Of course, for three straight football seasons, MSU has beaten U-M head-to-head and in the standings, and Spartans still hear, "Okay, but that doesn't mean you're like, better than us now" from Wolverines. One season of the basketball shoe being on the other foot doesn't mean regime change.
I was born in '81, and was a student at State when Mason took the AD gig. The Munn sellout streak lasted pretty much from before my conscious memory until I was a grown-assed man. I remember the national title in '86, a bevy of CCHA titles and tourney titles, a zillion NCAA tourney appearances . . . c'mon. Right NOW, is State a national power? Obviously not. When I was a tyke? Definitely.
Apparently Anastos's been coaching his daughters' club teams this whole time, so it's not like he literally has not coached hockey in 20 years . . . plus, the world of hockey is inbred enough that powerful insiders of any stripe are powerful insiders, so he should theoretically be able to recruit.
That all having been said, I hope there are a couple of home-run X-and-O/game coach assistants involved in this, and it turns out to be a crazy-like-a-fox hire instead of just a flat-out crazy hire.
I'm no expert when it comes to junior and college hockey; I was only dimly aware of possible candidates and make no pretense about being able to make a better hire myself. But I love the sport, I love the school, and my son plays. I spent my whole life being fed the idea that MSU is a national power, but today feels like the day that's over forever.
Of course it figures that this morning I let my son open his birthday present a day early, so he could wear it to practice tonight:
Thanks many times over, Brian, for the dap (and the linkage, and posting the petition). "Detroit City" with a rock for the crest? Makes all the sense in the world.
I don't think Hennechart numbers translate between Lloyd and RR offenses. Football Outsiders was just talking about this the other day; traditional success metrics (like completion percentage) are quickly losing relevance as offenses push the edge of the high-percentage-pass envelope. When everyone's throwing screens and 5-yard curls to wide-open slot ninjas, the traditional measures of "accuracy" are blown out of the water. You don't need to have Sammy-Baugh-zipping-passes-through-a-swinging-tire accuracy to complete 60% of your passes anymore.
How many screen passes (theoretically, a pass that should be complete 90%+ of the time) has Denard been throwing compared to Henne? How many high-risk/high-reward downfield throws has Denard been asked to make, compared to Henne?
Overall, good start on disproving the "Denard Can't Run This Offense" meme, but maybe delve deeper into the UFRs.
Someone talked me into doing Quiz Bowl my senior year of high school. In my one season, I had twice as many correct answers as anyone else had attempts--and I had three times as many attempts as corrects. I think my attempts were greater than the rest of the team put together . . . and yes. Arrogance: I haz it.
For what it's worth, I made second-team all-conference that year.
Beautifully done, mathematically sound--and best of all, it dovetails perfectly with what we see in reality. I think the key to improving the PPD in pressure situations, or with leads, will be improving the skill position talent. Having a tailback who can keep a drive going by himself, or receiving options that can make big plays out of low-risk passes, will take a lot of the pressure off of Denard.
Plucky teenagers with swords and spiky hair aren't the best choice for besting hundred-million-year-old space monsters, either, but Chrono Trigger is still the best videogame ever. Is there any more universal children's fantasy than showing dumb old grownups how its' done?
BTW, I thought Rowling effectively warded off the Snitch/Seeker deus ex machina effect. Didn't a World--er, Quidditch--Cup knockout round ended with a seeker catching the snitch when his team was down 160?
I agree wholeheartedly with the editorial asides, and it's because I've been saying the same thing at my Lions blog. Saying "Well if Denard just doesn't throw any interceptions, we win" isn't productive--just as the "Well if the Lions just don't commit 15 penalties a game, we win" piece every Lions blogger's been writing for weeks isn't productive either.
There's a difference between coachable mental mistakes, like Cliff Avril's late hit on Eli Manning, and talent issues, like "oh no I'm getting burned so I'd better grab this guy's jersey and pray."
I'm thinking about writing a diary about the nature of the rivalry, and the role geography plays. I know a lot of Spartans' opinions about Michigan fans are informed by the Michigan fans in the Lansing area, and a lot of Michigan fans' impressions of Spartan fans are formed by . . . well, juggalos.
I was really bummed when I found out "The Enlightened Spartan" was taken by a predictably non-enlightened Spartan. I swear to God, most of us are not like that.
What an amazing, classy, awesome thread. Kudos all around, MGoUsers.
To return the favor:
* I've always been a huge Dhani Jones fan; I love football players who are much more than football players, and that's Dhani to a T. If you don't want his show on the Travel Channel, you are losing out big time. His endless quest to educate himself about different cultures and social strata is one I deeply respect.
* Rich Eisen is probably the most underrated sports media guy on the planet.
* I have had a world of respect for a long series of smart, tough, productive U-M O-Lineman: Long, Backus, Hutch, Jansen, all the way back to Skrepenak.
. . . when all the penetration, shoving, coming-unblocked, etc. that forced the play back to Mouton isn't happening. I remain skeptical about a stack's ability to stop the run against Big Ten lines composed of 320-plus-pounders.
In my mind, MSU and FAU have no business playing each other to begin with. I love my team and I love gamedays, but they shouldn't be playing tomato cans ever, let alone at Ford Field.
Now, you may well be right about UM outdrawing MSU at theoretical meaningless netural site games . . . that and six dollars will get you a cup of coffee at Caribou, I guess.
Also, traveling to LA is a "thing", a big deal you can make a big trip out of. Traveling to Detroit from the Lansing area is in the uncomfortable middle ground between "conveniently close" and "exotically far away."
. . . I'm not sure I buy "sell out any stadium anywhere on no notice" as the only benchmark of an "established program," but if that's it, then cool--MSU is not an established program. In fact, I'd be inclined to agree anyway. This season is pivotal for Dantonio's tenure, and in a truly established program, no season is pivotal.
This game is a desperate, stupid money/attention grab. Tickets weren't included in season ticket packages, driving is a major pain in the ass, and all for a dog of an opponent we'd be horrified to have give us an exciting game.
Playing a tomato can is one thing when you can roll out of bed, tailgate at your usual spot, and go on about your typical gameday business--but to pay a typical-game price per seat, drive for 90 minutes, park, not be able to tailgate, and then be 90 minutes from home when the festivities are done? Maybe for a half-decent opponent, but c'mon. There was not a clamoring for this.
If M played a "road" game against UAB in Theoretically Double-Sized Kelly/Shorts Stadium, and charged season-ticket holders and students full price, I wouldn't expect TDSKSS to sell out either.
You're allowed to buy into it 100%; Denard is vastly improved, and will show flashes of Saturday's game throughout the year. What you're not allowed to do is go on Twitter and be all "Denard is the best QB in the Big Ten," like Lamarr Woodley did.
. . . it's kind of like when you listen to the Jim Rome show for the first time; the in-joke density is so high you don't even understand what's being discussed, let alone find it funny. I'll chalk it up to it being a me problem.
The goodbye post on TSN read far more like an obituary than a "We've Moved!" sign; I read it and grieved on teh Twitterz. Fortunately, said Twitterz quickly enlightened me as to the acquisition and stuff.
Well, "Congratulations" if you're happy; my condolences if not.
I was there for Perry's 51-carry performance. It was the most draining, soul-crushing experience I've had as a fan. Knowing--knowing--that every time Perry touches the ball, five yards will happen, third downs will be converted, and the clock will roll on . . .
On that day, Perry was inexorable, irresistible defeat, grinding MSU into the turf and burying them under his weight, like a glacier but fast. I have ever since cited that game as the ideal offense: when you gain five yards on every carry, you never fail to convert, and you never surrender the ball. When judging football success Panthro-style, Chris Perry vs. MSU in 2003 was perfection.
That their current head coach is well reputed as one of the only ones out there scouring the Internet for exactly this kind of analysis. He's friends with all the Football Outsiders guys, and reads their stuff regularly.
"If we want bigger commercial forests, then we should consume more paper, not less."
Most of our argument circled around his refusal to accept that tree farms run by paper mills are not fungible with old growth forests. Turning all of America into a parking lot, but consoling ourselves by knowing there are truly impressive stands of quick-growth pine somewhere in Florida, wouldn't be a Brave New World that puts the lie to "ecologist dogma," it'd just be destructive stupidity.
I once got into an extensive debate with an economist about the "environmentalist dogma" taught in schools--such as, "if we want to have trees, we should not cut them down." He explained that if the demand for trees is high, the supply will rise to meet it--so if we want lots of trees around, we should seek to consume as much fresh-logged timber as possible.
I wish I was kidding.
I've been doing quite a bit of investigation into the correlation between pass rush and pass defense, and running regressions a-plenty. With no formal training, I've had to continually step back and make sure I'm following the data, and not making the data follow me. I think, though, that two factors have been crucial in applying these statistical mechanisms to sports statistics:
1) Having a thorough understanding of what's actually happening on the field, both to filter out meaningless correlations, and to dig deeper when "common sense" relationships aren't found, and
2) Starting with a specific hypothesis that I didn't come up with. Testing someone else's hypothesis is much easier to do dispassionately than poking sacred cows with numbers and seeing if any pop.
If you're the "prophet in the wilderness," screaming that everyone's most trusted assumptions have been wrong and oh look I have maths to prove it, you look brilliant--and, what's more, become a made man for the rest of your career. Being that right, once, when everyone else has been wrong for forever? It gives you HUGE latitude to be as wrong as you want, all the way to the bank, to the tune of two or three book deals.
Recent Comments
Many thanks.
The greatest acheivement of all human science and engineering combined is no match for Hockeybear.
Peace
Ty
"Pros: Ammunition for 4chan."
It's been a long time since Munn regularly hosted "one of the best crowds" in college hockey.
Peace
Ty
"MSU fans don't show up to their own building, and didn't even when they were good."
Starting in 1985, MSU had a 17-year, 323-consecutive-game sellout streak: http://www.msuspartans.com/facilities/munn-arena.html
Obviously, times have changed, but let's not rewrite history.
Peace
Ty
Hilarious. Excellent work.
Peace
Ty
Of course, for three straight football seasons, MSU has beaten U-M head-to-head and in the standings, and Spartans still hear, "Okay, but that doesn't mean you're like, better than us now" from Wolverines. One season of the basketball shoe being on the other foot doesn't mean regime change.
Peace
Ty
I was born in '81, and was a student at State when Mason took the AD gig. The Munn sellout streak lasted pretty much from before my conscious memory until I was a grown-assed man. I remember the national title in '86, a bevy of CCHA titles and tourney titles, a zillion NCAA tourney appearances . . . c'mon. Right NOW, is State a national power? Obviously not. When I was a tyke? Definitely.
Peace
Ty
Thanks.
Peace
Ty
He's been asking for a Mohawk for months. Finally caved.
Peace
Ty
Apparently Anastos's been coaching his daughters' club teams this whole time, so it's not like he literally has not coached hockey in 20 years . . . plus, the world of hockey is inbred enough that powerful insiders of any stripe are powerful insiders, so he should theoretically be able to recruit.
That all having been said, I hope there are a couple of home-run X-and-O/game coach assistants involved in this, and it turns out to be a crazy-like-a-fox hire instead of just a flat-out crazy hire.
Peace
Ty
The State thing is in the blood; can't shake that--but yeah, on the Red Wings we have accord.
Peace
Ty
I'm no expert when it comes to junior and college hockey; I was only dimly aware of possible candidates and make no pretense about being able to make a better hire myself. But I love the sport, I love the school, and my son plays. I spent my whole life being fed the idea that MSU is a national power, but today feels like the day that's over forever.
Of course it figures that this morning I let my son open his birthday present a day early, so he could wear it to practice tonight:
Peace
Ty
Thanks many times over, Brian, for the dap (and the linkage, and posting the petition). "Detroit City" with a rock for the crest? Makes all the sense in the world.
Peace
Ty
Nope, that's Ty Duffy; the confusion's understandable.
I'm actually a Spartan, but I enjoy the company of MGoFolk.
Peace
Ty
I don't think Hennechart numbers translate between Lloyd and RR offenses. Football Outsiders was just talking about this the other day; traditional success metrics (like completion percentage) are quickly losing relevance as offenses push the edge of the high-percentage-pass envelope. When everyone's throwing screens and 5-yard curls to wide-open slot ninjas, the traditional measures of "accuracy" are blown out of the water. You don't need to have Sammy-Baugh-zipping-passes-through-a-swinging-tire accuracy to complete 60% of your passes anymore.
How many screen passes (theoretically, a pass that should be complete 90%+ of the time) has Denard been throwing compared to Henne? How many high-risk/high-reward downfield throws has Denard been asked to make, compared to Henne?
Overall, good start on disproving the "Denard Can't Run This Offense" meme, but maybe delve deeper into the UFRs.
Peace
Ty
Someone talked me into doing Quiz Bowl my senior year of high school. In my one season, I had twice as many correct answers as anyone else had attempts--and I had three times as many attempts as corrects. I think my attempts were greater than the rest of the team put together . . . and yes. Arrogance: I haz it.
For what it's worth, I made second-team all-conference that year.
Peace
Ty
Beautifully done, mathematically sound--and best of all, it dovetails perfectly with what we see in reality. I think the key to improving the PPD in pressure situations, or with leads, will be improving the skill position talent. Having a tailback who can keep a drive going by himself, or receiving options that can make big plays out of low-risk passes, will take a lot of the pressure off of Denard.
Peace
Ty
Going 12-0 and playing in the Rose Bowl, while Boise State gets pistol-whipped by Alabama.
Peace
Ty
Plucky teenagers with swords and spiky hair aren't the best choice for besting hundred-million-year-old space monsters, either, but Chrono Trigger is still the best videogame ever. Is there any more universal children's fantasy than showing dumb old grownups how its' done?
BTW, I thought Rowling effectively warded off the Snitch/Seeker deus ex machina effect. Didn't a World--er, Quidditch--Cup knockout round ended with a seeker catching the snitch when his team was down 160?
Peace
Ty
I agree wholeheartedly with the editorial asides, and it's because I've been saying the same thing at my Lions blog. Saying "Well if Denard just doesn't throw any interceptions, we win" isn't productive--just as the "Well if the Lions just don't commit 15 penalties a game, we win" piece every Lions blogger's been writing for weeks isn't productive either.
There's a difference between coachable mental mistakes, like Cliff Avril's late hit on Eli Manning, and talent issues, like "oh no I'm getting burned so I'd better grab this guy's jersey and pray."
Peace
Ty
I'm thinking about writing a diary about the nature of the rivalry, and the role geography plays. I know a lot of Spartans' opinions about Michigan fans are informed by the Michigan fans in the Lansing area, and a lot of Michigan fans' impressions of Spartan fans are formed by . . . well, juggalos.
Peace
Ty
I was really bummed when I found out "The Enlightened Spartan" was taken by a predictably non-enlightened Spartan. I swear to God, most of us are not like that.
Peace
Ty
. . . was just sentenced to two years in the federal pokey for accepting bribes as a county commissioner. That's really terrible news.
Peace
Ty
What an amazing, classy, awesome thread. Kudos all around, MGoUsers.
To return the favor:
* I've always been a huge Dhani Jones fan; I love football players who are much more than football players, and that's Dhani to a T. If you don't want his show on the Travel Channel, you are losing out big time. His endless quest to educate himself about different cultures and social strata is one I deeply respect.
* Rich Eisen is probably the most underrated sports media guy on the planet.
* I have had a world of respect for a long series of smart, tough, productive U-M O-Lineman: Long, Backus, Hutch, Jansen, all the way back to Skrepenak.
Peace
Ty
Michigan State 38, Michigan 35
Peace
Ty
Cousins is a junior.
Peace
Ty
. . . when all the penetration, shoving, coming-unblocked, etc. that forced the play back to Mouton isn't happening. I remain skeptical about a stack's ability to stop the run against Big Ten lines composed of 320-plus-pounders.
Peace
Ty
The best part was how all the little things were perfect--the timing, the credits, etc. Clearly a labor of love and devastatingly effective.
Peace
Ty
. . . I had to go and start a blog about it: http://www.thelionsinwinter.com/
In my mind, MSU and FAU have no business playing each other to begin with. I love my team and I love gamedays, but they shouldn't be playing tomato cans ever, let alone at Ford Field.
Now, you may well be right about UM outdrawing MSU at theoretical meaningless netural site games . . . that and six dollars will get you a cup of coffee at Caribou, I guess.
Peace
Ty
Key words, of course: "1995", and "Virginia".
Also, traveling to LA is a "thing", a big deal you can make a big trip out of. Traveling to Detroit from the Lansing area is in the uncomfortable middle ground between "conveniently close" and "exotically far away."
. . . I'm not sure I buy "sell out any stadium anywhere on no notice" as the only benchmark of an "established program," but if that's it, then cool--MSU is not an established program. In fact, I'd be inclined to agree anyway. This season is pivotal for Dantonio's tenure, and in a truly established program, no season is pivotal.
Peace
Ty
This game is a desperate, stupid money/attention grab. Tickets weren't included in season ticket packages, driving is a major pain in the ass, and all for a dog of an opponent we'd be horrified to have give us an exciting game.
Playing a tomato can is one thing when you can roll out of bed, tailgate at your usual spot, and go on about your typical gameday business--but to pay a typical-game price per seat, drive for 90 minutes, park, not be able to tailgate, and then be 90 minutes from home when the festivities are done? Maybe for a half-decent opponent, but c'mon. There was not a clamoring for this.
If M played a "road" game against UAB in Theoretically Double-Sized Kelly/Shorts Stadium, and charged season-ticket holders and students full price, I wouldn't expect TDSKSS to sell out either.
Peace
Ty
I tried it with the Lions last year and got one preseason game done two weeks after it was played.
It's insane. It's genius. It's tremendous.
Peace
Ty
You're allowed to buy into it 100%; Denard is vastly improved, and will show flashes of Saturday's game throughout the year. What you're not allowed to do is go on Twitter and be all "Denard is the best QB in the Big Ten," like Lamarr Woodley did.
Peace
Ty
. . . it's kind of like when you listen to the Jim Rome show for the first time; the in-joke density is so high you don't even understand what's being discussed, let alone find it funny. I'll chalk it up to it being a me problem.
Peace
Ty
It's here:
http://www.everydayshouldbesaturday.com/2010/9/2/1657904/football-season-is-over-football#45871572
Warning: Spartan Content. Also Adorable Little Kid pic.
Peace
Ty
Well played.
Peace
Ty
See, the fact that you hate that you have to hate us is proof that you really do hate us.
Peace
Ty
How am I this bad at the Internets?
. . . but not like this. Not like this.
Peace
Ty
I appreciate it.
Peace
Ty
I come here because the content is incredible . . . I'm a Spartan fan, for crying out loud. You can vote anywhere.
Peace
Ty
Reply to anything you vote up.
As I did.
Peace
Ty
The goodbye post on TSN read far more like an obituary than a "We've Moved!" sign; I read it and grieved on teh Twitterz. Fortunately, said Twitterz quickly enlightened me as to the acquisition and stuff.
Well, "Congratulations" if you're happy; my condolences if not.
Peace
Ty
I was there for Perry's 51-carry performance. It was the most draining, soul-crushing experience I've had as a fan. Knowing--knowing--that every time Perry touches the ball, five yards will happen, third downs will be converted, and the clock will roll on . . .
On that day, Perry was inexorable, irresistible defeat, grinding MSU into the turf and burying them under his weight, like a glacier but fast. I have ever since cited that game as the ideal offense: when you gain five yards on every carry, you never fail to convert, and you never surrender the ball. When judging football success Panthro-style, Chris Perry vs. MSU in 2003 was perfection.
Peace
Ty
That their current head coach is well reputed as one of the only ones out there scouring the Internet for exactly this kind of analysis. He's friends with all the Football Outsiders guys, and reads their stuff regularly.
Nice try, though.
Peace
Ty
"If we want bigger commercial forests, then we should consume more paper, not less."
Most of our argument circled around his refusal to accept that tree farms run by paper mills are not fungible with old growth forests. Turning all of America into a parking lot, but consoling ourselves by knowing there are truly impressive stands of quick-growth pine somewhere in Florida, wouldn't be a Brave New World that puts the lie to "ecologist dogma," it'd just be destructive stupidity.
Peace
Ty
I once got into an extensive debate with an economist about the "environmentalist dogma" taught in schools--such as, "if we want to have trees, we should not cut them down." He explained that if the demand for trees is high, the supply will rise to meet it--so if we want lots of trees around, we should seek to consume as much fresh-logged timber as possible.
I wish I was kidding.
I've been doing quite a bit of investigation into the correlation between pass rush and pass defense, and running regressions a-plenty. With no formal training, I've had to continually step back and make sure I'm following the data, and not making the data follow me. I think, though, that two factors have been crucial in applying these statistical mechanisms to sports statistics:
1) Having a thorough understanding of what's actually happening on the field, both to filter out meaningless correlations, and to dig deeper when "common sense" relationships aren't found, and
2) Starting with a specific hypothesis that I didn't come up with. Testing someone else's hypothesis is much easier to do dispassionately than poking sacred cows with numbers and seeing if any pop.
Peace
Ty
If you're the "prophet in the wilderness," screaming that everyone's most trusted assumptions have been wrong and oh look I have maths to prove it, you look brilliant--and, what's more, become a made man for the rest of your career. Being that right, once, when everyone else has been wrong for forever? It gives you HUGE latitude to be as wrong as you want, all the way to the bank, to the tune of two or three book deals.
Peace
Ty