Which Bowl for M? Against Whom?
Things have come into focus since the last CFP ratings were released. It's looking like the Rose or the Peach are the most likely results, despite what the ESPN Bowl Projections say (Fiesta). UCF is essentially blocking Michigan from the Fiesta Bowl right now. So...let's assume the favorites win. Here's how it works this year.
Step 1: The CFP takes the top 4 teams, and will arrange them something like this--Alabama v Oklahoma in the Orange, Clemson v Notre Dame in the Cotton.
Step 2: The Rose and Sugar get their picks, and must use their conference tie-ins. So Ohio State v Washington in the Rose and either Texas or West Virginia (ugh, who do you pick?) v the highest-ranked SEC team in the Sugar. I have Texas v Georgia.
Step 3: The Peach and Fiesta get the top G5 team plus the next 3 highest ranked teams. To me, that's going to be UCF, Michigan, Florida and LSU. Now ordinarily you would say that UCF-Florida in the Peach would be obvious. I disagree--UCF went to the Peach last year, and there is an agreement to keep the G5 team rotating as much as possible so they're not going to the same bowl over and over. So UCF to the Fiesta. Since the 2 SEC teams have to go to 2 different bowls, that puts Michigan in the Peach. Something like this--Michigan v Florida in the Peach and UCF v LSU in the Fiesta.
Do you want Michigan in the Rose against the Washington/Utah winner? Cheer for Texas over Oklahoma. That puts OSU in the top 4 and obligates the Rose to pick the next best Big Ten team.
Do you want Michigan in the Fiesta against Oklahoma? Cheer for Texas and Northwestern; that might get UCF into the top 4.
Do you want Michigan in the Fiesta against Central Florida? Cheer for Georgia; that pushes Georgia into the playoff, Florida to the Sugar and Penn State to the Peach.
November 28th, 2018 at 1:49 PM ^
You’re lying.
November 28th, 2018 at 4:24 PM ^
I would rather have a match up against anyone instead of Florida. Sick of seeing them. UCF would be fun, because it is a new opponent.
November 28th, 2018 at 12:12 PM ^
I agree. UCF needs a team motivated to annihilate it in a bowl. We could be that team.
November 28th, 2018 at 12:45 PM ^
I'm good with that, beating the team with the longest winning streak would be a fine way to end the season.
November 28th, 2018 at 12:34 PM ^
They would just say its because Milton got injured. There is no upside to that game for Michigan. Win and you get no credit because they are without their best player and a g5 team. Lose and you are a laughing stock and UCF keeps on with their annoying shit
November 28th, 2018 at 1:05 PM ^
Win and you get an 11th win for just the third time since 1997 and certainly our best poll finish since at least 2003, possibly since 1999.
There doesn't exist a bowl scenario for Michigan that has zero upside. Our bowl game determines whether this season was the same as 2016 or our best season in nearly two decades.
November 28th, 2018 at 1:14 PM ^
That's nice, but I really feel that nothing matters since we lost to Ohio State.
November 28th, 2018 at 1:30 PM ^
So only 58 Michigan football seasons have mattered? I don't share that opinion.
November 28th, 2018 at 6:25 PM ^
Thanks for fighting the gloom. It's been four days since the game.
We all gotta move forward. I mean, were not dead yet (not the ones posting on this board :-) ).
November 28th, 2018 at 1:23 PM ^
The QBs injury definitely takes the luster off the positive side. But I will loudly congratulate the P5 team that hammers UCF in a bowl. Their shtick is so tired. No, you don't get to make the 4-team playoff. Yes, it's because you're a Group of 5 school. I'm sorry. Your conference schedule makes it an impossibility.
If we decisively beat them, that would be a widely-cheered victory by most Power 5 fans who want that nonsense to go away. People would openly thank Michigan for proving the point UCF has been defiantly unwilling to accept.
Of course, if we lose it'll be the league-wide ridicule of the South Carolina Outback loss times a billion. But there is some upside.
November 28th, 2018 at 1:25 PM ^
I wouldn't mind a chance to shut OK down for many of the same reasons. Could be a chance to show we learned our lesson at OSU, too.
November 28th, 2018 at 2:57 PM ^
I kind of feel like because Milton is hurt it wouldn't shut up anyone. Fans will just say it would have been a different game with him. And to be fair they wouldn't be wrong. Say what you will about UCFs schedule, but that dude could ball. I'm going to be watching no matter what, but I would prefer not to play UCF. Although I guess I would prefer them to Florida again.
This sucks, but I feel like I want OSU in the playoff so we can just play in the Rose. And really hope that Washington doesn't screw up so we can get a classic match up we haven't seen in a long time.
November 29th, 2018 at 8:00 PM ^
Yeah because anyone we played last year said something like it meant less because our starting two QBs were out.
You are what you have, there's no hypothetical fair matchup. Otherwise I'm saying 2017 was pointless because Tom Brady didn't retire and come back for a 5th season and with him we would have owned.
November 28th, 2018 at 11:41 AM ^
From a victory standpoint, I would be fine with anyone but Oklahoma. It would be cool to see those two schools match up, but we would probably just get shredded again.
November 28th, 2018 at 11:44 AM ^
That would be a nightmare matchup. I would love to play LSU or Washington. I think we matchup well with those teams. Florida too but that’s been done before.
November 28th, 2018 at 11:54 AM ^
Can never be to certain but I think that Harbaugh would go out of his way a bit not to repeat the osu debacle against Oklahoma...Michigan-Oklahoma is one of the few potential games where Michigan could earn some measure of redemption for that...
November 28th, 2018 at 12:13 PM ^
Riiiiiiight
November 28th, 2018 at 4:51 PM ^
"Harbaugh would go out of his way a bit not to repeat the OSU debacle against Oklahoma"
Harbaugh is every bit as stubborn as Schembechler was, and no smarter. He won't vary a thing.
November 28th, 2018 at 6:27 PM ^
Agreed. OK is the only team, outside of the top four I wouldn't want to play in a bowl.
November 28th, 2018 at 11:41 AM ^
Dont care where we play as long as we arent playing UCF. That game is a lose, lose, lose, lose proposition for us no matter what happens.
Win big: "Well of course. Poor UCF didnt have their QB, what did you expect? This means nothing. Don't know how good Michigan is because of that."
Win small: "Man, just imagine what the results would've been if UCF had their QB. Michigan must not be very good."
Lose small: "Unbelievable. UCF doesnt have their QB and STILL beats Michigan? Michigan must be bad."
Lose big: "Michigan obviously didnt take UCF seriously in this one. Michigan obviously sucks and was totally overrated all year it seems. I mean UCF didnt even have their QB and they were still able to stomp them????"
November 28th, 2018 at 11:45 AM ^
Well, if Memphis beats UCF this weekend, that eliminates UCF from the Fiesta Bowl and replaces them with (probably) the Boise State v Fresno State winner.
November 28th, 2018 at 11:57 AM ^
This is not a farfetched scenario (Memphis winning). They probably should have won the first time they played UCF but collapsed in the fourth quarter. I know the game is in Orlando but I wouldn't be shocked if the Tigers upset the Milton-less Knights.
Of course this could lead to a similar lose/lose scenario if Michigan ends up playing Boise or Fresno.
November 28th, 2018 at 11:45 AM ^
The obvious scenario to cure your dilemma: let's play UCF and win medium!
But I agree with your assessment. UCF is my least favorite potential bowl matchup. That matchup doesn't stir my loins as much as others.
November 28th, 2018 at 11:52 AM ^
+1 stirring of loins
November 28th, 2018 at 12:51 PM ^
November 28th, 2018 at 11:49 AM ^
Much prefer than UF. UM should go to Citrus instead.
November 28th, 2018 at 11:57 AM ^
Why would you want Michigan to go to a lesser bowl?
November 28th, 2018 at 12:01 PM ^
To not play Florida. Honestly, it won't happen and I understand the reasons, but I would rather see them play in the Citrus Bowl against Mississippi State then to play Florida again. It is a New Years Day game against a team we don't play every other year.
November 28th, 2018 at 12:18 PM ^
Michigan owes Mississippi State payback (or should I say, "revenge") for the last game on the Rich Rod Farewell Tour in 2010. They lost by 38.....it was painful.
November 28th, 2018 at 12:21 PM ^
Nope. I am still not over the pounding Miss. State gave us. Let them, and us, have that forever. We deserve to be scarred for life against them to remember that awful period of time.
November 28th, 2018 at 11:42 AM ^
"At least it's not the Citrus Bowl" was the MMB's not-really-official slogan for the Outback Bowl in 2003.
November 28th, 2018 at 11:44 AM ^
Florida again? Not sure I would want that if I was the selection committee.....
November 28th, 2018 at 11:48 AM ^
Yeah, they could swap Florida & LSU. That would leave M v LSU in the Peach and Florida v UCF in the Fiesta. That wouldn't make any sense geographically, though.
The only possible solution would be to send UCF to the Peach for the second year in a row, and they don't want that at all, even less than they want a Michigan - Florida matchup.
November 28th, 2018 at 11:52 AM ^
It wouldn’t make sense to have a stale matchup like UM-UF.
November 28th, 2018 at 11:44 AM ^
Anywhere with anybody except Florida
November 28th, 2018 at 11:48 AM ^
Agreed, that's a snoozer after so many matchups. However, I could see the "shark fucker faces his old team" narrative being attractive to some brain-dead TV/Bowl person.
November 28th, 2018 at 11:45 AM ^
Ask me again next week.
November 28th, 2018 at 11:47 AM ^
UF-UM is not desirable at all. UM should turn that bowl down if it is Florida.
November 28th, 2018 at 11:52 AM ^
Unless Texas beats Oklahoma, that is what it is going to be. We are going to be playing in the Peach Bowl, against Florida, again, on December 29th at noon.
Let that sink in for a while.
November 28th, 2018 at 11:53 AM ^
Michigan has to turn that game down.
November 28th, 2018 at 11:59 AM ^
I know fans of many teams say this every year, but I don't think it's permitted by the Big Ten to turn down a bowl game any more. They aren't going to let a team leave money on the table like that.
But even if that's not true, I would imagine that the Playoff Committee will remember a snub for a long, long time.
November 28th, 2018 at 12:11 PM ^
If they try to hold a grudge against Michigan they can expect all hell to break loose.
November 28th, 2018 at 12:45 PM ^
Come on.
November 28th, 2018 at 11:48 AM ^
My first choice would be Rose Bowl against Washington..
...pretty indifferent to other scenarios but I do not want to play Florida or UCF
November 28th, 2018 at 11:48 AM ^
You all know damn well where we are. We are in double h, e, hockey sticks.
So it will be the Peach vs Floriduh.
Or UCF.
This is our lot in life.
November 28th, 2018 at 11:54 AM ^
Agree with this this assessment and add the following:
November 28th, 2018 at 11:50 AM ^
Do not want Osu in playoff at all.
I want the Bulldogs.
November 28th, 2018 at 11:51 AM ^
Not that it matters to me anymore, as a Michigan fan, but do they not so closest geographic location of the favorites for the playoff games anymore? Or does Orange get 1st pick?
Anyway, I do not want OSU in the playoffs again, so I’d sacrifice the Rose vs Washington for the Peach against LSU or even Florida (sigh) this year.
November 28th, 2018 at 11:53 AM ^
I’m ok with OSU going to the playoffs. Love to see them get prison sexed by Bama.
November 28th, 2018 at 12:51 PM ^
OSU has the exact type of offense that could beat Alabama.