ESPN is just BS
Unless I’m missing something, ESPN is giving NW 53% chance of winning tomorrow’s game.
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/game?gameId=401082453
December 3rd, 2018 at 11:19 PM ^
Do we care what ESPN thinks?
December 4th, 2018 at 7:02 AM ^
I know for a fact that *WE* couldn’t care less. They told me this morning....
December 4th, 2018 at 10:16 AM ^
The answer is obviously :YES"
This board cares what EVERYONE thinks because it gets posted here and there are usually multiple replies about how much everyone does not care.
So, yes, you do care.
December 3rd, 2018 at 11:25 PM ^
ESPN should stick to what they know......SEC cockgobbling.
December 4th, 2018 at 9:39 AM ^
+1 solely for the use of "cockgobbling."
December 3rd, 2018 at 11:27 PM ^
Aww really? Now we'll never win the game.
December 4th, 2018 at 7:39 AM ^
DAMNIT, I guess were back to being a just a football school.
December 4th, 2018 at 9:34 AM ^
Softball, swimming, volleyball, and gymnastics say Hello!
December 4th, 2018 at 7:45 AM ^
It must be that massive home court advantage NU enjoys due to its enormous fan base.
December 3rd, 2018 at 11:33 PM ^
That's based on BPI, which has Michigan 12th and NW 31st. I'm guessing NW's homecourt advatage tilts the numbers in it's favor.
IIRC, BPI has never liked Michigan as much as the other fancystats do.
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bpi/_/season/2019/view/overview
December 4th, 2018 at 11:11 AM ^
I'm pretty sure that BPI still has preseason expectations as a pretty big component of its calculations, and Michigan was much lower in those expectations (I think NW was much higher there also). On their Strength of Record metric, Michigan is #2 and NW is #85, one spot below Providence. I know that people like Nate Silver have strongly defended using preseason expectations for predictive purposes early in the season, but it still seems a little silly to emphasize those expectations so strongly and somewhat ignore the absolute beatings that Michigan has been laying on good teams. Meanwhile there are four ACC teams ranked ahead of Kansas in BPI, including 2-loss UNC at #2, ahead of Duke.
December 3rd, 2018 at 11:33 PM ^
Been discussed before but that is using their BPI formula which currently has Michigan ranked #12 and NW #31. It's a predictive formula that is hard to explain and does not look similar to KenPom or T-Rank. It uses preseason projections in their rankings similar to FPI, but KenPom and T-Rank still have some preseason ranking baked in this early in the season and does not look like that.
December 4th, 2018 at 9:57 AM ^
Preseason rankings should never be used for ANYTHING ANYTIME. That alone renders those formulas useless
December 4th, 2018 at 11:12 AM ^
I could be wrong, but I'm pretty sure KenPom uses previous season data and recruiting information, which is effectively what preseason rankings are, at least this early in the season where there isn't nearly enough data to accurately compute a predictive ranking. Sure, sometimes a team returns a ton of previous season productivity and then proceeds to look bad (Wisconsin football this year is a prime example), but by and large a good team who returns most of their best players projects to be good and usually is.
Now as to what BPI is using, I have no idea, because their rankings are all sorts of wonky looking compared to everyone else. Preseason computer-based rankings do have some merit when used appropriately, but my guess is BPI is massively overvaluing its projections coming into the season when compared to KenPom or T-Rank.
December 3rd, 2018 at 11:37 PM ^
Big10 road games are tough. They've given us trouble there in the past. I don't think that's a horrible number. They just played IU tough.
December 3rd, 2018 at 11:45 PM ^
I give them a 53% chance of finishing within 20 points of us.
December 3rd, 2018 at 11:45 PM ^
This has been talked about a little on the board, but BPI had pretty headscratching rankings heading into this season. IIRC, Michigan ranked in the bottom half of the B1G. I assume the preseason rankings are still baked into the numbers and I’m not really sure what BPI uses to determine home court advantage.
It’s a confusing stat that ESPN doesn’t really do a great job of explaining. As opposed to other predictive rankings like Kenpom and Torvik (preferred by this site), which are tempo-free opponent adjusted points per possession metrics. Torvik is especially nice, because the site is entirely free while Kenpom you have to pay for. Worth checking out for anyone interested in advanced sports stats.
December 3rd, 2018 at 11:45 PM ^
Didn’t Michigan lose at Northwestern last season? Conference road games are tough. Michigan is certainly due for a let down. Not saying it will happen but it wouldn’t surprise me if Michigan dropped a close game to Northwestern.
December 3rd, 2018 at 11:57 PM ^
This calls for the old lady in the mumu saying, "wat?" meme
December 4th, 2018 at 5:52 AM ^
Personally, I give us one chance in three.
December 4th, 2018 at 6:37 AM ^
+1 for the Hunt For Red October reference.
December 4th, 2018 at 7:44 AM ^
More tea, anyone? No? Well, then, you may report back to your post.
December 3rd, 2018 at 11:59 PM ^
Without a Zion we don't stand a chance and ESPN knows this
Vic law is an experienced senior forward having a great year so far and Pardon is a beast nearly averaging a double double. Were going to need good defense from our wings. If teske gets in foul trouble then we could be in trouble as Pardon would have a strong advantage over Davis
Michigan has lost 3 straight @ Northwestern. Maybe that factors in. Northwestern was also our last loss in 2017-18 before our tourney run. Obviously its still silly to favor Northwestern
Since its @ Evanston I think this will be our closest game yet. Should still win by 10-ish
December 4th, 2018 at 12:03 AM ^
UM is a 6.5pt Vegas favorite fwiw
December 4th, 2018 at 8:45 AM ^
...and maybe that's includes a 6.5% chance of Northwestern scoring 65 or more points???
December 4th, 2018 at 12:07 AM ^
Wooo, is the first ever anti-espn thread we’ve ever had in mgoblog history ? Also, has anyone dared to be edgy and say how they “only watch espn for live games and haven’t watched anything else on that network in years “ ?!?!?!
December 4th, 2018 at 6:28 AM ^
I only watch espn for live games and haven’t watched anything else on that network in years
December 4th, 2018 at 7:33 AM ^
Same for me.
December 4th, 2018 at 9:36 AM ^
I only tune in for the start of Sportscenter to hear the music. I blindfold myself so I don't see the picture. Also, I refuse to say any words with E, S, P, or N in them. It's challenging, but is the best way I know to express my contempt for the network.
December 4th, 2018 at 11:47 AM ^
I have ESP, I just don't have ESPN. Unless you count pirated streams coming from Europe and China.
December 4th, 2018 at 12:41 AM ^
Evidence suggests BPI probably sucks.
December 4th, 2018 at 1:19 AM ^
ESPN sucks at financial metrics too.
December 4th, 2018 at 1:30 AM ^
We haven't won a game by less than 17 points and yet we're 5-3 against the spread. Kind of weird.
December 4th, 2018 at 2:06 AM ^
And what does KenPom say? That’s the only thing that matters really.
December 4th, 2018 at 7:45 AM ^
Kenpom has 31% chance of loss. Significantly lower but this isn't a 97% win or anything. Road games against solid teams are tough.
December 4th, 2018 at 4:44 AM ^
Let me tell you something meaningful about ESPN............
December 4th, 2018 at 4:44 AM ^
Let me tell you something meaningful about ESPN............
December 4th, 2018 at 6:11 AM ^
Still waiting . . .
December 4th, 2018 at 7:37 AM ^
And you will at that.
December 4th, 2018 at 5:37 AM ^
Hard to win on the road in the big 10, plus we have struggled there. Last week ESPN had Northwestern at about 70%. I'm not worried about it, just win the game.
December 4th, 2018 at 6:13 AM ^
Man people get mad about some really trivial things.
December 4th, 2018 at 6:26 AM ^
How dare you
December 4th, 2018 at 7:30 AM ^
How dare I? How dare YOU.
December 4th, 2018 at 7:33 AM ^
I can’t compete with that
December 4th, 2018 at 11:48 AM ^
I triple dog dare you to try.
December 4th, 2018 at 6:32 AM ^
Because that warranted a thread.