Big 10 Holds Drawn Per Play vs Sack rating. Michigan is an Extreme Outlier.
Taken from Reddit: https://www.reddit.com/r/CFB/comments/9kr0kn/b10_holds_drawn_per_play_v…
October 2nd, 2018 at 1:13 PM ^
I analyzed both. It doesn’t equalize things. I only included accepted holding in initial graph because I felt like in full “conspiracy mode”; refs might call the ones that they know are getting declined.
October 2nd, 2018 at 12:29 PM ^
Note that this includes a year prior to the Harbaugh era.
October 2nd, 2018 at 1:14 PM ^
That honestly just clicked yesterday when I was looking at the graph again. Woomph! If I go back to 2012 it would likely look worse. That is when this “trend” against Michigan started.
October 2nd, 2018 at 12:30 PM ^
if you think there is not something weird going on against michigan when it comes to officiating, you are blind. this is not just a homer view. every game there have been at least 2 or 3 penalties that leave you shaking your head .not only was higdons penalty a joke , bordering on criminal. look at garys hand to face penalty. he is being held and pulled around the qb as his hand grazes the qb. not even close.
October 2nd, 2018 at 12:32 PM ^
I am quite convinced Mo Hurst got held on every play last year. he was unblockable even by a double team without being held. Have you seen him in the NFL this year? Tearing it up at the next level too.
October 2nd, 2018 at 1:49 PM ^
You may be right about Hurst. PFF agrees.
October 2nd, 2018 at 12:33 PM ^
Maybe karma finally catches up and Michigan gets the needed calls against MSU & OSU???
October 2nd, 2018 at 12:46 PM ^
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
Texas got jokes!
October 2nd, 2018 at 1:05 PM ^
Sadly most insecure bottom feeders peacock even more when you hold up a mirror, I’d anticipate more of the same if not routine sidline penalties on coach for trying to point out these no calls. I’ve yet to see different from the majority involved in the league.
October 2nd, 2018 at 12:48 PM ^
The most effective way for officials to be biased is not really by making questionable calls, but with non-calls. Keep the flag in the pocket on almost all holds.
October 2nd, 2018 at 1:16 PM ^
This was precisely my theory, and why I did this specific analysis. I analyzed other types of penalties too, but this is the most glaring.
October 2nd, 2018 at 12:30 PM ^
So they are the best sacking D Line by a comfortable margin, yet never get held. Seems right. Maybe they are too good to be held.
October 2nd, 2018 at 2:25 PM ^
For 2017:
Adjusted Sack Rate:
1) Clemson
2) Michigan
Holds called against opponent:
Clemson - 5 holding calls in 14 games
Michigan - 8 holding calls in 13 games.
October 2nd, 2018 at 2:50 PM ^
Well that seems kinda fucky.
October 2nd, 2018 at 12:30 PM ^
The fact that OSU gets the most favorable holding calls (except for MINN LOL) and UM is infinite standard deviations below the norm makes me upset.
October 2nd, 2018 at 1:42 PM ^
October 2nd, 2018 at 12:31 PM ^
One possible explanation--defense is so good that the offenses don't have the chance to hold.
October 2nd, 2018 at 12:37 PM ^
Have you watched any of our games?? Our DL get the absolute shit held out of them the entire game! I can't even tell you how many times on Saturday I would see an insane blatant hold against UM and yet no call. Boggling. Truly boggling.
October 2nd, 2018 at 2:43 PM ^
Someone HAS to get this data to Warde.
October 2nd, 2018 at 12:49 PM ^
No way.
Not like OSU has a terrible D-line. Yet, look at the holding calls they draw.
October 2nd, 2018 at 12:31 PM ^
When I'm in a meeting and see a chart with an outlier like that, my typical response is "Well, crap."
October 2nd, 2018 at 12:33 PM ^
This evidence is damning. There is no reason other than refs hating Harbaugh/Michigan that this should be the case after 3 years of sample size.
October 2nd, 2018 at 1:12 PM ^
Fact is Jim is not a “good ol boy”. Unlike Dantonio and Meyer who clearly fit that narrative.
October 2nd, 2018 at 3:13 PM ^
I strongly believe this is an an ANTI-Harbaugh thing ... and Delaney is complicit with his lack of discussion. This is illustrated by Harbaugh getting an unsportsmanlike penalty in THE Game for throwing his clipboard vs. Meyer who was on the field most of last year's game and even went out to the hashmarks during the game and received a "sideline" warning. WTF No need to even mention 2016 ... and now it is game after game after game. I screamed at the ref last week as soon as the hanky left his pocket ... which is when Shea was already in the clear 10 yards up the field. I am certain that the entire NW bench was yelling "holding" - but there was NO holding, so the ref just made up a number of the player to call it on ... and that ref should come clean, or LOSE his job as a ref.
Go Blue!
October 2nd, 2018 at 12:37 PM ^
I'm curious what a similar chart would look like for the SEC, B12, PAC12, etc conferences with Michigan as part of the chart.
October 2nd, 2018 at 1:36 PM ^
They have outliers too - Alabama, Virginia Tech, etc. - but I only care about how Michigan is slighted!
October 2nd, 2018 at 3:23 PM ^
Hmm, I wonder if Michigan would be on the far outlier in the other conferences too, i.e. more than Alabama or VT.
October 2nd, 2018 at 3:50 PM ^
Depends how you cut it (accepted or all, etc.) but Michigan, Alabama, Clemson has a cluster of “we get screwed” far and above everyone else.
October 2nd, 2018 at 12:38 PM ^
Honestly, we really should be raising hold hell about this with the league offices. And if no action is taken, make it public and just pay whatever fines they want to levy against us.
Or just say fuck it and go independent.
October 2nd, 2018 at 12:42 PM ^
There is a poster on the 247 board that posted an email he is sending to Warde Manuel.
October 2nd, 2018 at 12:55 PM ^
That's fine and all, but maybe he should salt the message in Warde's front lawn instead.
October 2nd, 2018 at 1:46 PM ^
I shared visual with John Bacon and a member of the football team last Spring. I assume Harbaugh knows about it.
October 2nd, 2018 at 12:39 PM ^
Pfff... math. Who needs that?
/all OSU football players.
October 2nd, 2018 at 12:42 PM ^
Complete your civic duty to forward these charts:
[email protected] (Head of Officiating)
[email protected] (Commissioner)
October 2nd, 2018 at 1:12 PM ^
done
October 2nd, 2018 at 1:16 PM ^
Nice but all our emails will mean nothing. What needs to happen...what HAS to happen....is our jovial, great guy to have a beer with Athletic Director who is good, good friends with the other ADs, Delaney and the B1G officials needs to grow a fucking pair AND STAND UP FOR OUR SCHOOL FOR FUCKING ONCE.
Damn it Warde. Sack up and get mad. Get mad as hell at the league who is absolutely FUCKING OVER your football team and our Head Coach cause they dont like him. Stand up for him like Don Canham did for Bo back in 73. Be loud, go public, dont let this obvious screw job go on in silence and in secret.
I have a hint for you Warde - it's NOT going to go away on it's own. This is going to continue until you throw the light on and all the cockroaches run for cover. Math wins here - there's no possible explanation for this or the other data on holding other than "our league officials dislike our head coach and team intensely and are trying to screw them every chance they get.
October 2nd, 2018 at 1:48 PM ^
October 2nd, 2018 at 12:42 PM ^
Sorry if I'm being obtuse, but does this mean holding called against our offense or holding called against the offense opposing us?
October 2nd, 2018 at 12:45 PM ^
holding called against the opposing offense.
October 2nd, 2018 at 12:48 PM ^
Against the offense opposing us... These would be holds against the OL when Michigan's defense is on the field.
October 2nd, 2018 at 12:46 PM ^
The metrics are a little weird--it took me a minute to figure out why there was an overall negative relationship. You'd think that the better your DL was, the more sacks and holds you would get, and vice versa; hence, a positive relationship.
Then I figured out what the y-axis meant.
Pretty incredible visualization.
October 2nd, 2018 at 1:35 PM ^
Yeah, me too. Right, my thought, too. More sacks should lead to more holds. This blows!
October 2nd, 2018 at 12:50 PM ^
This is insane.
October 2nd, 2018 at 12:51 PM ^
This is egregious. But we'll never hear anything about anything being done to fix it. I would be very interested in seeing the same charts for the other conferences, also. I bet everything looks normal and that Michigan would still be an outlier when placed on those other graphs.
October 2nd, 2018 at 12:53 PM ^
Why can't this be brought upto the athletic department? Direct tweet at Big10. Bring news media for this. Such garbage.
Not a day goes by that I don't hate B1G admins and Delaney.
October 2nd, 2018 at 12:54 PM ^
Part of me wonders if this can partially be explained by the fact that our D-lines have been so good for so long that people are just getting the ball out quick and not letting their QBs sit back long enough to draw a hold
OTOH, MSU, Wisconsin, and OSU (and probably others) have all had some great lines recently and they're way closer to the average so this remains nuts
October 2nd, 2018 at 1:16 PM ^
The other teams are holding the ball just long enough to get sacked, but not long enough for holding to occur. But, holding normally occurs as someone is getting free to get a sack.
October 2nd, 2018 at 1:53 PM ^
I agree this is egregious and should be brought to the attention of our own AD and to the Big Ten generally. However, before we do I think it’s important to anticipate and rule out other likely explanations first.
Its the difference between being taken as wild eyed kooks versus being taken seriously.
I am skeptical of this explanation, but some of the Reddit users did make a credible case that this could also be due to the WAY we create sacks. One would think that the longer a play goes on & the more players who are being directly engaged by blockers, the higher the risk is that a joke takes place.
I’m no defensive guru, but it does seem to me that the way Don Brown generates a lot of our sacks is by sending extra blitzers off the edge and through gaps at high speed, and doing stunts to increase the odds that guys are coming free into the backfield largely untouched. To me, it seems like those situations would have less opportunity for a player to commit holding as opposed to just 3-4 strong/talented DL bull rushing & engaging OL to collapse a pocket.
Now, whether we do that far more than the other strong sack rate teams, or whether that DOES in fact reduce the opportunity for holding to take place, I don’t know. Maybe it does a lot. Maybe it doesn’t. Maybe it mitigates the outlier somewhat but it is still a significantly significant outlier when one factors all KR that into the analysis.
The hard part would be to get the underlying data & to quantify it. One person suggested also plotting the average number of rushers defenses use on passing downs to see if there is a clear correlation.