Raiding the B1G-er Big Ten: Recruiting Prospects in Maryland and Rutgers Territory

Submitted by The Mathlete on

With the addition of Maryland and Rutgers the conversation has centered around WHY, WHY, WHY, TV sets and whether or not this was just a cover for Delaney to ditch Leaders and Legends. MGoUser trppwlbrnID asked the question that should always be asked, what about recruiting?

With the addition of the two schools, I dug into their recruiting bases and how much opportunity there might be for Michigan to jump into some new territories.

Maryland

image

Home state of Maryland recruits (2009-2013 classes) weighted by consensus rating

Nearly half of Maryland’s last five classes have come from Maryland and Washington, DC. These two regions would have the most likely opportunity for Michigan. Pennsylvania, Georgia and Florida are regions that aren’t going to give any advantage because Maryland has joined the Big Ten.

Rutgers

image

Home state of Rutgers recruits (2009-2013 classes) weighted by consensus rating

Over half of Rutgers’ recruits came from the home state of New Jersey. Like Maryland, Rutgers has looked to Pennsylvania and Florida as key secondary regions. So that leaves just the home regions of New Jersey, Maryland and DC as areas that Maryland and Rutgers have had success that seem viable for Michigan to make new inroads into.

 

Over the last five years, there have been 73 players from New Jersey, Maryland and DC that have garnered a consensus 4 star level rating. Five schools have signed at least four of these players. Penn St has signed 9 of these players while the new members of the Big Ten have signed 7 each. Florida and Michigan have each signed four. When you look at the totals by conference (excluding Maryland and Rutgers from any conference) the Big Ten is already the leading team in recruiting these key regions.

Conference/Team Recruits
B1G 19
ACC 15
SEC 10
Pac-12 9
Big 12 3
Notre Dame 3

The Big Ten is already getting about a third of the players not going to the new members. Adding Maryland and Rutgers into the Big Ten count gives them 45% of the top recruits from the region. In terms of quantity, there doesn’t seem to be much upside for Michigan in the newly acquired regions on a quantity basis. Some of the ACC signees may end up going B1G but even taking a third of these players is still just one extra recruit for the conference per year.

 

The Elite Opportunity

During the same five year period, the Maryland/Rutgers region has produced 15 players who were consensus Top 100 level players only one signed with a Big Ten team (Eli Apple, OSU) and Maryland (Stefon Diggs) and Rutgers (Darius Hamilton, Savon Huggins) were each only able to sign three of the fifteen.  Of the other 11, four went to other ACC schools, 3 to the SEC, 3 to the Pac-12 (one of which was the embattled Yuri Wright) and one to Notre Dame.

Overall, the Big 10 and Michigan already have a solid presence in the local areas where Maryland and Rutgers have the most success. The area that seems the most likely for Michigan to gain a new advantage will be the elite level recruits that have been avoiding the Big Ten presently.

The Michigan Opportunity

As noted above, Michigan is already doing better than most at signing 4 star talent from the region. There is certainly an opportunity to do more, but this shouldn’t be a major change for Michigan. The biggest windows of opportunity are probably in some of the Top 100 type players. Recent names such as Stefon Diggs and Kendall Fuller are players who Michigan might have had a better shot at with the new footprint (although Fuller’s recruiting did overlap with the news). This isn’t a massively talent rich region but it has enough to produce a couple elite prospects annually. Michigan and Ohio should be most poised to step in and take advantage, especially with Penn State buried for the next several recruiting cycles.

The more difficult to quantify opportunity is probably Virginia. Maryland isn’t a major player in the state, but with the Derrick Green commitment and the recruitment of Da’Shawn Hand the opportunity to play two games in neighboring Maryland should definitely help solidify Michigan’s position as a major player in Virginia recruiting.

Comments

woomba

May 22nd, 2013 at 2:45 PM ^

based on the new conference makeups or historical?

 

I think the most interesting dynamic that's going to play out now is what's going to happen to North East talent going forward. 4 of the top 5 conferences have a base in this area and I'm really curious how this is going to play out in the recruiting trail...

Big Ten : Penn State / NJ / Maryland

Big 12 : West Virginia

ACC : Boston College / Syracuse / Pitt / (Virginia/Va Tech)

AAC : U Conn

 

Victor Hale II

May 22nd, 2013 at 2:45 PM ^

Should the bolded heading above the Rutgers pie chart say "Rutgers" as opposed to "Virginia"?

Regardless, nice work. As did many others, I said from the moment Rutgers and Maryland joined the conference that their addition would very likely help Michigan's football recruiting. There is a good amount of football talent in NJ and MD, with the added bonus of VA being nearby.

Fitz

May 22nd, 2013 at 3:12 PM ^

I think being guaranteed a couple of games just a state or 2 away from home could be a pretty big draw for kids from VA, especially the kids whose parents would prefer they stay close to home. With that, players like Green and Speight commiting and the series with VT in a couple years Michigan should be able to establish a pretty decent pipeline in VA.

Drunk Uncle

May 22nd, 2013 at 6:25 PM ^

This is interesting. I also wondered how Nebraska joining the B1G would open up the intermontane west. Nebraska is pretty big out here and has dominated recruiting after CU slipped. I don't remember many recruits from this region in the Carr days.

'12 Sione Houma - UT

'13 Chris Fox - CO 

'14 Bryan Mone - UT

We looked at Skipper, McCaffery, Kozan...  

OSU got a guy last year.  

 

 

 

Tater

May 22nd, 2013 at 7:39 PM ^

I don't think the opportunity is there for football nearly as much as basketball.  If NYC, DC, and Philly become easier to recruit due to the proximiity of Maryland and Rutgers, it could make a difference.  If it helps Michigan get even one elite recruit from one of those areas every four years, it would be a great development, and well worth having them in the conference. 

 

maizeonblueaction

May 22nd, 2013 at 8:20 PM ^

will be psychological and show itself over time. It seems like with the SEC, there is this really intense regionalism that says someone from Virginia should go to Auburn because it's "close to home" (which maybe it is because of the southernness). I could see the same thing going on over time with the B1G, if kids from New Jersey or something suddenly see Michigan as a "local" school, as it's no farther from NJ than Florida is from Alabama, and all the fairly close schools in major conferences locally just aren't at a super high level.

maizeonblueaction

May 23rd, 2013 at 12:00 AM ^

6 out of 24 top 150 "East" (which includes VA) players went to a B1G school, plus 2 more to Pitt or Notre Dame, which are in the B1G footprint currently. Seven went to the ACC not counting Pitt and Notre Dame, 6 went to the ACC, and the rest went out West. It seems to me if there becomes a fight for the top players in the region, the SEC won't be super affected, as it didn't have a school there to begin with. I could see the shift take place in whether Maryland and Rutgers can take a few guys who might otherwise have gone to an ACC school, or if one of the good B1G East programs can get another couple guys to come there due to proximity. Out of the 2014 guys, there are 16 in the top 150, and 2 have already committed to Michigan and 3 going to the ACC. The Big East is effectively gone, so that will no longer be a player. There are 3-4 who might still go to a B1G program (Peppers, Hand, Brown, with Tabor an OSU lean), and I haven't heard about any of the other guys, so it's likely they end up at an ACC or SEC school, which would mean the breakdown could be 5-6 B1G commits out of 16, and maybe higher, as I don't follow PSU recruiting, and don't know who Rutgers could land, so it is an improvement.

NoVaWolverine

May 28th, 2013 at 9:31 AM ^

Thanks for this, Mathlete. You're right that U-M already has a pretty good presence at the best high school programs in this region, particularly Maryland's turf.  For example, while it's true we didn't get CB Kendall Fuller or LB Dorian O'Daniel last year or Stefon Diggs the year before, a couple years back we got another cornerback almost as highly ranked from the same Maryland football powerhouse as these kids (Our Lady of Good Counsel) -- a guy named Blake Countess. Maybe the prospect of these kids being able to play a couple games close to home will help Michigan snag one or two extra 4/5-star players from these schools every few years, and that can't hurt.

I'm also excited about the prospect of getting more players out of Virginia. As Green and Hand show, there's some good talent in Va that will consider Michigan if we get in on them early enough, and the chance for them to play some games close to home will help.