2/25/2021 – Michigan 79, Iowa 57 – 17-1, 12-1 Big Ten

Video games that have made questionable design choices will often have certain levels that, once achieved, massively spike the player's power. Sometimes this is because you've been holding some whiz-bang item in your inventory for six hours that is suddenly wieldable because you hit level 36. You can be an invincible god slaughtering millions of undead and also if you try to wield that purple warhammer you're going to get the worst cramp. I find this to be an annoying mechanic, most of the time.

The other time is when Hunter Dickinson pulls out his heretofore unknown Peacock Slayer and it glints in the sun once, twice, three times.

The next possession resulted in a heavily contested reverse layup that came up short, and the world realigned a little more. The story of this game was not the story everyone expected. I didn't know Michigan could do that.

The story of this season is "I didn't know Michigan could do that" over and over again. When the ability unlocked is holding the probable Naismith winner to 5/17 from two, look out. Michigan held Garza to his second-worst ORTG since midway through his sophomore year. The only team to top this performance was Michigan State, which lost by 30 because it was triple-teaming the post.

Michigan didn't double once except for an apparent moment of confusion, and did more than survive. They dominated the post.

Dickinson singling up Garza allowed Michigan to crush Iowa's three-point shooting. First off, just 19 of Iowa's 69 attempts from the field were threes. That's 28%; Iowa usually has 40% of their shots  from deep. Second, Iowa only hit six and four of those were heavily contested, off-the-dribble jacks. There were only four or five looks that were actually good.

Even more remarkably, Iowa had four (four!) assists. Iowa entered this game with the fourth-highest A/FGM nationally. Attempts at the rim were rare: 16 vs 24 midrange attempts, and guys not named Garza go to the rim just eight times. If you can single up Garza Iowa's offense doesn't know what to do because it doesn't have a Plan B guy who can get to the basket or pull Franz stuff on pick and roll.

Synergy play splits tell a tale here:

• Iowa's worst efficiency comes when the PNR ball handler shoots. Iowa had 24 PNR possessions. 3 of them got to the roll man. 21 stuck with the ball handler.
• Iowa had just 13 spot up opportunities. (Michigan had 18.)
• Iowa got forced into 7 isolation situations. (Michigan had 1.)

Synergy doesn't really encapsulate Iowa's proficiency at not-quite-transition post ups based on Garza beating his man down the floor, but IIRC there were zero of those.

This was a master class against the best offense in the country. It started with Dickinson, but everyone played their part from Juwan Howard on down. You do not get that level of lockdown without everyone buying in all the way.

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If you wander over to the seedy side of opponent message boards you'll get a consistent message: Juwan Howard is a figurehead and Phil Martelli is really running things. (Also: Michigan's All-American recruits aren't coming and Howard will take an NBA job in the next few years.)

This has been obviously untrue from the drop. Howard is as involved as John Beilein is on the sideline, shouting out instructions and coaching guys up as they come off, as Martelli sits, watches, and offers the occasional recommendation.

This is Phil Martelli and approve and wholeheartedly agree with your assessment!! @JuwanHoward is the STAR of @umichbball !! #ProudToBe Haiti him https://t.co/RsO797vrEs

— Phil Martelli (@PhilMartelli) February 26, 2021

Hoop Vision's latest post notes that Michigan is running a set Jordan Sperber describes as "the most NBA":

So why “the most NBA play” label?

Admittedly, I don’t watch much (or really any) NBA until the playoffs. But last playoffs, the veer and the baseline exit were the two NBA concepts that jumped out to me the most as lacking representation in the typical NCAA offense.

And Michigan just turned a massively prolific post player into a pumpkin despite playing Austin Davis and Brandon Johns about a third of the time. Davis, a nobody recruit people openly questioned John Beilein for taking, outplayed Luka Garza during their time on the court together. A below-the-rim center with Bill Laimbeer's jumping ability is shooting 70% from the floor. Tell me Juwan Howard didn't do that.

I didn't know Austin Davis could do that. I didn't know Brandon Johns could do that. I didn't know that a basketball team could just keep pulling swords out of its backpack until it finds the one with the right combination of filigree and runes to banish whatever ogre is threatening the village this time around.

[After THE JUMP: Franz gets his due]

BULLETS

[Campredon]

Sorry Franz, you got knocked out of the main column. It's hard to imagine any situation other than "freshman center detonates POY" that would keep 21 points on 13 shooting possessions, four assists, and one turnover out of pre-jump hagiography. Here's a personalized highlight reel from—dangit—The Draftmatic:

Wagner coulda shoulda had a couple more assists but Dickinson was robbed of an and-one by a lack of continuation that seemed absurd even on the college level and Iowa was able to recover on his ridiculous pass to Brooks. Also this reel should have included Wagner batting an entry pass out of bounds when Chaundee Brown got switched on Garza.

One of Michigan's second half adjustments was to put Wagner in a ton of pick and roll, where he was devastating. Remember this bit from after the Rutgers game?

Wagner's had 56 PNR possessions, 36 of which have ended in his own shots. Apparently PNR ballhandler offense is pretty inefficient because he's at 0.78 PPP and that's 59th percentile. (Oddly, the guy who scores out of PNR best in the Big Ten is Eric Ayala.)

The other 20 possessions are passes that are split evenly between roll guys/cutters and guys spotting up. PPP for the former: 1.6. PPP for the latter: 0. Michigan has missed all ten of its spot-up opportunities after Wagner passes out of PNR. That's a fluke that's holding down his numbers there.

Further exploration of this method of offense is warranted.

Wagner's performance against OSU and Iowa—mostly Iowa—added 11 PNR possessions to Wagner's total. These shot his personal offense in PNR up to 77th percentile, and when he passes to the roll man or cutters he's 99th percentile. Michigan now has a make after a Wagner spot-up pass but 2 points on 12 possessions is still 0th percentile and artificially depresses what would otherwise be not quite elite PNR performance. But maybe getting there.

Franz is freshman-aged and is still leveling up rapidly. There's a strong possibility he's dominant in the tournament and heads to the lottery.

Speaking of draft items. Sam Vecenie posted his first big board. Michigan players:

• #15 Franz Wagner
• #56 Hunter Dickinson
• #70 Isaiah Livers

Vecenie might not have incorporated the results of the M-Iowa game into this board since Dickinson is still six spots behind Garza.

[Campredon]

Backup centers! Dickinson only played 23 minutes, which felt questionable at times in the first half. In the second half Dickinson went to the bench after his third foul and it just didn't matter, as Michigan continued to extend the lead. Both Davis and Johns put in work, and would have put in more work if they had hit a series of bunnies they usually make.

Garza did get a couple buckets against the backup centers but it was not the endless parade of layups that I feared. Davis walled up sufficiently to force Garza to finish through him, which he did a couple times because Davis lacks Dickinson's Garza-overwhelming size. Davis also went 3/5 from the floor and easily could have gone 5/5 since his two misses were right at the rim.

Johns put in an even more improbable shift, fronting everything he could. Iowa's first attempt to pass it over the fronting resulted in a turnover a couple feet over Nunge's head, and further attempts were not made. He was able to survive several possessions against Garza without allowing a post touch. When he did fail to front and suffer a post entry there was one easy bucket for Garza and one smart foul on the floor.

IIRC Garza had two buckets and a trip to the line in the 12-14 minutes he got someone other than Dickinson, which is even more incredible than Dickinson shutting him off.

One half point. Your author wants to take a victory lap after asserting in the preview that Michigan should roll with one-on-one coverage on Luka Garza so they could shut off the firestorm of threes Iowa usually puts up, but alas. If I do that I have to remind people that on the season preview podcast I was the most pessimistic one specifically because I thought defense at the center spot would be a problem all year.

Elbows and other oddities. Man, Garza flings those everywhere. He did not get called for an offensive foul in this game. There was one late in the first half where the entire Michigan bench leapt out of their chairs and started waving their elbows around like it was a strange new dance move. Nothing.

I'm less mad about that and more mad about Hunter Dickinson getting called for a much less egregious elbow against Ohio State.

Also:

That was the ten second call and a couple people put that in my twitter mentions. I do think that might have been a correct call because on the next possession it seemed like the clock on TV was behind the actual shot clock:

14 on the clock, 15 per the chryon

This was more relevant in the OSU-MSU game. OSU had a three-pointer that seemed clearly out before the shot clock ran out. It got disallowed; with it OSU would have been ahead in the last minute instead of behind. Since it seemed clearly, but barely, out per the chyron it was probably late in the real world.

[Campredon]

Sneaky explosion. Isaiah Livers was both nearly invisible and also scored 16 points on 9 shooting possessions because he hit 4/5 threes. When you can get that kind of output from a guy who's operating mostly as an outlet option who lets the game come to him, you're gonna have a good time. If Livers can defend at all at the NBA level I have to believe there's room on the bench for a guy like him.

Magic number. It's 2. Illinois defeated Nebraska without Ayo Dosunmu last night so they're still in with a chance, but they have a brutal closing slate: @ Wisconsin, @ Michigan, @ Ohio State. Even if they sweep that slate they need Michigan just needs to go 2-2 in their final four to wrap up the conference title.