Confidence levels on remaining games

I agree with your thoughts almost exactly. My only difference is MSU. We have more talent than they do at almost every position. Yes, road game in a hostile environment (and likely at night) but I think that we really are holding back portions of the playbook to unleash against them this year. Harbaugh knows that the narrative of losing to our rivals is hurting the program both with fans and with recruits. He knows that a road win against Sparty would go a long way, and I suspect that he will be treating this game as, if not our super bowl, our NFC/AFC championship game. Confidence level = 6 for me.

In “Preview: MSU” terms:  Confidence Leve 6/10: Baseline 5; +1 for lost to Herm Edwards, +1 for struggled against Utah State and CMU, -1 for but this really is their super bowl, -1 for night game, -1 for on the road against a decent opponent, +1 for but we really are the more talented team, +1 for MSU will be coming off of what will likely be a hard fought game against PSU

Agreed pretty much to a t with the OP.

Maryland - Big win (5-1 ranked around 12)

Wisconsin - Close win (6-1 move up to 10)

MSU - Close loss (6-2 move back to 15)

Penn State - Close win (7-2 move up to 12)

Rutgers - Huge win (8-2 no change at 12)

Indiana - Closer win than expected (9-2 no change at 12)

OSU - Close loss (9-3 move back to 16)

It's what I predicted at the start of the year and the season is absolutely unfolding as I thought it would.  And I could flip-flop the PSU/MSU games (I said we'd win one and lose one) and we'll still end up 9-3.

MSU might be that low, but not PSU. Michigan will have a bye week right before Rutgers, and my guess is that the team won't be spending that time on Rutgers. Both PSU and OSU look like there are issues with the defense. For this reason, I also think that OSU should be higher. 5 range, maybe. 

Believe it or not, besides the big teams, I'm kinda concerned about Maryland. They have a bye week in a game where Michigan is easily looking ahead to Wisco. Look to see how Texas fared when you want to evaluate Maryland when they prepare for you.

Maryland - 8

Wisconsin - 6

MSU - 7.5

PSU - 5

Rutgers - 10

IU - 8.5

OSU - 4

I think we are going to roll Wisconsin hard. I'm 9% CONFIDENT. 

Maryland: 8 - They don't have 1/2 of their 2 headed RB duo. OL has had some injuries as well but look to be getting back to it. Their offense in general is not really built to beat Michigan. They try to spread it out but Michigan has adapted to that and capable of stopping it because they can't threaten the pass consistently nor run downhill enough. Their defense might be slightly better than normal but still not battering proof.

Wisconsin: 7 - Home so I give it an extra point. Not built to blow out good/athletic teams. They don't have their best WR anymore and their defense had to replace so much that they're still behind in the process. My biggest concern is the DTs holding up and the OL keeping Patterson's head attached to his body. In any event, the game will come down to 3-10 points.

MSU: 4 - Away so I take a point off. Their defense is not going to let Higdon get going and at this point I still don't know if Michigan has the plays to make their secondary pay or if Michigan is going to just bang their head against a wall for 3 1/2 quarters. Offensively their OL isn't good and they can't run, but they have 2-3 good WRs and the secondary has not been great this year. Plus, they'll pull some voodoo shit like always.

PSU: 4 - Home so I give Michigan an extra point at the end of a terrible 3 game stretch. Offense is going to put up points. They're the opposite of Wisconsin and can go off at any point and blow people out. Their defense isn't good though but again, can Michigan make them pay or are they going to go with 2 TEs and slow roll the whole thing?

Rutgers: 10 - Cumong

Indiana: 8 - I honestly don't think DeBord and Co. are CHAOS team anymore.

OSU: 3 - They aren't as lethal on the ground and aren't guaranteed to bludgeon teams to convert 3 and less than 5 consistently. However, they have the athletes on the outside and a QB who can actually use them now which is something we haven't seen since... 2014 or 2015? Defensively they aren't as solid but their DL is still >>>>> Michigan's OL.

At any rate, Michigan can't fall behind any of the teams left on the schedule like they did ND or NW (sans Rutgers and Illinois). Anything more than a 10 point deficit won't be made up consistently.

I am still confident that we will win the games we should (Mary, Rut, IU), not at all confident we can beat PSU or OSU.  I am confident we can play with MSU & Wiscy, but would call them coin flip games.  MSU on the road is guranteed to give us fits, even if we're a better team.  Wiscy as home should go either way.  If we find a win to win those two, take care of who we should take care of, and lose to PSU & OSU I'd call that a successful, albeit somewhat annoying, regular season at 9-3.  The exact same record, but with a win against OSU and/or PSU sounds a lot better because it means we can compete with top teams, but after watching those two play each other I am not confident we can play with them. 

We'll beat Michigan State. People calling for a loss there are beaten down by Sparty.

We will struggle to a certain degree with everyone but Rutgers who is Nebraska with an R on the helmet.  Defense will give us an opportunity to beat 2 of Wisky/PSU or MSU but they won't be pretty games.  I don't expect to beat Maryland by more than 10 or 14 points and have any of you watched an Indiana/Michigan game the last few years?

Our trip to Columbus is a wildcard, we've had great game plans and effort, but a beaten down Michigan team with 3 or 4 losses won't be much competition in Cbus.  A Michigan team with just 1 big ten loss and something to play for might have a shot.

Maryland -- 8.5

Wisconsin -- 5

MSU -- 4

Penn St -- 4

Rutgers -- 10

Indiana -- 9

OSU -- 2

I'll watch every game and cheer and care way too much, but no way I'll have any confidence in them to win a big game until they actually do so with any regularity.

The gameplan against OSU has always been good enough to win. Just needed a QB good enough to make simple plays the couple years. We got this.

Can Michigan State be our Super Bowl? Can Michigan get psyched up to be beat these SOBs? Please? I know a lot of people here say that other teams, and esp State get psyched up to play us because they're our rival (I was just complaining about this in the other thread) but shouldn't Michigan get psyched up to play them? I mean, they're our rival, right? If M doesn't get pumped to play rivals, who do they get pumped up to play? Nebraska? Because Scott Frost talked some shit three years ago? After his own team got blown out?

I know it seems like I'm being harsh on the team here but motivation seems to be a problem for them lately. But, if they play with a fire and an attitude like they did vs Nebraska - I think they can beat anybody.

(While we're on the topic of motivation I am also a big complainer about the basketball team as well. I'm a huge Beilein fan and defender but a lot of the time the boys look flat or like they don't mind losing. When they get it together and are focused, I love them to death).

Wild Alternative Thought: would you take surprise upset losses to Maryland and Rutgers if it meant beating Wiscy, MSU, PSU, and OSU this year? What would that do to change the narrative about Harbaugh's record against rivals? Performance in road/night games?

9-3 is where a large majority of us had this team pegged at the beginning of the season - if those losses were to ND/MD/RU, how would the fanbase view the season, as a success or failure?

Obviously an extreme hypothetical/"what if"

It's Year Fucking 4.

After the fucking debacle in 2015 and the shitshow performance in 2017.

Fucking lose to Wisconsin and Penn State at this point. Who gives a shit.

That game has to be a win.

It is excuse after excuse. Braindead punters and bad weather.

Stop fucking holding a vengeance against Rutgers and Maryland.

There were multiple articles about how our players were furious about Frost's comments and how Don Brown reminded them of it.  The players said they were out to prove a point.

Far worse has been said in this one about our guys, so there should be a mountain of motivation.

Levels can change from week to week.  So I can't really answer these. 

In regards to the last game....maybe this comes from being broken but I can say that if we are ahead of OSU in the final minute and the Bucks need to convert a 4th down & 35 to stay alive, my confidence level in them getting the first down is a 10.  I won't tell you what happens on the next play. 

Agree except I will go with a 7 for MSU. They are too one-dimensional this year and Brown will eat their gimmick offense alive. Michigan finally has a capable (although inconsistent) offense for the first time since 2007. I think it will be similar to 2016 where Sparty brings out new wrinkles to get a few early drives and points and then we slowly suffocate them. The key will be our offense not committing driver-killing and penalties and stupid turnovers. Barring that, we should win by 10-14 points but it will be stressful the whole time.

Maryland:  8

Wisconsin:  5

MSU:  6

Bye Week:  10 (good timing / needed healing)

PSU:  5

Rutgers:  10

IU:  8

OSU:  4

Maryland, Rutgers and IU we should be able to take care of business.  I don't think MSU has the running game to sustain any offense against us and we win the game in East Lansing.  I think we can play toe-to-toe with both Wisconsin and PSU at home, but the outcomes are a toss-up depending on if we can cut out the penalties and avoid any turnovers.  However, on the road in Columbus is a tall order.  To take them down, the defense would need to be extra sharp and Shea would have to save his best game for last.  Let's strap it on and find out.  Go Blue !!!

Maryland - 8.5

Wisconsin - 6

Michigan State - 5.5

Bye week - 11

Penn State - 5.01

Rutgers - much like the bye week, 11

Indiana - 9.5

Ohio State - Pi

Maryland 9

Wisconsin 8

MSU 8

PSU 7

Rutgers 10

IU 9

OSU 6

B1G 8

CFP-R1 (2 seed) 7

CFP-R2 (Bama) 4 (since this presupposes having won all of those other games, it takes into account the growth and confidence that would have come with that)

Cody White being out w a broken hand moves MSU to an 8 from a 6 for me. I thought Lewerke would be one of the better QB's in the B1G after his true freshman campaign but his ball lacks the natural zip of a Shea Patterson, and my eyes tell me Shea has quicker feet. To me that gives us better talent overall at all the offensive skill positions than State. I wasn't sure that would be the case when the year started.

PSU started tackling poorly as the OSU game went on. For a moment there it was like APP St didn't put up 31 on them in their season opening white out and PSU might actually have a defense. I think Michigan can score 30 on them at home coming off a bye and wearing PSU down in the 2nd half. Confidence level 6-7 here for me.

As you said, OSU is no where near as unbeatable as everyone thought 2 weeks ago when they were scoring 65 a game on little sisters of the poor. Haskins is not the running threat of a Mcsorely or Wimbush...or Barrett. I think there is a blueprint to limit him from going crazy. Again, if PSU can tackle on some of those screen plays and YAC's late in Saturday's game, they win. TCU also gave OSU the game similar to how they did the following to Texas. OSU could have 2 losses already. They are still likely the better team but our depth of Paye, Uche, Hawkins, Ross, Ambry, Bell gives me confidence the floor is rising. I can talk myself into a 5 here.

If we lose to Wisconsin, all of this means nothing and we can just hope for an upset of one of the 2 remaining rivals and for Shea to come back next year.

My confidence is still high that we beat all teams remaining.  To do that, I think we start with MD. 

Maryland - 7.5

Wisconsin - 5

MSU - 4

PSU - 4

Rutgers - 8.5

Indiana - 7

OSU - 2

I think the Wisconsin game is the difference between 8-4 and 7-5.