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Nick's Question: Isaiah Todd happened. How does this change your outlook for the Juwan Howard era?

Ace: Pulling in Todd raises my expectations a little bit. The fear with Howard’s recruiting approach was that he’d too often lose out to the blue blood programs and end up with teams of backup plans. Todd doesn’t look like anyone’s backup plan and, in addition to finalist Kansas, he had offers from Kentucky, Memphis, UNC, UCLA, and Villanova. Five-stars tend to follow five-stars, too, so my hopes for the critical 2020 class are up as well.

David: He's just going to either fill out the class well enough or continue getting guys like that. If one/both, then, yes, I agree with Ace.

Bryan: The "momentum" part of it feels pretty important. Not only did he hit of a five-star, he hit on one of the first of his targeted guys to drop. Grabbing a blue-chipper any time is great, but this opens up the possibility for a "[TBD] Five" class.

Brian: I think it's more of an indicator of how Howard's going to do in the world of high-end basketball recruiting than a program-defining commit. Realistically, Todd's going to be... GRIII, maybe with a power mushroom? That's nice to have for a year, but it's not going to win a title.

Honestly Hunter Dickinson would be a much bigger commit, just because he's going to be around for a while.

Ace: I mean, 6'10" GRIII with a power mushroom. And possibly a three-point shot. That can swing some things.

David: And he should have Franz and senior Livers with him for his year.

Brian: I don't want to downplay Todd, but hyping up the five-star one-and-done as a program-changer is often a disappointment. See Romeo Langford last year. Nassir Little was similar at UNC, but UNC is a program; Indiana is currently not one.

Ace: I do agree that Dickinson would probably have a bigger impact on the program, also because that would be a head-to-head win over Duke instead of can’t-throw-bags-right-now Kansas.

David: And they will need a Teske Replacement/Castleton backup.

Brian: I don't think Michigan is going to recruit like Duke or Kentucky so filling in the pieces around the one and done is as or more important. A guy like Moses Moody or Dickinson, who can fulfill Michigan's traditional two-and-through model, starts getting you there.

Todd helps you get those guys, of course.

Ace: He also raises the ceiling considerably. He’ll be filling a spot where most Beilein teams would be plugging in a guy they developed from three-star range.

Bryan: And, taking a step back, it's always nice when the reported "this is how this hire will succeed" plan actually looks plausible in its first road test.

(And no, I'm not mumbling #SpeedInSpace while I type that.)

Brian: Yeah, the "Kentucky can't take everyone" approach got a strike, and largely because Howard was able to connect with a kid who has NBA dreams and a very protective mother. This video provides a lot of background on Todd:

Ace: I also like the actual basketball implications! I worried Howard might go a little too far in the 90s-ball direction given some of the offers he had out there to bigs, but Todd is a very modern power forward—he’s got some handles and you’ll see him shoot some pull-up threes on film. If he fills out he still has plenty of ability on the interior but it doesn’t look like they’ll go full-blown bully ball.

He should at least be a catch-and-shoot threat and he’ll also be a nightmare to account for at the dunker spot. Plus there’s a little bit of potential to run 4-5 pick-and-rolls with him, which would be very fun.

David: Matt Painter disagrees, Ace.

[Hit THE JUMP for more on the implications of landing "a pterodactyl with a Dirk fadeaway."]

Seth: What I like about it is I can't overstate how important it is to establish something Howard's program does beyond Beilein's. Fans complained for the whole run but they also went deep into the tournament and got Painter games and such.

If Howard came in and ran Beilein's program worse than Beilein, there's no way to climb out of that hole of mediocrity. This feels new, even if it's not necessarily better. People are going on posters. Other people's people.

Ace: It’s also hard to expect anyone to have Beilein’s X’s and O’s acumen, so raising the recruiting ceiling was necessary.

Brian: Also Beilein's development is unparalleled. If you go by recruiting rankings Beilein was blah, but if you look at the NBA draft Michigan was up there just behind the one-and-done factories.

Ace: Also, aside from Caris (and GRIII, I guess, since he dropped to the second round), those guys have not outperformed their draft slot. Which indicates Beilein got the most he could out of them.

Brian: You could argue DJ, too, but yes.

Seth: I'm coming from the perspective that Howard would not have been a top candidate if Beilein hadn't left when he did. This is a shot at maintaining Beilein's level, and frankly the only shot Juwan gets. If he came in and watched Kansas/Kentucky/Duke take all the guys who had high Michigan interest, and mucked about in the Minnesota region for two years, nobody would bother to wait to see how he develops. Todd is the--to visit the verboten MLB for a sec--Pudge Rodriguez whose decision makes the new thing seem viable.

Brian: But anyway the point is that to maintain the level of the program Howard almost certainly had to raise the recruiting profile and this is a big step towards doing that.

Ace: Michigan should also be getting a pretty fun basketball player for a year.

Alex: You don’t see 6’10 guys who can handle and create like him and while his best basketball will come years after he leaves Ann Arbor, nobody in the Big Ten will be able to guard him. Shot selection and aggressiveness will ultimately be most important for him while he’s here. Could be first-team all-conference and a top five pick if he’s got it all together. And the defensive potential is off the charts — he’s like a prototype 4 at the next level.

Bryan: So, does this style of recruiting increase or decrease variability from year to year? Relying on one-and-done types creates more turnover, but relying on development of sleeper-types runs the risk of having some dry spells.

Ace: Beilein would’ve been almost stunningly consistent if not for Caris’s foot. It does feel like the year-to-year changes are going to increase, along with variance.

David: And probably Irvin's back.

Todd Five!

Brian: Let's see how the rest of the class comes together. If it's Todd/Zeb/Dickinson/Jace/Moody that's four guys who are going to be in the program a while and then the one-and-done. (A while in this context equals two years, I guess.)

Seth: That class would need a ____ Five name.

Brian: Hooray! Todd Five!

Seth: Frankly Incredible We're Still Alive Five

David: No Spare Scholarships Finally Five

Ace: This is a bad gimmicky top five.

Brian: I'm leery of having the recruiting model be a bunch of one-and-dones just because I don't think Michigan is capable of getting them as consistently as true blue-bloods, but having scholarship #13 go to a one-and-done annually is a thing I could get behind.

Seth: I don't even think that's possible. There are FAR easier places to set up your 1-and-done factory than Michigan.

Brian: One slot is the Dave Kingman slot and the others target guys in that 30-70 range that make up big chunks of the best teams in CBB annually.

Bryan: (This is a Michigan blog. That's the Rob Deer slot)

Ace: Man, Howard’s first commit was a five-star. I think he can pull one a year. They’re still in on multiple others!

Alex: We’re shooting for the UK / Duke model. Definitely room for that in the B1G and while there are drawbacks to that model, it generally helps to be way more talented than your opponents!

Seems like those types of teams can be foiled by poor shooting (or maybe that’s just Cal’s problem specifically) but pursuing Moody is a positive sign in that regard, that Juwan doesn’t just want guys who are like “oh yeah that dude looks like he’s going to the NBA” without specific considerations to fit at this level.

WOULD BE NICE.

Brian: If he's able to pull Jaden Springer all bets are off.

Seth: Until you're winning championships you always get your best class in the first one, when you can sell guys on the vision of creating a new legacy for the program, and your opposition doesn't yet know how to recruit against you. (First one being your first whole cycle.)

Ace: And Howard did not get a full cycle here. That’s another part of this that’s really impressive. He had to hit the ground sprinting. Five-star recruiting cycles are, like, three years.

Bryan: And Todd wasn't one of the guys that Howard had an in on already, was he?

Brian: No, nothing.

Ace: Nobody was talking about this a month ago.

Brian: He did have an edge because of Jace:

During the opening night of Peach Jam, Nightrydas Elite played against Jace — Howard's other son — and the Mac Irvin Fire, a prominent team from Chicago. Because his son was playing, Howard was allowed to sit courtside even though the July evaluation period hadn't begun.

Wesley had assumed that Howard was watching Nightrydas Elite to scout Scottie Barnes, a five-star recruit who played at University School with Jace and Jett. As it turns out, the more Howard watched Nightrydas Elite, the more he became interested in Todd.

Peach Jam, according to Wesley, was where everything started to fall into place.

"That’s where he made the connection and started communicating with Isaiah and Isaiah’s mom," Wesley said.

Bryan: This was in a Hoops Recruitin' less than six weeks ago:

Brian: Score one for "Kentucky can't take them all."

Ace: That’s also a thing about Howard that isn’t going to change. He’s Basketball Kevin Bacon. Dude knows everyone, and everyone likes him.

Bryan: *Offer not valid in East Lansing

Brian: Yeah, bringing in the superb dude with 20 years of NBA experience and four kids who went/are going through AAU turns out to be a good move.

Ace: Basketball Dad 2.0

Bryan: So, I think what we're saying is that Howard is probably going to have the raw materials to shock the world.

Brian: At this point in Michigan's program it's more like Mildly Surprise The World.

Seth: Todd is a proof of concept. We hypothesized that knowing everybody in basketball would be an edge, but yielding results this early suggests it might even be a program cornerstone.

Brian: LeBron and Dwyane Wade shouting you out is helpful.

Ace: Yeah, we’ll see how the class finishes, but it’s hard for Howard to have personally gotten off to a better start. (Wording that awkwardly to acknowledge Zeb.)

As the GIF guy, I’m very excited for the implications of just having Todd on the team, too.

Seth: Ah yes, the fact that he's a basketball player who will play basketball. I had not fully considered this.

Bryan: If there are any transition costs from moving to a Beilein system to a Howard system, having a pterodactyl with a Dirk fadeaway in his arsenal should help.

Ace: Those were very intriguing.

Brian: So Todd has legs, Michigan gets Jace and Dickinson and adds a 2/3 from Christopher, Springer, Burnett, and Moody, and then that class joins up with Franz/Livers/Castleton next year. Sounds like a plan.

David: Hopefully/maybe/probably DDJ.

Ace: Zeb, too.

Seth: Is Franz around next year? And yeah, Johns could be a Player a year from now. I mean, the other thing Howard's supposed to be good at is big development.

Brian: and then 2021 is the ***YEAR OF CHET***

I DEMAND CHET

Ace: [SUNDAY SUNDAY SUNDAY VOICE]
CHET HOLMGREN

Seth: /slides in head first, as Chets must do.

Brian: I want the skinniest guy in every recruiting class. Caris, Castleton, Bajema: it's a plan.

Seth: The Gaunt Five.

Ace: 

High schooler Chet Holmgren really did cook Steph with his own move ?

(via @Ballislife) pic.twitter.com/CZTWR7wd1i

— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) August 7, 2019

CHET CHET CHET

Seth: Scraggly Cinco.

Brian: I think we're done here.

Bryan: Once players have their NIL rights, they'll just have an annual sponsorship with Maize and Blue Deli.

Ace: CHET HOLMGREN

Also, Michigan’s gonna be good.

Bryan: Secretary: [pounding her clipboard]

CHET. CHET. CHET.