Report: DJ Wilson To Stay In Draft
[Marc-Gregor Campredon]
From DX so very solid:
Sources tell DraftExpress that D.J. Wilson is keeping his name in the 2017 NBA Draft and will not return to Michigan.
— Jonathan Givony (@DraftExpress) May 24, 2017
Our analysis is that this is bad.
Michigan has a couple options to fill the roster spot Wilson is apparently vacating. Illinois State grad transfer Mikyle MacIntosh just withdrew his name from the draft; he's another high-usage, dubious efficiency lower level guy. This is mostly because of his two point shooting. He was 76/44/36 last year on 28% usage. He had a block rate similar to Wilson and could help patch that lineup hole.
The other option is Canadian SF/PF Ignas Brazdeikis, who is currently planning on being a 2018 recruit but is keeping 2017 options open.
UPDATE: It's official.
"D.J. and our coaching staff worked very hard over the last month to get as much information as possible on his draft status," said U-M head coach John Beilein. "Given the data and insight we received, D.J. is confident he is ready to take the next step in his basketball career. We love D.J., and he will always be a Michigan Wolverine. His development over the past three seasons, and particularly this past season, was phenomenal. With continued work, he shows great potential to improve in a similar manner in the NBA. We wish him and his family the very best, and we will always be rooting for him during this draft process and for all the years to come."
I just don't believe in any guarantee from a professional organization. It's a guarantee until that one guy they thought would never be there somehow falls to them.
this is more money than a huge majority of US households make in their entire lifetimes.
And yes, he'll pay more taxes on this than someone making 100k over 25 years, but he also gets it right upfront and the time value of money more than offsets the tax implications. If he's smart with that 2.5M, even net of taxes, he could live a modest, middle-class lifestyle without ever working again if we wanted.
He's not assuming he will do it, just saying it's quite possible. And it's not like the pro athletes who make 10s or 100s of millions do any better job of not going broke.
Powerball is at $250 million. i'm going to be set after tonight!
What makes you think he will develop better college than he will at the pro level?
No matter how good JB is at player development (and he is great) it stands to reason that removing the distraction of school and focusing full time on ball would help you develop more quickly. NBA has even made huge invetments in the D (soon to be G) League to improve player development.
And that is aside from the fact that you actually get paid.
What he needs right now is weight, and to improve his offense. The NBA doesn't exactly give guys a real long leash to work with. I stand by my comment.
He's 21 years old and already has had knee injury problems. If he's got a 1st round guarantee, as has been reported, he made a smart career choice to leave.
~80 games of NBA development are better than ~30 games of college plus classes
JB is the platonic ideal of a college basketball coach. He actively supports his players and understands that the best financial move for them is to get that money while they're still young. Do you remember this article from the Stauskas/McGary/GR3 draft?
I don't think he pushes the players to actively leave but at the same time he's straight with them in terms of what entering the draft could ultimately mean for them.
I think lobbying hard for a player to come back (ala Bridges) is ulitmately the most selfish thing someone can do. A multimillionaire "role model" who is asking for a year of unpaid service that will ultimately cost that player millions of dollars.
there's a huge difference in outcomes between even the last picks of the 1st round and the first picks of the 2nd round.
I really hope he makes it into the 1st round.
B) will it continue to pan out
C) show me actual outcomes, not just some one off article.
I ran the outcomes against each other for a study two years ago, and the difference in career longevity between the last 5 of the 1st round and first five of the 2nd round was significant.
The study covered almost a decade (the comparison was just one part of it).
here were the results (listed as average YoS):
2003 8.8 to 4.6
2004 9.0 to 3.4
2005 7.2 to 5.0
2006 5.8 to 5.6
2007 5.2 to 4.2
2008 5.0 to 4.8
2009 5.8 to 4.2
2010 4.0 to 2.2
2011 3.4 to 2.2
The study was run in 2015, so numbers got closer as we got to the 2015 draft year (no time for differentiation).
Until you can show me that the outcomes have narrowed or even reversed, I say bull to your contention. We can revisit in 5 years. Current wisdom should be that it's much, much better to get into the 1st round. And if it isn't, why do you think both Moe and DJ were so clear about the 1st round being a breakpoint in their decision process, hmm?
which you claimed was interchangeable and now you're saying they're not.
Done with this nonsense.
And only a loon would claim the differences shown there are marginal. I'd love to cash in the amount of dollars represented by those differences. Those differences represent a lot of money (the minimum goes up the longer you've been in the NBA).
Shoo.
knowing what he heard from teams. Your assessment that he made the wrong decision seems to be based solely on your own impression that he's like to drop to the second round based on...a gut feeling? Despite his own statements that he'd only stay if 1st round was likely (and he has better information than anyone else to know whether that's likely), and rumors that he has a gaurantee?
For those coming out to demean & devalue DJ Wilson, realize Wilson has a significant injury history and is already 21. He took the safe bet.
— Brendan F. Quinn (@BFQuinn) May 24, 2017
I think Quinn is absolutely right on his take. It's relatively similar to Mitch McGary if he had decided to stay despite the suspension. McGary would have been 23 at the time of the draft, had injury issues, and may not necessarily increased his value as a prospect.
He's just a guy with an opinion like the rest of us.
Beilein is playing against a stacked deck. Basketball recruiting would make bagmen in the SEC blush. UM basketfall fans would have to be willing to overlook quite a bit if they want to recruit with the Caliparis of the college basketball world.
not done much in college yet still get drafted at 1st round. DJ Wilson has potential to be a 3 and D player which is valuable especially at PF and C position. He can slide in as a small ball C if Gobert can't guard in the perimeter like he did against GSW in the playoff. Wilson has the length, athleticism and shot blocking to be an effective small ball C.
It's all about potential and Wilson has it.
Wilson has the length, athleticism and shot blocking to be effective in the NBA? Then why was he not dominant in college?
This is just either 1) bad advice or 2) a horrible decision by an NBA exec to ruin their 1st round pick.
He is not close to ready.
To your point, Draymond Green never averaged more than 1.1 blks per game in college and is now an effective rim protector for one of the best NBA teams of all time. DJ averaged 1.5 this year.
Outside of a handful of prospects, the NBA draft is always a crapshoot. Name one recent draft year where more than half of the first rounders became decent rotational players.
DJ is not ready. However, this may be the time when his stock is the highest.
who are not being close to being ready. What's your point? NBA draft is all about potential at 1st round. DJ Wilson has that skillset that excites NBA coaches/GMs i.e. length, shooting and shot blocking.
Not every team needs their 1st round pick to be a big contributor right away.
An example of such a team could be one that currently has a young, talented nucleus that went to the 2nd round and has two first round draft picks ranging from 24-30 where you dont usually get rookie starters but might be able to get sleepers and development guys.
Good luck, DJ.
*heavy sigh*
Really hope he got a guarantee of going in the first round.
And once again Michigan basketball will operate below its championship-level potential.
Bummer man. Good luck DJ.
Why do we only see these kids perform at optimum levels in the 2nd half of the year? Wish these guys could make the full jump in the offseason and thus perform at a high level all year.
Grrr...
Good luck DJ.
Another Michigan player seemingly leaving too soon.
Still waiting for official word...
Just another reason I hate the NBA and won't watch it anymore.
Michigan BBall is the springiest of springboards. Our dudes seem to leave at a much earlier rate compared to other schools. Oh well, best of luck DJ.
What?
You might want to look again.
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