kid (i.e., "me") right now. That is fantastic.
The Weekly Six-UConn
This may or may not have been one of the top six swing plays (it was) via Mgoblue.com
1. The Six Factors
|Exp Score||Early Conv||Bonus Yds||Avg 3rd Dist||Adj 3rd Conv||Red Zone|
Thanks to going –1 in the short (or no) field turnover department, Michigan had another game on the wrong side of the field position numbers. On a down by down basis, Michigan really dominated. A large spread on early conversions, a solid lead on bonus yards although 95 isn’t an overwhelming number for the offense. The defense bounced back against the big plays after an uncharacteristic performance against Akron. Michigan also forced UConn into some awful third downs, but the Michigan offense was not good on third downs. Michigan’s game winning field goal was the lone red zone deficiency for either team.
So aside from the turnovers, Mrs. Lincoln, how was the game? The turnovers made the game awful and the offense put forward its least dynamic showing of the season, but the defense looks to be back on track after a bad second half at Akron. As has been noted everywhere, if Devin Gardner can his head back on straight, this could still be an excellent season. The defense should limit the floor and a continuation of this level of turnovers would be unprecedented. The ceiling looks less certain but its definitely not as bad as the last two weeks have felt.
Exp Score: A team’s expected points based on where a team started its drives
Early Conversion: The percentage of first downs' that are converted prior to a third down play
Bonus Yards: All yards gained after the first down marker
Average 3rd Down Distance: Average yards to go on third down
Adjusted 3rd Down Conversion: Rate of conversion for a team on third down, adjusted for the standard conversion rate based on yards to go, 0% is average
Red Zone: Points per red zone trip (TD’s counted as 7 regardless of PAT)
All categories except field position are based solely on plays in competitive situations (all first half plays and any second half plays where the drive begins or ends within two scores).
2. Individual Performances
Devin Gardner: +5.3 +13%
Fitzgerald Toussaint: +4.1, +16%
Lyle McCombs: +0.1, +1%
Chandler Whitmer: –0.7, –34%
Despite all the horrible, awful, no good plays from Gardner he still manages to put up enough good plays to more than offset them. It will be another week or two before I kick in the opponent adjustments, but this will almost certainly be his worst rated game to date.
In terms of overall win contribution, the offense contributed about 60% of the win and defense about 40%. This is actually a pretty high number for the defense.
3. Game Chart & Swing Plays
+11.6% Toussaint scores form 12 yards out to tie it up at 21
-12.2% The punts hits off of D’Mario Jones’ leg and is recovered by UConn
-13.4% Gardner stuffed on 4th down with Michigan trailing by 7
+15.0% Foxx loses 3 on the screen to set up 3rd and 13 on Uconn’s final drive
-15.6% Gardner fumbles on the sneak (-8.4%) and UConn returns it for a TD (-7.2%)
+19.6% Whitmer picked by Morgan (+11.4%) and returned for 29 yards (+8.2%)
So that’s two bad offensive plays, one good offensive play, a bad special teams play and two good defensive plays. Echoes the feeling from the game of the offense being a disaster in general. But after Morgan picked off Whitmer and got a great return, things turned in Michigan’s favor quickly.
The third quarter was just a mess but other than the turnover and some initial yards at the beginning of UConn’s final drive the fourth quarter saw almost every play move the odds in Michigan’s favor.
4. Ron Zook Dumb Punt of the Week
I had a request on twitter to award this to Dantonio for putting in an ice cold Andrew Maxwell for the final drive against Notre Dame. While it probably wouldn’t have mattered either way, it was probably over thinking things a bit. The good news for Michigan State is at least it didn’t add any confusion to a stable quarterback depth chart.
Clemson and NC State kicked the week off on Thursday night with three punts from the opponent’s half of the field and 3 or fewer yards to go.
But I am going to go ahead and give it to Michigan State anyway. Between the Maxwell move and two punts while trailing in the final minutes of the Notre Dame game, the worst being a 4th and 5 from the 45.
Mark Dantonio is your Week 4 Dumb Punter of the Week
Bonus Futile Field Goal of the Week. Austin Peay just wanted to avoid the shut out against the OHIO Bobcats but kicker Walter Spears would have none of it. Spears missed chip shot field goals of 32 and 26 yards and had a 39 yarder blocked on consecutive possessions in the second half as the Governors fell 31-0.
Prediction State of the Stats
|Exp Score||Early Conv||Bonus Yds||Avg 3rd Dist||Adj 3rd Conv||Red Zone|
|Offense||27.6 (48)||52.9% (28)||156 (40)||7.3 (96)||-1% (71)||5.8 (30)|
|Defense||31.1 (106)||44.6 (27)||102 (27)||7.2 (25)||+9% (97)||3.6 (23)|
Devin Gardner: +14 (unadjusted), 22nd in the country/4th in B1G
Fitzgerald Toussaint: +1.4 (unadjusted), 76/10
Michigan Offense: 39th/8
Michigan Defense: 38th/5
The numbers are still pretty loose at this point, most schedules are soft and opponent adjustments haven’t kicked in yet. If Gardner pulls out of his slump, there is plenty of opportunity for him to contend with the top QBs in the country. Currently he trails Taylor Martinez and Nate Sudfeld! and Nathan Scheelhaase! I am as surprised as you. Toussaint is still a long way from the Melvin Gordon’s of the world but is at least in the middle of the pack as opposed to last year.
Although Michigan’s offense is 8th in the conference, the top 8 are pretty packed. With Penn St, Iowa and Purdue in a second tier and then Michigan State way back.
On the six factors the defense has been really solid across all metrics but third downs. The offense has been more sporadic. Good as early conversions and red zone, decent at big plays and below average on third down distance and third downs. The turnovers have created a field position gap of half a TD per game.
6. Bye Week Bonus
Completely unrelated to anything else I do here, but I have been working on the side to design Michigan Stadium out LEGOs. I recently finished the design and have ordered the parts. Hoping to have this one a kind set built and displayed in the next couples. I will try and post some pictures to twitter when it’s done. The final structure will be about 2.5 feet square and nearly a foot tall. For now, here is the final design.
Note: Several people have expressed interest in doing this, email me at themathletebt at gmail if you are one of them
I added some contact info at the bottom if you are interested
That's amazing. My nephew is 3 months old. Looks like a perfect Hannukah present....
That is awesome. How are you handing the part of the bowl below grade?
The hell with kids I'll make one myself.
I have a seven year old boy who loves legos... His homework assignment: "I know it's fall when". His response "Michigan football is on TV"... Together this is win.
I, too, would order one. I will freely admit that, even though I haven't played with them in quite some time, I still love Lego.
How large is the final model going to be? How many bricks are you estimating?
curious as my son and I would like this.
a continuation of this level of turnovers would be unprecedented
Thanks, regression to the mean! We love ya.
Nice! I went the Logo exhibit at the Henry Ford Museum about a year ago. They had a good one of Ford Field. I don't think I've ever seen one of Michigan Stadium.
Is that the Halo? Serious questions. Why the Halo?
The pictures I found and even Google Street view show a yellow trim around the top of the stadium
Build it pre-2010!
Haha, I also noticed the endzones are maize....
Might want to add a giant kraft macaroni noodle too..Got to get those advertising dollars to keep the AD in the black...right mr. athletic director?
A couple of part-time "Model Citizens" (my kid and a friend) say it's the kind of traditional Americana, unique and recognizable, that overseas guests love to see in the USA area at Legoland - California.
They've got Wembley Stadium at the Legoland in Windsor (in England).
Actually my son and I would like to verify this, if MGoBlog wants to sponsor a trip. We should also swing by the one in Bildung. I'll let our San Diego MGoBloggers confirm what's on display at the one in Carlsbad, CA.
Being the huge dork that I am I still collect them. So how many total pieces is this design?
The good news for Michigan State is at least it didn’t add any confusion to a stable quarterback depth chart.
That was so cute when everyone said "what great news that they settled on a quarterback" after the Youngstown State game. Glad to see that's how they measure themselves.
That Lego stadium is amazing. I congratulate you, sir, and look forward to seeing the final product!
All around. At first I thought it was Minecraft. Has anyone done it on there?
Enjoy reading your posts. With Fitz's propensity to try and bounce plays, I've been wondering about the risk/reward proposition. Is it better to average 4 yards a carry with a big gain and a bunch of very small gains/losses or is it better to have lower variance? I throw that out for something you might consider analyzing. Obviously depends on situation, but I'd imagine that could be normalized out somehow.
Dantonio's move for the last series of the game might not be such a head scratcher after all. I've seen reports claiming that Cook had a stinger and couldn't throw the ball over 10 yards on the sideline, meaning a change at QB was needed, and who better to put in during a night game in a hostile environment than the senior who started all last season?
Then again, it could be just somebody's bogus report to provide a bit of cover for Dantonio.
But Cook himself said after the game that he didn't know why he was pulled, so that seems like a cover story.
Interesting that few people seem to care too deeply about your post....
BUT THAT LEGO STADIUM IS AMAZING!
Please, answer some of the questions in this post.
- How many pieces is this set at?
- You are ordering it - it must be extremely expensive, can you give us a ballpark price?
- Your model does not have the field below ground level, does it? Any thought to making that happen? It could be done and would really make it stand out.
Fantastic. Please give us updates. I've considered doing this before but realized it was far too difficult for me to pull off. I'm impressed.
Also, can you make the scoreboard be able to fit an iPod touch? Then we (ok, you, technically) could just insert an ipod while playing UM highlights and the fight song, etc?
Am I asking too much?
Student section looks empty in that model....seems pretty accurate to me.
Great Lego set. Maybe work Beyonce onto the scoreboard for the enhanced version? Or there's always Kate.
Are you planning on releasing the Six Factors data for other teams?
THE BIG HOUSE, It should have 98 rows of seats.
I emailed you then figured I'd stick it here too: make one seat an off-color for Mr. Crisler.
Interesting that most of the comments involve the Lego Michigan Stadium ... which you better license the concept because if Lego offered this series ... you could have a nice reward $$$
However - if you can somehow create a statistical model that has Devin +5.3 for the UConn game then IMO the current model must be scrapped (or perhaps you are counting points scored by Devin regardless of what team scored the points? /s). Seriously, if anyone has garbage statistics in the result should also = GARBAGE.
I am trying to be optimist ... but +5.3 ???
Someone needs to Minecraft The Big House!
I would buy the game just to look at it!