The Mathlete

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Date	Title	Body
1 day 8 hours ago	Corrected, thanks.	Corrected, thanks.
10 weeks 6 days ago	The rating is an average of	The rating is an average of all the service's ratings. That's a good point that this could be some of the difference at both the top and the bottom for Hoke vs Carr, with Hoke working in a 4 service environment vs 2 for most of Carr's tenure.
15 weeks 6 hours ago	It's really a quantity vs	It's really a quantity vs quality thing. The aggregate points I used to rank has a strong bias towards signing more players. The guys Michigan got were very good, I believe Michigan was top 10 in LB avg rating, there were just two of them which kep the overall number down.
19 weeks 3 days ago	The numbers are developed	The numbers are developed based on the last ten years of games between evenly matched FBS teams, accounting for down, distance,possession, timeouts and score.
27 weeks 7 hours ago	Five games from the last 10	Five games from the last 10 years above 80% on defense and lost: 2005 Nebraska 92% Leading by 11 with 10 minutes left 2005 Ohio St 88% Leading by 9 with 8 minutes left 2009 Purdue 86% Up 13 in the third quarter 2004 Texas 84% Leading by 10 to start the fourth quarter 2008 Purdue 84% Up 14 in the second quarter
27 weeks 8 hours ago	You're about right on for the	You're about right on for the 10% number but the first offensive play was run from the 46 after a long Breaston return, increasing Michigan's chances to about 28%.
27 weeks 8 hours ago	Like I wrote, in the final	Like I wrote, in the final seconds things get a bit hazy. The 9% vs 5% has to do with the way I am counting. The 9% was the lowest when an offensive play was run. That was used for easier tracking in the database. It was 5% at the time of the punt, but 9% was the lowest when an offensive play was run.  The 9% does seem a bit high but I looked at the 100 games with the most similar situations, trailing by 3 ball around own forty and about 18 seconds left and 6% of teams went on to win the games so it isn't dramatically over stated.
28 weeks 5 hours ago	All of their damage is being	All of their damage is being done in the first half and they are really pulling off early, but just able to get our in front really quickly.
28 weeks 5 hours ago	Not saying it can't be done	Not saying it can't be done before then, but just that its unlikely to, at least before 2014. There will always be outliers like KSU but planning on being an outlier is not a very good strategy.
28 weeks 5 hours ago	There is a time lag. The	There is a time lag. The upper class players on the late Carr years were outstanding, some of the best in the country. The players he recruited those years that were upper classmen under Rodirguez, not so much.
28 weeks 6 hours ago	There is a points metric	There is a points metric behind it but you can think of the top as best in country and the bottom as worst.
28 weeks 6 hours ago	Fixed, thanks	Fixed, thanks
29 weeks 9 hours ago	Think of the replacement	Think of the replacement player concept, but localize it to one team. If Denard wasn't getting the plays, would we be better off? Compare Denard to AJ McCarron. Denard is +.23 and the rest of the team is -.23. If we take away plays from him the net result is -.46/play. McCarron is at 0.36 but his team is at 0.22. Even though McCarron's per play average is higher, he has more support behind him would still mean there is a good chance of similar production. Michigan doesn't have that luxury. Denard isn't the most productive this year, but losing him would be a bigger blow than any other team losing their best player.
29 weeks 11 hours ago	Despite being only 8 games	Despite being only 8 games in, Denard is already more valuable than any previos year. In 2010 Denard was worth 99 points and last year that dropped to 48 points with a strong supporting cast. This year's weak non-Denard showing has eclipsed prior. Doesn't mean he wasn't used more previously, just that this year the difference between his production per play and everyone else's is substantially greater.
31 weeks 13 hours ago	I value 100% of my readers	I value 100% of my readers even the blacked out ones playing Halo 3.  I updated the heading to clear things up a bit.
31 weeks 13 hours ago	The issue isn't having the	The issue isn't having the plays or the power to crunch them, it is a decision not to use them. As the chart above notes, Michigan was already 90+% chance of winning at the start of the third quarter with a three score lead, and it quickly climbed over 95%. Yes the starters stayed in the game but in my opinion, when the score reaches three possessions or more in the second, at the very least the strategy shifts from the teams' perspectives. Some positions may be subbed more liberally, play calling will likely shift down to a more conservative approach for the team with the lead.
31 weeks 13 hours ago	The numbers are all based	The numbers are all based from Michigan's perspective so that rush defense heading was referring to Michigan's rush defense versus MSU's rush offense.
32 weeks 10 hours ago	Most of the perceived	Most of the perceived variance is based on the fact the due to the lead, the second half is not included in these numbers. First half saw 6/8 passing and 4 big conversions while rushing had a decent 27 carries for 118 yards and 4 conversions. Second half the rushing really dominated but was excluded due to the size of the lead.
35 weeks 9 hours ago	Pulled the old database up	Pulled the old database up and Brian Luke from Kansas gets the worst showing at -28 in a 2005 game against Oklahoma. 11/30 86 yards, 3 INT and -40 yards rushing Henne's 11/34 against Ohio in 2007 is Michigan's worst showing (-20), although if you adjust for defense, Nick Sheridan's 2008 against NW  (-15) takes the cake. Juice Williams narrowly edges out Henne for worst B1G game, with a -20 in 2008 against Penn St
36 weeks 12 hours ago	+20 EV is one of the top 300	+20 EV is one of the top 300 performances (not opponent adjusted) of the last ten years. It's only 6th for Denard overall, his best being last year against NW when he was +28, which is top 40.  On a per play basis it was his seventh best with his best being 2010 against Indiana when he went +27 on 35 plays.
36 weeks 15 hours ago	I am mostly using preseason	I am mostly using preseason expectations, adjusted for teams that have largely under or overperformed such as Wisconsin. Usually by week 4-5 there are enough games to start to get a picture of what the true in-sesason perforamnce looks like.
36 weeks 15 hours ago	Extra Value. Essentially how	Extra Value. Essentially how many points above average performance. A 0 is an average performance across all of the FBS. Each point above is a measure of how many extra points a player/team has performed.
36 weeks 15 hours ago	Great description, drive	Great description, drive seasonality. I also like the saw tooth of the Air Force drive with many third and fourth downs and so the odds fluxuate down by down.
36 weeks 6 days ago	Players are rated based on	Players are rated based on their most recent evaluation. If a player was a 5 star out of HS and then 4 star out of JC, the 4 star is the one used for that service. If the service doesn't rate them for JC then the HS is used. The talent rank is a baseline rating using only data before entering school. I have lots of ways to look at players once they arrive, but this is measuring just prior evaluations. Since no adjustments are made to talent rank based on post-arrival performance, the Jordan Kovacs' of the world are still non-counters in this measurement.
37 weeks 15 hours ago	Post FAIL	Completely left off the B1G's Indiana representation on the table. Has now been updated.
39 weeks 13 hours ago	The 85% is based on receiving	The 85% is based on receiving production from receivers/tight ends only (backs excluded). Bell's return is factored into the equation separately but losing essentially an entire receiving corps and a quality quarterback, independent of everything else is not a combination that has a great history of offensive success. I would love to factor in offensive line but at this point I haven't been able to determine a quantitiative method with sufficient history to include.
39 weeks 1 day ago	Junk time is tossed. All	Junk time is tossed. All plays in the first half are in and plays in the second half are in if the drives either begin or end within two TDs.
39 weeks 1 day ago	Since 2006 13 BCS teams have	Since 2006 13 BCS teams have lost their starting QB and over 85% of their offense. Two teams (Ole Miss 2006 and Ks St 2010) improved, 3 stayed about the same and 8 teams cratered by a substantial margin. MSU could be an exception this year but history is not on their side.
39 weeks 1 day ago	My Top10: 1.Oklahoma 2.Oregon	My Top10: 1.Oklahoma 2.Oregon 3.Texas 4.Alabama 5.Georgia 6.USC 7.Ohio 8.Michigan 9.ND 10.LSU
40 weeks 2 days ago	I use (and typically lose)	I use (and typically lose) using my data set that drives the EV calculations but one of the great things about fantasy football is its disconnect between easily measurable and valuable.

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