Reality Check - UM Football Has Been Mediocre by "Blue Blood" Standards ...for 20 Years

Submitted by alum96 on

Preface:  (a) I am prepared for the downvotes and hate messages and (b) this has little to do with the Penn State game and more to do with the now years of sweating out games with the likes of UConn / Akron and knowing a typical game versus a program like Purdue or Illinois is now a sweat it out game with a >35%+ chance of a loss.

I cannot remember the last time we had a servicable OL that did not require a superman QB to create offense.  I am sure it was 2007 but it sickens me to see we have a MAC level OL - whatever the age - with an All American holding down 1 of the 5 spots, and a theoretical NFL pick at another.  It sickens me that this is not a 1 year issue, or a 3 year but with the youth of 2014 will be a year 7 issue.  At Michigan. 

We have let the Big 10 down, and our biggest rival down.   It is not just since Rich Rod got here, but aside from one special season, and a few other very nice ones, UM football has been quite "average" (I don't know the right adjective and I know the board police will attack whichever adjective I use so insert your own) not for 6 years but 20 versus our "pedigree".   5 Big 10 titles, outright or shared in 20 years.  Wisconsin has more in that time.

Being a statistic geek I took a look at the top programs in all time wins, excluded the Harvard/Yales and added in Florida and we don't compare very well at all for the past 20 years.  By that I mean 0, 1, or 2 loss seasons. [i.e. my ARBITRARY signal of what  would indicate you have a pretty damn elite team, allowing for 1 screwup a year - it's a basic eye test, not science]  We have been consistently meh (insert your adjective here) - and well below our rival OSU who both share a very average conference for about a decade now.   We laugh at Notre Dame here on so many levels but frankly we have become Notre Dame North.  For comparison sake, the previous 20 year period, we had 13 seasons of 2 losses or less; we had an elite program.

Since 1993, the # of years UM has lost less than 3 games: 4.

We sit here on our boards and so many are all high and mighty and mock Notre Dame.  Yes they have only had 2 of less than 3 losses in 20 years.  Somehow they have been even worse.  But what a lame yardstick at this point.  Hey we are better than Charlie Weiss and Bob Davie - yippee.

Our rival?  They are making us look pathetic.  OSU with 12 years of 2 losses or less.

  • PSU with a "over the hill Paterno": 6
  • Nebraska: 8
  • Texas: 7
  • Oklahoma: 7
  • USC* (*cheaters): 9
  • Florida: 11
  • Georgia: 5
  • Tennessee: 6
  • Bama: 6

Aside from consistency over 20 years most of the teams above had 4-5 year periods of super elite status where they were "dominant", before cycling back down.  Unfortunately while we got our 1 NC, we also have not had that sort of "consistent elite/feared for a # of years".  Georgia is probably the only other one along with our friends in South Bend.

Our recruiting classes have, aside for maybe 2-3 years out of 20 been consistently top 10ish.  We tsk tsk at Texas for doing less with more but the reality is many of us (myself included) are living in glass houses as we have been doing the same.... or one could argue less with the same.

I get caught up in the day to day and week to week analysis as much as anyone, but when you really sit back and look at the big picture it has been a relatively mediocre era, thankfully to a degree covered up by a supernova in 1997.   Just very frustrating to analyze and compare to what Ohio is doing - we are not in the same conversation anymore. Hopefully our "cycle" comes soon (latter 2010s) but it's been a long time waiting for it.

switch26

October 14th, 2013 at 3:18 PM ^

This is similar to what other B1G ten oppoenents have said about Frank Clark and some of our other players..  In the season preview magazine someone from another team said Clark could have 20 sacks if he showed up for every game because he was unstoppable 1 on 1..  But they said in watching different game films it looks like he doesn't play hard game to game.

 

Same was said about funchess and how he was never physical, even though he is the biggest player on the field.

SysMark

October 14th, 2013 at 8:55 AM ^

It isn't so much whether your "analysis" is wrong or right, it's the timing.  If you had the insight and/or nerve to post this before Saturday it might have meant more.  Today it just seems like easy piling on.

On the bright side we beat both Alabama and Florida in bowl games during the period you reference.

alum96

October 14th, 2013 at 9:50 AM ^

I agree.  I am just F****** frustrating seein the same thing now for 6 years - PSU sucks this year.  UCF went in there and beat them.  (UCF is a fine team but no world beater)  The whole Big 10 has been down for a decade - really down.  Our rival is taking advantage of it.  We are sort of the same team in different iterations over and over whatever the record.  We can not realistically look at our team and say "close to dominant" - just 3 players away.  Not that I am expecting that in 2013, I was expecting 9-3 and we probably can do that just b/c the conf is so bad.  But getting blown off the ball consistently in the trenches is just shocking for me to see.

SysMark

October 14th, 2013 at 12:13 PM ^

I don't disagree but the ineffective line play didn't start Saturday and probably won't be ending any time soon.  They're going to have to find a way to improve or continue to suffer.

In the vein of trying to stay positive remember Alabama wasn't the juggernaut they are now before Saban got there - the program was down and they had tried and failed to hire Rich Rodriguez.

His Dudeness

October 14th, 2013 at 11:55 AM ^

I get called out for posting shit on here all the time, but man... just man. This comment is some shit.

If you didn't think the '06 team was great then I think you should just focus on the NFL or something. Maybe take a break from sports all together. Spend some time on some other things for a while.

xxxxNateDaGreat

October 14th, 2013 at 10:01 AM ^

Did anyone here honestly believe we were the grandest ship to sail the Atlantic? My guess is no. Michigan is 5-1 and many projected 8-10 wins this year. We could absolutely fall short of that, but my gut says that Michigan will go 3-3 and then win a bowl game to finish 9-4. Not great but not bad by any stretch of the imagination.

Phil Brickma

October 14th, 2013 at 10:25 AM ^

Everyone's expectations got blown skyhigh after the ND win. This is a 9 or 10-win team, on track for another step forward with the new coaching regime. Rebuilding takes time. Exercise some patience.

Saturday's loss was infuriating. I have questions about Borges and the conservative gameplan at the end was mind-boggling, but that doesn't mean I want to nuke the damn program. Settle down.

MichiganG

October 14th, 2013 at 11:09 AM ^

Honestly, though, before this game we were a very 2012 Notre Dame-like 5-0.  I had started to wonder whether I would have been happy with a 2013 season that resembled their 2012 season.  Going undefeated for the privilege of being shown that they were absolutely not the #2 team in the country.  (My answer was yes, but only because that meant we'd beat Ohio.)

gustave ferbert

October 14th, 2013 at 9:20 AM ^

You're right. . . when you take a step back and look at it, you're absolutely right.  We can get some of the best talent in the nation, (and definitely the best talent in the midwest) and do nothing with it.  Gone are the days of back to back to back to back to back B1G championships like the late 80's/early 90's  We'll all expect 1997 every year and we are far from that mark.  

alum96

October 14th, 2013 at 9:46 AM ^

I don't think anyone expects 1997 consistently - no program does that.  In 2006 we were very close to a win in The Game and being in the title game conversation.   The UM team that played Vince Young's Texas team was fun and competitve at a very high level.  There were a few other teams in the past 20 years (97 being obvious) but a few others at a very top end level.  But in between those teams were a lot of 3 and 4 loss seasons. 

There was no sustained excellent at any point in 20 years.  The NC offsets a lot of 3 and 4 loss seasons I guess, but I don't know how much longer we can cling to that.  To frame it between 93 and 96 there were four seasons of 4 losses (16 losses), and 7 of the 8 seasons after the NC year we had 3+ losses.   When our "peers" rise up in their NC runs they bracket that championship team with a few years of 1-2 loss type teams, see Nebraska in the 90s, Okahoma 7-10 years ago, USC for 6-7 years (cheaters), Texas for 6-7 years, Alabama last half decade etc.  Heck throw in LSU which has not won a NC but been considered elite or near elite for 7-8 years now.  A consistent plateu at an elite level - our plateau has been 3-4 losses.  Has there any point in the past 20 years that people thought of Michigan over a 5 year time frame as they do those teams?  Aside from people in Michigan who wear our maize colored glasses?

 

Indiana Blue

October 14th, 2013 at 9:26 AM ^

Hoke's first year Michigan goes 11 - 2.  This is with RR's players.  GERG is gone and GM steps in as DC.  Nobody at that time realized that Borges IS WORTHLESS as a playcaller.  The EXPECTATION LEVELS rise.  And for good reason.  Recruiting becomes TREMENDOUS.   The Future looks bright ...

Down year in 2012 - capped off by a bowl loss that we should have won.

2013  -  Most people (national talking heads) expect Michigan to contend for a B1G title.  Erractic at times but Michigan undefeated going into Penn State ... then this entire coaching staff (but MOSTLY Borges) takes its foot off the gas in a game that Michigan had taken total control of.  From Halftime to 6 min. to play, Michigan outscores PSU 24 - 3 to take a 10 point lead and Borges sticks his head up his ass and blows any chance this offense has to finish the game.  Some games are defensive games ... WAKE UP this wasn't one of them.

I was there sitting in the upper deck screaming to THROW the football.  PSU was playing man coverage 10 - 12 yards off our wideouts.  One time they didn't even cover one of oue wideouts !  Devin would come to the line, look out and then tap his helmet like he was calling an audible - but then he handed the ball to Fitz (PUKE).  But this game was done when we lose 8 yards and then punt from the 35.  WTF - where's the Hoke that goes for it on 4th down from his own 40, or calls a fake FG ... this happened in 2011, the 11-2 season.  And the aggresive play calling NEEDS to return or this team will wither the rest of the season ...

AriGold

October 14th, 2013 at 10:04 AM ^

and I have no idea why half of this message board is apologizing for Borges!!!!

If this guy worked for me and performed like this he would have already been fired...I am so sick of hearing he and Hoke blame the players and the lack of "execution"...call the plays that work, or hit the unemployment line!

BlueGoM

October 14th, 2013 at 9:28 AM ^

2013-1997=16

we won a national championship in '97 dude, WTF are you on about us being mediocre for 20 years?  We had a shared B1G title in '04.  '06 was not a mediocre team.

At best you could claim 7 years.

 

 

alum96

October 14th, 2013 at 9:59 AM ^

Sorry I disagree with you.  It is your opinion so I respect it but a NC does not offset all the seasons around it.  (it does help alleviate it of course).  Can you really tell me one undefeated seasons offsets 12 years of 3-4 loss seasons around it?  If so, then we respectfully disagree.  I wrote this up higher on the page:

"To frame it between 93 and 96 there were four seasons of 4 losses (16 losses), and 7 of the 8 seasons after the NC year we had 3+ losses.   When our "peers" rise up in their NC runs they bracket that championship team with a few years of 1-2 loss type teams, see Nebraska in the 90s, Okahoma 7-10 years ago, USC for 6-7 years (cheaters), Texas for 6-7 years, Alabama last half decade etc."

Here is a listing of losses by year starting with 93 - does this strike "elite" to you?

4,4,4,4,0.... 3,2,3,4,3,3,5.

Those were the seasons bracketing the NC.  That was more like a supernova surrounded by relatively meh.  That string was followed by a 2 loss season, than a 4 loss, than Rich Rod. 

For comparison sake it would be like saying if Notre Dame won a NC last year they had been an elite program for 10 years. 

BlueGoM

October 14th, 2013 at 12:15 PM ^

He included a 2 loss season in his list above.  Furthermore Bo never won a NC and had a losing record in bowl games.

If the standard is 1 loss or less a year to become 'elite', then we were elite for a period in the 1970's under Bo and that was it.

Most schools would love to have our record in football.  How many winning seasons has Michigan had? Bowl games, bowl wins? etc.  Get some perspective, people.

 

 

UMxWolverines

October 14th, 2013 at 1:34 PM ^

Most schools being okay with it is not a good reason to accept 3 and 4 loss seasons and that's exactly the kinda of thinking that allowed it to happen. ''Oh most schools would be okay with 3 losses a year!'' Well guess what? Michigan isn't one of those schools. Neither is Texas, Oklahoma, Notre Dame, USC, OSU, and Alabama. The only reason Lloyd wasn't let go earlier is because he won a national championship. 

M-Wolverine

October 14th, 2013 at 3:50 PM ^

When the seasons were one more games shorter, had years where he didn't even play in a bowl game due to rules (and most likely removing another loss from his record), and spent half his career in a conference that was total shit outside of Ohio State.

alum96

October 14th, 2013 at 1:41 PM ^

Nope, I used a 2 loss maximum.  In the OP I wrote this:

For comparison sake, the previous 20 year period, we had 13 seasons of 2 losses or less; we had an elite program.

 

It has nothing to do with NC.  It has to do with a plateau at a much higher level than we have been for the past 2 decades. 

Blarvey

October 14th, 2013 at 9:28 AM ^

Ok, but I don't really think anybody was denying this. Lloyd tailed off after those late 90s teams and the 02-04 teams and RR was kind of a change of pace and hope that could bring UM back to a perennial top 10 team. When that didn't work out, Hoke was hired to bring things back closer to the mold of old Michigan teams.

I know a lot of posts are coming out because of the loss but come on, this was true before the game. The only thing that matters is Indiana and the rest of the B1G schedule. We have our tradition and history but that is not going to do anything to win games.