The Evolution of Commerce - What Industries are Dying, What's Thriving?
Mates,
It has been on my mind recently that we live in a time of change as it relates to many things, not the least of which is commerce. I see some industries that we all know are dying (see e.g., video stores and malls in general) and of course some that are now taking the front and center stage (see e.g., Internet shopping ala Amazon).
Among some of the other dying trades would be things like newspapers, bookstores, 1 hour photo (do those even exist any more?) and maybe things like phone booth manufacturers.
As to thriving industries, those might include all manner of elder care businesses, microbreweries and distilleries (I can hear a loud cheer from the mgoglitteratti), and surprisingly some of the agricultural/farming niche industries.
So for you Mgovisionaries, the question is really a two-part one: What industries do you see that will either die althogether or shrink considerably? Similarly, what are the up and coming growth industries?
Lets hear from all you uber-smart folks on the list.
XM
April 22nd, 2018 at 12:02 PM ^
My fiancee is working toward her degree in cybersecurity right now. We will not be struggling financially once she's done. Cybersecurity is a lucrative field that will only become more important in the future.
April 20th, 2018 at 10:50 PM ^
Companies that manufacture mass transit will explode but jobs for people operating transit will disappear within 30 years.
Massive construction/infrastructure projects will dominate the landscape as wireless charging becomes necessary, starting with streets.
Companies specializing is genetic editing will take off within a few years.
April 20th, 2018 at 10:56 PM ^
if nobody is there to make the food or serve it? i guess the robots could do that too, but i think that's a way off.
April 21st, 2018 at 12:29 PM ^
Mass transit in what country? Europe or Asia, sure.
If you seriously believe that significant new mass transit is coming to the United States any time within the next two decades, you're fooling yourself. Badly.
The political will, or power, necessary to make it happen doesn't exist, since one of our two major political parties is categorically and philosophically opposed to anything smacking of public transit, and the money isn't there, anyhow—the recently-enacted fiscal time bomb that's now ticking at the federal level will doom any attempts to raise the necessary capital for such endeavors.
But the fact is there is going to be an incredible amount of money to be made in mass transit. And that’s the only motivation that matters.
It won’t be long before freeways and surface streets are demolished in order to add wireless charging capabilities for driverless electric cars. When that is being done, governments all over the country will use eminent domain to simultaneously expand mass transit so that it’s functional in the US.
The reason will be that large corporations which produce transit vehicles will see the money trough about to open and will lobby like crazy to get their hands on it.
April 20th, 2018 at 10:53 PM ^
April 21st, 2018 at 10:55 AM ^
April 20th, 2018 at 11:02 PM ^
thriving:
- data analytics/mining/science & insights
- medical industry of all kinds (home healthcare along with med research and pharma)
- virtual reality technology which I think will act as a layer on top of a bunch of industries (imagine "virtually" walking through a design of your home before it is built as a way to "experience" the architect design before any building starts. Same concept with say an operating procedure where a doctor can use vt to operate on someone thousands of miles away - already happening today but will increase)
- payments industry chain (banks, payment, credit etc)
- m&a activity along with partnerships (future business solutions will require a lot of specialization and therefore a lot of real-time collaboration among experts to create an end-to-end solution)
- I think there is already a collapsing into regional city hubs (Chicago, Denver, Atlanta, Dallas/Houston, Seattle, SF, LA, WDC, NYC, Boston, maybe Philadelphia, maybe Charlotte) but that could halt/reverse as people get tired of the congestion and use some of the above trends to exist remotely
- "experience economy" - only way to differentiate so it will also act as a layer on top of all sorts of industries. The "Lyft" experience is > the "taxi" experience in pretty much every way; personally I feel that youtubetv > sling tv because of the experience - so the first mover can end up getting mowed down by the fast follower with the better experience. I think AOL will overtake Compuserve as a result.
- also, seemingly, vape shops
dying:
- bricks and mortar retail - especially strip malls (see vape shop exception above)
- personally I think accounting and legal professions will take a hit in the next ten years as AI/rules-based concepts start to take out the lower end repetitive aspects of those professions
- again just personal opinion but I think the traditional world of academia is a bit of a bubble waiting to pop. When you look at tuition cost trends along with things like distance-based learning and the Khan academy and the comfort with which "today's kids" deal with virtual technology I could see a world where a substantial % of the population just opts out of the "go live here 4-5 years while you get a degree" approach. I think smaller schools with small endowments (heh heh he said endowment) will be the canary in the coal mine.
- not dying but we've already seen the "splintering" of entertainment, broadband delivery, news/media industries so places that can somehow simplify and package/aggregate (e.g. Youtube TV) will emerge
- oil change shops....electric cars will slowly replace gas cars in the fleet and no need for jiffy lube
there are more but I think this is boring enough already....
April 20th, 2018 at 11:16 PM ^
Have some knowledge/xp in the legal tech space. It's hard to predict what AI will do for the legal industry.
On one hand, AI/machine learning may lead to lawyers being able to more due diligence for deals etc... because they can review documents much faster.
On the other, stuff like basic wills etc... will get farmed out to services like LegalZoom. The catch is there is a huge market of people who should/might want to consider legal services who simply don't. E.g. the guy making a lower class income may never approach an attorney about estate planning, BUT he may use LegalZoom. Same goes for a small start-up for IP regarding trademarking their IP.
A lot of law is not simply just rules (but it can be). A decision-tree or expert system type tech won't be able to compute things like "Is this person an independent contractor or an employee?" There's too many variables generally to give a clear yes or no in many cases and firms selling software doing this are building in some big data/machine learning based algorithms to give risk tolerances etc...
*Real STEM people please excuse me if I used any tech terms in the wrong way.
April 20th, 2018 at 11:26 PM ^
April 21st, 2018 at 12:19 AM ^
April 21st, 2018 at 12:14 AM ^
April 20th, 2018 at 11:04 PM ^
And go carts. Fucking love go carts.
April 20th, 2018 at 11:07 PM ^
Some people will think you are kidding, but there was something on TV that I saw a couple months ago on this topic. Really creepy.
April 20th, 2018 at 11:14 PM ^
April 21st, 2018 at 12:36 PM ^
You think obesity is a problem now—just wait till 75% of the population is baked all the time.
As a person living in one of the now 9 states with legalized recreational weed, this is actually kind of a thing. But in the end, growing weed is just ag, distribution is just distribution, and retailing really isn't much different so aside from the barriers to entry on the regulatory side it's too easy for competitors to move in. Definitely a lot of money to be made but not a gold rush.
April 20th, 2018 at 11:23 PM ^
April 20th, 2018 at 11:27 PM ^
Dying: KMart
Thriving: Internet porn
There's porn on the internet now?
(checks CRG's avatar)
April 22nd, 2018 at 12:19 PM ^
Wait...I thought the internet was invented so we could post/watch cat videos and argue with people we don't know...
April 21st, 2018 at 11:03 AM ^
April 20th, 2018 at 11:29 PM ^
April 20th, 2018 at 11:32 PM ^
industry, and i was watching a video last week about how a robotic system was going to build a house on site, including laying the block for the foundation and the framing. i guess i can see some of that being mechanized, but i have a hard time seeing it all done away with. too many variables.
April 20th, 2018 at 11:48 PM ^
The guys who used to do it are mostly in their late 40's and not up to it physically anymore -- it's tough work.
Houses will be made from giant blocks of recycled material that can be cut out by a 3d printer
April 20th, 2018 at 11:41 PM ^
April 20th, 2018 at 11:44 PM ^
April 21st, 2018 at 12:24 AM ^
but since i don't know the first thing about brewing, it sounds better from you.
April 21st, 2018 at 12:24 AM ^
but since i don't know the first thing about brewing, it sounds better from you.
April 20th, 2018 at 11:45 PM ^
April 20th, 2018 at 11:52 PM ^
asking for a beef/lamb/chicken/dairy/egg/turkey farmer that would like to know....
is soylent green really our future?
April 20th, 2018 at 11:56 PM ^
April 21st, 2018 at 12:02 AM ^
Einstein said, "Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one."
And Ludwig Borne said, "Losing an illusion makes you wiser than finding a truth."
So if this is true, does the death of reality mean that mankind will become wiser? Or is that just another illusion?
Damn. I knew I should have quit drinking and gone to bed.
April 21st, 2018 at 12:19 AM ^
you must think past the singularity; perhaps we won't be needed at all