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Essentials

WHAT	Michigan vs Colorado State	Who is this and why does he keep flirting with me?
WHERE	Michigan Stadium Ann Arbor, MI
WHEN	Noon Eastern
THE LINE	M –27.5
TELEVISION	ABC (Mark Jones, Robert Griffin III, Quint Kessenich)
TICKETS	from $51
WEATHER	86° Partly Cloudy

Overview

Last year the Nevada Wolf Pack went 8-5 and finished third in the Mountain West's West division, which was about standard in their five seasons under Jay Norvell and Matt (son of Air Raid pioneer Hal) Mumme. Also as usual, their defense got thrashed by every offense with a pulse. The last was in a 52-24 loss to Western Michigan in the Motor City Bowl. Following the loss in Detroit, Norvell and the Wolf Pack relocated to Fort Collins, Colorado, changed their colors to green and gold, and renamed their franchise the Rams.

This is a new experiment in college athletics, made possible by the free one-time transfer rule and effectually zero control on tampering. Among the treasures Norvell smuggled out of Reno are most of his coaching staff and eleven players, including 40% of the offensive line, two decent starters at WR, a cornerback they're moving to safety, the special teams units, and the quarterback they were grooming to replace Carson Strong (UDFA, Eagles).

Click here or on the graphic for full-size. PDF here.

Transplant host Colorado State was happy to incorporate any and all of Nevada's vital organs after the two-year tenure of Steve Addazio, recommended by former CSU WR coach Urban Meyer, produced two major scandals to three Mountain West victories, and left the program gutted. Several returning starters were shunted aside for transfers, and the guy I thought was going to be the star of their defense got benched in fall camp for a RS freshman walk-on.

Once the procedure takes, CSU should recover nicely over the course of the season to a program level somewhere in the vicinity of where Mike Bobo had them when Bama was sending him spare Dee Hart. Norvell ran a solid program in Reno, and system-based offenses tend to thrive in the Group of Five, where the natural answers (IE better players) are difficult to come by. I doubt they can have it up and running by Week 1 in the Big House, however. While it's safe to say the Rams will represent Michigan's toughest test of the nonconference season, that's mostly just an indictment on Hawai'i and UConn.

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Run Offense vs CSU

Little sod could be trouuuuble. [CSU Athletics]

If any edifice still left standing from the devastation wrought by listening to Urban was worth incorporating into the new city it was the middle of the defense. NT Devin Phillips is back to start for a fifth time, and his last two seasons were very good bordering on excellent. He's not very large, listed at 6'1"/305 last year and down to 290 on this year's roster. Though not much of a threat to penetrate the backfield, Phillips can get low and forklift a dude. All that experience also translates to a good sense of where his blocks are coming from. He gave Iowa's not-good guards the business and held up well against Tyler Linderbaum, the best center in the country:

#94 just below the hash

The linked plays were still gashes because they didn't have a second functional DT. That issue appears to have carried over to this season, where one of five options (keep that link open so you don't run out of free clicks) that all sound bad will only very technically start. Edge Mohamed Kamara is an experienced former starter, and transfer CJ Onyechi spent years plunging into interior gaps for Rutgers, but both are short, pass-rush types who aren't expected to survive a kickout. Neither will hold a candle to 6'6"/270 Scott Patchen (UDFA, Colts), the former Miami end who was Group-of-Five Aidan Hutchinson after resurrecting his career with the Rams.

Linebacker is the one thing Steve Addazio does well, and both ILBs probably could have transferred up (just sayin'). MLB Dequan Jackson is the trustworthy one. He has been a mainstay of CSU's front since 2019, comfortable in coverage, a decent tackler, and knows which guard to hit. He's on the smaller side, however, and has an unfortunate tendency to star on the highlight reels of the better backs he's faced. For fans in Fort Collins, that's a star. The other spot is :eyes emoji: because I spent all offseason talking up athletic WLB Cam'ron Carter [every snap vs SDSU] only to see him benched for a redshirt freshman *walk-on* this offseason. Carter is a modern LB who was a menace to Iowa and Hawai'i, the two games of theirs I picked through in spring. The walk-on, Drew Kulick, is listed at 6'2"/195. Kulick may be a dude, or maybe Carter needed a message sent.

Hayes/Keegs/Olu/Zinter/Trente/All should have a major size and strength advantage on their counterparts, and plenty of spots to probe for weaknesses if they want to try out their new stretch zone techniques. The Rams' hopes are that Michigan will fall into the same trap they did last year against Rutgers, where the squirrels were allowed to constantly hop into weird gaps and Michigan/McNamara chose not to explore the gaping holes (some downfield, some off the backside) that provided. If Corum and Edwards are allowed into the secondary it's drive over.

KEY MATCHUP: HEAVILY ARMED KNIGHTS vs CORRALLING THE RASCALS. Colorado State's run defense is functional bordering on good, and that plus a tip-ball pick-six had them up 14-7 at the half last year versus Iowa's predictable stretch-and-rollout offense. Michigan's front got more agile in spots but are still built mostly to pound the rock. If they're keeping it vanilla, and McNamara is refusing to keep it or check into pass plays, this part could get grumbly.

Pass Offense vs CSU

YOLO, champ! [Marc-Grégor Campredon]

The CSU secondary was a rickety structure held up by Patchen's pressure and opponent unwillingness to try them downfield. They had a true freshman and a rather confused senior at safety, and three cornerbacks—their best a 5'8" freshman walk-on–who were all remarkably slow for how small they were. The story of last year's defense was the Rams daring opponents to throw it deep until (some) opponents obliged, and the Rams said "very good, apparently you can do that."

As you might imagine, this got a complete overhaul. The second-best CSU defensive player last year to PFF was true freshman safety Jack Howell, but he was another surprise casualty of the new depth charts, placed behind Nevada transfer Angel "AJ" King. King played cornerback and nickel last year for the Wolf Pack, generating eight PBUs, two fumbles, two TFLs, 40 tackles, and a sack. New DC Freddie Banks was the CB coach at Nevada who recruited King before leaving to coach 2021 FCS runners-up Montana State; it is clear they are bros. Banks is a Quarters guy who likes to keep one safety locked to the TE and near the box, putting extra on the coverage of the other guy, in this case King.

The box safety and nickel are largely interchangeable. Last year's SS Tywan Francis was shifted to the nickel (weakside) where his tendency to get lost in deep coverage won't be as much of an issue. Henry Blackburn started the final two games of 2020 as a true freshman and was in an even rotation with the starters, so it's not a big surprise he's ahead of Howell. The two will probably rotate.

Cornerback was addressed with transfers, namely Cal's long-limbed, longtime backup Chigozie Anusiem, and up-transfers Greg Laday, who started the last three games for FCS Northern Colorado (also maize-and-blue, also the Bears) and City College of San Francisco's D'Andre Greeley. Anusiem began 2021 as a starter but was passed by a freshman at midseason and was going to play for Todd Graham at Hawai'i before Graham was fired and CSU jumped in. This is ancillary but something you can point out to friends: he's got a tattoo of a reset button on his left wrist that he presses after every play to get his mind recentered. Greeley, who's much shorter but feistier than the others, was a JUCO picking machine (10 of them) at CCSF last year, and seemed to have the field CB job locked up in spring, then didn't make the depth chart out of fall. I know nothing of the guy who did, Brandon Guzman, except he's a converted receiver. In their nickel formation Laday, who stole the job in fall, will start on the boundary. He runs track but doesn't have as much wiggle as the other two. AJ King is listed as the backup to Anusiem, which means their 4-3 configuration would remove Laday. It also suggests they think this is a problem area.

KEY MATCHUP: QUARTERBACKS vs YOLO. Colorado State's system is going to leave the receivers and tight ends in favorable 1-on-1 matchups with guys who will be tempted to come up on them. Has Cade McNamara learned to take what is given? Will JJ McCarthy target the correct guy? Is Michigan interested in chucking contested catch-me's against a MWC team?

Run Defense vs CSU

Norvell's OC is Matt Mumme. If the last name sounds familiar, you've read about the origins of the Air Raid offense. The simple version is this: unless they want to ignore the run game altogether (don't do that) no defense can cover both sides of every passing threat. Somebody is going to have leverage somewhere. Mouse Davis and his people created the Run 'n Shoot offense by condensing the playbook to a couple of good passing concepts that become infallible passing concepts if the receiver who gets leverage can alter his route based on which side the defense is playing him. Think of it as the option, except for passing (everybody dabbles in this today).

The Air Raid was a condensation of the condensation, coming through the LaVell Edwards "soft" run 'n shoot from BYU, which kept the QB in the pocket and his throw reads nearer at hand. Mumme distilled that down to one play.

The fly routes draw away the cornerbacks and the deep In route should hold the safeties away from down below, where the drag route and the flare should have space unless the defense chose to cover down instead of protecting themselves from the deep stuff. They can switch up which receivers run which routes, and each receiver has various options to run once he's out there in space to draw coverage and find open grass. It's up to the QB to find the grass and put it where a receiver has the better shot at it.

Hal Mumme's son Matt, who is now CSU's OC, explains why it's weird:

“It’s funny. Kids come in and they’re like, ‘coach, when do we get playbooks?’” Matt said from his office. “We’re like, well, we don’t have playbooks. Now, you can come in and we draw stuff up on the board and we’ll show you the concepts and you write it down in your notebook, but most guys can write it down in five sheets of paper.”

I can tell you what's on the other four sheets of paper: Slants, Zone Stretch, Bubble Screen, and Four Verts with optional stops all the way up. Hal Mumme comes off as 1st percentile in human qualities (see his son's anecdote at the link, or see google) but the offense is effective so long as the receivers and QB can pay off the leverage they'll always have. The OL have big wide splits because they're never going to bother doubling and want your pass rushers incapable of getting to the QB before the ball is out.

They will run and not just a draw, though the screen game should be thought of as another run. That running game, like the passing game, runs on getting little guys in space and yards after tackle attempts.

Because of the line's wide splits, Michigan probably can't do what they did with Hutchinson last year, putting him on one side of the formation from the other three.

New CSU center Jacob Gardner had a 43.3 (that is BAD) overall grade as a tackle for Nevada last year. Fellow Wolfpack RG Gray Davis wasn't any good either. LG Dante Bivens lost his starting job at Tulsa after years of being terrible. RT Dontae Keys was recruited out of FIU because his pass blocking was decent and his run-blocking beyond atrocious. LT Brian Crespo-Jaquez, the only non-transfer, is there because he's a local. They are all large and in the way, and at Colorado State because their offense is all about making them as irrelevant as possible.

The power run game is so irrelevant to Colorado State's offense that converted WR A'Jon Vivens and Nevada transfer Avery Morrow are both ahead of last year's decent starter, formerly 240-pound former Boston College thunderback David Bailey, who was asked to drop 20 pounds if he wanted to keep playing in Fort Collins. Short downs are rare because they're always throwing it 10 or 15 yards or taking sacks for as many.

KEY MATCHUP: BACKUP LINEBACKERS vs OH CRAP IT'S A RUN?. Nikhai Hill-Green (hammy?) is questionable this week so we'll get to see how far Junior Colson's processing powers have come along after his first offseason, and who else on the depth chart can play. Dollar says it's Michael Barrett since his whole thing is hanging back high and slamming down when he sees the ball, but we'll probably see a few guys trying out.

Pass Defense vs CSU

Clay Millen hasn't played, but he was almost a 4-star and a good QB's heir apparent. [CSU Athletics]

The most important piece that Norvell absconded with was the QB he was preparing to replace Carson Strong. Clay Millen is one of two sons of former NFL QB Hugh Millen (AKA backup to the stars) that Michigan could potentially face this year (UConn has his brother). This Millen was a top-500 recruit (#38 QB to the composite) whose senior season was wiped out after two games thanks to the pandemic. He played in two games for Nevada last year, and threw two passes.

That he would start at CSU was never in doubt, and all indications from the program are he's about to embark on a 12,000-yard career. At the moment he's a RS freshman starting his first-ever game at Michigan Stadium. To get a baseline, Alan Bowman started against Ole Miss (SP+ 42nd defense) in 2019, throwing 47 passes, completing 29, for 273 yards at 5.6 YPA and a TD. Odds are Millen will not have the best game of his career, even if it's one he will never forget.

He does have some nice targets, including two familiar ones. Though CSU retained some decent WRs, those guys have taken a back seat to Nevada transfers Tory Horton (659 yards, 9.6 YPT, 5 TDs) and slot bug Melquan Stovall (643 yards, 9.3 YPT, 1 TD), who can be a problem:

Stovall may be short but he can catch the ball in traffic, get himself into space, and create a lot of yards once there. He also hurdles fools.

Of last year's CSU starters, WR Ty McCullouch (415 yards, 1 TD) and TE Gary Williams (287 yards, 5 TDs) were both field-stretchers who averaged 14 yards per target. Williams was the backup last year to 2nd round pick Trey McBride (Cardinals), the first tight end taken in the draft, but fell behind TE Tanner Arkin in spring. Arkin is a local redshirt freshman who was somehow the only Ram named to this year's preseason all-MWC team even though he only caught one pass for 9 yards in three games last season. That seems so premature you have to wonder how many voters thought they were picking McBride, but the vibe out of Fort Collins is that Arkin is going to be a dude.

The best way to mess with an Air Raid offense is to out-dude them. Norvell isn't going to run the full Leach Air Raid stuff with all the checks in his first game with a new quarterback. More likely it will be the base offense at a fast pace. That means they won't be getting guys wide open; they're good at getting matchups and at taking advantage of mistakes (including from refs; Norvell is the nearest thing football has to the all-OPI offense). Pressure still works on them, and all defenses run right work as well, since all the QB's looking for is open grass to throw it to.

That said, this should be a fun shaking out for Ravens stuff Michigan started to install last year then put back on the shelf because "Hutchjabo kill" worked too. The weird looks they can give pre-snap can mess with the Millen's ability to get in the right call, and the longer it takes him to find the leverage you left him, the more time the line has to hit home. Pressure up the middle can take away the best Air Raid options. In fact they hate that more than they do edge pressure, since most of the throws are going inside.

KEY MATCHUP: RAVENS SYSTEMS GO vs NO MORE HUTCHINSON/OJABO. The theory for how Michigan can rebuild Hutchinson in the aggregate is to get more pressure from the tackles, more weird looks to disguise blitzes, and more man coverage behind that. Pass rush events from the edges should be taken with a grain of salt, but Air Raids actually hate it more when you get pressure in their face.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Yes, Norvell took that too. Aussie Paddy Turner redshirted in Reno last year while learning American football, and should be ready to Aussie it. Michigan's punt block system against spread punting is best defeated by rolling the punter to one side so I wouldn't expect them to get one this game, nor for Henning to have many opportunities.

Kicker is an OR situation between returning starter Cayden Camper (25/32, long of 53 for CSU in 2021), and Oregon transfer Henry Katleman (4/4, long of 47), who kicked for the Ducks the last four games of 2020 but lost his job last season.

The returners are the two speedsters from Nevada Melquan Stovall, the slippery slot whose highlight reel is embedded above, and the backup RB Avery Morrow. Neither have done it before. AJ King has returned punts, and might be called upon as a safe option if either of the above are letting it roll.

Michigan's special teams was #1 in the nation last year and returns everybody of consequence, including the punter with the ungodly hangtime, the Groza-winning kicker, nation-leading punt blocker Cornelius Johnson, multi-talented upback Michael Barrett, special teams PoY Caden Kolesar, and all of last year's returners, including Ronnie Be…where are you going?

KEY MATCHUP:  AHHHH YOU CONTINUE DOING EVERYTHING THE BEST

INTANGIBLES

CHEAP THRILLS

Worry if…

• Having two OCs means we're back to running into stacked boxes, never reading anything, and getting the playcall in 5 seconds before the snap, which playcall is right out of last year's Rutgers gameplan.
• Tanner Arkin is actually Trey McBride with a mustache.
• Michigan can't get any pass rush.

Cackle with knowing glee if…

• Cornelius Johnson puts a CB on spin cycle and Cade hits him in stride 30 yards downfield.
• Blake Corum gets into the secondary.
• Clay Millen is running for his life.

Fear/Paranoia Level: 1 (Baseline: 5; +1 for facing an Air Raid, +1 for with zero DL who've shown they can pass rush, –1 for freshman QB in his first start, –1 for …is a perfect opportunity to practice your Amoeba, –1 for their OL is a bunch of patched together transfers, –1 for that secondary looks really bad, –1 for Michigan's offense isn't exactly 2021 Iowa in the deep passing game neither, –1 for all the reasons CSU might be good are more relevant for later in the year.

Desperate need to win level: 10 (Baseline: 5; +5 for that'll end your trip real quick.)

Loss will cause me to… Enquire whether Purdue might be interested in relocation.

Win will cause me to… Ask someone in green if that Isaiah Stevens guy came. Uh, no reason.

The strictures and conventions of sportswriting compel me to predict: Colorado State could be decent this year, but at this moment they're a transplant patient barely out of surgery and Michigan is a blood-spattered hellbeast trying to grow a new pair of claws. These are not equal things.

So the question then becomes how willing is Michigan to dumb themselves down to the point an up-tempo MWC school with an Air Raid can get them, and I think the answer is less than usual. The ongoing quarterback competition could hurt them down the road if it's not resolved, but in this context I think it's a boon. Cade wants to light it up. JJ wants to light it up. The coaches want to see what they've got when the ammunition's live. Ungodly receivers are going to be bouncing around on the sideline begging for a turn at the buffet. One of them will be Ronnie Bell. This is hardly a recipe for one of those Lloyd-era MAC games where they just want to practice some run fits on new targets and go home. Are you going to deny Ronnie Bell?

The greater concern is on defense. Michigan's down a starting linebacker when that's the most frightening thing to be down, and also trying to run a new system that's hard on linebackers against a system that's hard on linebackers. CSU will also hit the randomizer hard by chucking it deep. If it's 90 degrees, Gemon Green can't find the ball, and the stripes are in an SMU mood, we could be in for a long and uncomfortable afternoon.

Even there, I have to imagine Colorado State doesn't want the smoke. Michigan's obvious answer if they feel threatened would be to attack Clay Millen with every blitz in the arsenal. If they're within one score, let him deal. If it's three scores in the 3rd quarter, a respectable outcome isn't worth the risk of damaging Nevada's new home before the kitchen sink's installed.

Finally, three opportunities for me to look stupid on Saturday:

• At least five Wolverines throw a pass.
• Roman Wilson is one of them.
• Millen has two interceptions, one off a Mike Morris deflection at the line, that keeps CSU from ever challenging.
• Michigan, 47-12