December 4th, 2018 at 11:11 AM ^

I'm pretty sure that BPI still has preseason expectations as a pretty big component of its calculations, and Michigan was much lower in those expectations (I think NW was much higher there also).  On their Strength of Record metric, Michigan is #2 and NW is #85, one spot below Providence.  I know that people like Nate Silver have strongly defended using preseason expectations for predictive purposes early in the season, but it still seems a little silly to emphasize those expectations so strongly and somewhat ignore the absolute beatings that Michigan has been laying on good teams.  Meanwhile there are four ACC teams ranked ahead of Kansas in BPI, including 2-loss UNC at #2, ahead of Duke.

Leaders And Best

December 3rd, 2018 at 11:33 PM ^

Been discussed before but that is using their BPI formula which currently has Michigan ranked #12 and NW #31. It's a predictive formula that is hard to explain and does not look similar to KenPom or T-Rank. It uses preseason projections in their rankings similar to FPI, but KenPom and T-Rank still have some preseason ranking baked in this early in the season and does not look like that.


December 4th, 2018 at 11:12 AM ^

I could be wrong, but I'm pretty sure KenPom uses previous season data and recruiting information, which is effectively what preseason rankings are, at least this early in the season where there isn't nearly enough data to accurately compute a predictive ranking. Sure, sometimes a team returns a ton of previous season productivity and then proceeds to look bad (Wisconsin football this year is a prime example), but by and large a good team who returns most of their best players projects to be good and usually is.

Now as to what BPI is using, I have no idea, because their rankings are all sorts of wonky looking compared to everyone else. Preseason computer-based rankings do have some merit when used appropriately, but my guess is BPI is massively overvaluing its projections coming into the season when compared to KenPom or T-Rank.


December 3rd, 2018 at 11:45 PM ^

This has been talked about a little on the board, but BPI had pretty headscratching rankings heading into this season. IIRC, Michigan ranked in the bottom half of the B1G. I assume the preseason rankings are still baked into the numbers and I’m not really sure what BPI uses to determine home court advantage. 

It’s a confusing stat that ESPN doesn’t really do a great job of explaining. As opposed to other predictive rankings like Kenpom and Torvik (preferred by this site), which are tempo-free opponent adjusted points per possession metrics. Torvik is especially nice, because the site is entirely free while Kenpom you have to pay for. Worth checking out for anyone interested in advanced sports stats. 

Ty Butterfield

December 3rd, 2018 at 11:45 PM ^

Didn’t Michigan lose at Northwestern last season? Conference road games are tough. Michigan is certainly due for a let down. Not saying it will happen but it wouldn’t surprise me if Michigan dropped a close game to Northwestern.


December 3rd, 2018 at 11:59 PM ^

Without a Zion we don't stand a chance and ESPN knows this

Vic law is an experienced senior forward having a great year so far and Pardon is a beast nearly averaging a double double. Were going to need good defense from our wings. If teske gets in foul trouble then we could be in trouble as Pardon would have a strong advantage over Davis

Michigan has lost 3 straight @ Northwestern. Maybe that factors in. Northwestern was also our last loss in 2017-18 before our tourney run. Obviously its still silly to favor Northwestern

Since its @ Evanston I think this will be our closest game yet. Should still win by 10-ish



December 4th, 2018 at 12:07 AM ^

Wooo,  is the first ever anti-espn thread we’ve ever had in mgoblog history ?   Also,  has anyone dared to be edgy and say how they “only watch espn for live games and haven’t watched anything else on that network in years “ ?!?!?!


December 4th, 2018 at 5:37 AM ^

Hard to win on the road in the big 10, plus we have struggled there. Last week ESPN had Northwestern at about 70%. I'm not worried about it, just win the game.