Gonzaga or USC?

Submitted by JamieH on March 29th, 2021 at 3:12 PM

Normally I don't like to talk about the NEXT round until our team is done with the current one.   But we've gotta sit through the Zags-Trojans game tomorrow night regardless, so......

What are we thinking?  Do we pull for USC because duh, you want to play a 6 seed not a 1 seed?

Or....do we want the shot at beating an Undefeated Gonzaga and denying them the first undefeated title since the 70's?  With USC and the Pac 12 playing so well, USC might not be that much less of an opponent anyway.  KenPom has USC up to #6 (thought still WAAAAY behind Gonzaga), and they will jump even higher if they win tomorrow.  They have the top ranked defense (#4 overall) of the remaining teams, and are closing in on having a top 10 overall offense too.  Though the Elite 8 is offense-heavy--USC offense is only 6th out of the 8 at 14th overall.  

This is NOT meant to be a "look ahead" post or anything. UCLA is good and playing really well, so we have our hands full.  But--most of us will be watching the other game too  So....what do we want?

spiff

March 29th, 2021 at 3:45 PM ^

I'll bet you're a lot of fun at parties. You understand we also have no say in who wins the UCLA/Michigan game, right?

 

This is a discussion board, so discussing a germane topic that most people here will be watching seems ok to me, no? Why don't you sit this one out if you've decided you don't approve of the topic.

uncle leo

March 29th, 2021 at 3:19 PM ^

USC.

I don't care about any fake pride about beating the best of the best. I want the easiest possible path to a title. If it was an option, I'd play all 16 seeds to cut down the nets.

Frank Chuck

March 29th, 2021 at 7:15 PM ^

"Only the most passionate and insane of fans would remember the paths that previous national champions went through."

I bet even many younger Sparty fans don't know that Tom Izzo's lone National Championship consisted of a 8 seed Wisconsin and a 5 seed Florida in the Final Four. (I know this because I looked it up a few years ago.)

-----

Since you can only play who's in front of you, I want the easier path.

Gentleman Squirrels

March 29th, 2021 at 3:21 PM ^

I don’t care about reputable wins. At the end of the day, give me the easiest path to the final ending with a Michigan championship. Nobody hangs banners for  beating good teams. You hang banners for winning.

MGoFoam

March 29th, 2021 at 3:44 PM ^

You are not entirely correct. Illinois hangs banners for beating good teams. I moved to Champaign in 2004, in time for the season when Illinois basketball ALMOST went undefeated, losing their last game of the regular season, and ALMOST won the tourney, losing the championship game. Several weeks later, I saw a hard cover book in the grocery store about their amazing season. I thought to myself, "Who writes books about coming in second?" I subsequently came to understand that Illinois does.

Ham

March 29th, 2021 at 3:31 PM ^

Gonzaga's rating in kenpom right now is the highest rating of any team since he started doing this 20 years ago. USC's defense is no joke, but I think I would still rather Michigan play a team that they're ranked ahead than the highest ranked team in kenpom history.

aiglick

March 29th, 2021 at 3:33 PM ^

USC not even close. The Zags EM is a full 7 points on 100 possessions ahead of the group behind them which does include us. I think Michigan is playing well but don’t need this to get into a pissing contest to see who gets to the Championship game.

Also beat UCLA.

michengin87

March 29th, 2021 at 4:01 PM ^

?  Of course?  

I'm sure this is a "If you have to ask, then I don't need to tell you," but what are your reasons for not pulling for the Big Ten overall?

I know that OSU and MSU fans generally don't pull for us in anything, but I'd like to think that as brethren, we take the approach of, "I'm allowed to beat them up, but you're not."

xtramelanin

March 29th, 2021 at 3:39 PM ^

gonzaga.  they are a very good team but i reject the theme that they are the best.  they played an admittedly very solid OOC schedule, but haven't had a tough game in 4 months.  if they played in the B10 they'd be a third place finisher with 4 or 5 losses.  they struggled to beat their own conference at times, with more than a handful of close scores at halftime.  they were behind big to BYU in the WCC championship game and had to come back in the second half to win it. 

are they good?  i sure think so.  are they #1?  i am very skeptical and i'd like a shot to prove it. 

Teeba

March 29th, 2021 at 4:19 PM ^

If they played in the Big10, I have a hard time seeing 4 or 5 losses. They are 17-0 in neutral/road games. They've played and beaten:

3 seed Kansas by 12

3 seed West Virginia by 5

2 seed Iowa by 11

4 seed Virginia by 23

6 seed BYU by 17, 11, and 10

8 seed Oklahoma by 16

5 seed Creighton by 18

That's 9-0 against top 8 seeds (5 occurring in the last month,) most of them at road or neutral settings. I'd give Gonzaga a 9-1/10-0 record at home. Maybe they lose @Illinois and @Michigan, if they get games there. Remember, you don't visit every big 10 team in a 20 game schedule. The floor is 17-3 in the Big10.

They struggled to beat their conference 1 time, if you count a halftime deficit as a struggle.

 

KBLOW

March 29th, 2021 at 4:32 PM ^

Nearly all those teams were vastly overseeded, especially Kansas, WVA, and Creighton. And we crushed Iowa when they were playing arguably much better ball than in early December. Held them to 57pts while Gonzaga let them score 88! 

The Big 10 was a really tough road and I've seen nothing from Gonzaga that indicates they could've dealt with that day in and day out without delivering a clunker or two like every other team. Also, when playing teams that are so much better than their crappy conference, it becomes much easier to scout them b/c there's more of a chance of seeing what can work against them. 

readyourguard

March 29th, 2021 at 3:49 PM ^

You are allowed to look ahead.  Doing so has zero to do with the outcome of the game. Literally zero*. 

 

*Unless you're a burner account for one of our players or coaches.