will be michigan's highest pick in a while
The Weekly Maths: Focused on Paul
Dumb Punt of the Week
I’m tempted to award it to Iowa for punting on 4th and 2 from the MSU 39 last Saturday, but that wouldn’t be fair to Greg Davis whose call sheet’s only play listed for 4th and 2 says: Hail Mary.
This week’s dumb punt of the week goes to the Virginia Cavaliers. Trailing the Fighting Edsalls by 11 with 13 minutes and change left in the game, Virginia was facing 4th and 1 from their own 42. Giving up a precious possession near midfield down two scores in the fourth quarter for the chance to kick a 21 yard punt earns Mike London the Ron Zook Memorial Dumb Punt of the Week.
Not too much exciting on a game chart from a 45-0 nothing for a game that started as a 20+ point favorite. Robinson to Gallon provides the big jump in the first quarter and it was a slow burn off of Illini hope between then and early in the third quarter.
Due to a 17+ point lead in the second half, only first half plays are used to calculate numbers from Saturday’s game.
Rush Offense: +5 EV, +10% WPA
Pass Offense: +6, +15%
Rush Defense: +6, +12%
Pass Defense: +0, –2%
Denard Robinson: +13, +28%
Fitzgerald Toussaint: –2, –2%
Thomas Rawls: +1, 1%
A detailed breakdown of each unit and key contributors. All numbers are opponent adjusted except field position and special teams.
EV+, National Rank (leader), B1G Rank (leader)
Michigan Offense: +3, 24th (Texas A&M), 3rd (Nebraska)
Michigan St Defense: +7, 1st, 1st
Denard Robinson: +4 (rush only), 7th among QB/RBs (Johnny Manziel), 2nd (Braxton Miller)
Fitzgerald Toussaint: –2
Thomas Rawls: -0
Michigan Offense: +3, 27th (Baylor), 2nd (Nebraska)
Michigan St Defense: +5, 12th, 1st
Denard Robinson: +4 (pass only), 21st (Nick Florence), 2nd (Taylor Martinez)
Devin Funchess: +3, 83rd
Jeremy Gallon: +3, 118th
Devin Gardner: +2, 164th
Michigan Defense: +2, 34th (MSU), 4th
Michigan St Offense: –2, 95th, 10th
Le’Veon Bell: -1
Michigan Defense: +4, 23rd (Bama), 4th (MSU)
Michigan St Offense: +0, 59th, 6th
Andrew Maxwell: –2, 109th
Dion Sims: +4, 71st
Aaron Burbridge: +1
2.04 expected points per drive (57th)
2.76 points per drive (30th)
135% conversion (26th)
2.03 expected points per drive (63rd)
1.63 points per drive (99th)
80% conversion (100th)
Michigan: –1, 82nd (TCU), 7th (Iowa)
Michigan St: +0, 52nd, 6th
The defenses should have the upper hand. Michigan’s offense has clearly been better than Sparty’s but the model thinks that so far this year the Michigan State defense has been one of the best in the country. Michigan’s faced two other elite defenses and lost both times. This time they have the advantage of home field and a more defined identity. This is a game that Michigan could certainly lose, but directionally there seems to be much more upside for Michigan than for MSU. Dion Sims’ status could be huge as he is the only Spartan generated much offensive value. If the Denard/Borges fusion can have a good game Paul Bunyan should return to Ann Arbor on Saturday.
Michigan 17 Michigan St 13