five guys at the line from their 5-1/5-2 defense, not necessarily sending an LB or corner.

This defense is offering almost zero help to anyone in coverage. Slants don't get buzzed, you don't get a robber to help you out on crossers, you get the free safety and nothing else. God help them against JJ McCarthy.

KEY MATCHUP: DONOVAN EDWARDS vs 2021 MARYLAND. Give me some of that sweet wheel route action, baby. Or an angle route. Or anything.

Run Defense vs Purdue

[Barron]

Purdue wasn't likely to do a whole lot in this game anyway, but their injury situation is reaching critical levels. Starting TE Max Klare is done for the season; so are both starting tackles. Alex issued cyans to all three replacements. Two of the guys on the OL who didn't get cyans transferred in from UNLV and BGSU, and we have seen what UNLV and BGSU OLs do against this DL.

They do have a guy.

Devin Mockobee is back after a breakthrough 2022 and is… definitely present. It's Purdue, so they will frequently forget what the guy in the backfield next to the quarterback is for, or even what he's named. Mockobee has gotten to 20 carries just twice this year and is coming off a 7-carry day against Nebraska. Those seven carries went for 42 yards, but whatever we gotta get our drag routes in. On the season he's averaging 4.7 yards a carry and has been productive in every game save Syracuse when Purdue remembers what he's for. Purdue will also get Iowa transfer Tyrone Tracy a fair chunk of carries; he's averaging 5.4 YPC as a scatback.

These numbers behind this OL is impressive work for the tailbacks but maybe those numbers are based on the fact that Purdue is pass-first and any attempt to emphasize the run game will result in immediate deflation. And there is a near-total lack of explosion here. Purdue is one of just two teams in the Big Ten with zero runs of 30+ yards—Indiana is the other. Per Game On Paper, Purdue pairs a decent rushing success rate (55th) with the #119 EPA/play rush offense in America. Another contributing factor to that #119 rush offense: Mockobee has fumbled six times.

QB Hudson Card gets a couple called runs a game, FWIW.

For its part, Michigan owns the #3 rush defense in America and while you can charge them with Ain't Played Nobody, they're still playing nobody. It would be a massive upset for Mockobee to do much other than break a couple of first down runs in between slogs of –1 to 3 yards.

KEY MATCHUP: MICHIGAN vs BOREDOM. Best way for Purdue to succeed here is by lulling Michigan into a stupor by talking about structural engineering.

Pass Defense vs Purdue

[Fuller]

Texas transfer Hudson Card got just under 200 attempts as the Longhorn backup over the past two years, and he was decent. When Quinn Ewers went out in the 2022 Alabama-Texas game, Card came in, went 14/22 for 7.2 YPA, and nearly completed the upset. He started the next three games and put up 9.2 and 11.2 YPA against Texas Tech and WVU. Those are admittedly bad P5 teams, but they're P5 teams nonetheless, and better than a fair few teams on Purdue's schedule this year.

Card has not been able to maintain that level of production in West Lafayette. After a decent start in the nonconference, Card has thudded to a halt:

• Wisconsin: 21/38, 5.3 YPA, 0 TD, 2 INT
• Illinois: 18/26, 8.3 YPA, 2 TD, 0 INT
• Iowa: 25/40, 6.2 YPA, 1 TD, 2 INT
• OSU: 13/32, 3.9 YPA, 1 TD, 0 INT
• Nebraska: 16/32, 3.1 YPA, 1 TD, 2 INT

That is one good game against Illinois and le hot garbage otherwise. The recent cliff is probably releated to the offensive tackles going down.

It doesn't help that Cards's receiving corps is entirely JAGs. You may remember TJ Sheffield from last year; Purdue supplements him with third-year players Deion Burks and Abdur-Rahmaan Yaseen. PFF's impression of all three is "meh, meh, meh." All grade in the 63-66 range that is the heart of Just A Guy territory. Alex is like yes just guys:

The last man standing from the 2022 group is their #2 WR from last season, slot guy TJ Sheffield. I described him as "a solid option but not particularly exciting" and I think that analysis still holds up, leading the team in catches but not popping on the tape. …no one at WR has made a major splash or is likely headed for NFL success.

Charlie Jones made a major effort to keep Purdue in the Big Ten title game last year; doesn't look like anyone on this year's team is capable of repeating that.

Purdue's interior pass protection has been excellent, but the new starting tackles are probably going to get dumptrucked. Ben Farrell and Daniel Johnston have given up 15 pressures on 135 total pass pro snaps, and it looks like Purdue is warping their offense in ways that will be familiar to Michigan fans who have watched a nonstop parade of overmatched opponents try to dink, screen, and fade their way down the field. Farrell and Johnson's pass pro efficiency drops under 90% on what PFF calls "true pass sets."

This is an air raid with a somewhat competent, experienced quarterback. There will be some opportunities for Michigan to demonstrate their proficiency in the secondary. Or Card will get buried under a wall of meat.

KEY MATCHUP: MASON GRAHAM and KRIS JENKINS vs PROJECTABLE PERFORMANCES. This is a good interior OL, at least when it comes to pass-blocking. If Graham and Jenkins are able to get some stuff done against Purdue that will bode well for the closing stretch.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Purdue has a huge issue at kicker, where they are 132nd in efficiency. Julio Macias and Ben Freehill are collectively 3/10 on the season; both have missed extra points. Do not expect Purdue to kick anything longer than 40 yards, and even that would have to be a fourth-and-nope situation. They've also rotated on kickoffs because Caleb Krockover is only getting a third of them into the endzone. Over half of Purdue kickoffs have been returned.

There's happier news elsewhere in this department. TJ Sheffield is averaging ten yards a punt return; Tyrone Tracy took back a kickoff against Fresno State. Punter Jack Ansell is not good (41 yards gross) but he is boring; opponents only have 56 return yards on the season.

This adds up to the #98 unit in the country, per FEI.

KEY MATCHUP: AHHH YOU PUT IT THROUGH THE UPRIGHTS

INTANGIBLES

CHEAP THRILLS

Worry if...

• Tony Petitti comes out at halftime with a hook.
• Purdue uses this newfangled "writing" technology to confound Michigan's signal schemes.
• Michigan can't match OSU for transitive purposes.

Cackle with glee if...

• Team seems beyond furious.
• The running backs make something happen on their own.
• McCarthy remains locked in.

Fear/Paranoia Level: 0 (Baseline 5; –1 for Team Bad, –1 for Michigan Mad, –1 for Missing Both Starting Tackles, –1 for Running Pure Man Coverage With Cal Haladay At CB, –1 for Michigan Is Going To Dropkick These Goofs Into The Ionosphere And The Cut A Promo On James Franklin After)

Desperate Need To Win Level: 10 (Baseline 5; +5 for Burn It All Down.)

Loss will cause me to... radically rethink how important sign stealing is. 

Win will cause me to... don my +5 cloak of reason and descend once more into the poasting blood wars.

The strictures and conventions of sportswriting compel me to predict: 

Pain.

Finally, three opportunities for me to look stupid tomorrow: 

• Donovan Edwards has 100 yards receiving.
• Hudson Card is sacked six times.
•  Michigan, 44-0