Michigan leads the country in pressure rate [Patrick Barron]

Unverified Voracity Is Back On The Potatoes Comment Count

Brian November 19th, 2019 at 12:19 PM

Sponsor Note. If you're in need of a lawyer to incorporate your business, Richard Hoeg is your guy. If you're looking to plant potatoes one day and eat potato salad the next, well, that's going to be a taller order but I think you could probably go to the store.

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Sending a lawyer to the store would not be an efficient use of time and money. Sending Richard Hoeg to draw up contracts for you, though? Yeah. That would be an efficient use of time and money.

Queeg time. Mark Dantonio won't be retiring:

All your jokes about completing the circle have already been made in the replies to that tweet.

Potato alert. Potato? Potato.

[After THE JUMP: Don Brown gets after it]

Also in Harbaugh. Want to see a guy's life flash before his eyes?

Getting after it. This is a pretty remarkable number given Michigan's lack of an every-down annihilator on the edge:

Uche does have a lot to do with that…

…but also Michigan is getting all three of their DEs chipping in and getting a lot of productive blitzes from Glasgow/McGrone/Hudson. Even more remarkable is that Michigan is probably sending fewer guys at the QB this year than they did the last couple years. Brown has repeatedly mentioned "simulated blitzes" in his press conferences where Michigan ends up rushing four but sends one or two guys from unexpected spots.

This grade has gone up. PFF broke down their QB grading for their top 25 teams before last week. Patterson:

9. MICHIGAN – SHEA PATTERSON

70.1 overall grade
74.3 passing grade
67.0% adjusted completion percentage

Patterson has taken a step back in 2019, with his current overall and passing grade being lower than his sophomore season at Ole Miss. One area, though, where he has not struggled is in the deep passing game. On throws over 20 yards, Patterson has a 90.6 grade, nine big-time throws and only one turnover-worthy play.

Patterson's grade was 20th amongst the 25 QBs listed and as they noted a pretty major regression from not only last year but a pretty bad situation at post-Freeze Ole Miss. Hopefully we get this most recent version of Patterson in the last two games, but it's hard to predict that the positive blip is the new trend. Fingers crossed.

Icing ball screens, and dropping on pick and rolls. Following the success Texas Tech had forcing everything baseline last year a lot of programs have gone to icing ball screens early this year—a tactic you may remember from the Aaron Craft-Trey Burke wars. Michigan is tentatively one of these teams, and is absolutely going to see a ton of it on offense, so if you've got ten minutes there's no better way to learn about the tactic than this Hoop Vision video:

Icing ball screens was fairly common in Michigan's open practice but hasn't been a frequent tactic in the actual games yet. Currently they're trying to chase over the screens as the big utilizes drop coverage. Michigan's ice coverage may not be ready for prime time, or it's possible they're just trying to get their base approach down before expanding their options.

Meanwhile Orion Sang on drop coverage:

The basics of drop coverage are this: The big guarding the screener will drop back toward the paint, putting himself in between the basket and the ball-handler, while the on-ball defender will fight over the screen and try to harass the ball-handler. There's a cushion, and that's part of the goal — the defense wants to force the ball-handler to take a tough 2-pointer, whether that's a pull-up jumper, floater or contested drive at the big man who dropped back.

“That’s definitely (the goal) when you’re in a drop coverage," said forward Isaiah Livers. "Like Wisconsin, when we play Wisconsin, they’re huge on drop coverage. So it’s a big game for guards to come off the ball screen and shoot the floater, or shoot the tough shots. Some coaches will really live with a tough 2, or some will just not live with it. It’s how Coach Howard or how any other coach goes about it. It’s based off their philosophy, really.”

Michigan's executed their drop coverage with only middling consistency so far but the overall style already pokes out on Bart Torvik dot com, which has split "close twos"—those that come within the restricted circle—from "farther twos." Michigan is 10th at forcing farther twos, which have been 42% of opponent attempts. They've gone down just 31% of the time despite those frustrating sequences where the one guy on the opposition team knocks a few down in short order.

Combine that with Michigan maintaining their three-ball denial from last year—they're third in preventing threes from going up—and you have a pretty good foundation for a top-end defense. Michigan just needs to get a little more precise with their drop coverages and either push stuff further away from the rim or contest better at it.

They're killing the in-game experience. Jack Swarbrick on Notre Dame's sellout streak ending, and how this had been coming for a long time but they were able to paper it over:

Swarbrick acknowledged the streak could have snapped at several different points over the past few years, and that the university got creative in extending it.

By creative, there were some deep, eleventh-hour discounts.

“Group sales were a big part of keeping the streak going, too,” he said. “We’d go to somebody who was ‘a friend of Notre Dame’ and say, ‘Gee, can you help us with this game? Can you buy 50 tickets and distribute them to your employees?’ That would be an example.”

It's weird that ND wanted the Michigan game in South Bend early in the year, when they can get all manner of teams to come to South Bend, and had the mid-year game in Ann Arbor.

The Rock! Slippery Rock is a one-seed in the D-II playoffs:

The D-II playoff bracket is heavily regionalized so Slippery Rock has already played and narrowly beaten Kutztown State and the incredibly named Indiana University (Pennsylvania). They need to win two games to get to an ESPN3-televised semifinal.

Hockey is very bad. They were just swept by Michigan State, which is pretty much it for this year. Their top scorer is freshman Johnny Beecher, with six points. They have virtually no forward skill outside of him and occasional flashes from Will Lockwood—who doesn't seem at all like the threat he was earlier in his career—and Garrett Van Whye.

This was always going to be the talent nadir before a full-on Mel-era recruiting class hit campus. I did not expect it to be nearly this bad. I'm still on board with Pearson because he's lined up a metric ton of talent over the next three years, but I have to admit some concerns that it doesn't seem like anyone on the roster got better this year except Strauss Mann.

As is the time-tested remedy for depression about the present… how about that future?

Hockey NLI time. This isn't definitive—Michigan has deferred and/or lost guys who signed LOIs before—but hockey's signing period is at least a hint about who's coming in next year. So far:

In sports other than basketball or hockey there's no deadline after the signing period opens so I wouldn't read a ton into anyone who hasn't announced they've signed yet. Often teams will announce their signings in one big batch. The USHL's Chicago Steel, currently the home of Owen Power and Brendan Brisson, hasn't done this yet. It is somewhat newsworthy that Johnson is going to spend his draft year at Michigan and Lapointe appears to be definitely coming in.

In other hockey recruiting news, the Athletic's Corey Pronman also has a very early 2021 draft ranking featuring three Wolverines. This time Luke Hughes is at #2, Kent Johnson is #7, and Owen Power is #10. This guy on twitter who writes for Dobber Prospects has Hughes #3, Johnson #15, Power #17, and 2021 recruit Dylan Duke #29. Brisson's early USHL play has him rising up draft boards as well, with Hockey Prospect Dot Com having him as a second or third rounder. Bordeleau is already regarded as a second-rounder and currently leads the U18s in scoring.

Just hold on, folks, the team is going to be way more interesting next year.

Etc.: The NBA regular season needs more stakes. The MSU game is past but if you want to see a murder, this year's "dueling" columns is more like The Rock versus Some Guy Named Barry. Brendan Quinn on Phil Martelli.

Comments

1145SoFo

November 19th, 2019 at 12:38 PM ^

Potato alert?

 

...the stars are finally aligning:

1) We know that Ohio is Potato.

2) The potato must first be planted: means we will bury Potato this year.

3) In the next few years the potatoes will be harvested and chopped into potato salad. Translation: OSU's downfall begins after we plant the potato.

QED

stephenrjking

November 19th, 2019 at 12:58 PM ^

Indeed. Unlikely, though; Slippery Rock's region is likely the weakest. Ferris has a tough test against either Ouachita or perennial powerhouse NWMSU, while whomever emerges from the bloodbath that is Tarleton vs Minnesota State (could be the two best teams in the country!) will likely roll to the title game. 

If Slippery Rock makes it out of its region, they'll probably get trucked in a semifinal. Hopeful for a good showing for them, though. 

befuggled

November 19th, 2019 at 1:15 PM ^

If something particularly damning comes out (possibly at his deposition--I didn't miss that, did I?) I think even this AD will be forced to fire him.

Having said that, I don't see it happening. Like everybody else, though, I strongly suspect there's a lot of dirt that *could* come out. But probably won't.

On the positive side, I also don't see the program improving until Dantonio retires.

JMK

November 19th, 2019 at 1:50 PM ^

Right. For example, if it comes out that MSU’s arch-enemy Michigan helped Dantonio get the job or that Dantonio withheld important game information from Notre Dame unless Notre Dame agreed to file fake reports of Michigan recruiting violations with the NCAA, then the wingnut Spartans will definitely turn on Dantonio. Because wingnut Spartans are rational actors whose support for a terrible person will be swayed by treasonous behavior. 

ERdocLSA2004

November 19th, 2019 at 5:46 PM ^

Let’s be realistic, the program can certainly get better even if he stays.  However, they will never return to the glory days of Dantonios prime.  Those years were an illusion.  They can return to a middling big ten team with 3-4 losses every year.  Let’s not forget, Dantonio set the bar there, he has achieved more there than anyone else.  Their glory days are over whether he stays or not, but I think you’re wrong if you say they will never have a better season than the current one if he stays.  Unless you are talking about character quality, that’s a whole different discussion.

lhglrkwg

November 19th, 2019 at 12:46 PM ^

I still believe in Mel...but it sucks that we suuuuck when the Frozen Four is in Buffalo-Detroit-Pittsburgh in 3 consecutive years and we might not even make the tourney in any of them, much less the very-driveable Frozen Fours

joedafan

November 19th, 2019 at 12:49 PM ^

Don’t encourage The Daily. The dueling columns used to be about the real football game. Then we started losing and The Daily got tired of defending Hoke and started focusing on their touch football games and journalism awards.

They should just send each other emails and not bother to publish these columns.

That said, the State News’ jealously of The Daily was as hilariously little brother as it gets.

Teeba

November 19th, 2019 at 12:56 PM ^

I feel like Owen Power should be referred to as, "OWEN POWER." If he's not the hockey equivalent of BEN MASON, I will be a little sad.

Four years of Power Play puns would be glorious.

UgLi Eric

November 19th, 2019 at 2:12 PM ^

All jokes aside, Rutgers might not even be an automatic win next year for MSU.

@BYU, home for Miami (ytm) and Toledo with crossovers games at Kinnick and hosting Minnesota and Northwestern.

A 3-9 season might actually be the mean prediction (although 4-8 seems more realistic, with Rutgers, Maryland, Toledo and NW likely wins).

I wouldn't bet on them winning a fifth game though. 

Crime Reporter

November 19th, 2019 at 1:06 PM ^

Haha the redhead manager.

I told a coworker it reminded me of Darth Vader walking around the Death Star and all the imperial officers are telling Empire jokes until one of them spots the Sith Lord.

BlueHills

November 19th, 2019 at 1:32 PM ^

We’re getting closer to that potato salad every game since PSU 2nd half. Can’t wait to see what happens against Indiana.

Hoping for more of what we saw in the last few games.

dragonchild

November 19th, 2019 at 1:46 PM ^

"Complete the circle, that's what I'm trying to do."

To be fair, the last guy I heard saying "the circle is complete" didn't retire.  He got his ass kicked by his own son, saw the light, threw his boss into a pit, then died shortly after.

massblue

November 19th, 2019 at 2:38 PM ^

Patterson's grade was 20th amongst the 25 QBs listed and as they noted a pretty major regression from not only last year but a pretty bad situation at post-Freeze Ole Miss.

The question is why has he regressed? Not suited for UM style, changes in OC, etc?

username03

November 19th, 2019 at 3:00 PM ^

At least through their actions, the staff continually told him we don't trust you, just don't fuck up, and let the defense win the game and it affected his confidence. He has always been at his best when they let him throw the ball around a bit, most notably last Saturday. It's not his fault we're in an era where winning high level games with only your defense is almost impossible.

justthinking

November 19th, 2019 at 4:26 PM ^

Considering he was one of the best pull and run QBs last year, the only explanation would be that he was more severely dinged up from the very first play of this year than anyone let on.

I think it definitely effected his pull and run game, and would obviously effect his passing game as well. Still isn’t all that accurate today and probably could have thrown for 450+ last weekend instead of 385. Protect the ball and QB was holding the speed in space offense back for the first half of the year.

Nice to see he has his confidence back though. Going to need it the next two weeks. 

username03

November 19th, 2019 at 2:50 PM ^

"It's weird that ND wanted the Michigan game in South Bend early in the year, when they can get all manner of teams to come to South Bend, and had the mid-year game in Ann Arbor."

Why do the smart thing when you can prove 'you're the man' instead?

schizontastic

November 19th, 2019 at 3:19 PM ^

As I get older, half of my enjoyment of football is seeing the psychology of the coaches--how they manage and the Greek tragedy like fatal flaws. 

Mark D. is proving again how these folks are wired differently; and to be fair, early 60's is pretty young to retire these days; and he probably is concerned that as soon as he leaves, he loses a lot of leverage over MSU and could himself be thrown under various buses (without a helmet on). 

Bando Calrissian

November 19th, 2019 at 7:19 PM ^

I was getting bombarded with emails and social media ads for weeks offering Notre Dame football tickets for what felt like pennies on the dollar (buy tickets to one hockey game like 10 years ago, and they'll keep you on the spam list), and it didn't make sense to me at all. What, a 75,000 seat stadium with one of the most blue-blood fanbases around, and they couldn't sell out? 

Amazing.