hunter dickinson the last defensebender

2/27/2021 – Michigan 73, Indiana 57 – 18-1, 13-1 Big Ten

John Beilein's first team at Michigan was not one for the ages. Zack and Stu had not arrived. Ron Coleman and Kelvin Grady started. They took a ton of threes despite finishing 314th behind the line. But I had banged the table for Beilein's hire and spent much of that year looking for whatever molecules of hope oozed out of the morass. I doubled down on wanting Michigan's basketball team to be good by investing Professional Reputation in the new head coach, with inevitable results. I had not been and probably will not again be so invested in a team that was so bad.

Being invested in a bad team is waiting for the run. Your team will scrap out of the gate, hang tight against superior opposition (or, uh, Central Michigan), and provide a flicker of promise. This will feel sort of nice. It will also feel like an anvil is suspended over your head. Inevitably there will come a point where your team is possessed by the spirit of the Washington Generals. The basketball game will devolve into a cartoon fight, all limbs and people groaning "oof".

When the dust clears the opposition is up double digits and ain't nobody climbing that staircase. This is what rooting for a 10-22 team is.

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Even good teams eat runs. Basketball is proverbially a game of them. They're so integral to the idea of the sport that the gold standard of numbers about basketball, Kenpom, has a win probability page which calls them out:

The pictured run is Wisconsin separating from Michigan at the end of the first half of Michigan's first game post-COVID layoff. That first half stands out in my memory as a visit from a different basketball team, one far less polished and precise. I spent that first half trying to remain calm, trying to remember the other, beautiful basketball team. Then they became it again and have not stopped.

Michigan does not eat runs. The above is one of just four runs for the opposition called out by Kenpom in 14 Big Ten games. One of those absolutely does not count because it was Wisconsin punching back 12-2 after Michigan spent 15 minutes battering them 43-6. The others came in the Minnesota loss and in Michigan's Big Ten opener against Penn State. Michigan has faced a run of consequence not explained by a 22 day layoff once since December 13th.

Even John Beilein's best teams had holes you could poke a finger through, first on defense and then on offense. This isn't an attempt to dump on Beilein, he said unnecessarily, it is merely a bare fact that when you've got the #35 offense (as the 2017-18 Final Four team did) or the #37 defense (as the 2013-14 Final Four team did) sometimes things are going to get away from you for long stretches. Not often, but often enough that the disorienting feeling that nothing has ever gone right or will again go right is a semi-regular part of your basketball experience.

This does not happen in 2021. Michigan's defense is relentless. Its offense is a machine designed to create buckets of good shots. The sheer number of coinflips weighted in Michigan's favor that it would require for the opposition to have ten more points than Michigan in a short window of time is too daunting for math, except once against Minnesota of all teams.

This is what it's like to root for an 18-1 team. This is what it's like to root for what may be the best team in the country: like everyone you run across has separate buttons for their thighs and calves.

[After THE JUMP: Franz stays in his spot because it's working]

2/25/2021 – Michigan 79, Iowa 57 – 17-1, 12-1 Big Ten

Video games that have made questionable design choices will often have certain levels that, once achieved, massively spike the player's power. Sometimes this is because you've been holding some whiz-bang item in your inventory for six hours that is suddenly wieldable because you hit level 36. You can be an invincible god slaughtering millions of undead and also if you try to wield that purple warhammer you're going to get the worst cramp. I find this to be an annoying mechanic, most of the time.

The other time is when Hunter Dickinson pulls out his heretofore unknown Peacock Slayer and it glints in the sun once, twice, three times.

The next possession resulted in a heavily contested reverse layup that came up short, and the world realigned a little more. The story of this game was not the story everyone expected. I didn't know Michigan could do that.

The story of this season is "I didn't know Michigan could do that" over and over again. When the ability unlocked is holding the probable Naismith winner to 5/17 from two, look out. Michigan held Garza to his second-worst ORTG since midway through his sophomore year. The only team to top this performance was Michigan State, which lost by 30 because it was triple-teaming the post.

Michigan didn't double once except for an apparent moment of confusion, and did more than survive. They dominated the post.

Dickinson singling up Garza allowed Michigan to crush Iowa's three-point shooting. First off, just 19 of Iowa's 69 attempts from the field were threes. That's 28%; Iowa usually has 40% of their shots  from deep. Second, Iowa only hit six and four of those were heavily contested, off-the-dribble jacks. There were only four or five looks that were actually good.

Even more remarkably, Iowa had four (four!) assists. Iowa entered this game with the fourth-highest A/FGM nationally. Attempts at the rim were rare: 16 vs 24 midrange attempts, and guys not named Garza go to the rim just eight times. If you can single up Garza Iowa's offense doesn't know what to do because it doesn't have a Plan B guy who can get to the basket or pull Franz stuff on pick and roll.

Synergy play splits tell a tale here:

• Iowa's worst efficiency comes when the PNR ball handler shoots. Iowa had 24 PNR possessions. 3 of them got to the roll man. 21 stuck with the ball handler.
• Iowa had just 13 spot up opportunities. (Michigan had 18.)
• Iowa got forced into 7 isolation situations. (Michigan had 1.)

Synergy doesn't really encapsulate Iowa's proficiency at not-quite-transition post ups based on Garza beating his man down the floor, but IIRC there were zero of those.

This was a master class against the best offense in the country. It started with Dickinson, but everyone played their part from Juwan Howard on down. You do not get that level of lockdown without everyone buying in all the way.

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If you wander over to the seedy side of opponent message boards you'll get a consistent message: Juwan Howard is a figurehead and Phil Martelli is really running things. (Also: Michigan's All-American recruits aren't coming and Howard will take an NBA job in the next few years.)

This has been obviously untrue from the drop. Howard is as involved as John Beilein is on the sideline, shouting out instructions and coaching guys up as they come off, as Martelli sits, watches, and offers the occasional recommendation.

This is Phil Martelli and approve and wholeheartedly agree with your assessment!! @JuwanHoward is the STAR of @umichbball !! #ProudToBe Haiti him https://t.co/RsO797vrEs

— Phil Martelli (@PhilMartelli) February 26, 2021

Hoop Vision's latest post notes that Michigan is running a set Jordan Sperber describes as "the most NBA":

So why “the most NBA play” label?

Admittedly, I don’t watch much (or really any) NBA until the playoffs. But last playoffs, the veer and the baseline exit were the two NBA concepts that jumped out to me the most as lacking representation in the typical NCAA offense.

And Michigan just turned a massively prolific post player into a pumpkin despite playing Austin Davis and Brandon Johns about a third of the time. Davis, a nobody recruit people openly questioned John Beilein for taking, outplayed Luka Garza during their time on the court together. A below-the-rim center with Bill Laimbeer's jumping ability is shooting 70% from the floor. Tell me Juwan Howard didn't do that.

I didn't know Austin Davis could do that. I didn't know Brandon Johns could do that. I didn't know that a basketball team could just keep pulling swords out of its backpack until it finds the one with the right combination of filigree and runes to banish whatever ogre is threatening the village this time around.

[After THE JUMP: Franz gets his due]

An arena staffer took out his mop, cleaned up a puddle, and erased the last vestige of the most prolific offensive player in the country from the Crisler Center. That small, salty lakelet was all that remained of Luka Garza, a man who scored 44 points in this building last season. He was held to just 16 tonight, his first live encounter with Michigan’s freshman big man Hunter Dickinson, as Michigan rolled over the best Iowa team of Luka's lifetime.

Dickinson and Garza practiced against each other all summer, and came into this game 6th and 1st in the Kenpom Player of the Year standings, which rely heavily on offensive output and usage. Dickinson won. The battle was decided in the first two possessions, as Iowa isolated Garza on Dickinson, and got two hopeless airballs for their trouble. A few trips later Dickinson blocked Luka's spin-and-under try so authoritatively that Garza went flying into the baseline and Michigan got a run-out (that would have been a dunk but for Iowa guard Connor McCaffery comically hugging Dickinson’s waist to draw a floor foul just in time). The first test—whether Michigan’s kid big  could single-up the best post player in the country—passed with peacock colors.

The second test was whether they could keep Dickinson on the court against the Big Ten’s top foul magnet, and that proved more difficult. An early foul put Dickinson on the bench for the next 8 minutes, and backup center Austin Davis picked up two quick whistles of his own, which led to a few minutes of Brandon Johns and Terrence Williams. Dickinson returned, but picked up his second foul late in the half when Mike Smith gave up a back-cut, limiting him to just 11 minutes in the frame. For all his efforts, Michigan led just 32-29 lead at the half.

A quick third foul, a fluke off a contested rebound that Garza managed to volleyball into the basket, brought up the big third question: could someone else please step up.

Enter Franzman [Campredon]

Franz Wagner did, emphatically. As Dickinson sat back down, Wagner went to work, swooping through hopelessly outclassed defenders and finishing on three straight possessions. He then canned a three when Connor McCaffery rolled an ankle on Austin Davis’s foot, capping a four-minute, nine-point outburst that staked Michigan to a 48-39 lead. Iowa also lost backup big Jack Nunge to a leg injury earlier. Nunge later returned on crutches.

Dickinson returned, but now it was the Franz show. As his swooping drives drew defenders, Franz converted to dishing dimes. His four assists easily could have been seven, but for a few missed layups and Eli clanging his thunderdunk attempt. The fourth assist was the prettiest, a driving bounce pass to Livers, who began said breakout with a steal, and ended it with a dunk that killed Iowa’s last good run. Wagner would finish with 21 points on 13 shot equivalents, going 2/3 from the arc. Livers scored 16--the same as Luka Garza--on let's say fewer possessions.

Danke. Bitte. [Campredon]

Neither Juwan nor Iowa’s Fran McCaffery had to do much whiteboarding, both spending a solid portion of their TV time jawing at the officials. McCaffery’s grand plan was to trap a lot, which led to one 10-second violation turnover, and four easy assists in Michigan’s box score. Fran also picked up a technical. Juwan was close to one or two himself. In fairness to them, there wasn’t much to coach with the Dickinson-Garza fight on. When Michigan tried a zone, they doubled Garza, and Garza dribbled it to an open Weiskamp for Iowa's only easy bucket of the night.

That and ten minutes against the backups couldn't salvage Garza's erasure. His final statline: 5/17 from two, 16 points on 23 possessions, 2 turnovers, three offensive boards, one defensive rebound, one assist, and one foul, that an early hook-and-hold.

Loosed from Garza’s gravity, Michigan’s wings and guards were free to drive Iowa’s more-than-complementary shooters away from their favorite perches. Isaiah Livers, Chaundee Brown, and Mike Smith were particularly relentless, forcing Joe Wieskamp, CJ Fredrick, and Jordan Bohannon respectively into drives and spot-up attempts over a sea of arms. Wagner was just as much a freak on this side of the court, notably recovering off a defensive breakdown to bat an attempted entry pass to Garza out of bounds earlier in the game.

About the only thing that didn’t go right for Michigan was offense from the bench after Davis. Terrence Williams got five first-half minutes at the four, but found little to show for it. Iowa immediately identified the freshman, who came in shooting 1/10 from three, as a guy you can leave alone. Williams got two very clean shots off doubles on the post, but missed them both. He also flubbed a switch on the other end that led to Luka Garza’s lone three in the frame.

Brandon Johns, who’s been playing most of his minutes at the four lately, was used to spell Dickinson and Davis at the five. Losing a few rounds to Garza when you’re normally not a center was understandable. Reacting a beat too late to several gorgeous opportunities set up by Eli Brooks was less so. Johns at least got his moment of redemption, getting a rattlesome jumper over Garza to go before the under-8 timeout. That friendly bounce stretched the lead to 62-46, and send Dick Vitale into a rendition of Hail to the Victors, a horrific sonic assault surpassed only when he following it with the Notre Dame victory march. Never have so many so welcomed a TV timeout.

Dickinson came back from his third bench banishment for the assist portion of Franz Hour, and tallied one his own, skip-passing out of a double to an open Chaundee Brown to turn his friends’ big lead into a laughable one. The final dagger—a 2020-21 Michigan Special—was a Livers-Smith-to-Livers reverse three with Hunter Dickinson drawing extra attention in the post. That pushed the lead to 73-54, got Livers his fourth made triple in five attempts, and Smith his fourth assist on the night to match Wagner.

Iowa—offensive juggernaut Iowa—also finished with just four assists.

Indiana’s next.

[Box score and more of Marc-Gregor’s work after THE JUMP]