Confidence levels on remaining games
We’ve seen a mixed bag of performances from this team and I think we are still trying to figure out who we are. I expect a wide variance of opinions on the remaining games and would like to hear some thoughts. Mine (Admittedly a little cautious)
Maryland: 8. Decent team, but a home game for us and likely we come out a little more focused after a slow start last week.
Wisconsin: 6. Likely going to be a close low scoring game but our improved pass protection gives me hope that we can do enough to win
MSU: 4. This one will be controversial to some and I hope I’m wrong. They look unimpressive this year but have been missing several key guys who will be back for us. It’s a road game and we can’t fall behind in this game. It’s their super bowl and we never seem to match their intensity. Desperately want this one.
PSU: 4. Had much more confidence in this one earlier in the year. McSorley will give us problems again, their offense hasn’t skipped a beat from last year.
Rutgers: 9.9. Come on.
IU: 8. They always play us tough but this is a game we should win at home.
OSU: 3. I have no doubt we will have a good game plan and let’s pray we are healthy going in. I don’t think OSU is unbeatable this year, but they are pretty darn good yet again. If it was at home I’d give us a punchers chance. Hope for a perfect game from us and a sloppy game from the Buckeyes.
October 2nd, 2018 at 11:42 AM ^
Maryland - 100%
Wisconsin - 50%
MSU - 50%
PSU - 50%
Rutger - 100 %
Indiana - 100%
OSU - 45%
October 2nd, 2018 at 11:45 AM ^
Really should ask again in 2 weeks. If they beat Wisconsin at home then the rest of the games will be 5 or higher. Osu 5 MSU 8 and psu 7. If we lose to Wisconsin then osu 5 msu 6 and psu 6. I think UMs linebackers are better than psu or osu this year so we should be able to defend McSorley better than osu and Haskins screen game better than psu. Questions for psu and osu will be on offense
Ppl who are picking MSU any lower than 6 are stuck in the BPONE. While that team always gets up for the game they haven’t looked good this year. UM beat them handily is 16 and last year they were both bad teams. They didn’t up their game to play is last season UM was not a good team and the game was in terrible conditions. I’m not worried about a good Harbaugh team against a mediocre MSU.
October 2nd, 2018 at 1:14 PM ^
This is so dumb. Tell me one year where MSU looked really good before they played us. It’s what they do.
October 2nd, 2018 at 2:12 PM ^
Well we have 3 season since Harbaugh got to UM
2015 they were undefeated and looked like a good team.
2016 they didn’t look like a good team and weren’t.
2017 they didn’t look like a good team and weren’t. UM was simply worse.
In none of those years did MSU look really bad before playing us then look good while playing us.
October 2nd, 2018 at 11:51 AM ^
Boo for not making Rutgers a 10. What are you using an asymptotic scale or something?
October 2nd, 2018 at 12:05 PM ^
I have no idea. I think at osu would take a miracle based on what I’ve seen so far.
@MSU: our press man coverage scares me. I could see a lot of holding and PI calls. Also lewerke worries me scrambling, particularly in RZ. They seem to gameplan well for our D.
Im not going to go through each one. Overall my concerns with our team is our offensive playcalling and secondary. I’m taking a week to week approach at this point. We should compete in every game.
October 2nd, 2018 at 12:07 PM ^
I'm a 5/6 on both PSU and MSU. Penn State is demonstrably worse at running the ball without Barkley; McSorley has obviously picked up the load there, but Sanders has been held under 100 yards 3 times this year, including by App St. and Kent St. He's also not looked particularly dangerous as a receiver. That just feels like a team hyper-reliant on McSorley to keep them on track, and I have faith that Brown and co. can figure out how to slow him down enough to keep this game close.
MSU is a poor man's version of PSU, and even though that's a road game I don't buy that they are more "up" for this game than Michigan, unless they now the gods of rain storms and fumbles. Michigan waxed them 2 years ago on the road, and even a semi-competent QB performance last year would have gotten them the win.
I think Wisconsin is closer to a 4, since that's a team that is happy to pound away for 4 quarters, and we haven't seen how Michigan's tackles hold up for an extended period of time. Plus, Gary seems to be on and off the injury list, and that's a huge part of the run game.
October 2nd, 2018 at 1:05 PM ^
I was ready to agree with you on PSU, then I remembered how well historically our defenses perform against running QB's. I shuddered and lowered expectations.
October 2nd, 2018 at 12:12 PM ^
Staee and OSU should both be zero. Doesn’t matter how terrible Staee looks before they play Michigan. That game will play out just like last year. Lewerke does just enough to burn Michigan with his feet. Staee scores two quick TDs and Michigan will battle back a little but run out of gas at the end. Will be another 14-10 or 17-13 type win for Staee.
October 2nd, 2018 at 12:25 PM ^
MD - 9
UW - 5
MSU - 4
PSU - 3
RUT 9
IU - 9
OSU - 1
October 2nd, 2018 at 12:33 PM ^
Maryland - I do think their offense should give our defense some issues, as they've got some good athletes on that side of the ball. But I don't think Shea and Co. will have a ton of issues moving the ball. And its at home so I think they win comfortably. Probably a 9.
Wisconsin - if this was at Camp Randall, I'd be really skeptical. But its at home, under the lights. I'd say the odds are probably 65-35 in our favor. Wouldn't be surprised if we lost, but its a game I think we win to the tune of 21-17. 6 or 7.
MSU - On a scale of one to ten, my confidence level in this game is a five at best. Probably closer to three or four. I don't care how unimpressive MSU has looked so far. They will give us their best game, and if we start slow in this game like we did at ND and NW, we're screwed. They're going to come out and try to punch us in the mouth. If we can't match their intensity (which we seem to never be able to), we're losing this game. They just know how to win this one. Be prepared to watch a warzone that night.
Penn State - ehh probably a five or six. We may have an edge because its at home, but McSorely is going to give this defense fits. He's going to slant us to death that night. This is a game where Patterson is going to have to prove he can keep up. Can he? Yes, I think so. PSU's defense has holes. Will he? I don't know. McSorely is far more proven.
Rutgers - 10. Nothing else to say. We might as well play against Paramus or Don Bosco while we're out there. They'd probably be a better challenge.
IU - 6 or a 7. We should win, but its Indiana and they always find ways to make the score of this game closer than it ought to be. The score is either going to end 63-61, or 3-2.
OSU - a two, or maybe a three. On the road, against Meyer, against a QB who already beat us last year when he stepped in cold on the road and playing from behind. They're likely 11-0 coming into that game. They won't be wanting for motivation. If Bosa is back, my confidence goes no higher than two. Does the team have the talent to win? Yes. But so many things have to go right for Michigan to win this game. OSU just has to play its game and not make a few critical mistakes. Until I see this team beat OSU, I can't pick them to win.
October 2nd, 2018 at 12:46 PM ^
Sky high across the board.
We're going to Indianapolis.
October 2nd, 2018 at 12:46 PM ^
Sky high across the board.
We're going to Indianapolis.
October 2nd, 2018 at 1:16 PM ^
Twice?
October 2nd, 2018 at 3:48 PM ^
Isn’t it obvious? We’re getting invited to a Colts game to play against Andrew Luck, beat him, and then Harbaugh will march into the Colts front office and say that he’ll come to coach the Colts and revive Luck’s career.
But not before winning four straight national titles at Michigan.
October 2nd, 2018 at 1:33 PM ^
The offense is going to need to put up 30 at some point this season to win a game. I have seen nothing so far this season that gives me confidence that they have a plan to do that against a good team.
October 2nd, 2018 at 3:27 PM ^
Do you consider Northwestern a good defensive team? Because statistically, they're actually better than Wisconsin, by quite a bit, and they're up there with the best teams on the schedule in S+P+:
MSU: 17th
PSU: 21st
OSU: 23rd
Northwestern: 31st
Wisconsin: 49th (!!)
They came out fired up at home playing for their RB who had to medically retire, so their first few drives were expectedly good. Then M pretty much did what they wanted save for some self-inflicted, unforced errors, bad play calling and horrific officiating (dropped pass by McKeon, false start on 4th by Gentry, unwillingness to run Bench Mason on short yardage, Hidgon hold), etc.
In the last three quarters, M racked up almost 400 total yards despite all that. So the offense was moving the ball with relative ease against a solid defense on the road.
And yes, unforced errors, bad play calling and horrific officiating have become staples of M offenses the past couple years so definitely no reason to think those will stop.
But they could stop or be reduced. It's easy to see how we could be a good offense with some of that stuff cut down. The talent is there and that's the hardest part. The team seems to be improving quite a bit, especially the O line. It's not far away from potentially taking off.
October 2nd, 2018 at 5:00 PM ^
I would say the jury is out on NW's defense but UM barely got to 20 against them so...
October 2nd, 2018 at 2:03 PM ^
McSorley once again proved that he is a helluva college QB. 175 rushing yards against Ohio State's very athletic defense, plus inch-perfect throws time and time again? That's freaking ridiculous. The kid is like a bug, skittering all over the field, and nobody seems able to get a solid hit on him, despite all the running and scrambling. He creates a fast attack offense because his decision making is so quick, and that's why PSU is so dangerous...I can't wait for him to graduate! I fear we will give up several big plays to the house (like last year) if our defense is overly aggressive...but it's a catch 22 for us because that's what we do best!
October 2nd, 2018 at 3:32 PM ^
After seeing that slant to the really fast guy be taken 93 yards to the house, I had some heart palpitations.
I feel like DB will devise a way to stop them, especially being so reliant on one player. OSUs defense has for a long time significantly underachieved relative to their talent. Probably because everybody goes pro after three years and they're constantly plugging in true sophomore 5 stars that are really talented but still green.
In any case, I feel pretty good about that game at home.
October 2nd, 2018 at 2:07 PM ^
Confidence overall: pretty good. Outside chance we can finish 10-2.
Confidence in individual games: right now, fair. In the abstract I think we have the players to compete with and/or beat everyone. Even OSU.
Confidence level when it's actually time to think about the games:
Maryland/Indiana - 4
Rutgers - 10
Wisconsin - 0
MSU - 0
PSU - 0
OSU - 0
October 2nd, 2018 at 3:09 PM ^
Maryland - 8
Wisconsin - 7
MSU - 9
PSU - 6
Rutgers 9.9
IU - 8
OSU - 4
October 2nd, 2018 at 3:20 PM ^
I'm calling it right here.
We win 2 out of Wisc, MSU, PSU, OSU (including a rivalry game)
but . . . we inexplicably lose to fucking Indiana and the board has a complete melt-down.
October 2nd, 2018 at 3:32 PM ^
Maryland - 9
Wisconsin - 7
MSU - 8
PSU - 6
Rutgers 9
IU - 7
OSU - 4
MSU doesn't worry me as much as in past years. There's likely not going to be a monsoon. There definitely won't be an O'Korn. We should be fine.
October 2nd, 2018 at 4:58 PM ^
If the rivalry win is at OSU, no one will care much at all about a loss to IU.
October 2nd, 2018 at 3:40 PM ^
I'd put OSU at 2/10, and Indiana at a 9, but otherwise I agree.
October 2nd, 2018 at 4:55 PM ^
MD - 80%
UW - 60%
MSU - 60%
PSU - 60%
Rutgers - 99%
IU - 70%
OSU - 30%
*My one caveat - if we make it MD - PSU undefeated, then I bump OSU up to 50%.
October 3rd, 2018 at 12:31 AM ^
8-4. we beat either MSU or UW and lose to PSU and OSU.
October 3rd, 2018 at 3:01 PM ^
Its true that people, especially fans on this site, tend to be slappy, overly optimistic, whatever you want to call it. Every year there are reasons for optimism, and even if there aren't they will find some. UMBIG 11 and some of us more grounded fans may resent this and want to tell them that they should be more realistic. This is true and a valid point.
However just because someone predicts something all the time doesn't mean they wont accidentally be right. Most of the time when we think about a prediction, we think of something based on in depth knowledge, or information others don't know. You could say it wasn't a true prediction because they always predict it. A broken clock is right twice a day.
But even if we think some people are diluted in their hubris, it doesn't mean they wont be right. Don't make the mistake of thinking a broken clock is never right.
Believe it or not Michigan could go 2/2 on games that could go either way and be 10-2 or better......