Denard in Context: Just How Great was Saturday’s Performance?
It took absolutely zero numbers to know that Denard was very very good against UConn Saturday. We could easily just leave the conversation there, but then I wouldn’t get to use my handy database this week, and really, what fun would that be.
First games are very hard to put into perspective right away. We really have no idea if we played against the future Big East Champions or a mediocre team from a mediocre conference. To solve this, I took two independent approaches. The first was to just strip out the strength of opponent factor and compare it to other performances regardless of opponent. The second way is to add the games from this weekend into the database as if they were a part of last season and use the 2009 adjustment factor.
Not to spoil all the fun but if you don’t want to read on, I’ll make this real easy. Those of you who follow me on twitter already saw that Saturday was the best performance by Michigan quarterback that I have on record, which is almost every game since 2003.
On The Ground: +12 PAN
Without adjusting for competition for anyone, Robinson’s day on the ground was the best rushing game by a Michigan player in my database. It was .01, basically tied with, ahead of Mike Hart’s 2004 game against Illinois when we went for 231 yards on 39 carries.
It was the third best rushing performance of anyone under Rodriguez as a head coach. Only Pat White’s +14 against Pitt in 2005 and Kay-Jay Harris’s +16 against East Carolina in 2004 were better.
It was the third best ground performance by a Big Ten player, the 27th best of any quarterback and the 90th best overall, including many performances against teams much weaker than UConn.
Through The Air: +9 PAN
+9 through the air is a very good day by itself, even without the spectacular +12 on the ground. In fact, the unadjusted +9 is 15th among Michigan passers. Ahead of him are 10 Henne games, 2 Navarre games and Forcier’s first two games of last year.
In his three years under Rodriguez, Pat White had four +9 performances, as did Rasheed Marshall.
Putting it All Together: +21 PAN
Looking at the total performance, Dernard cracks the top 200 performances list that is dominated by heavy passers. When accounting for competition, Denard still comes up 7/11 PAN (7 passing, 11 rushing). Only three BCS conference players had ever done that before Denard on Saturday. Brad Smith and Jake Locker each did it once while Vince Young managed the feat three times.
Getting First Downs
Maybe the most impressive thing about Denard’s day was his ability to get first downs, especially on third down. Excluding the final run out the clock drive, Robinson was good for 12 first downs rushing. Only two QB’s since 2003 have ever topped that and 12 is good for top 50 including running backs.
On third down, Robinson’s seven rushing conversions were the fourth most since 2003. His 11 overall conversions were top 20.
September 7th, 2010 at 3:35 PM ^
Denard accomplished a passing day in his starting debut that Pat White only matched four times in his career? In a 30 mph wind? Obviously great job by the O line protecting and receivers and backs to hang onto the ball, but that is just a ridiculous individual performance. Thanks for the great data, as always!
September 7th, 2010 at 3:34 PM ^
Of all those games ahead of them, were their first game as a starter. His composure was the almost as impressive as his speed. Not panicing on his first 3rd and long and just doing what he had to do. Granted being the fastest player on the field is confidence boosting but his game management look like a veteran. I can only remember one botched play and we still got positive yards. I expected the speed but not the composure.
September 7th, 2010 at 3:36 PM ^
Thanks for the numbers. I'm excited to see if his play stays at this level. Nice work.
September 7th, 2010 at 3:38 PM ^
Whatever shall become of the Henne/Threetsheridammit/Tatelace Chart?
It is such a good chart, especially now that it has been visualized and data-mined. This was a fantastic chart post-UFR for comparing QB performance, but probably now needs a serious running metric thrown in to account for things Denard can do that humans cannot. I would hate to see a year full of "TA" given to Robinson for 70 or so plays when he sees a seam and scoots for an average of 11 yards. If, as I suspect, the rest of this year will see a lot more vertical plays thrown in, there will theoretically be a lot more opportunities for scooting.
September 7th, 2010 at 3:48 PM ^
Denard's awesome, no doubt about it.
But there's another reason I'm responding. It seems to me, as a matter of personal observation, that some mobile quarterbacks have done very well against meh opposition, but wilt when facing a really good defense. Problem is, I don't have math/stats to know whether my perspective is accurate or not.
I'm wondering if you can pull stats on Vince Young, Pat White, Michael Vick, etc., to see what happened when they faced very stiff opposition in all aspects of a defense: the line, the linebackers, and the secondary. Some seem to be able to put it into another gear. But at the end of the day, if a mobile QB is relying on his foot speed and shiftiness, there will come a time when that isn't enough. We saw that last year with Denard. We will see far more challenging defense later this year, and find out how he responds.
However, If you have speed (Denard,) ALONG WITH an arm (Farve,) ALONG WITH brains to assess the field quickly, accurately (Brady,) you could be unstoppable. Obv., that's what we're all hoping for with Denard Robinson.
September 7th, 2010 at 4:43 PM ^
But USC had a pretty good defense the year Vince Young shreeded them in the MNC title game, and ditto Oklahoma when Pat White had his way with them.
I am no math wizard but this seems lie a pretty simple equation: QB who can run and pass > QB who can run or pass
Edit: I just noticed that I mis-spelled "shredded" but I think I will leave it. "Shreeded" looks kind of Ufer-esque.
September 7th, 2010 at 5:38 PM ^
... there will be some really good defenses that can slow down / contain Denard. But to do that the might have to cheat / blitz / crowd the line for him, which I suppose will leave some of our receivers open. Obviously he's fast enough to avoid a pass rush enough to get the ball to them, in open space. For this offense to be successful, it has to show it can be multidimensional. I think vs. UConn it showed it can be, although it relied a bit too much on Denard. That should change. I am not worried about the offense, if it stays healthy enough.
After last year, I want to contain my excitement, but man is it hard. I think we are in for something special.
September 7th, 2010 at 4:20 PM ^
Saturday was the best performance I've ever seen from a QB at Michigan.
I keep researching, but I cant find a better single game
This will be fun
September 7th, 2010 at 4:27 PM ^
I think the key is not to look at this game and wonder what his upside is, but realize that this game is probably about as good of a game as he is ever going to have.
September 7th, 2010 at 4:45 PM ^
but only because I am not sure it is possible for a QB to have a better game. I guess he could've gone 22-for-22, but seriously.
However, I think all players are capable of improvement, no matter how good they are.
September 7th, 2010 at 5:24 PM ^
Even Coach Rodriguez was surprised he carried the ball so many times. I'm not an expert on the plays called, but it seemed to me that the QB draw was working way too often. Or whatever you call the play where Shaw/Smith ended up as a lead blocker for Robinson.
So I can't believe that ND won't find a way to shut that down. I would also expect that they ensure that he hands the ball off instead of keeping it on the run options much more frequently.
BUT according to the strategy, won't that then leave another offensive option open? Meaning Smith/Shaw have a combined 300 yards rushing next week?
how about the running back screen? and unless I was mistaken, the long pass over the middle was a fake to the running back screen, and Robinson was hit as he threw the ball.
So I agree, the personal stats may go down from here on out (especially when he's pulled from the games against UMass and Bowling Green) but I don't think the offense has finished seeing it's peak.
I think UConn played bend don't break. His longest was 35 yards? Unfortunately all the little plays still succeeded achieving the end zone. Someone is going to go for broke early, and he's going to get a 70+ yard sprint to the end zone out of it.
Afterall, the Steve Smith yardage record that he broke was done on 29 carriers. Smith did it in 4.
whatever his stats, I'm excited to watch the next opponent.
September 7th, 2010 at 5:37 PM ^
It will be hard to have many days, or any days, that will be statistically better. Having said that, you take what the defense gives you. Play the run, it loosens up the passing game; more coverage on the receivers, Denard is going to get yards on the ground. There is a reason why he is classified as a dual-threat QB. Last year, there was no passing game to respect.
Frankly, I hope opposing D's play him for the run, as I would be just as happy if someone else shouldered more of the load. It is a long season, and all those runs will take its toll.
September 7th, 2010 at 10:08 PM ^
be tough to duplicate, but I fully expect multiple 200 yard + games in his career, and topping 200 on several fewer carries than the 29 he had Saturday. The 50, 60, 70, 80, 90 yard explosion plays are coming if the line stays healthy and continues to improve. He just missed a couple the other day.
September 7th, 2010 at 4:43 PM ^
Very nice numbers for Denard!! I'll be curious to see if he can keep it up as defenses start to key on him more. I have a feeling he'll be up to the task!
September 7th, 2010 at 10:02 PM ^
making fun of special needs kids. You stay classy, internets.
September 7th, 2010 at 5:06 PM ^
where does he rank among players powered by dilithium?
September 7th, 2010 at 5:13 PM ^
but Denard sure looked an awful lot like Pat White on Saturday.
As for Brian Kelly defenses, I think Pat White had one of his best games ever against B.Kelly in the 2007 game vs. Cincy (27 carries, 155 yards, 2 TD).
2007 Cincy is not 2010 Notre Dame, but ND 2010 may not yet have a 2007 Ben Mauk in Dayne Crist either.
Purdue got some good penetration and pressure on Crist last weekend at times - may bode well for Michigan's talented DL.
September 7th, 2010 at 5:20 PM ^
There is no doubt that Denard's game was fantastic and one of the better performances turned by a Wolverine in recent memory. However, after watching the game a couple times I was left with some sort of emptiness after watching the performance. There have been times where I have watched Michigan offenses under Henne, Navarre, and Brady where I felt the offense was much more dangerous. It seems to me that because Denard never established much of a vertical threat (most passes were still within 10-15 yards) almost everyone was crowded in the box. One consequence of this was that it was harder for a running back to explode and have good games or for receivers to find a lot of open daylight and exploit their athleticism. This goes to R-Rod's comment about needing big plays against ND. So although this performance was truly great, I am more excited about seeing D-Rob's future games (when there is less wind) and he is able to throw a few more down field passes and the box empties out a little more, which should open even more lanes for the running backs.
Denard's (and the teams' running backs and receivers) best days are ahead of him!! (even if it doesn't show up on mathlete's stats).
September 7th, 2010 at 7:22 PM ^
I mean, Denard looked good in spring practice but could he really be loads better than last year in real games? Of course the answer came back yes. A resounding yes; you know Coach Kelly and staff are working feverishly to come up with a defense to stop him. And that's where your concerns come in; if they need to keep extra men to watch over Denard, you can bet there's going to be open space for recievers to venture to. I expect to see some good passes for yardage from Shoelace; that arm of his is stronger than advertized.
September 7th, 2010 at 10:38 PM ^
My only source of apprehension was due to the unproven nature of our defense. It wasn't until midway through the 4th quarter that I was convinced a 20 point lead would hold up.
What a win, though.
September 7th, 2010 at 7:40 PM ^
couldn't go vertical into/with that howling wind even if you tried.
September 7th, 2010 at 10:36 PM ^
Are the windy conditions going to be exacerbated by the new stadium design?
Mathlete = thank you.
September 7th, 2010 at 8:26 PM ^
I felt no emptiness watching the offense that game, just the sort of glee that makes your head explode.
That was a game where the defense was giving us 8 yards a play (at least through the better part of the first half). I have no doubt that there are variants on many of the plays we saw Saturday that end in a ball flying downfield. Let's keep some tools in the bag for the rest of the season.
September 7th, 2010 at 5:20 PM ^
There is no doubt that Denard's game was fantastic and one of the better performances turned by a Wolverine in recent memory. However, after watching the game a couple times I was left with some sort of emptiness after watching the performance. There have been times where I have watched Michigan offenses under Henne, Navarre, and Brady where I felt the offense was much more dangerous. It seems to me that because Denard never established much of a vertical threat (most passes were still within 10-15 yards) almost everyone was crowded in the box. One consequence of this was that it was harder for a running back to explode and have good games or for receivers to find a lot of open daylight and exploit their athleticism. This goes to R-Rod's comment about needing big plays against ND. So although this performance was truly great, I am more excited about seeing D-Rob's future games (when there is less wind) and he is able to throw a few more down field passes and the box empties out a little more, which should open even more lanes for the running backs.
Denard's (and the teams' running backs and receivers) best days are ahead of him!! (even if it doesn't show up on mathlete's stats).
September 7th, 2010 at 11:01 PM ^
I felt the same way after another viewing. It sort of sounds bitchy to ask "is that it", however, it is just a simple fact that we will need more complexity in the play calling to beat a really strong defense. While I liked what DRob could do, I am not sure how many times we can pull a QB on 3rd and 14. On the other hand, it seemed that they did not want to show a lot once we took control of the game. We should see what the arm is capable of next week when he will need to progress through a number of reads to go down field. He definitely has the arm strength and I am hoping to be impressed with the results of his complete game.
September 7th, 2010 at 5:28 PM ^
Excellent diary Mathlete. I knew his game was epic as did the rest of us, so thank you for adding the numbers to support this. I'd like to see a couple of downfield plays against ND to keep the defense respecting the entire field. I'd like to see the Tebow jump pass at some point.
September 7th, 2010 at 5:34 PM ^
It would be nice to have some way of combining a pocket passer and running back in some fashion to equal a running/passing quarterback. I am not sure of a good way to do this. But a good pocket passer that completely opens up the field can lead to many running lanes (a dynamic that henne and hart put forth on many occasions). In other words, how much did denard's game make the others around him perform well.
September 7th, 2010 at 11:07 PM ^
You mean Devin Gardner?
September 8th, 2010 at 12:48 AM ^
I meant combining the stats of a pocket passer and his complementary running back in some way using statistics to compare against a running quarterback that does both. This is not straightforward or obvious to do ... but the point was I think a good pocket passer opens up running lanes that improves the RBs around him. It didn't seem that Denard opened up running lanes for his running backs, just for himself, because there were so many people in the box trying to contain him. As Denard improves, I expect our offense to be much more dangerous just because of the respect defenses will have to give to his deep throws...however, it is not clear how Mathlete's stats will reflect this as D-Rob numbers from this game (in terms of completion percentage and running yards) will probably not be exceeded too often.
September 8th, 2010 at 3:45 AM ^
Interesting point. One thought regarding comparing Denard to a QB+RB tandem is that Denard by himself takes up one less spot on the field; If he really were as good as a QB+RB, Michigan's offence is effectively playing with 12 men on the field.
September 7th, 2010 at 5:35 PM ^
hopefully that means that the whole field has been opened up, partly by Saturday's performance, for the entire offense.
What impresses me is that although there were long gainers, there weren't any HUGE plays. I'll bet that most of the performances by other players that rival Denard's Big Saturday included some long, long runs for TDs that helped pad their stats.
September 7th, 2010 at 6:29 PM ^
Call for a new statistic? If Mathlete keeps getting front-paged like this I think we need a new stat; FAN: Front-paged Above Normal. FAN being a decimal like a batting average with higher being better.
I wonder who has the highest FAN (non Brian/Tim posters) of people who post diaries?
September 7th, 2010 at 7:44 PM ^
If I may ask (and it's not too hard/ time consuming), how would you have rated Tate's performance against Western last year? Was it epic, or just average? Thanks for the work.
September 8th, 2010 at 8:54 AM ^
Denard was a +21 unadjusted and a +18 adjusted based on last year's UConn averages. Against Western last year, Tate was a +8 unadjusted and a +6 adjusted. Tate's passing value was higher than Denard's but he obviously didn't have the ground performance. Western was Tate's third highest rated game behind Notre Dame and Purdue.
September 7th, 2010 at 10:05 PM ^
He has caused the sale of hours of therapist sessions for the UConn defense and their coaches and fans. I heard they are still screaming "Dear God please make him stop!!!" in their sleep.
September 7th, 2010 at 11:13 PM ^
I'm sure some defenses will keep a LB or FS to shadow DROB but that should just open up more receivers or the TE! As the season progresses DROB should learn RR offense inside and out. Watch out OSU!!!!
September 7th, 2010 at 11:27 PM ^
September 7th, 2010 at 11:29 PM ^
The one thing that would be cool to see? Chart? Chart! It'd be cool to see how the PAN ranks Denard's performance to say Ty Wheatley's in the 1993 Rose Bowl, TD Tim's against OSU in 1995 or Tom Brady's in the 2000 Orange Bowl.
With that being said it has been dayum impressive to see how Denard stacks up compared to Pat White, Brad Smith, Jake Locker and Vince Smith.
September 7th, 2010 at 11:40 PM ^
that I was anticipating when RR was hired. It just took a few years to get things in place. We may not see Denard exceed that performance all year (or any other QB, for that matter). But, he can get better in other ways and those around him can get better so that the total team effect will exceed Saturday's result.
How can any Michigan fan not want to see RR back next year to see what he can do with an older more experienced team.
September 8th, 2010 at 12:22 AM ^
don't think this will be his best game this year. He might have a lower passing percentage, but I bet he consistantly goes over 150 rushing and 200 passing. This offense is designed to take advantage of his skills, and he's still just learning it. To think his first start will be his best is ludicrous to me. Most players improve greatly between the 1st and 3rd games of the season, so I think Umass, BG, and Indiana should be scared. First, and most importantly, I wanna wipe the floor with ND this weekend...
September 8th, 2010 at 12:33 AM ^
next to me at the game and told him I felt like I was watching Juice Williams, Brad Banks, Donovan McNabb, Rickey Foggy and every other QB who ran all over Michigan all wrapped into one.
and I loved every second of it.
September 8th, 2010 at 12:58 AM ^
Will Denard have another game statistically like this against ND? I don't believe so, b/c basically ND has only this game film to get an idea of what he does, so they will expend massive amounts of energy trying to contain Denard, and w/this offense that means the DE will be occupied, and our OL has already shown an ability to get to the second level, meaning the middle should be ripe for Shaw/Smith to exploit, correct? At the very least, the fact that Denard has FIRMLY established that he can kill you with his legs, means the defense cannot just do a scrape exchange as they did w/Tate last year, b/c Denard will just run right by him. It seems to me that the "adjustments" teams made to the spread Michigan ran last year is void because someone a LOT faster is running the show. All this to say that Denard may not have another statistical performance like he did on Saturday, but our RBs and WRs may not ever have that "low" (relatively speaking) of an output for the rest of the year either, simply because of what Denard showed was possible.
September 8th, 2010 at 1:44 AM ^
I agree. I look for ND to take an approach of, "no matter what, DR is NOT beating us with his legs," and overplay him, which will open up the RB's on the zone read, and other options when they go to the scrape exchange to stop the zone read. It kind of reminds me of that 2005 Rose Bowl. It was pretty clear that M's plan was to stop Cedric Benson; in his wake, VY had his coming out party. Now if you just flip it, and other teams key on DR, let's hope we can have a whole backfield of RB's have their own "coming out" parties each week of the season.
September 8th, 2010 at 8:32 AM ^
i'd like to point out, the first of which i haven't really seen said yet: One, for a season opener, this team was one of the best prepared i've seen. Ever. A rock solid performance, and then some. for the first game of the year, impressive. Two, if this game doesn't convince the Rodriguez detractors that the team is on the right track, nothing will and they're idiots. Not on this blog, really, but on others. Go blue.
September 8th, 2010 at 9:21 AM ^
But I just want to make sure we aren't going crazy with this performance. I loved it and *think* we can get performances if not as great, at least similar, throughout the year.
I've also seen a lot of hating on almost every other non-M blog with an article on our performance. Denard will get hurt. Shaw and Smith really weren't that effective with only 98 yards. Lucky fumble at the 5 helped out a lot. UConn receivers with butterfingers. UConn is in the Big East, etc. etc.
I'd like to get excited, too, like a lot of you. So I guess my question is this: When am I allowed to just buy into it 100%?
I'm not a fairweather fan. I am there defending and rooting for us each game, every season, but the 2009 season was like a bad relationship: started great, lots of promise, an attractive and likable girl. Then we hit a rough patch on our weekend trip in EL, seemed to come out dinged but still with a bright outlook and had another really nice weekend with Delaware. Then I found out she had 6 cats, bipolar disorder and a mean case of something brewing below the equator. I've learned my lesson but I'm ready to love again. Can someone help me figure how to tell if this Ms. Michigan is dateable?
September 8th, 2010 at 9:51 AM ^
You're allowed to buy into it 100%; Denard is vastly improved, and will show flashes of Saturday's game throughout the year. What you're not allowed to do is go on Twitter and be all "Denard is the best QB in the Big Ten," like Lamarr Woodley did.
Peace
Ty
September 8th, 2010 at 2:00 PM ^
I agree with the preparation on the OFFENSE - but the other 50% says I don't want to lose ANY game 42-38. GO DENARD (Stay healthy, please) - GO BLUE - GET MORE DEFENSE!
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