Ooh Shiny Sword
2/25/2021 – Michigan 79, Iowa 57 – 17-1, 12-1 Big Ten
Video games that have made questionable design choices will often have certain levels that, once achieved, massively spike the player's power. Sometimes this is because you've been holding some whiz-bang item in your inventory for six hours that is suddenly wieldable because you hit level 36. You can be an invincible god slaughtering millions of undead and also if you try to wield that purple warhammer you're going to get the worst cramp. I find this to be an annoying mechanic, most of the time.
The other time is when Hunter Dickinson pulls out his heretofore unknown Peacock Slayer and it glints in the sun once, twice, three times.
The next possession resulted in a heavily contested reverse layup that came up short, and the world realigned a little more. The story of this game was not the story everyone expected. I didn't know Michigan could do that.
The story of this season is "I didn't know Michigan could do that" over and over again. When the ability unlocked is holding the probable Naismith winner to 5/17 from two, look out. Michigan held Garza to his second-worst ORTG since midway through his sophomore year. The only team to top this performance was Michigan State, which lost by 30 because it was triple-teaming the post.
Michigan didn't double once except for an apparent moment of confusion, and did more than survive. They dominated the post.
Dickinson singling up Garza allowed Michigan to crush Iowa's three-point shooting. First off, just 19 of Iowa's 69 attempts from the field were threes. That's 28%; Iowa usually has 40% of their shots from deep. Second, Iowa only hit six and four of those were heavily contested, off-the-dribble jacks. There were only four or five looks that were actually good.
Even more remarkably, Iowa had four (four!) assists. Iowa entered this game with the fourth-highest A/FGM nationally. Attempts at the rim were rare: 16 vs 24 midrange attempts, and guys not named Garza go to the rim just eight times. If you can single up Garza Iowa's offense doesn't know what to do because it doesn't have a Plan B guy who can get to the basket or pull Franz stuff on pick and roll.
Synergy play splits tell a tale here:
- Iowa's worst efficiency comes when the PNR ball handler shoots. Iowa had 24 PNR possessions. 3 of them got to the roll man. 21 stuck with the ball handler.
- Iowa had just 13 spot up opportunities. (Michigan had 18.)
- Iowa got forced into 7 isolation situations. (Michigan had 1.)
Synergy doesn't really encapsulate Iowa's proficiency at not-quite-transition post ups based on Garza beating his man down the floor, but IIRC there were zero of those.
This was a master class against the best offense in the country. It started with Dickinson, but everyone played their part from Juwan Howard on down. You do not get that level of lockdown without everyone buying in all the way.
----------------------------------------------------
If you wander over to the seedy side of opponent message boards you'll get a consistent message: Juwan Howard is a figurehead and Phil Martelli is really running things. (Also: Michigan's All-American recruits aren't coming and Howard will take an NBA job in the next few years.)
This has been obviously untrue from the drop. Howard is as involved as John Beilein is on the sideline, shouting out instructions and coaching guys up as they come off, as Martelli sits, watches, and offers the occasional recommendation.
This is Phil Martelli and approve and wholeheartedly agree with your assessment!! @JuwanHoward is the STAR of @umichbball !! #ProudToBe Haiti him https://t.co/RsO797vrEs
— Phil Martelli (@PhilMartelli) February 26, 2021
Hoop Vision's latest post notes that Michigan is running a set Jordan Sperber describes as "the most NBA":
So why “the most NBA play” label?
Admittedly, I don’t watch much (or really any) NBA until the playoffs. But last playoffs, the veer and the baseline exit were the two NBA concepts that jumped out to me the most as lacking representation in the typical NCAA offense.
And Michigan just turned a massively prolific post player into a pumpkin despite playing Austin Davis and Brandon Johns about a third of the time. Davis, a nobody recruit people openly questioned John Beilein for taking, outplayed Luka Garza during their time on the court together. A below-the-rim center with Bill Laimbeer's jumping ability is shooting 70% from the floor. Tell me Juwan Howard didn't do that.
I didn't know Austin Davis could do that. I didn't know Brandon Johns could do that. I didn't know that a basketball team could just keep pulling swords out of its backpack until it finds the one with the right combination of filigree and runes to banish whatever ogre is threatening the village this time around.
[After THE JUMP: Franz gets his due]
BULLETS
[Campredon]
Sorry Franz, you got knocked out of the main column. It's hard to imagine any situation other than "freshman center detonates POY" that would keep 21 points on 13 shooting possessions, four assists, and one turnover out of pre-jump hagiography. Here's a personalized highlight reel from—dangit—The Draftmatic:
Wagner coulda shoulda had a couple more assists but Dickinson was robbed of an and-one by a lack of continuation that seemed absurd even on the college level and Iowa was able to recover on his ridiculous pass to Brooks. Also this reel should have included Wagner batting an entry pass out of bounds when Chaundee Brown got switched on Garza.
One of Michigan's second half adjustments was to put Wagner in a ton of pick and roll, where he was devastating. Remember this bit from after the Rutgers game?
Wagner's had 56 PNR possessions, 36 of which have ended in his own shots. Apparently PNR ballhandler offense is pretty inefficient because he's at 0.78 PPP and that's 59th percentile. (Oddly, the guy who scores out of PNR best in the Big Ten is Eric Ayala.)
The other 20 possessions are passes that are split evenly between roll guys/cutters and guys spotting up. PPP for the former: 1.6. PPP for the latter: 0. Michigan has missed all ten of its spot-up opportunities after Wagner passes out of PNR. That's a fluke that's holding down his numbers there.
Further exploration of this method of offense is warranted.
Wagner's performance against OSU and Iowa—mostly Iowa—added 11 PNR possessions to Wagner's total. These shot his personal offense in PNR up to 77th percentile, and when he passes to the roll man or cutters he's 99th percentile. Michigan now has a make after a Wagner spot-up pass but 2 points on 12 possessions is still 0th percentile and artificially depresses what would otherwise be not quite elite PNR performance. But maybe getting there.
Franz is freshman-aged and is still leveling up rapidly. There's a strong possibility he's dominant in the tournament and heads to the lottery.
Speaking of draft items. Sam Vecenie posted his first big board. Michigan players:
- #15 Franz Wagner
- #56 Hunter Dickinson
- #70 Isaiah Livers
Vecenie might not have incorporated the results of the M-Iowa game into this board since Dickinson is still six spots behind Garza.
[Campredon]
Backup centers! Dickinson only played 23 minutes, which felt questionable at times in the first half. In the second half Dickinson went to the bench after his third foul and it just didn't matter, as Michigan continued to extend the lead. Both Davis and Johns put in work, and would have put in more work if they had hit a series of bunnies they usually make.
Garza did get a couple buckets against the backup centers but it was not the endless parade of layups that I feared. Davis walled up sufficiently to force Garza to finish through him, which he did a couple times because Davis lacks Dickinson's Garza-overwhelming size. Davis also went 3/5 from the floor and easily could have gone 5/5 since his two misses were right at the rim.
Johns put in an even more improbable shift, fronting everything he could. Iowa's first attempt to pass it over the fronting resulted in a turnover a couple feet over Nunge's head, and further attempts were not made. He was able to survive several possessions against Garza without allowing a post touch. When he did fail to front and suffer a post entry there was one easy bucket for Garza and one smart foul on the floor.
IIRC Garza had two buckets and a trip to the line in the 12-14 minutes he got someone other than Dickinson, which is even more incredible than Dickinson shutting him off.
One half point. Your author wants to take a victory lap after asserting in the preview that Michigan should roll with one-on-one coverage on Luka Garza so they could shut off the firestorm of threes Iowa usually puts up, but alas. If I do that I have to remind people that on the season preview podcast I was the most pessimistic one specifically because I thought defense at the center spot would be a problem all year.
Elbows and other oddities. Man, Garza flings those everywhere. He did not get called for an offensive foul in this game. There was one late in the first half where the entire Michigan bench leapt out of their chairs and started waving their elbows around like it was a strange new dance move. Nothing.
I'm less mad about that and more mad about Hunter Dickinson getting called for a much less egregious elbow against Ohio State.
Also:
That was the ten second call and a couple people put that in my twitter mentions. I do think that might have been a correct call because on the next possession it seemed like the clock on TV was behind the actual shot clock:
14 on the clock, 15 per the chryon
This was more relevant in the OSU-MSU game. OSU had a three-pointer that seemed clearly out before the shot clock ran out. It got disallowed; with it OSU would have been ahead in the last minute instead of behind. Since it seemed clearly, but barely, out per the chyron it was probably late in the real world.
[Campredon]
Sneaky explosion. Isaiah Livers was both nearly invisible and also scored 16 points on 9 shooting possessions because he hit 4/5 threes. When you can get that kind of output from a guy who's operating mostly as an outlet option who lets the game come to him, you're gonna have a good time. If Livers can defend at all at the NBA level I have to believe there's room on the bench for a guy like him.
Magic number. It's 2. Illinois defeated Nebraska without Ayo Dosunmu last night so they're still in with a chance, but they have a brutal closing slate: @ Wisconsin, @ Michigan, @ Ohio State. Even if they sweep that slate they need Michigan just needs to go 2-2 in their final four to wrap up the conference title.
February 26th, 2021 at 12:58 PM ^
On the 10 second call, it may be that the offensive player has to take possession of the ball in the frontcourt, so even if the ball has passed the line, if the recipient of the pass hasn't caught it before 10 seconds, it's a violation.
A long time ago, the inbounds rule was 5 seconds for a player to take possession, such that on those plays where they roll the ball in-bounds and the offensive player doesn't pick it up so the game clock doesn't start, that should really be a 5 second violation, but they don't call that anymore.
February 26th, 2021 at 1:09 PM ^
Yes the player in the front court has to take possession(catch the ball) . Two feet and the ball is when a person is deemed in the frontcourt
But it felt quick whistle
February 26th, 2021 at 3:36 PM ^
Yup. "Three points over, one point back." Three points are both feet and a ball. One point back is: if any one of those three go back over the line, it's a turnover.
February 26th, 2021 at 12:59 PM ^
this column makes me hot and bothered in the good way
February 26th, 2021 at 1:02 PM ^
Phil Martelli tweets exactly like I imagined he would
February 26th, 2021 at 1:47 PM ^
Was gonna comment on that... LOL! "This is Phil Martelli..." - when his Twitter handle tells everyone who it is! The whole thing screamed 'I am an old man doing something that kids do'!!
But what does "Haiti Him" mean?
February 26th, 2021 at 2:04 PM ^
"Haiti" feels like an autocorrect error but I'm not sure "Hating" makes any more sense there and I can't think of what else it would be.
February 26th, 2021 at 2:42 PM ^
Hail maybe?
February 26th, 2021 at 2:51 PM ^
Seems like the winner, right here!
February 26th, 2021 at 3:18 PM ^
Probably "Hail to him" but he forgot the space and typed "Hailto" (or maybe "Hailti") which got autocorrected to "Haiti".
February 26th, 2021 at 5:32 PM ^
My go-to Haiti reference:
February 26th, 2021 at 1:03 PM ^
#70 Isaiah Livers
I genuinely don't understand this. Livers is shooting 45% from 3 against B1G competition and would at least be an average defender in the NBA and he's projected to go undrafted? Call me a homer, but this feels like another Duncan Robinson situation where he's going to make either these draft analysts or NBA teams look dumb
Your author wants to take a victory lap after asserting in the preview that Michigan should roll with one-on-one coverage on Luka Garza so they could shut off the firestorm of threes Iowa usually puts up, but alas
Sorry Brian, but I think everyone and their mother knew that that is what we should and would do against Iowa
February 26th, 2021 at 1:20 PM ^
Homer stuff aside I think Livers is going to end up a steal. I can easily see a long career as a role-player for him.
Great shooter, some positional versatility, doesn't need the ball in his hands. What team couldn't use that guy off the bench?
February 26th, 2021 at 2:57 PM ^
As a Cavs fan Im honestly wondering if Livers might not end up being a better NBA player than Issac Okoro. Okoro went top 10, Livers is projected at 70. At the very least I dont think the gap is THAT wide
February 26th, 2021 at 8:42 PM ^
Livers is the very definition of a high floor, low ceiling guy. He is unlikely to develop a great deal more so his value in the NBA draft is exactly what he is.
It isn't that he doesn't have value to NBA teams, it's that they can sign players like him off the street all day
and FTR I love Isaiah Livers
February 26th, 2021 at 1:24 PM ^
Ive said this exact thing in a couple other threads. Livers is an NBA player. His shooting numbers are elite and he is both a good defender, and athlete.
February 26th, 2021 at 1:35 PM ^
Not to mention he's a superb freethrow shooter, which if you subscribe to the logic, lends itself well to his shooting translating to the next level
February 26th, 2021 at 1:50 PM ^
Nba execs are dumb. Sophomore Poole over Senior Livers? Come on man its still basketball and Livers isnt some scatback from West Virginia. I dont get it.
February 26th, 2021 at 4:24 PM ^
I think the NBA thought sophomore Poole had more potential as a playmaker than senior Livers will ever have, hence the higher draft selection. Obviously that projection has proven false so far.
February 26th, 2021 at 6:38 PM ^
February 26th, 2021 at 4:23 PM ^
Liver's draft stock is all over the place. I've seen him as high as the late first round (I think it was an ESPN mock) and 70 is the lowest I've seen him so far on any draft board. Like Brian says, if he can play defense at an NBA level a guy like him is worth his weight in gold. 3 and D players are so important to surround the star player(s) on any NBA team.
Duncan Robinson (and loads of other players) is a perfect example of how important those guys can be.
February 27th, 2021 at 1:56 AM ^
I'll try to play devil's advocate. Livers is not very long and is by NBA standards probably a below average athlete. He's also old. A good example of a similar player is Kispert at Gonzaga, who is generally considered a late-1st rounder and he is the kind of guy who can shoot 50+% from 3 in college. Franz Wagner, who can go from the 3-point line to the rim in 2 steps and seems to get a finger on any pass or shot attempted within 10 feet of him, is considered a mid-first round pick and will be a good but by no means great athlete at his position. In general, MGoBloggers underestimate just how exceptional a player without elite tools has to be to make a career in the NBA. Livers could do it, but there are a lot of great older college players with his profile who never make it in the league.
February 26th, 2021 at 1:09 PM ^
So Martelli couldn't win the A-10 since Jameer Nelson and Delonte West (shout out Lebron's mom) left his program 15 years ago, but I'm supposed to believe he is the main reason Michigan is dominating a much better conference?
February 26th, 2021 at 1:50 PM ^
Yes, because Howard doesn't have any coaching experience and is just another dumb jock ex-player. I mean, the 'blue blood' bball fans at RCMB have spoken. How could you doubt this?
February 26th, 2021 at 5:04 PM ^
It’s not that he’s a jock; it’s that he’s black. When it comes to coaching, unfortunately, sports are still preposterously, outrageously, unfathomably racist. Blacks are valued for physiques, not their noggins. It’s clear not just from results but his reputation among NBA players that he was criminally undervalued as a coach.
So thank you, bigots (not you personally). No, really, thank you for being such short-sighted, ignorant, entitled morons that Howard was available when we needed him. In a just world he’d be coaching a competitive NBA team by now but instead we were the beneficiaries of his first head coaching gig. Your stupid was our gain, and do go right on thinking Martelli’s running things so you can overpay for him while we negotiate Howard’s contract extension.
February 26th, 2021 at 5:44 PM ^
Very well said - thank you Dragon!
February 26th, 2021 at 2:11 PM ^
LOL at the Lebron's mom comment.
February 26th, 2021 at 3:16 PM ^
Agreed. The whole staff is awesome, but Howard is the man in charge. People forget he has had a 30+ years career in the highest levels of basketball. When Juwan started out, Martelli probably had hair like John Stamos.
February 26th, 2021 at 4:35 PM ^
At the end of the day, it's just RCMB and similar ilk trying to cope with the fact that their tormentor John Beilein is gone and it looks like we may have replaced him with an even higher ceiling guy in Juwan. Maybe some slight racism mixed in too. Mostly coping
February 26th, 2021 at 1:10 PM ^
I'm kvelling!
February 26th, 2021 at 1:12 PM ^
Proust one day, video games another. I love this blog.
February 26th, 2021 at 1:16 PM ^
I haven't really gone back to look at the preseason expectations yet, like I would often do. I recall that some people were thinking mid-range in the bracket, maybe a 7-8 seed type, scuffling a bit to "hopefully" make the tournament?
That's my vague memory.
Dickinson's defensive emergence is certainly a big deal for playing guys like Garza. Worryingly, though, I think it may encourage him to rise up draft boards... and that might encourage him to go to the NBA. I think after the initial enthusiasm for his emergence wore off, many like me felt that his game isn't really suited for the NBA and kind of began to count on him coming back next year. But guys have jumped to the NBA with less cause, and if someone can make it to the first round, they really *should* make the jump.
OTOH you're not going to get better coaching as a big man at the bottom of an NBA bench than you're going to get as the focal point of a team coached by Juwan Howard, so this is one rare area where "develop another year in college" may have real merit. This Hunter could scrape into the back of the first round, maybe, if he's dominant. A next-year Hunter that adds, say, a reliable 3-point shot, or upgrades his already skilled passing to make people start making Jokic comparisons, is a man that makes serious money.
But if we make a deep run on Hunter's back, we may be replacing everyone in our starting 5 except the PG.
February 26th, 2021 at 1:29 PM ^
I think the NBA development opportunity is undersold around these parts but this is one where Michigan has a great pitch.
There's Juwan (to your point), but also there's the draw of a full and normal-ish Camp Sanderson. Come back for the coaching and skill development, also get quicker feet and add a couple inches to your vertical, go to the NBA ready to compete.
February 26th, 2021 at 1:56 PM ^
If Dickinson were to add a reliable 3-pt shot this off-season along with the usual upgrades in weight, footwork, etc, his 'earnings potential' would be the envy of Wall St brokers. We wouldn't be talking about a lottery pick, we'd be talking about the 1st pick.
February 26th, 2021 at 2:28 PM ^
Unless he shoots 45%+ from the threes next year (on high volume), I don't think we are looking at a lottery pick, let alone a 1st pick with his athleticism. Being able to defend Garza means very little when you are going to go against the likes of Giannis and Embiid.
February 26th, 2021 at 6:07 PM ^
He won't be a lottery pick because he's an average athlete at best and would be exposed on defense against mobile center. His game would be perfect in the 90s but that's not today's league. He was born in the wrong era
February 26th, 2021 at 9:10 PM ^
I'm as much of a UM fan as anyone but at some point reality also has to set it
It is very possible that with a deep tourney run Dickinson would (correctly) value his draft value to be at its peak regardless of any potential to improve his skills if he returned to school
February 27th, 2021 at 1:05 AM ^
Age is a factor because he's already old for a freshman so if he thinks that his stock can't get any better, he could very well declare for the draft. I bet that he'll be back next year to expand his offensive game like more post moves and extend his range to mid-range and possibly 3 pt. Dickinson is a very good post scorer but he doesn't have as many tricks in his bag on post moves as Austin Davis. You can see the difference between the two when they make their moves.
February 26th, 2021 at 2:08 PM ^
> OTOH you're not going to get better coaching as a big man at the bottom of an NBA bench
This is almost certainly false. There are limitations on practice time in the NCAA that make it almost impossible. Like any other right-thinking Michigan alum, I think very highly of Juwan Howard, but if he's that much better than the average assistant coach in the NBA, then he's not going to be an NCAA coach for much longer.
February 26th, 2021 at 2:12 PM ^
While I agree with your overall point on time restrictions, the second point may not follow as Juwan will likely be earning more than most NBA assistant coaches. Besides, he just did that.
February 26th, 2021 at 4:33 PM ^
I think it's more complicated than that. He's the starter and center-piece of the team here so he's going to get the full attention of all the coaching staff from Howard down. He ain't going to get that as a second round pick on an NBA roster. He will be able to practice more, of course, but it's really going to be on him to make the most of the coaching, because he's not going to be a high priority. He might head down to the G-league for seasoning at various points during the season.
February 27th, 2021 at 3:23 AM ^
On top of everything HollwoodHH said, Juwan was clearly an outstanding NBA assistant (judging from the significant interest many NBA teams had in him as potential head coach) - and it's fairly rare for a big man to ascend to head coaching gigs.
Juwan was one of the most intelligent, fundamentally sound post players in recent history - and he clearly seems gifted at teaching. Working with him has to be incredibly valuable.
Furthermore, I find it hard to believe Howard will leave Michigan for $$ - the man made $100M+ in his NBA career. If he decides to jump to the NBA at some point, it's because he aspires to that challenge.
Who knows what Dickenson will do? It could well depend on how Michigan fares in the NCAA Tourney. I feel pretty confident another year under Howard would only enhance his draft stock - yes, he's old for a frosh, but he's still young - plenty of time for a long NBA career.
Final thought: When I first saw Dickenson, I didn't think he had the potential to be anything but an end-of-bench NBA sub. I was wrong. Every part of his game has improved - he now has a little bit of a mid-range shot, his moves, quickness and touch around the basket are improving every day, his court maturity, intelligence and passing are top-notch. He'll never be an NBA star, but I think he could someday start, or at least get serious minutes as a sub.
He'll need to build strength, but I could see him at the level of some lower-end NBA centers like Gortat, Enes Kanter, JaVale McGee, Tristan Thompson, Alex Len, even Nurkic and aging Dwight Howard. All those guys are starters/heavy rotation guys, and they're all flawed and can't shoot much. Dickenson can already shoot FT's, which is more than many of those guys can claim. He's tall, has a pretty solid frame and long arms. There just aren't many 7'+ people, and Dickenson has some real basketball skills.
February 26th, 2021 at 2:09 PM ^
IIRC, B1G was projected tough and UM and OSU were routinely 6/7 in the predictions, with Iowa, Illinois and (cough) MSU at the top. Michigan almost uniformly behind Rutgers.
February 26th, 2021 at 1:18 PM ^
Unfortunately I feel obligated to Google Jack Sikma at this point. I"m going to go ahead and guess he's a less than mobile white guy from a time when players wore short shorts.
February 26th, 2021 at 2:10 PM ^
He was mobile enough for his day, but the reason why he gets a lot of love from TV announcers is because he was a stretch 5 during an era (70s and 80s) when such a thing was rare. He’s also a recent Naismith HOF inductee.
February 26th, 2021 at 6:00 PM ^
Sikma was definitely mobile. I'd forgotten about him but he was a very talented player, who was tough to guard with his ability to shoot from outside with his size.
February 27th, 2021 at 3:31 AM ^
Sikma could really shoot. He wasn't huge, but he was reasonably athletic and strong. He's in the HOF because he could shoot, though.
People forget that Laimbeer had a pretty damn good shot too - an underrated part of his game, and a big part of his value to those great Piston's teams.
February 26th, 2021 at 1:25 PM ^
“Luka Ogre” works for me. Great review as usual Brian.
Continue to enjoy Davis quietly getting it done while other teams are thinking they are getting a breather from Dickinson.
And Franz pulling popping back up to save the day after a meh O-IO game made me giggle like a third grader.
Must say that among all the tasty treats this team delivers consistently, I enjoy most CB coming off the bench to kick the intensity level to 11. You can just see the other team wilt under the pressure.
Haven’t had this much fun since...beating the heat at Pinball Pete’s.
February 26th, 2021 at 2:02 PM ^
Brown reminds me of Vinnie Johnson. The Microwave would come off the bench and immediately ratchet up the intensity by hitting jumpers all over the court. Then he'd sit, giving the defense a break - they'd look around like 'what the fuck was that?'.
Except that 'break' meant that the Pistons starting five was back on the court. (I really miss those Pistons' teams...)
That's kinda how I feel when Brown comes in, immediately lights it up, and then sits. The starting five is back out, and the opponent is thinking 'what the hell just hit us?'...
February 27th, 2021 at 3:37 AM ^
I really like this comparison 1VaBlue1. Brown comes off the bench just itching to shoot, just like Vinnie. Instant offense.
VJ had that outdoor court no-arc, wind-be-damned laser shot that was so much fun to watch - and he released from the top of his outstretched hands, almost impossible to block. Classic playground scoring machine.
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