Thought experiment: OSU Playoff Rematch...
Not gonna lie, I periodically fantasize about beating OSU twice in the same year, the second time being for the National Championship. Imagine that! Permanent series bragging rights... "You can have your 20 years of dominance, we beat you twice in one year--The Game in Columbus and The Game II for the Natty!"
Also, not gonna lie, I like the thought of keeping our current bragging rights for another 360+ days regardless of what happens in the playoffs, so playing them again and possibly losing to them this soon after Armageddon--and on that stage--would be awful.
Ignoring all the "it'll never happen--they'd get destroyed by Georgia" takes, would you like to see these two play again in the playoff (presumably the 'ship and not a semi)? And, if we beat them, what would that mean? What would you do? Conversely, same questions for if we were to lose...
I don't think we'd "flinch" in a rematch, but I do think it'll be more of a challenge since they won't go zero or single-high so much and Day will go for it on 4th and short every time. But, oh yeah--LOL--if they go 2-deep we mash 'em anyway. Plus, their offense will still not have a good power success rate on 3rd and 4th downs. Haha! Anyway, how do you see an immediate rematch going?
November 29th, 2022 at 8:27 PM ^
No thanks.
November 29th, 2022 at 8:28 PM ^
Immediate rematch would be incredible. Beating them for the national championship would be the biggest win in college football history.
November 29th, 2022 at 8:35 PM ^
Would it though? Michigan already beat them this year where and when The Game is played. Personally I think a win over Georgia would be far bigger.
November 29th, 2022 at 8:47 PM ^
M over Georgia would be amazing, but nationally forgotten within a few years. Beating osu in the National Championship would go down in all time lore. I am cheering for osu to miss the playoff, because I am decidedly not an osu fan. But, I would gladly embrace facing them again for all the marbles. I’m not scared.
November 29th, 2022 at 8:57 PM ^
It isn’t fear, I just don’t think it would really be like that. A win and we already knew that, a loss and the teams split on the season. I can only speak for myself, but I would be notably more excited about a Georgia matchup than an OSU rematch.
November 29th, 2022 at 9:04 PM ^
I respect your take - and respectfully disagree. But, we both prefer to see osu snubbed again, because they failed to win The Game.
November 29th, 2022 at 9:25 PM ^
Yes, correct. I would prefer to see chalk this weekend. TCU in the Fiesta Bowl sets up good for Michigan.
November 29th, 2022 at 9:09 PM ^
No one outside of Michigan and OSU fans care about a rematch in the natty.
November 30th, 2022 at 2:54 AM ^
This. The Alabama - LSU rematch a few years ago was one of the lowest rated national championship games played.
I'm sure it was quite a buzz for those 2 teams, but nobody else cared anymore.
November 29th, 2022 at 8:47 PM ^
I'll take any National Championship
November 29th, 2022 at 8:56 PM ^
And a loss?
November 29th, 2022 at 9:00 PM ^
Bob - Do you think we would lose? I don’t.
November 30th, 2022 at 5:24 AM ^
It is very hard to beat the same team twice. The ideal situation might be that OSU makes the playoff and *loses* to Georgia. That way, when we play UGA, we have some really useful film on UGA from playing a common opponent.
November 29th, 2022 at 8:30 PM ^
It is hard to beat the same team twice. Then again, if Corum is fully healthy and could go all in they really wouldn’t be playing the “same team.”
All in all, I think I would pass on it if I had the choice because 1) I would just would want something different in a matchup, and 2) games v. Ohio State just add a bit of personal anxiety that I already dealt with this year and would not welcome back so soon.
November 29th, 2022 at 8:52 PM ^
Yes, it's going to super hard for OSU to beat the same team twice.
For Michigan to do it wouldn't be that difficult. It's essentially the same thing as beating two very good different teams. It is hard to do, but a lot more likely after you win the first game.
November 30th, 2022 at 3:57 AM ^
> It is hard to beat the same team twice
Not true, just a sophist take with no basis in reality. Whether or not it's a little bit true, we destroyed ohio in columbus, they have no shot if they got two rematches.
November 30th, 2022 at 6:12 AM ^
It is actually very true. It’s why you see so many splits between conference opponents in college basketball.
November 30th, 2022 at 7:55 AM ^
You aee conference splits about 50% of the time because it's statistically expected about 50% of the time before the season even begins. And 50% of the time you dont because it's statistically expected to be a sweep 50% of the time. Not any more or less hard than beating two different teams.
November 30th, 2022 at 8:02 AM ^
https://www.reddit.com/r/CFB/comments/a1m6nk/just_how_hard_is_it_to_beat_the_same_team_twice/
November 30th, 2022 at 6:40 AM ^
Last year, Alabama beat Georgia and then they didn't.
Some years ago, LSU beat Alabama and then they didn't.
Michigan found ways to lose to Appalachia State and Toledo. Bad things can happen to good people.
November 29th, 2022 at 8:31 PM ^
The thought of playing them twice makes me want to puke. See you in November
November 29th, 2022 at 9:49 PM ^
Same here. And of course the loser will want another chance.
Nah. Give em another year to think about it
November 29th, 2022 at 8:33 PM ^
I'm a traditionalist so I'd kinda hate that it was happening but the dam has already been broke by Bama-UGA, ND-Clemson (potentially 3), and way back Bama-LSU and even wayer back UF-FSU.
But Yea i think we'd kick their ass again. Honestly tho losing the game like that is so devastating - think us in 2018 - that i just don't think they'd mentally pick themselves up and win the next one against most top 15 teams right now. I could be wrong but if they folded in the 4th i don't expect they come back inspired for a 13th game even if it is a playoff
November 29th, 2022 at 8:38 PM ^
Disagree. Fully weaponized with JSN and Henderson and new life I think they would play with their hair on fire. The only path I see for them though is Georgia in the first round and I don’t think they could quite climb that mountain.
November 30th, 2022 at 2:30 AM ^
The only path I see for them though is Georgia in the first round
Providing the results this weekend don't shake the standings too much. Hopefully the current standings remain the same. Happy at #2 and meeting TCU in the semi-final, rather than #1 and face a #4 Georgia (if it loses to LSU), USC, or Ohio State in semis.
November 30th, 2022 at 11:58 AM ^
JSN sure, but I don't think Henderson really changes the equation much. I think we would still be helped more by (hopefully) having a fully healthy Corum, Morris, O-Line and TEs
November 29th, 2022 at 9:51 PM ^
Yes the southern teams eagerly soil whatever traditions they had with rematches in NFL stadiums, but I don't know why we always have to repeat all their bad ideas
November 29th, 2022 at 8:34 PM ^
Nope, not right.
Kicked their ass in the Shoe.
They don't deserve a shot at us again. Very hard to beat the same team twice in a year, specifically when you schemed and then executed for that one game all year.
November 29th, 2022 at 8:56 PM ^
They don't deserve it, but who does?
Literally, after the top 4, it's all backdoor candidates. 2 loss Tennessee without their QB? 2 loss bama who should have lost 4 times.
An ass kicking at home by 20+ should DQ you from playing in the playoff, but this is a year where there's no viable candidates, so OSU may fall ass backwards into it if TCU or USC stumble.
If I'm the committee, I'm locking the top 4 as it is and basically saying no one should get penalized for playing an extra game, effectively keeping TCU and USC in the playoff, no matter what.
November 29th, 2022 at 10:08 PM ^
Couldn’t agree more with you. Hypothetically, you’re going to punish TCU for going 12-1 and Ohio State going 11-1, but since TCU lost more recent, they lose their playoff spot… what’s to stop teams from “declining” to play for a conference championship in order to play for a National Championship?
November 30th, 2022 at 9:51 AM ^
Only thing is would osu be mentally prepared to play Michigan again? You saw what they did after preparing a whole year. Their NFL talent is already checked out and theyre ready to go. No way they'd be ready for Michigan, or Georgia for that matter.
November 29th, 2022 at 8:36 PM ^
Of course beating Osu for the championship would be ideal and the ultimate mic drop but losing to them would suuuuuuuuck. I want to enjoy this. ‘Member, Michigan has not lost to Osu in football this decade
November 29th, 2022 at 8:36 PM ^
Not a big fan of rematches in general to be honest for viewing purposes and for the challenge of it.
It could go either way and I don't think Georgia is as good as they were last year.
My guess is they specifically avoided having Georgia and Alabama play in the semis on purpose and they seeded specifically to avoid that. Meaning if Michigan didn't lose to Staee last year and was 13-0, they'd have bumped Cincinnati up to #3 to avoid a rematch the very next game.
November 29th, 2022 at 8:41 PM ^
I am not entirely sure why they wouldn’t want Georgia v Bama in the semis in the Peach Bowl. That would be a hell of a game.
November 29th, 2022 at 8:55 PM ^
Well this year they won't have played each other and could be a good game.
November 29th, 2022 at 8:36 PM ^
I can't decide. On one hand, it would literally be the biggest game in the history of college football. On the other, I'm really enjoying my smugness right now and I'm not sure I'm ready to put it at risk again so soon.
November 29th, 2022 at 8:37 PM ^
Not gonna lie, I periodically fantasize about beating OSU twice in the same year,
My fantasies are usually a little more, shall we say, exotic.
I'm sure it'll happen occasionally once we move to the 12-team playoff, but until then, let them stew in their own shit for another year knowing that they were thoroughly demolished in the 2nd half on Saturday.
November 29th, 2022 at 8:38 PM ^
I fully admit that if the tables were turned, I'd want a rematch. But having the upper hand as we do, a rematch would suck. It would cheapen the regular season win in a "winner takes all" rematch. We would have much more to lose than OSU in that scenario. No thanks.
I'd much rather face Georgia in the final, even if our chance of victory is worse.
November 29th, 2022 at 8:48 PM ^
Yes, when you're the loser you almost have nothing to lose. It's why most wanted a rematch in 2006.
It's hard to beat anyone twice and while Corum may possibly play in that hypothetical game, they'd also almost certainly be fully operational. They're done until their next game a month+ from now. Can fully heal.
Everyone in a CCG has to play another hard fought game and then go into Playoff/Bowl season.
This year in particular it was kind of beneficial to not play in a CCG if you're OSU (removing the loss to UM and all that holds). They just want USC to lose. That's it. Smoked at home by a hobbled Michigan? No problem. See you again in a month and have fun playing another game. Try not to lose or get hurt more.
I have a major issue with that and have documented proof that I'd feel the same if UM lost by 22pts.
November 29th, 2022 at 9:14 PM ^
I do not want a rematch but right now I would bet on a "fully operational" Michigan over a fully operational OSU any day of the week. Their ills will not be cured with healed injuries-it is much deeper than that.
November 30th, 2022 at 2:44 AM ^
If by "fully operational" you mean all the first stringers back, I would agree. But we know Erick All won't be back, and we are not sure about Corum (or even Edwards's hand). And Ohio State's general advantage over most teams (including Michigan) is their depth - whoever goes down gets replaced by 5 stars.
In a rematch the loser of the first game has a big advantage - less to lose, more license to change and do things differently. Yes their ills go deeper, but giving them a second chance, you can bet they will fix some of their problems, be more aggressive on offense and slightly less foolishly aggressive on defense, and we cannot guarantee the outcome of that game - it will be more difficult for Michigan to win.
November 29th, 2022 at 8:40 PM ^
A rematch would diminish the Game. I'm against it in a hypothetical Big Ten title game or in the national championship game. You don't have Christmas Part II on December 28th.
November 30th, 2022 at 3:02 AM ^
Which is another reason I like solutions similar to the one Seth proposed. Use this weekend for all the teams in the conference to play a team they have not played the rest of the season, not just the top two. #1 in the current conference standings plays the highest ranked team they haven't played in the standings (which is Purdue, I believe); #2, (this year Ohio State) plays the highest one remaining they haven't played (Illinois?); #3 Penn State plays Iowa(?); and so on as much as possible.
[FWIW I would further tweak the schedule by making this the 9th game - homefield advantage going to the team higher in the standings - in addition to four home and four away games. That would leave four non-conference games: two against P5 teams, one home, one away; and two more non P5 games. Half the conference would get 8 home games; the other half would get 7.]
November 29th, 2022 at 8:40 PM ^
I said it the other night, play them again and crush their souls. Win the National Championship in front of them. You’ve flipped the rivalry immediately and that matters for recruiting in the next few years. That hurts them and I want it. That just might make up for the past 20 years.
Completely understand this sounds nuts.
November 29th, 2022 at 8:42 PM ^
1) In no way, shape, or form do I want OSU in the CFP. Yes, beating them again in the CFP would be great, but I would rather beat UGA. I don’t like football rematches. It’s one reason I like that we got Purdue. Alas, there probably will be a day we get them in a 12-team CFP…and BTT with no divisions. We could get three times in a month one year soon. (As an aside, I would love to beat MSU in the Final Four.)
2) I have no idea what would happen in a rematch, but it would either be close or we blow them out. We would not get blown out. It’s funny because I think most felt the opposite was true before last Saturday.
November 29th, 2022 at 8:57 PM ^
On that last point, I think too few understand after a game that most games are won and lost due to a few critical moments that can often go either way. In the case of The Game this year, there are a few moments that go UM's way that could have altered the game had they gone the other. OSU isn't a bad team by any means! I don't think they deserve a playoff bid but you cannot say with certainty that UM plays them again and it's definitely not a blowout loss. This isn't counting potential injuries, etc.
For the first time in 20 years I'm not worried about the matchup but OSU with their HBs and JSN? Out West where it's damn near a home game for half their roster?
I'd rather just not do that on a personal basis. From a non-homer view, my take always was that the loser had to lose close to make it and OSU didn't. They lost by 22pts. I can see why Bama was 6 but I don't think USC should be punished for making their CCG, playing the only team to beat them this year (by 1pt).
November 29th, 2022 at 9:04 PM ^
Yes, some bad bounces can change things and spiral it out of control. So, yes, UM could lose by 20 in a rematch. But it feels far less likely than it did, say, around the middle of the 2nd quarter. This is in large part because JJ showed he is a threat. You can’t load up against the run or pass.
November 30th, 2022 at 7:14 PM ^
On that last point, I think too few understand after a game that most games are won and lost due to a few critical moments that can often go either way
Sorry but that's just sophistry. A one score game, of course could be decided by any of the moments where scores occurred. A three touchdown victory simply does not happen by coincidence when played at a high level. If two reverse blowouts occur, it's because the entire games were very different, not because a butterfly flapped its wings in China.