Member for

9 years 9 months
Points
1362.00

Recent Comments

Date Title Body
09/06/2018 - 8:27am Interesting article, but I…

Interesting article, but I would say that it has a misleading headline. In order to measure improvement, I would think that you should compare current performance to past performance. There is no comparison to the Home era.  Instead, it compares Harbaugh's teams' performance to NCAA FBS averages over the same span.  And it also compares actual performance (Wins/Losses) to expected performance based on different QB performance metrics.

I would also say that it doesn't make me feel better as a fan (and it probably wouldn't make the team feel better). FBS average isn't what the winningest program in football history aspires to. (Even significantly better than FBS average...)  And outperforming expectations based on QB play probably means that they are underperforming expectations based on some other metric (say pick your favorite rushing defense fancystat).

 

09/05/2018 - 11:10am Your recaps are a tried and…

Your recaps are a tried and true, known and respected mainstay.  +1 to you here, and +1 to you there when I get to that thread.

09/05/2018 - 11:08am Face it, spell check existed…

Face it, spell check existed in 1997.

The first spell checkers were widely available on mainframe computers in the late 1970s...The first spell checkers for [some models of] personal computers appeared in 1980.

From wikipedia

Yes, I realize that this only strengthens your case.

08/25/2018 - 3:33pm Then you are doing it wrong…

Then you are doing it wrong.

#bornfree

08/22/2018 - 12:52pm What no spoiler alert?  I so…

What no spoiler alert?  I so didn't want to see those numbers :(

08/22/2018 - 12:28pm Because they don't want to…

Because they don't want to reward running up the score on a weaker opponent.  At least, that was always the argument that was trotted out in the BCS era when discussing computer ranking algorithms.  (Yes, I know that I've trotted out the wrong sport.  I'm guessing the rationale is the same.)

08/14/2018 - 11:48pm Also, the programs that …

Also, the programs that "reload" often have highly drafted guys.  And players shouldn't leave unless they are in the top round or three.  As far as the backups go, it is one thing to not see the field behind replacement-level player, and another thing to not see the field behind 1st round NFL draft pick, all-American, and/or 1st-team All B1G player.  

Is "couldn't take snaps from Rashan Gary and Chase Winovich" exactly a damning take to have for a player (especially a young player)?  I say no.

08/06/2018 - 1:12pm I think Urban will keep his…

I think Urban will keep his job, and here is why.

  1. Zero students. There were zero students harmed in this scandal. Not to diminish what happened, but there was no policy breakdown which resulted in students getting sexually assaulted. (So this is different than Nassar at MSU in that regard.)
  2. Not on campus. OSU facilities were not used to groom future victims of abuse. (So this is different from Ped State). In fact you could argue that this is in the jurisdiction of the Columbus (or even Gainesville) police department.

I don't like it, but I don't see much changing.

08/06/2018 - 12:58pm Actually, as a blue blood…

Actually, as a blue blood program, I would say that they are better positioned to be the agent of change for the larger society. If they self-imposed penalties that included firing Urban Meyer (and maybe took a step or two beyond that) then everyone could pressure subsequent offenders into harsher penalties. (Even Ohio State killed the goose laying the golden eggs, who are you to go easy on your coach/player/etc...)

To be clear, this is not a prediction, just an observation.

07/22/2018 - 11:05pm Of course they can if they…

Of course they can if they...

SOLVE THEIR PROBLEMS WITH AGGRESSION!

07/09/2018 - 11:54pm Hell, even Spartan Bob could…

Hell, even Spartan Bob could run a better clock than the FIFA folks.

Soccer VAR time seems wildly off to me. Or, maybe more to the point, the time spent with the review is not being counted as only the review. Think about a typical time VAR is used.

Play in question happens. Team gets hurt feelings because they feel ref got it wrong. A horde of angry players surrounds ref, pointing, cajoling, and getting in his face. Another horde of angry players goes and messes up the penalty spot or carries on some other, similar in spirit, shenanigans. In the meantime, the VAR folks are looking carefully at the play, deciding that the ref done screwed up. They queue up the play, with 2 or 3 clear angles and call the ref over. (Start 538's clock) So all the ref does is roll over and have the VAR say, "lookie here, yew donne screwed up." The ref then goes, "yep, I did." and fixes the call.

Queue the angry horde of players on the other team to repeat the process in reverse.

By the way, I have no patience for millionaire crybabies. And, in my eyes, soccer players take the cake on that one. This is why I could never be a soccer referee (or in any sport for that matter). I'd fling the red card out at the kind of shit these guys pull. Every game I reffed would end as a 7 on 6 contest as long as that crap went on.

07/04/2018 - 3:14pm Dear City Observatory:

Bar…

Dear City Observatory:

Bar graphs suck, and you should feel bad for creating that one.  It should be a box and whisker plot.  Also, percent change in average median income for each bracket is also meaningless (I think that is what those percentages are next to each series of bars anyway).  There is something called effect size.  Look into it.

/unnecessarily grouchy rant

 

06/27/2018 - 7:40pm And they way that the game…

And they way that the game is designed is feeding into the ebb and flow nature of the game exacerbates the primacy of the RNG (weren't we down to like 2 territories at one point?).  To put it into Risk terms, the army you deploy each turn depends on the number of users that you have that play a particular turn.  So when your territory shrinks, assuming you have a fixed number of users playing every day, you can improve your odds simply because you have more users per territory.

Ultimately the way the game should be played is to make it more like Risk (more territory means you have more attacking power).  And to their credit, the game mods tried to do that (if you have more than x% of a conference, you get a bonus) until it was shot down because some conferences were more contiguous than others, and it favored a certain red team who may or may not be a member of the B1G conference. 

I'm also not sure that the way the alliances have formed have been helpful for the game either.  Essentially, this has turned into a two team game with strange sub-team rules.  And what about the great Team Chaos wildcard?  I hope they bring it back (because it is a fun OT-season pastime), but think about how to address these things in the future.

06/25/2018 - 9:16am Not bad. Additional…

Not bad. Additional qualifying standard in Michigan (Div 1) is 50.50 s. If I recall correctly, this is determined using the average 8th place finish at the state meet over the past 5 years.

The state champ will probably break 48.

When I was in HS, we had a guy run a similar 400 time. He went to Ferris State to return kickoffs (and kick them too). Not that straight line speed is how we measure how good a football player is.

06/20/2018 - 1:23am Down with the Red Alliance!

Down with the Red Alliance!

06/11/2018 - 3:03pm Yeah.  That graphic makes no…

Yeah.  That graphic makes no sense as written.  Somebody should tell PFF.

06/01/2018 - 10:29am Discord name

swolf81

05/17/2018 - 3:11pm Wait?!?!?!?!

I thought it was the one-armed man!!!!

05/15/2018 - 12:20pm Good thing I'm on the Discord

For some reason, the michigancfbrisk.com url has been tagged by my IT folks as malware :(

05/14/2018 - 1:51pm Discord Username

swolf81

05/11/2018 - 10:58pm Discord username: swolf81

Discord username: swolf81

05/09/2018 - 1:26pm Not that hard

I'm fired up that my favorite team is playing the Browns this week.  I think we'll win by 2 touchdowns.

04/10/2018 - 10:15pm Here...

have a spring.  

Image result for car spring

You seem to need it...

04/06/2018 - 2:48pm HIPAA can be waived

I am not a lawyer.

But I would guess that it has to do with the NFL rules about injury reporting and the like.  Just think about how often we hear about some player's ACL or torn muscle...I am guessing that as a condition of employment for NFL athletes (and the medical treatment that they will automatically be able to access for free) they have to waive certain rights.

Plus, fans have a right to know about Curt Schilling's bloody sock...

Image result for curt schilling bloody sock

03/23/2018 - 9:02am Delta will have WiFi

They may block certain sites. For example, I can never watch Netflix when I fly (but I am too cheap to pay for WiFi).

You should probably get their app. Their website has some info. https://www.delta.com/content/www/en_US/traveling-with-us/onboard-servi…

But, it might be easiest to call someone there and they may be able to help you set something up.

03/07/2018 - 10:08pm Hmmmm...

Hmmmm...

Image result for cart before the horse

12/05/2017 - 8:11pm Just Win

11/29/2017 - 11:03pm All students sign away image rights

Every student signs away image rights when they accept admission to many universities.  This covers pictures the University puts on its website, promotional materials, and ... When ESPN comes to town and wants to show the big footbaw game.

But as many above have pointed out, if any old student wants to sell his/her image they can.  I think athletes can get permission to do it too...Jeremey Bloom rings a bell http://www.nytimes.com/2002/07/30/sports/college-football-olympian-sues… as long as they aren't making money for being good at their scholarship-earning sport.  But that is an odd edge case.

11/15/2017 - 7:14pm Don't forget Australia!!!

...oh wait...

Sorry, just makes me remember the continent song that I learned in primary school.

11/13/2017 - 9:29pm I'm farther east

I'm in Greenville, NC, and I was able to watch much of the MSU/OSU game over the air.  (And then I turned it off, because it was too ugly...)

11/08/2017 - 9:11pm Linear regression mis-applied here

Linear regression is the wrong tool here.  The dependant data (defensive rank of any sort) is not a continuous variable, or even an interval variable.  This is not true about defensive rank data.  For linear regression to be appropriate, these things would need to be true:

  • The difference between the #1 and the #2 defense must be the same as the difference between the #10 and #11 defense.
  • The #20 defense must be twice as bad as the #10 defense.  (Or a similar statement given the way that you've inverted your scale).

As I see it there are two ways to repair this analysis:

  1. Use the raw S&P+ score instead of the rank.  Of course all of the rules of linear regression should be followed when performing this sort of analysis.  (For example, what do the residuals look like?)
  2. Use an ordinal logistic regression.  (I don't believe that Excel can do this without additional software, though I have never tried.  This is a tutorial about ordinal logistic regression using the free statistical software R.)
10/18/2017 - 7:50am All of them

As someone who has left Michigan, and is now over 4 hours from the nearest orchard, the correct answer is, "all of them."

I really miss going to an orchard every fall. A pumpkin patch and hayride is no substitute for fresh cider and picking my own apples. (Although, they do donuts pretty good here in the South.)

09/27/2017 - 11:56am Most Big Ten or Baseball?

7-5 has to either be the most Big Ten score ever, or a typo from a baseball score.

Shakes Head

09/04/2017 - 11:11am My list, in no particular order

O hell quadruple post. So looking forward to the new site for mobile.

09/04/2017 - 11:09am My list, in no particular order

Start fast. No early mistakes.

No injuries.

Ball security on offense. No turnovers.

Turn them over on Defense. Let's see an INT or two.

Cincy doesn't get a first down while our first string D is on the field.

No punts while Speight is in.

09/04/2017 - 11:09am My list, in no particular order

Start fast. No early mistakes.

No injuries.

Ball security on offense. No turnovers.

Turn them over on Defense. Let's see an INT or two.

Cincy doesn't get a first down while our first string D is on the field.

No punts while Speight is in.

09/04/2017 - 11:09am My list, in no particular order

Start fast. No early mistakes.

No injuries.

Ball security on offense. No turnovers.

Turn them over on Defense. Let's see an INT or two.

Cincy doesn't get a first down while our first string D is on the field.

No punts while Speight is in.

09/04/2017 - 9:23am Dad life

Dad life is great!  Enjoy them bronxblue.  Mine are aged 4 and 7, and I can tell you for a fact that life after diapers is wonderful!!!!!!!  Now I just need to get them more into football.  They will watch for a drive or two, but they lose interest.  I think I need to start taking them to live games.  (But I don't live anywhere near Ann Arbor)

09/03/2017 - 10:25pm All of these options are West

All of these options are West Virginia with wings on the helmet.

https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcTBMT3fMS-hWtbDKD0…

getoffmylawn.gif

09/03/2017 - 10:08pm Three things

1. A late hit? Really? Here is the rule:

Late Hit, Action Out of Bounds
ARTICLE 7. a. There shall be no piling on, falling on or throwing the body
on an opponent after the ball becomes dead (A.R. 9-1-7-I).
b. No opponent shall tackle or block the runner when he is clearly out of
bounds or throw him to the ground after the ball becomes dead.
c. It is illegal for any player to be clearly out of bounds when he initiates a
block against an opponent who is out of bounds. The spot of the foul is
where the blocker crosses the sideline in going out of bounds.

Part b indicates the player must *clearly* out of bounds. The runner was out of bounds for 10ths of seconds, at most. The late hit flag should have been picked up. But I doubt they can do that from the booth.

2. Targeting is about protecting defenseless players. Runners can receive more high contact. I wonder if the replay official determined not defenseless since the runner had not been out of bounds long enough. It is also about forcible contact, and that hit wasn't going to make the top plays list on Sports center (15 years ago when violence was more celebrated)

3. Wrap up, and aim for the midsection. Targeting looks worse when the runner bounces off of the tackler's shoulder pad or helmet. The sideline complicates this on this particular play.

08/25/2017 - 11:03am Fellow carpetbagger here

I miss Meijer too... I haz a sad now.

08/25/2017 - 10:52am Today, you saved...

When the checkout person says, "Today, you saved $$" Like I was going to pay the marked up price for whatever I am getting.

07/11/2017 - 8:05pm fify

... except beating Illinois in thrilling fashion.

06/20/2017 - 12:46pm Not sure I agree with the premise.

Specifically that the offense will only go "as far as the Freshman wideouts can take it." I would say that the weakness is the offensive line. Even if Speight proves to be elusive like last season, the hits add up. If the line can be an average Michigan offensive line, that is a win. Bunting and Wheatley and (maybe) Gentry should be a plus in the pass game from the TE spot, and RB is DEEP. They will have WRs out there who can compete and win, Freshman or not.

06/13/2017 - 9:08pm not a terrible idea...

...for satellite camp season anyway, and maybe the lead-in to NSD.

06/13/2017 - 8:20pm no politics?

+1 funny (for both of the above)

06/06/2017 - 5:55pm pick yes, six meh?

At least more thievery on the long balls. The lack of elite speed may inhibit the touchdown run. But I would be happy with 5 or 6 more picks per year out of the safety spot.

05/26/2017 - 6:44pm Different teams

And you think that their defense will be better than their top 10 defense from 2 seasons ago because...?

05/22/2017 - 6:08pm Also...

I am a Nigerian prince, and I have $10,000,000 US ...

05/11/2017 - 8:01am Looks like no

http://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/242860/d-league-increases-salaries…

?