Hoops Preview: North Carolina 2018
THE ESSENTIALS
WHAT | #7 Michigan (6-0) vs #4 North Carolina (6-1) |
---|---|
WHERE | Crisler Arena Ann Arbor, MI |
WHEN | 9 PM Wednesday |
LINE | Michigan -2 (KenPom) |
TV | ESPN |
THE US
Michigan's Only Revenue Sport™ returns to the court tomorrow in the Big Ten/ACC Challenge, sporting a shiny #1 in Kenpom's defensive efficiency rankings. This kicks off a four-game stretch, including two conference games, that will either firmly establish Michigan as a contender in the league and maybe for a 1-seed or cause the total implosion of the Michigan fanbase. No pressure!
This stretch kicks off with a return game from North Carolina. Last year a frenetic start (20-20 six minutes in) gave way to a Michigan scoring drought and a 14-point halftime deficit Michigan never ate into. Luke Maye put up 27 points as Michigan forced just six turnovers and allowed 57% shooting from two. Michigan gave up 1.23 points per possession, their worst performance of the year outside of that Purdue insanity.
This edition of UNC is insanely fast and Michigan's D is locked in. Should be fun.
THE LINEUP CARD
Projected starters are in bold. Hover over headers for stat explanations. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open. It's a free country.
Pos. | # | Name | Yr. | Ht./Wt. | %Min | %Poss | ORtg | SIBMIHHAT | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
G | 2 | Coby White | Fr. | 6'5, 185 | 57 | 27 | 120 | No | |||||||||||
#25 composite freshman is giant point guard who hit 7/10 threes against Texas. Bad so far inside line. Pull-up three shooter. | |||||||||||||||||||
G | 24 | Kenny Williams | Sr. | 6'4, 191 | 65 | 15 | 110 | No | |||||||||||
Low usage but very efficient (59/40 shooting) last year. Rarely creates own shot, but will convert off cuts a lot. Scuffling early this year. | |||||||||||||||||||
F | 5 | Nassir Little | Fr. | 6'6, 220 | 50 | 23 | 129 | Kinda | |||||||||||
#3 composite freshman is absurd athlete hitting 64% from two and grabbing a ton of OREBs. 95%(!!!) at rim. Iffy shooter. | |||||||||||||||||||
F | 13 | Cameron Johnson | Sr. | 6'9 210 | 64 | 21 | 135 | No | |||||||||||
Grad transferred from Pitt last year and fit in as versatile stretch four. 52/34 from floor, not much of an impact without the ball. | |||||||||||||||||||
C | 32 | Luke Maye | Sr. | 6'8, 240 | 71 | 21 | 119 | No | |||||||||||
Stretch 5 hit 43% on 116 threes last year and is burly enough to be a major factor on the boards. Not a great athlete and just a 50% shooter from two in 2017-18. | |||||||||||||||||||
C | 15 | Garrison Brooks | So. | 6'9, 230 | 45 | 20 | 118 | Yes | |||||||||||
Conventional big is hammering the offensive boards and converting off others' assists. | |||||||||||||||||||
C | 21 | Sterling Manley | So. | 6'11", 235 | 30 | 21 | 96 | Yes | |||||||||||
Extremely typical backup C. | |||||||||||||||||||
F | 1 | Leaky Black | Fr. | 6'7, 185 | 36 | 13 | 120 | No | |||||||||||
#71 composite freshman got ~15 MPG vs Texas and UCLA. Super low usage so far. | |||||||||||||||||||
G | 4 | Seventh Woods | Jr. | 6'2, 185 | 40* | 16 | 117 | Yes | |||||||||||
PG has whopping 43% assist rate and basically never shoots because he's awful at it. 25 TO rate against jabronis. |
*[Woods missed UNC's games against UCLA and Texas but was averaging about 15 MPG in their previous outings. ]
[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]
THE THEM
UNC is coming off a strange, disappointing year by their standards that featured two wins over Duke (and one over Michigan) and a two-seed but also seven conference losses and a second-round exit in the tournament. The Tarheels lost Theo Pinson and Joel Berry off that team but return two seniors—one of whom trashed Michigan in this game last year—and added the usual level of recruit to fill a couple of holes in the starting lineup.
The senior who trashed Michigan, as you no doubt remember, is Luke Maye. Maye is Ethan Happ with three-point range and a supporting cast: a burly, super-skilled, below-the-rim big who the NBA isn't going to be too interested in but dominates in college. He went 10/14 from two against Moe Wagner last year; Wagner responded with 8/10 from two and an ORTG of 142.
When not playing Wagner, Maye pounded the boards on both ends, had an assist rate higher than his TO rate (highly unusual for a big), and hit 43% on 116 threes. What he didn't do is crush people's heads on the interior. He shot 50% from two last year. That's what you're going to get his year, too—dude is already on his ceiling.
Maye's inside-out ability makes him a problem for many defenses but he's not a switch-everything positionless guy, so Jon Teske won't be too difficult to keep on the court. UNC will kick Maye down to the 4 for about half his minutes, bringing on one of a couple Generic Backup Centers at the 5. The goal there will be to bully Isaiah Livers or Iggy Brazdeikis on the block, which didn't go that well for Eric Paschall.
Maye's undersized; the rest of the team is giant. The shortest guy UNC puts on the floor much is 6'4", and aside from the Generic Backup Centers everyone is a threat both inside and out. Cameron Johnson, who you may remember as the prize catch in the Great Pitt Basketball Dispersal Draft, is a 6'9" guy who plays the 3 and 4. He's Not Just A Shooter, with all that term implies. Last year he split his usage about equally from two and three, had meh shooting (52/34), and relied on a rock-bottom turnover rate for his overall offensive efficiency. He's a guy who can create the occasional look for himself but will mostly find those coming in the midrange. He's off to a blazing shooting start, FWIW.
Nassir Little gets most of the rest of UNC's minute in the frontcourt. Little is the top freshman in the country, non-Duke division, and is projected as a top five pick many places. That hasn't stopped Roy Williams from giving him the Jaren Jackson treatment early in the season: Little does not start and gets almost exactly 20 minutes a game.
This might be justified. Little sucks up a ton of oxygen when he's on the court and does little other than shoot. Against Texas and UCLA, Little had ORTGs of 99 and 102 on usage of 25 and 32 percent, respectively. He's absurdly athletic and you can probably chalk up one poster-worthy dunk over Teske, but he's a black hole who puts his head down and tries to get to the rim and he's 5 of 17 from three on the year.
Senior Kenny Williams is also Not Just A Shooter. 56% of his attempts last year came from deep; he hit them at a 41% clip. When he ventures inside the line he's split about evenly between rim attempts and Other Twos. He's legit great at the latter and decent at the former. He's another guy who can attack an unbalanced defense but isn't going to be taking it to the rack to initiate an action. A scanty free throw rate indicates what kind of guy he is inside the line.
Williams has taken on more playmaking responsibilities this year, which has spiked his assist and turnover rates. It may be affecting the quality of his shots from deep, as he's just 5 of 26 so far this year. Williams is a guy who needs an open look; he's not a rise-up or jab-step guy.
Freshman Coby White has been the starting point guard from the jump. He's also a five-star, albeit one who checked towards the tail end of that range at 25th. White is enormous and promising. He's the only UNC player with usage meaningfully above 20%; he's hitting 44% from deep; a third of those are unassisted; he draws a ton of fouls and is an 80%+ shooter at the line. He's not good inside the line and a TO rate nearing 20 is poor for a guard.
White's matchup against Zavier Simpson is going to be fascinating. Simpson's likely to be in his shirt and pawing at the ball; White can clearly rise up over him and may be inclined to try the Brunson down on the block. Preventing him from launching is gong to be a key factor. He was 11/17 in UNC's two real games to date.
Backup and strangely-named person Seventh Woods missed the UCLA and Texas games with a concussion but is cleared to return tomorrow. He's got a giant assist rate that would be top-ten nationally if he had enough minutes to qualify, which is strange because he's hitting 35% from two on about 80 career attempts. It would seem like you should just D him up and never help off of him. Simpson should eat him alive if he does hit the floor. Brandon Robinson also gets backup guard minutes. He's been a horrendous offensive player in his career to date; a few bunnies against Tennessee Tech and their ilk have propped his numbers up this year. Minutes for either of these guys are a gift.
Finally, excellently-named freshman Leaky Black is a low usage spectator thus far in his career.
THE TEMPO-FREE
Hoo, boy. North Carolina has a bizarre tempo profile. They're the second-fastest team in the country on offense. That in itself is unusual. The upper reaches of that stat are dominated by bad teams trying to get shots up because they're hopeless in the halfcourt.
UNC is not that. Even so 41% of their shots come in the first ten seconds of the clock. This is a giant uptick from last year, when UNC was the 14th fastest team in the country with 27% of their shots early. Last year this made sense: UNC had an eFG rate of 55% in transition and was 51% in the half-court. This year that relationship has inverted: UNC is at 53% in transition and 58% in the half-court. They're going so fast that it might be hurting them.
A couple of other notes from their tempo-free profile:
- UNC is bad at preventing threes. 43% of opponent shots come from behind the arc, and while they've survived the barrage this doesn't look like a situation where it's sustainable. Last year's Tarheels were about equally bad at preventing threes… and 316th in opponent 3PT%. Texas and UCLA both hit 46% on a lot of attempts.
- They also don't put many threes up, just 32% of their shots. That's around 300th, and that's despite the fact that they're well above average. This may be an artifact of competition level.
- The tall men crash the offensive boards; UNC is 8th in OREBs.
But really it's the tempo man.
THE KEYS
Get organized fast. Approximately one out of every six UNC shots is a bad, rushed take in a not-really-transition situation, against a large number of bad teams and a UCLA outfit that's more or less uncoached. Michigan's usual level of transition avoidance will be extremely useful. If that transition avoidance results in bad shots instead of half-court possessions all the better.
Rebound as a team. The only starter UNC puts out who won't crash the boards with regularity is the point guard. Lineups with Maye at the 4 will put pressure on whoever is checking him to match his physicality and crafty old man game; Charles Matthews (presumably) will have to be on all-out boxout alert for Little, who's already got ten putbacks on the season despite only playing half the time.
Michigan's doing that thing where everyone boxes out and the point guard goes and gets it again, and that's worked brilliantly so far. Michigan is top 30 in defensive rebounding despite the fact that Zavier Simpson has a higher DREB rate than Jon Teske.
Survive Maye. Michigan's absurd at-the-rim D (45%!!!) will get a test, sort of? Maye killed Wagner last year but he's pretty mediocre inside the arc overall. Trying to bully Iggy and Livers didn't work before and probably won't work now.
Hit open shots. UNC's freshman-and-help-heavy defense gave up a ton of quality threes last year and gave up a ton of quality threes in UNC's most recent games. Michigan is scuffling from three. They were 5 of 17 against Villanova and 6 of 18 against Providence—numbers that may not cut it against these dudes.
THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES
Michigan by 2.
November 27th, 2018 at 1:54 PM ^
Good preview, Ace.
November 27th, 2018 at 9:10 PM ^
Brian knows what Seth feels like now. Love it.
November 28th, 2018 at 5:06 AM ^
whoosh
November 28th, 2018 at 1:02 PM ^
I was referring to the numerous times Seth writes something Brian normally writes, with the “Good Article, BRIAN” replies.
Sounds like you deserve a “whoosh”.
November 28th, 2018 at 6:13 PM ^
This game is at 9:30 instead of 9. I know people mentioned this later in the thread, but you know. Go blue!
November 27th, 2018 at 2:01 PM ^
This edition of UNC is insanely fast and Michigan's D is locked in. Should be fun.
This sounds too familiar. Please don't hurt me again.
November 27th, 2018 at 2:01 PM ^
See #1 defensive ranking, now expects to lose by 23. /crying-emoji
November 27th, 2018 at 3:11 PM ^
It is at home though. If it were Chapel Hill, hello BPONE, but in Ann Arbor I'm still willing to allow myself a bit of optimism.
November 27th, 2018 at 3:27 PM ^
Yep. Too soon, universe, too soon.
November 27th, 2018 at 2:03 PM ^
Alright. Basketball!
November 27th, 2018 at 2:04 PM ^
I'm afraid I have entered the BPONE about this one.
November 27th, 2018 at 2:28 PM ^
You're in the BPONE ZONE!!!
This should be a t-shirt, btw
November 27th, 2018 at 2:34 PM ^
Why?
I mean it would be nice to win, but if we don't it truly doesn't make much difference. It's not liek our season is over if we lose or anything.
November 27th, 2018 at 2:51 PM ^
Great. Do everyone a favor and log off. Then throw all of your electronic devices into the ocean. Problem solved.
November 27th, 2018 at 6:14 PM ^
Okay!
November 27th, 2018 at 3:44 PM ^
I dont have basketball BPONE for 2 reasons. Each game is not as important as a football game and Beilein has washed away any reason for BPONE.
November 27th, 2018 at 4:31 PM ^
I missed this. what does BPONE refer to?
Edit: Nevermind found it
November 27th, 2018 at 2:04 PM ^
After deep contemplation and serious consideration, I've decided I would really enjoy Michigan winning this game.
November 27th, 2018 at 3:45 PM ^
I took a more pragmatic approach with a detailed list of benefits for both winning and losing with a weighted cost for each benefit and I too came to the same conclusion as you did that I too would enjoy us winning this game.
November 27th, 2018 at 2:06 PM ^
#1 defense in all the land. Nothing can go wrong.
November 27th, 2018 at 2:12 PM ^
I only recognize teams that have given up at most 61 points this year.
Thank you for existing basketball team.
November 27th, 2018 at 2:13 PM ^
Isnt football a revenue sport?
November 27th, 2018 at 2:16 PM ^
Recall from Brain's column yesterday that football doesn't exist. It is an illusion from the depths of hell.
November 27th, 2018 at 3:01 PM ^
Even without the column, the joke is obvious.
November 27th, 2018 at 9:05 PM ^
Says you.
.
.
.
Stinking nose breather.
November 28th, 2018 at 12:14 PM ^
Just not funny.
November 28th, 2018 at 3:18 PM ^
What is this football you are talking about?
November 27th, 2018 at 2:25 PM ^
Doesn't look like anything to me
November 28th, 2018 at 3:01 AM ^
“Doesn’t look like anything to me.”
Logged in to +1.
November 27th, 2018 at 2:57 PM ^
not since the 1930s when the Michigan president decided that big-time college football and its commitment to academics was not a good fit. Football was abolished in 1939, came back as a club sport in the 60s and has been competing in Div III since 1973.
November 27th, 2018 at 6:39 PM ^
Whoa, buddy, not so fast! First of all, it was 1949, not 1939; fresh off of back-to-back National Championships under Fritz Crisler and Bennie Oosterbaan, the NCAA asked Michigan to reclassify in order to give other teams a chance to win occasionally. While Desmond Howard was, in fact, the first Division III player ever to win the Heisman Trophy in 1991, that magical season set off a run through the ranks that culminated in the 1997 Division I National Championship and Charles Woodson's Heisman Trophy.
At this point, the NCAA again asked Michigan to reconsider its standing in the name of competition and good sportsmanship. Having accomplished all that they set out to do, they disbanded the football team once more in search of a more challenging pastime.
November 27th, 2018 at 4:55 PM ^
What's football?
November 28th, 2018 at 5:12 AM ^
It's a european sport. You run around and kick (or head!) a ball into a goal. Mostly, quite boring. Some positives: Rarely does a team with a #1 defense give up 62 goals.
November 27th, 2018 at 2:14 PM ^
#1 D according to the FancyStats; what could go wrong?
November 27th, 2018 at 2:18 PM ^
Michigan's only Revenue Sport?
ouch!
November 27th, 2018 at 3:47 PM ^
I know, right? Hockey makes money, doesn't it?
November 27th, 2018 at 4:05 PM ^
I think Softball does too. I mean, Hutch is our best coach (no offense to Beilein).
November 28th, 2018 at 1:34 AM ^
Softball loses money but it could potentially cross over in the next few years. Depends on how some of the expenses are accounted for
November 27th, 2018 at 2:24 PM ^
I strongly encourage their point guard to attempt to go Brunson on X, considering Brunson's own lack of effectiveness in going Brunson against X. Simpson getting in his head was basically the only thing that actually went right in the title game.
November 28th, 2018 at 9:21 AM ^
Simpson sees 5-star freshman point guard...
November 27th, 2018 at 2:28 PM ^
#1 defense you say? Why, there should be nothing to worry about in tomorrow's sporting event! Expect a romp!
November 27th, 2018 at 2:33 PM ^
Sterling Manley, Leaky Black, Seventh Woods.
That is an all-time all-name bench.
November 27th, 2018 at 2:53 PM ^
Sterling Manley on bass, Leaky Black on percussion, Seventh Woods on vibes.
November 28th, 2018 at 12:22 PM ^
George Costanza naming his future child 7 has finally paid off.
November 28th, 2018 at 3:29 PM ^
Black's Middle name is Malik. Which is where you get the Leaky. His name is Rechon (spelled like Rayshawn). I got nothing on the other two names lol.
November 27th, 2018 at 2:50 PM ^
All previews should be accompanied by Leeroy Jenkins.
November 28th, 2018 at 12:18 PM ^
Oh the joys of dps tanking wearing warlord pvp gear in UBRS while drunk in college.
That was totally the stupid crap I did.
November 27th, 2018 at 2:51 PM ^
Should be a fun game. It's sort of crazy UM lost three major pieces, including apparently 2 NBA players, from last year's team and may be even better this year.
November 27th, 2018 at 5:11 PM ^
Literally the exact same thing was said about the 16-17 team to last years team (lost a late first rounder, a guy that earned a two-way contract and another key senior).
This program is reload mode. And I would argue this year's team being better is far less of a surprise than last years team being better.
Going into last year, there were huge question marks about who would replace all three departed players: Walton was giving way to Z who had struggled his freshman year, Irvin was giving way to a talented but completely unproven transfer and DJ Wilson's departure left a major question mark at the four.
This year, Wagner left but his highly effective backup was primed to step into his place, and MAAR left but his productive backup Poole was a pretty easy fit there. Our two departed starters had backups that were both young and good last year. Then giving Livers (who had a better +/- than Duncan anyway) more minutes was an easy worst-case scenario at the four this year.
Everyone else seems incrementally improved (Z, Brooks, etc.). The addition of Brazdeikis has been gravy. And boom, the team is better.
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