Which Bowl for M? Against Whom?
Things have come into focus since the last CFP ratings were released. It's looking like the Rose or the Peach are the most likely results, despite what the ESPN Bowl Projections say (Fiesta). UCF is essentially blocking Michigan from the Fiesta Bowl right now. So...let's assume the favorites win. Here's how it works this year.
Step 1: The CFP takes the top 4 teams, and will arrange them something like this--Alabama v Oklahoma in the Orange, Clemson v Notre Dame in the Cotton.
Step 2: The Rose and Sugar get their picks, and must use their conference tie-ins. So Ohio State v Washington in the Rose and either Texas or West Virginia (ugh, who do you pick?) v the highest-ranked SEC team in the Sugar. I have Texas v Georgia.
Step 3: The Peach and Fiesta get the top G5 team plus the next 3 highest ranked teams. To me, that's going to be UCF, Michigan, Florida and LSU. Now ordinarily you would say that UCF-Florida in the Peach would be obvious. I disagree--UCF went to the Peach last year, and there is an agreement to keep the G5 team rotating as much as possible so they're not going to the same bowl over and over. So UCF to the Fiesta. Since the 2 SEC teams have to go to 2 different bowls, that puts Michigan in the Peach. Something like this--Michigan v Florida in the Peach and UCF v LSU in the Fiesta.
Do you want Michigan in the Rose against the Washington/Utah winner? Cheer for Texas over Oklahoma. That puts OSU in the top 4 and obligates the Rose to pick the next best Big Ten team.
Do you want Michigan in the Fiesta against Oklahoma? Cheer for Texas and Northwestern; that might get UCF into the top 4.
Do you want Michigan in the Fiesta against Central Florida? Cheer for Georgia; that pushes Georgia into the playoff, Florida to the Sugar and Penn State to the Peach.
November 28th, 2018 at 11:54 AM ^
It's the closest geographic location unless that gives the #1 team a home field disadvantage. So they won't send Oklahoma to Dallas as a #4 seed. If Ohio State is #4, they would put Alabama v Ohio State in the Cotton Bowl. But if Oklahoma is #4, they would put Alabama v Oklahoma in the Orange Bowl.
Or that's how it was explained when this whole thing started. Maybe I'm wrong.
November 28th, 2018 at 11:51 AM ^
Give me LSU in the peach.
November 28th, 2018 at 11:54 AM ^
Won't happen. The Peach Bowl will draw big from Florida. If we are in the Peach Bowl we are playing Florida for the 25th time in the last five years.
November 28th, 2018 at 11:59 AM ^
They’ll draw big from LSU too. They’ll take a huge hit with UM fans. Ratings will also be low.
UM-UF would be a disastrous matchup from a excitement standpoint. Almost no one wants to see it.
November 28th, 2018 at 12:05 PM ^
Honestly, I don't think they care that much. The NY6 doesn't really draw ratings aside from the Playoff games so as long as they follow their certain rules (UCF not to the same bowl twice in a row) they don't care. They have made no effort to make non Playoff games interesting in terms of matchups at all.
So, I guess the biggest question is - does Florida wear their traditional helmets or their big F helmets? Personally, I'm good either way.
November 28th, 2018 at 11:53 AM ^
I want to play a team that we can beat.
November 28th, 2018 at 11:53 AM ^
Playing Florida again is so boring
November 28th, 2018 at 11:53 AM ^
Would the Sugar have to take a Big 12 team if The Big 12 champ is in the playoffs, and there are no other Big 12 teams with less than 3 losses or in the top 12 of the playoff rankings?
Would the Sugar take an 8-3 West Virginia or 8-4 Texas that lost to a team we beat handily over us?
I think if the favorites win and OU gets the playoff, we get the Sugar against whichever SEC team the Sugar wants (probably Georgia). If OSU gets the playoff, we end up in the Rose.
November 28th, 2018 at 11:56 AM ^
Yes, the Sugar and the Rose are both obligated to select a team from their conference tie-ins. The conference champion if available, and the "best team" to if the champion is in the top 4. So if Oklahoma is in the playoff, the Sugar has no choice but to select either Texas or West Virginia.
November 28th, 2018 at 11:56 AM ^
You forgot the scenario in which Clemson, Georgia, Oklahoma, Ohio State and UCF all lose this week. Michigan goes to the playoff, destroys Alabama and whoever is left, and wins the motherfucking national championship.
November 28th, 2018 at 11:59 AM ^
I don't want OSU in the playoff. Fuck them.
November 28th, 2018 at 12:02 PM ^
I want to play Georgia.
November 28th, 2018 at 12:02 PM ^
I'd rather play UCF. Just to shut up their fanbase.
November 28th, 2018 at 12:05 PM ^
Another UM - UF matchup?
Wow, how ever so exciting.
November 28th, 2018 at 12:07 PM ^
“Cheering” for OSU to make the playoffs because I really want the Rose Bowl. Uggh.
Also, if OSU destroys Northwestern, that might make me feel a little better that they finally “woke up” and are in fact really good. As crazy as it may sound to some people, I’d prefer that to the alternative that we got hammered by a bad OSU team because we are such a mess.
November 28th, 2018 at 12:32 PM ^
We're likely in the extreme minority, but I'm with you on this. Would really love a chance to see our boys play in the Rose Bowl. An ideal game time on New Year's Day for viewing. Classic Pac 12 matchup. The other options appear almost nauseating to me in terms of spin cycle boredom. The Peach Bowl at noon on the 29th (a hardcore 10:00 am Mountain - guh)? No thanks. Another tiresome bowl matchup with Florida? Pass. A zero-to-gain matchup with UCF? Ugh. I'd happily settle for a Fiesta Bowl bid vs. LSU, but that is seeming increasingly unlikely. Can't wait for Sunday evening for all of this to be officially announced.
In light of various game times, at least things will be relatively settled by kickoff in Indy, since I don't wish to be pulling for the bucknuts in any way/shape/form.
November 28th, 2018 at 1:09 PM ^
I agree.
OSU winning close or losing to Northwestern makes us look even worse. IF that happened, that would put the total at 7 B1G teams which played OSU close this year, with one of those teams getting the win.
Versus us with our epic prime time meltdown blowout loss.
And I would love to see us in the Rose Bowl vs Washington.
November 28th, 2018 at 12:07 PM ^
CFP vs. Alabama after Georgia, Oklahoma, and OSU all lose.
November 28th, 2018 at 12:39 PM ^
Longest of shots ...
November 28th, 2018 at 1:10 PM ^
Ah, the moonshot. Georgia probably will lose and Oklahoma definitely could. A Northwestern win would certainly have pros and cons: improves the quality of one of our ranked wins, raises a big WTF about 62-39 blowout. I think Michigan outranks 2 loss Georgia (depending on how bad Bama puts the hurt on), Oklahoma, and OSU. Committee never putting UCF in, lol.
November 28th, 2018 at 12:17 PM ^
Matchups against either Florida or UCF do not excite me one bit. Please give me Washington, LSU, or Georgia.
November 28th, 2018 at 12:22 PM ^
I would like anyone but UCF. I just get the feeling that is a lose/lose.
November 28th, 2018 at 12:22 PM ^
PEACH!!! For selfish reasons. I live outside of Atlanta..
November 28th, 2018 at 12:24 PM ^
Whatever screws OSU the most
Oklahoma taking their "deserved top 4 spot" would be hilarious. Also MSU would be bumped down to the Music City Weedeater Helicopter Bowl. If that means we don't play in the Rose Bowl I'm good with that.
November 28th, 2018 at 12:24 PM ^
The Peach at noon on the 29th would suck ... we would be like the warm-up band to the main attraction (the CFP that day). And Michigan playing Florida yet again would be very boring.
I will be cheering for Texas so (1) Michigan heads to the Rose Bowl and (2) we get to witness Alabama shred OSU to a bloody pulp in the CFP.
November 28th, 2018 at 12:25 PM ^
I'd love to finish the season watching Michigan shut UCF up. Can't see how anyone wouldn't want that.
November 28th, 2018 at 1:01 PM ^
Except Milton is hurt, so no one would care.
November 28th, 2018 at 12:33 PM ^
I know one thing, Michigan would be way more amped up to play UCF than they would against UF. UF would be an awful, boring game and would not have much interest.
People saying UCF is a lose/lose have a point, but I look at it as a chance for Michigan to shut them up and do something Auburn couldn’t do. Yes the QB is out, so they may not even win this weekend, but I would rather UM play anyone other than UF for the 82882 time.
November 28th, 2018 at 12:37 PM ^
LSU, please.
November 28th, 2018 at 12:40 PM ^
If the BTCG goes how I think its going to go, then I think OSU is in the playoff unless Oklahoma takes Texas to the woodshed as well. I know the loss to Purdue still lingers, but so did the loss to a bad VaTech team, and that didn't seem to bother the committee much. OSU has shown what they can do as a complete team, and it was against what was the #4 team in America. Oklahoma, to date, has still shown that they're all offense and no defense. That works fine in the Big XII where no one plays defense and you can outscore teams better than anyone else. But it's not going to work against Alabama, who can score just as much as you, and who also plays ferocious defense. On top of that, I think the committee would kill for another Saban-Meyer matchup.
So....my guess is we end up in the Rose Bowl against probably Washington. I just don't want to go to the Peach Bowl and see Michigan play Florida for the third time in four years. That matchup is so stale at this point. If you said before the season that it would end with us in Pasadena, most of us would've taken that no questions asked.
November 28th, 2018 at 12:42 PM ^
I want to play Georgia in the Peach, but that doesn't sound likely.
November 28th, 2018 at 12:45 PM ^
Assuming favorites win this weekend, Michigan will have taken away two CFP appearances from OSU, that they were cheering against Michigan when they happened.
1) Fumbled snap on the punt, if it doesn't happen, they go over MSU in 2015.
2) Michigan vs. ND. If Michigan wins that game, ND is probably #7 behind us at #6 right now, and OSU would control their own destiny assuming Alabama wins.
November 28th, 2018 at 5:57 PM ^
I'd prefer to take away play-off appearances the old-fashioned way-- by pummeling them on the field.
November 28th, 2018 at 12:45 PM ^
if osu gets into the playoffs... the term "entire body of work" needs to be banished from playoff committee language forever.
November 28th, 2018 at 12:55 PM ^
Thought it was sorta interesting. The organizers for the Belk Bowl are on reddit asking the fans who they should select.
November 28th, 2018 at 12:56 PM ^
I would love to play Georgia even if it is unlikely
November 28th, 2018 at 12:57 PM ^
I cannot get excited about another matchup with UF or a Milton-less UCF, so I guess I'm rooting for UM v LSU
November 28th, 2018 at 12:59 PM ^
1. Rose bowl against Washington.
2. Georgia/ LSU
3. Florida/UCF
November 28th, 2018 at 1:01 PM ^
I am going for whatever makes us not play Florida (again). UCF barely beat Memphis with Milton so I can easily see them losing which would likely lead to us playing Boise State (if they win). However, I would much rather play LSU or Washington.
November 28th, 2018 at 1:07 PM ^
Here's your rooting guide:
If you want Michigan to play Florida in the Peach Bowl:
Root for chalk. This likely sends Oklahoma to the CFP, OSU to the Rose, and Michigan to the Peach.
If you want Michigan to play Washington/Utah in the Rose Bowl:
Root for Texas, Ohio State, and Alabama (try not to gag). This sends OSU to the playoff and Michigan into the Rose.
If you want Michigan to play UCF/Boise St./Fresno St. in the Fiesta Bowl:
Root for Georgia and Northwestern. Alabama and Georgia would likely go into the CFP. Northwestern would go to the Rose. OSU probably gets Florida in the Peach. Michigan heads to the desert against the G5 team.
If you want Michigan to play Alabama in the Cotton Bowl and make the CFP:
Root for Alabama, Northwestern, Texas, Utah, and Memphis.
Not that even in this scenario could I envision Michigan getting in, but they'd have the two best losses of any 2-loss team. Washington could theoretically get in at 10-3 with a Pac-12 title, but Texas and Utah aren't/ jumping from the teens to the Top 4. Maybe Georgia still gets in? But, then the committee would have a SEC Championship rematch in the CFP semis? Can't see it. Also, Michigan would create the most HAWT TAKES.
November 28th, 2018 at 1:12 PM ^
I don't care what happens as long as we aren't playing UCF. I have a bad feeling about whatever bowl we play in given how Saturday ended. I think we'll be without some guys on D that are heading to the NFL and it will be hard to get the rest up to play in a meaningless bowl against UCF. Has embarrassment written all over it.
November 28th, 2018 at 1:18 PM ^
I'm rooting for Texas. I hate Ohio and all but the Rose Bowl is the Rose Bowl. And also I always thought burnt orange looks nice.
November 28th, 2018 at 1:32 PM ^
Please no Florida! Anyone anywhere, so long as it's not UF.
Hell, I'd rather play South Carolina again.
November 28th, 2018 at 1:34 PM ^
It will always be too soon for crossing route jokes.
November 28th, 2018 at 1:35 PM ^
After last Saturday and my recent discovery of what BPONE means, I don’t really care all that much about which bowl Michigan plays in. Heck, if a miracle happens and Pat Fitzgerald proves why he’s the Big Ten Coach of the Year so that Northwestern upsets Ohio State, then if Michigan goes to the Holiday Bowl in San Diego against the third-best team from the Pac-12*, that’d be fine too. Just as long as Michigan wins the game.
* According to the Big Ten website, in order of their selection of Big Ten teams:
(1) The Citrus Bowl has to have at least five different Big Ten schools within a six-year period. The 2015 Michigan team played there on January 1, 2016. The only other Big Ten teams to have played there since the 2012 season are Nebraska, Wisconsin and Minnesota. This year, the Citrus Bowl has to take a Big Ten team other than Michigan.
(2) The Outback Bowl also has to have at least five different Big Ten schools within a six-year period. Michigan played in the Outback Bowl on January 1, 2013 and January 1, 2018. The only other Big Ten teams to have played there since the 2012 season are Iowa, Wisconsin and Northwestern. This year, the Outback Bowl has to take a Big Ten team other than Michigan.
(3) The Holiday Bowl also has to have at least five different Big Ten schools within a six-year period. Michigan last played in the Holiday Bowl in 1994.
November 28th, 2018 at 1:40 PM ^
Were not going to any of those games.
November 28th, 2018 at 1:45 PM ^
I prefer Holiday over Peach vs UF.
November 28th, 2018 at 4:53 PM ^
There is, I suppose an off chance that we could end up in the Holiday.
If Pitt, Northwestern, Georgia, and Texas win that would probably mean...
CFP (4 spots) - Clemson, Georgia, Bama, ND
Rose (2 spots) - Northwestern + Washington/Utah
Sugar (2 spots) - Texas vs Florida
Fiesta/Peach (4 spots) - Pitt (guaranteed as a P5 Champion), UCF or Boise/Fresno (G5), and then 2 spots would be available for Oklahoma, Ohio State, Michigan, and LSU. You might see a Pitt vs G5 in the Fiesta and then Oklahoma vs OSU in the Peach?
November 28th, 2018 at 1:35 PM ^
Well, I live in AZ so that will rule out the Fiesta...
November 28th, 2018 at 1:57 PM ^
Everything will likely be chalk this weekend save maybe OU-UT going to a shootout, so UM to play...Florida, I guess? Yippee!