Which Bowl for M? Against Whom?
Things have come into focus since the last CFP ratings were released. It's looking like the Rose or the Peach are the most likely results, despite what the ESPN Bowl Projections say (Fiesta). UCF is essentially blocking Michigan from the Fiesta Bowl right now. So...let's assume the favorites win. Here's how it works this year.
Step 1: The CFP takes the top 4 teams, and will arrange them something like this--Alabama v Oklahoma in the Orange, Clemson v Notre Dame in the Cotton.
Step 2: The Rose and Sugar get their picks, and must use their conference tie-ins. So Ohio State v Washington in the Rose and either Texas or West Virginia (ugh, who do you pick?) v the highest-ranked SEC team in the Sugar. I have Texas v Georgia.
Step 3: The Peach and Fiesta get the top G5 team plus the next 3 highest ranked teams. To me, that's going to be UCF, Michigan, Florida and LSU. Now ordinarily you would say that UCF-Florida in the Peach would be obvious. I disagree--UCF went to the Peach last year, and there is an agreement to keep the G5 team rotating as much as possible so they're not going to the same bowl over and over. So UCF to the Fiesta. Since the 2 SEC teams have to go to 2 different bowls, that puts Michigan in the Peach. Something like this--Michigan v Florida in the Peach and UCF v LSU in the Fiesta.
Do you want Michigan in the Rose against the Washington/Utah winner? Cheer for Texas over Oklahoma. That puts OSU in the top 4 and obligates the Rose to pick the next best Big Ten team.
Do you want Michigan in the Fiesta against Oklahoma? Cheer for Texas and Northwestern; that might get UCF into the top 4.
Do you want Michigan in the Fiesta against Central Florida? Cheer for Georgia; that pushes Georgia into the playoff, Florida to the Sugar and Penn State to the Peach.
November 28th, 2018 at 2:03 PM ^
Central Florida runs a VERY quick, hurry-up offense, with very little time between snaps. Not sure I want ANY of that action.
November 28th, 2018 at 2:14 PM ^
Whoever we play, I hope we come out pissed off and show the nation how good this team really is. Unfortunately, some folks here have shut it down for the season as fans (shame on you), but if you care about recruiting and setting up this team for next year, you'll be rooting just as hard for Meeechigan at whatever bowl game they play.
GO BLUE!!
November 28th, 2018 at 3:18 PM ^
Fucking coaches shut down. Yell at them.
November 28th, 2018 at 2:29 PM ^
Fiesta Bowl against Oklahoma. I know our D just got destroyed against Ohio St. but something tells me Don Brown will not allow two beatdowns in a row. It's an opportunity for a great win that can serve as a catapult into next season.
November 28th, 2018 at 2:31 PM ^
Anyone but Florida. Anyone
November 28th, 2018 at 2:32 PM ^
It’s so hard to care anymore after having our sights on the B1GCG and playoffs all season
November 28th, 2018 at 2:35 PM ^
The one shame in all of this is that Michigan and LSU have never played. I believe that is is one of the highest rated games in terms of teams that have the most wins in CFB history who have never faced each other. Michigan/LSU would at least be interesting and different, but it looks like it's not going to happen.
November 28th, 2018 at 3:13 PM ^
Which scenario puts us in a time machine and gives us one more crack at last Saturday?
November 28th, 2018 at 3:15 PM ^
Michigan vs Florida. Should know how to go 11-2 from that.
November 28th, 2018 at 3:39 PM ^
why must we always play florida? just keeps getting worst
November 28th, 2018 at 4:15 PM ^
I want Michigan to beat OSU. I could care less who we play otherwise as long as we clobber them.
November 28th, 2018 at 4:26 PM ^
- Georgia beats Alabama in a close game.
- Alabama gets selected as the 4th team in over Oklahoma and OSU.
- OSU vs. Washington/Utah in the Rose Bowl
- Oklahoma vs. Florida in the Sugar Bowl
- Top ranked teams not in bowls: Michigan, UCF, LSU, and Penn State
- Michigan vs. LSU in the Fiesta Bowl
- UCF vs. Penn State in the Peach Bowl
Has the added bonus of having 1-loss OSU, 1-loss Oklahoma, and undefeated UCF get left out of the CFP, leading to a 6- or 8-team playoff in 2020.
November 29th, 2018 at 9:27 AM ^
Because UCF was in the Peach Bowl last year, the rules say that they won't send them there this year. If this scenario happened, the Fiesta Bowl would be Michigan v UCF and the Peach Bowl would be PSU v LSU. (PSU can't go to the Fiesta Bowl for the same reason that UCF can't go to the Peach).
November 28th, 2018 at 4:26 PM ^
Well, I wouldn't want the UCF scenario - it's not the same when you can't tell Scott Frost that you're impressed that he outhit you.
November 28th, 2018 at 5:42 PM ^
Why can't Florida play UCF in the Fiesta? It would be a fun "in-state" matchup where all their fans could go visit the "other" spring-training-sunshine state?
It it's UM-Florida in the Peach I'm going to be pissed. If it's UM-LSU I will attend.
November 28th, 2018 at 9:09 PM ^
This analysis really places a lot of weight on the agreement to keep the G5 school rotating between bowls.
I would like to think that that would not be the overriding consideration, and that if they can get two great matchups (Florida vs. UCF would be well attended and interesting to those living in that part of the country, whilst the first ever meeting between Michigan and LSU would be a national draw), they'll choose to do that, and just make sure they don't send the G5 to the Peach Bowl next year.
If it's Boise St. or someone else representing the G5, then there's not such a compelling matchup vs. Florida, and maybe the priority of rotating the G5 bowl is the deciding factor. So, maybe root for UCF for the best chance at getting a classic matchup vs. LSU?
(Also, I think LSU is a good matchup for Michigan. They're not an explosive offense, and a few teams have had success against their defense, so with a month to prepare you'd like to believe Harbaugh could install something just for them. Also, Michigan fans could get some satisfaction out of beating Joe Burrow, who a lot of Ohio State fans have been following and rooting for this year.)
November 29th, 2018 at 4:59 AM ^
Harbaugh isn't doing shit to change a goddamn thing.
November 29th, 2018 at 9:36 AM ^
For UCF, it's not so much the G5 spot in general but the UCF team in particular that needs to be rotated. UCF went to the Peach Bowl last year. Bowls do not want the same team twice in a row, especially if that team is not much of a television draw.
Everything I have heard about the NY6 bowl placement process is that they try not to put a team in the same bowl two years in a row. Obviously in the case of automatic conference tie-ins or a bowl hosting a CFP semifinal those rules are out the window, but neither of those cases apply here.
I am very confident that UCF will not be sent to the Peach Bowl. If Penn State manages to make the top 12, I am very confident that they will not be sent to the Fiesta Bowl. The committee will barely be aware that Michigan and Florida played a regular season game against each other last year. They might take that into account, but they will also take into account Gainesville's proximity to Atlanta.
November 29th, 2018 at 8:08 PM ^
I strongly believe the bowl selection committee will put us against ucf (unless Oklahoma loses) due to national interest in the outcome along with our large traveling fan base. It would be Ucf vs LSU but they already played an overrated sec team last year and that didn't go so well.
They will likely also try to avoid b1g vs sec or acc pairings as that would expose the obvious acc/sec bias. It's fine if the B1G goes mostly undefeated against other conferences, but not the south/Atlantic.