CFP Rankings Speculation

Submitted by lhglrkwg on

Welp. I'm as pissed as anyone but fortunately Michigan still controls its own destiny.

Today was the classic late season, everyone loses Saturday and we thought it would be dull. So with #2 Clemson, #3 Michigan, #4 Washington, "#8" Texas A&M & #9 Auburn all losing what happens Tuesday? Believe it or not, our loss was probably the most respectable of them all with Clemson losing at home to a similar team and Washington lost by double-digits at home to a ranked team.

I have no idea how you sort this out. Do we even drop? I'm guessing

  1. Alabama
  2. Ohio State
  3. Michigan??
  4. Louisville??
  5. Clemson
  6. Washington

It's going to be hard for the committee to justify throwing Louisville past Clemson and all the way up to 3 and no one else can really justify overtaking us but OSU. Is there a shot we stay put with a last second loss on the road at night?

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profholt82

November 13th, 2016 at 12:09 AM ^

What can you say? You can't always win them all, and they got caught tonight. It was a tough loss to take, but nothing has really changed. Beat Indiana, beat Ohio and they're in the Big Ten Championship game. Have the tiebreaker on Penn St obviously. The same things they would have had to do to get to the playoff had they won tonight. They may fall out of the top 4 in the CFP rankings this week, but as long as they take care of business from here on out, nothing has changed.

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funkywolve

November 13th, 2016 at 2:06 AM ^

With all the upsets today if they get out of Iowa City with a 13-11 win and as long as they beat IU and at worst lose a close game in Columbus and they are probably in the playoff.  Now, they half to win out.  A 2 loss UM team is not making the CFP.

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ProcheGoBlue

November 13th, 2016 at 12:09 AM ^

This is how it will look.

1. Alabama
2. Ohio State
3. Any other SEC team.
4. Cleveland Browns
5. Michigan
6. Any other school with Alabama in the name.
7. Charles Xavier's school for the gifted.
8. ???



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titanfan11

November 13th, 2016 at 12:12 AM ^

Washington lost to a ranked team who is hot as hell, but Washington does not really have any good wins.  

1.  Alabama

2.  Ohio State

3.  Louisville

4.  Michigan

5.  Clemson

6.  Washington

7.  Wisconsin

8.Oklahoma

9.  Penn State

10.  Colorado

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M-Dog

November 13th, 2016 at 12:51 AM ^

Clemson will be above us.  A lot of people were not sold on Michigan and we did nothing to change that opinion.  Meawhile, they are all over Clemson - even though they shouldn't be - mostly because of Watson and last year.

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NittanyFan

November 13th, 2016 at 12:23 AM ^

a road loss by a mere point against a halfway-decent opponent?

For better or worse, those things do happen.  Undefeated seasons are rare events.  Playing on the road is tough.  That's a better loss than either Clemson's loss (at home) or Washington's loss (at home).

OSU --- given the direct comparison to Michigan in the Penn State and Wisconsin games --- cannot credibly be ahead of Michigan.  IMO.

I'd have: 1. Alabama, 2. Michigan, 3. Ohio State, 4. Clemson, 5. Louisville, 6. Wisconsin, 7. Washington ...... then others.

I think that WVU is the single-most-interesting team as regards this week's rankings.  They still only have 1 loss.  The winner of next week's Oklahoma/WVU game will definitely be at least at the fringes of the playoff talk.

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wolfman81

November 13th, 2016 at 7:42 PM ^

NittnayFan says it all. Clearly Michigan is better based on comparisons to PSU. No other data is required for him. He also ignores a cardinal rule of CFB. That is: He who loses first, loses best. (Especially when the teams in question have not played head to head.) This is because of "physics" and the team that lost earlier in the season has had more time to gain "momentum". (I am a physics teacher, and writing that made me throw up in my mouth a bit. I must now get mouthwash...)

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AMazinBlue

November 13th, 2016 at 12:14 AM ^

we could play decently on the road and IF OSU didn't finally wake up and play offense.  I get they have played some horrible teams the last couple of weeks, but theat Nebraska win was impressive to the committee and we just shit the bed to a .500 team.

We have to destroy Indian next week and somehow find a way to be competitive at the shoe.  Tall task considering our QB may be out for the next two games and Peppers has beewn overused to the point of being neutralized.

Biggest problem tonight was Brown's defensive gameplan was over aggressive and the pass rush by passed the QB and runnings backs and they controlled the LOS

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Honey Badger

November 13th, 2016 at 12:15 AM ^

Crazy thing is if Ohio beats us and Penn State wins out. Penn State goes to the Big 10 Ship. Everybody agrees both Ohio and Michigan are better than Penn State. We need to just win baby!

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DenardPeppers

November 13th, 2016 at 12:18 AM ^

first they can't justify putting Clemson behind Louisville cause you know Clemson. beat them and they. otherwise only have one loss. 1. Bama 2. OSU 3. Clemson 4. Louisville 5. Michigan 6. Washington Then the 2 loss teams. or maybe Western. My reasoning for Louisville over us is they lost to Clemson and we lost to Iowa. We probably have the worse loss among those 5 teams. Pitt has beaten a top 10 team and Iowa hasn't. Plus if you go by the eye test we looked like SHIT. Clemson at least put up 600 plus yards of offense. one other thing I want a pure dual threat QB that can run. option and pass like a stud.

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Yooper

November 13th, 2016 at 12:17 AM ^

If we beat them, they are out. If OSU and fucking Penn State win out Penn State goes to the BIG championship. If either PSU wins hard to see how OSU get in. Only way to avoid chaos is for us to win out.

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tmzenn

November 13th, 2016 at 1:51 AM ^

I hate to say it, but OSU will be ranked number 2 next week. Therefore, even if Penn State goes to the Big championship and OSU wins out, I highly doubt they drop a 1 loss  OSU team that is ranked 2 out of the top 4 teams in the playoff. I could see a possibility that a two loss big ten champ and a one loss OSU team in the 4 team playoff. We need to just win out and let this not be a factor. 

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Yeoman

November 13th, 2016 at 12:23 AM ^

...they'll undo it all after the conference championship games, giving bumps to the winners. They might well put Louisville ahead of Clemson on Tuesday but they won't keep them there if Clemson wins out.

Alabama is in unless they lose twice.

Michigan, Ohio State, Clemson and Washington are all in if they win out.

Louisville is only in if they win out and there's an upset in one of the championship games other than the SEC. (It's possible a 2-loss Wisconsin would end up ahead of Louisville too.)

Next comes West Virginia if they win out.

Then they start picking from the 2-loss conference champions. Maybe the M/OSU loser is in this slot too but I'm guessing the loser of that game is out now.

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the Glove

November 13th, 2016 at 12:19 AM ^

As terrible as it sounds, this might be the best case scenario for a lost this season. 5 the top 10 go down and they have beaten two of the others in Penn State and Wisconsin. Also, soon-to-be top 10 Colorado. Just need to win out. But we all know the Alabama's got this locked up.

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AMazinBlue

November 13th, 2016 at 12:19 AM ^

and got smoked at PSU last week.  This may hurt more than you think.

What saves us everyone else of consequence lost too.  Winning out just looks tougher after that crapfest.  Our two real road games and we didn't dominate either one like we should have.

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michgoblue

November 13th, 2016 at 12:20 AM ^

As the only undefeated team, Alabama is the consensus #1. After that, there are 5 legit 1-loss teams: OSU, Washington, Louisville, Clemson and us. We are not falling behind a 2-loss team for losing on the road at night on a last second field goal. This is especially true since we beat the top two ranked 2-loss teams (Wisconsin and PSU). Note that auburn and Texas A&M lost so they are out of the discussion. So, our worst case is 6. But, I think that our loss on the road isn't as bad as Clemson's home loss. Also, Washington lost handily at home. So, I think we are 4: 1. Bama 2. OSU 3. Louisville 4. Michigan 5. Clemson 6. Washington Even if we are 5, we still play OSU, so win and we are in.

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CorkyCole

November 13th, 2016 at 12:24 AM ^

I think the biggest impact this game has on our playoff run is that we no longer have a potential loss on the cards that would still keep us in. There was still a shot that we could lose to either OSU or the B1G championship game and still get in, but that's no longer a possibility. Win out. That is all. And for you doubters to judge this team's potential based off of one game is plain ridiculous. How can we absolutely destroy a team that beat OSU but not have the talent to defeat OSU justhe because we played in the cursed Kinnick Stadium and lost? This is college football guys. Great teams lose to teams they should destroy every year. Next week and the week is a true test - how do you respond in defeat? I have a hard time not seeing a Harbaugh led team respond well.

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Schrödingers Cat

November 13th, 2016 at 1:27 AM ^

I totally agree with your last sentence but you lost me early on with the OSU PSU transitive property scenario. I had a professor tell me that would be the only property I'd ever own. I learned from that, shifted fire and now I'm a better man with tangible property. We are down but certainly not out.



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titanfan11

November 13th, 2016 at 12:23 AM ^

hard to imagine Bama losing, so one spot to them.  

Clemson most likely wins the ACC, so do they get in with Louisville?  Just Clemson?  

PAC-12 seems out.

OKlahoma is  long shot, but those odds got better tonight.  

In the BIG...if Michigan wins out, they are the only team to make it.  But, say OSU and PSU win out regular season, and Wisconsin beats PSU in the title game.  That would put Wisky and OSU in, right?  

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Yeoman

November 13th, 2016 at 12:34 AM ^

In fact I think Washington probably still controls their own destiny. 12-1 off a win over Colorado or Utah, vs. an 11-1 Louisville with only one win all year over a top-50 (Massey) team.

It's not hard to put together a scenario that gets Colorado in if they win out, either. They would have closed with three really good wins (Wazzoo, Utah, Washington) and their two losses are good ones.

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