CFP Rankings Speculation

Submitted by lhglrkwg on

Welp. I'm as pissed as anyone but fortunately Michigan still controls its own destiny.

Today was the classic late season, everyone loses Saturday and we thought it would be dull. So with #2 Clemson, #3 Michigan, #4 Washington, "#8" Texas A&M & #9 Auburn all losing what happens Tuesday? Believe it or not, our loss was probably the most respectable of them all with Clemson losing at home to a similar team and Washington lost by double-digits at home to a ranked team.

I have no idea how you sort this out. Do we even drop? I'm guessing

  1. Alabama
  2. Ohio State
  3. Michigan??
  4. Louisville??
  5. Clemson
  6. Washington

It's going to be hard for the committee to justify throwing Louisville past Clemson and all the way up to 3 and no one else can really justify overtaking us but OSU. Is there a shot we stay put with a last second loss on the road at night?

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DenardPeppers

November 13th, 2016 at 12:24 AM ^

Everyone says our SOS sucks but we have beaten 3 teams in the Top 10 if Colorado wins tonight. I assume they will get up there if not top 12. It all comes down to US we control our destiny win and we are in lose and we are out. Thank God Clemson. and Washington and Auburn lost today or we might be out for good.

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I dumped the Dope

November 13th, 2016 at 12:24 AM ^

I think they are CFP material.  But they are locked out of Indy if PSU wins out.

Re: Columbus...if Michigan is firing on all cylinders look out Butt Guys.  If OSU is firing on all cylinders look out Michigan.  If both teams are running "on plane" then its going to be the bounce of a football.

The CFP Committee now has to earn their money.  I think they put in Louisville because Clemson deserved to lose against NC state earlier.

1: Bama

2: OSU

3: Louisville

???? after this.  I don't think M, Wash or Clemson fall too far though.  I don't see Wisc, or ATM or anyone else filling those gaps.

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doggdetroit

November 13th, 2016 at 12:27 AM ^

It depends how they treat head to head results. Michigan beat Wisconsin and Penn State but both of those teams would have beaten Michigan tonight and would probably beat Michigan next week if we're being dead honest. I mean Penn State destroyed Iowa last week. Same thing with Clemson and Lousiville. Clemson won a few weeks ago but if they played right now, Louisville would probably win (even though Louisville looked shaky tonight against Wake Forest). This is my guess as to what the top 8 will look like:

1) Alabama
2) Ohio State
3) Louisville
4) Clemson
5) Michigan
6) Wisconsin
7) Penn State
8) Oklahoma

Also a strange situation is brewing in the B1G East. OSU, which is looking like the clear cut #2 team in the country is poised to be left out of the B1G title game, yet will probably end up as the #2 team in the country and advance to the playoff, should PSU win out (assuming OSU beats Michigan, which is looking like a sure bet right now). Even crazier is that PSU and Wisconsin would probably be playing for the B1G title with a legit shot at the #4 spot in the playoff in this scenario.

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skurnie

November 13th, 2016 at 1:19 AM ^

Agreed and I do realize that. Obviously they have a ton of talent. I just have no idea (and I don't think I'm alone) what 45-24 wins vs ASU, Oregon, Arizona or Cal really means. Notched their second quality win tonight for sure. Either way, Go Buffs.

But hey, A&M was 4 two weeks ago.

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AMazinBlue

November 13th, 2016 at 12:34 AM ^

Their loss IS worse than ours, but they beat Louisville and FSU.  We look like we only play great at home and struggle on the road.  The committee seems to honor head to head results so we stay ahead of of Wisky and PSU unless we lose again.

My guess is OSU buries Sparty next week to cement their place in the top 4 going into The Game.  We have some shit to correct by next Saturday.  Indiana is scrappy.

Don't tell me we'll blow them out, that's what everyone here said about tonight before it went south.

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SBayBlue

November 13th, 2016 at 1:01 AM ^

Yes, they beat Louisville at home, but they haven't beaten another current Top 10 team. A win over Auburn, which just lost and is 7-3. FSU at 5-3? Nearly losing to NC State? Losing to Pitt at home? Our SOS includes wins over Top 10 Colorado, Wisconsin, and Penn State and a last second loss to a mediocre Iowa team, but on the road. So our loss is better than theirs today.  But Clemson's win over Louisville is more impressive I think. Who knows for sure?

I see it as:

1) Bama

2) OSU

3) Clemson (interchangeable at 4)

4) Louisville (lost H2H to Clemson)

5) Michigan

6) Washington

7) Wisconsin

8) Penn State

9) Colorado (only losses to Michigan and USC, a very good team)

10) Oklahoma 

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AMazinBlue

November 13th, 2016 at 12:39 AM ^

They were no better than 69th coming into tonight and then losing at home in their one tough game will hurt them greatly in the polls.  The committee doesn't seem too keen on the PAC-12 or the BIg 12 this year.

We do control our own destiny, but that road looks a lot tougher now after that loss.

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MGoPoints: 7197

Yeoman

November 13th, 2016 at 1:30 AM ^

With a broad definition of "contender", basically anyone that could win a conference championship game and have two losses or fewer:

  • 1 Alabama
  • 3 Wisconsin
  • 11 Ohio State
  • 13 Colorado
  • 16 Penn State
  • 22 Utah
  • 24 Clemson
  • 25 Michigan
  • 27 Wazzoo
  • 28 Washington
  • 29 Nebraska
  • 38 Louisville
  • 54 West Virginia

That's schedule-to-date. He also posts strengths of the entire schdule, including games yet to be played (but obviously not including championship games):

  • 3 Alabama
  • 4 Ohio State
  • 10 Colorado
  • 11 Michigan
  • 12 Wisconsin
  • 13 Wazzoo
  • 19 Utah
  • 24 Washington
  • 25 Penn State
  • 28 Clemson
  • 30 Nebraska
  • 41 Louisville
  • 48 West Virginia

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I Wrote a 4 Wo…

November 13th, 2016 at 12:39 AM ^

Didn't wanna make a new thread for it, but here's this: Assuming PSU beats the 2 worst teams in the conference -- OSU beats Michigan, PSU wins the division. Michigan beats OSU, Michigan wins the division.

MSU somehow pulls off the upset against PSU, winner of Michigan-OSU wins the division (assuming neither loses next week).

Really the only winner from today is Penn State. And the loss only hurts Michigan in that they can't backpedal into the Playoff with a loss to OSU.



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zggolfer

November 13th, 2016 at 12:41 AM ^

but all wiggle room is now gone.  Beat IU and the bucknuts, win the BIG 10 Champ game and let the chips fall where they may.  Doubtful we are kept out of the top 4 with wins over OSU and Wisconsin, and only one loss.  Makes me wonder about all these home games and lack of decent road contests. 

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GoBlueBill

November 13th, 2016 at 12:47 AM ^

I think you are all looking at this with Michigan colored glasses.

How often do the pollsters make sense and have teams ranked properly (remember Texas  A&M being number 4 in the playoff rankings ?) Michigan was behind Clemson...

I hope I am wrong. I dont think Michigan will be ranked better than 6th .

Go Blue

 

 

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KodiakGT

November 13th, 2016 at 2:25 AM ^

I think you're looking at it with "we just lost" colored glasses.  6th is literally the floor for where they can put us.  Current #7 has 2 losses and one of those losses is to us...

  • We have 3 wins over what will be top 10 teams in the upcoming rankings and a bad road loss by 1 point
  • UW has no top ten wins and a home loss to a surging maybe top 15ish USC
  • Clemson has 3 wins over top 15ish teams (with a great win vs Louisville), but a home loss to a top 25ish Pitt and a bunch of close calls against middling teams

Honestly the real challenge for the committee will be where to put Louisville.  Do they drop Clemson below a team they beat when both have 1 loss?  Can they drop us below Louisville when we have 3 top 10 wins and they have 1 top 15ish win?

If they are going by body of work it should probably be Alabama, OSU, Clemson/Us, Lousiville, UW.

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Ty Butterfield

November 13th, 2016 at 12:50 AM ^

Sorry but this team is not beating OSU. Hell, they may not beat Indiana. Indiana has to be licking their chops.

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zggolfer

November 13th, 2016 at 12:58 AM ^

Obviously the plays and the blueprints are out there to gain yards on the Michigan Defense after the last three weeks.  What the hell is Don Brown going to try to do about it.  Unfortunately the offense just came up with a big clunker that had not been seen before.

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