franz wagner

On November 16, 2021, the University of Michigan gave a five-year extension to Men's Basketball Head Coach Juwan Howard, something your author called "a no brainer". At the time, Michigan was #4 in the country, 2-0 on the young season after knocking off Buffalo and Prairie View A&M. To that point, Howard's record as Michigan's head coach was 44-17, coming off a Big Ten regular title and an Elite Eight appearance. The team he was coaching was hyped, with sky high expectations following 2020-21's roaring success and adding a recruiting class that public scouting services loved. It all made sense. After all, Michigan Men's Basketball had established itself as a giant of the B1G over the preceding decade, winning three regular season titles and two conference tournament titles, making the Sweet 16 six times, the Elite Eight four times, and the Final Four twice. 

That night, after the extension was announced, Michigan played host to a so-so Seton Hall team that would make the NCAAs as an eight seed. They lost that game, the first sign that the 2021-22 team was perhaps not going to be what the expectations have conveyed. In hindsight, it was the beginning of a larger slide into despair for the Michigan program. Beginning with that game, the men's basketball team is 43-47 in their past 90 games, leading up to the present. They slipped into the NCAA Tournament as an 11 seed, then missed the tournament the following season, culminating in this year, when Michigan is 8-16 and has a chance to be the first Michigan team to win only single digit games in four decades.

How did it all collapse so quickly? Today we will look back through the journey and perhaps glean some overarching lessons on where and how it all went wrong: 

[AFTER THE JUMP: How it all went wrong]

Name and image is here. The floodgates have opened and now Jordan Bohannon can help sell fireworks. Lo, it is a new era. A couple of Michigan players have signed on with a company that will pair you with athletes so you can play games with them, and Adrien Nunez—who has 1.6 million TikTok followers—launched some merch. Social media!

…as Nuñez received cupping therapy in a training room, he pulled out his phone and filmed his legs. “People on TikTok go viral for literally the dumbest reasons possible,” a voice says in the published clip, which has since been played 116,000 times.

There was a brief Michigan-related kerfuffle when human-type object Darren Rovell tweeted out that Michigan's policy is that athletes have to file their deals with the AD a week before they're actually signed, causing 1) a bunch of people saying that's bad and dumb and 2) an even larger number of people pointing out that Michigan is aligning their policy with state law:

Hi Darren,
That provision exists because of what's currently in the state's NIL statue. That bill doesn't go into effect until 2022 and, in the interim, we recognize this is a fluid landscape & will work collaboratively w/ our students & to their benefit #GoBlue #NIL

— Kurt Svoboda (@ksvoboda) July 1, 2021

It's possible the state will revisit the NIL bill they passed if that actually turns out to be a problem.

Note that the version of NIL that passed is the most permissive, and opens virtually all the doors:

the Council rejected another proposal that — while largely similar — also included the proviso that schools’ NIL policies not allow payments from “any booster, or any person or entity acting on behalf” of the school.

This indicates that the Council was concerned that virtually any restriction in a temporary policy would draw a legal challenge based on the Supreme Court’s ruling last week in the Alston antitrust case.

So the doors are all the way open. Guy Who Sells Cars can give people loaners above-board now. Handshakes are probably going to continue but their relative importance will plummet. 

[After THE JUMP: 420 games!]

A series looking at Michigan's 2021-22 basketball outlook. Previously: center, power forward.

ROSTER

Caleb Houstan (Fr.): top-ten recruit stands 6'8" and knocked down more than half his threes as a junior. That'll do. Well rounded game but not likely to generate many shots himself; can attack closeouts. Power mushroom Zak Irvin.

Isaiah Barnes (Fr.): Bouncy sniper seems underrated by recruiting sites since he's 6'6", shot 45% from three as a junior, and plays above the rim. No doubt some rough edges to smooth out, but should be ready for 10 MPG maybe?

Jace Howard (So.): Coach's son got some Kenpom time last year, caused mom to tweet explosively whenever he got a bucket. Recruiting rankings (#390 on composite) suggest that if he's going to emerge as a contributor it might not be this year. Has requisite size, though.

I HAVE SOME QUESTIONS

Is the youth here a concern?

Probably not. It is going to be young. This spot is going to be the least experienced by some distance, and it doesn't seem like there are potential reinforcements from either the guards (maaaybe Zeb Jackson could chip in?) or the fours (no viable candidates to play down, IMO). But since the rest of the lineup goes senior, senior, senior, sophomore and both candidates for major playing time should thrive in roles where they absorb shots and don't have to create them, it'll be fine.

It might be a different story if Michigan hadn't picked up Devante' Jones and there were more questions about whether they'd be able to generate shots from the pick and roll, but between Jones, Collins, and Hunter Dickinson there should be enough folks with gravity on the court to suffer a corner gunner or two. Houstan in particular is a guy who cannot be given a sliver of space. Matt D:

…one of the premier perimeter shotmakers in America. He’s at his best as a catch and shoot threat coming off screens or from a stationary position on the wing/corners. His mechanics are remarkably consistent, with a high release point, good arch and nice rotation. The sheer volume of his makes that don’t touch the rim is almost unbelievable. While Caleb has more of a set-shot, his combination of size/length will make that largely irrelevant at the college level, where closeouts aren’t likely to bother his shot. He also excels at relocating to give his guard optimal passing windows that maximize spacing.

That junior number on threes is an eyepopping 53%. While surrounded by Cade Cunningham and various other five-stars, yeah, but that's good in an empty gym. When Dickinson's gravity results in Michigan passing it around the horn, a Houstan triple is going to be one of the best shots in the Big Ten.

[After THE JUMP: Houstan's mature game, and a bouncy freshman sniper]