Unverified Voracity Spins Wildly
Now it's time to talk about football. Here are Nico Collins draft comps from PFF:
Do not look up target counts for Boykin, Malone, and Metcalf.
A new defense. Richard Johnson is in 538 talking with Maurice Linguist about what's going on with the Michigan D:
There are, broadly speaking, two spectrums that defenses can fall: too simple or too complex. With coverages, Michigan was certainly more of the former, especially early in Brown’s tenure, as the team played man-to-man defense almost exclusively. Though his tendencies eventually became more balanced, Michigan remained one of the most man-heavy teams in college football. Even as Brown tweaked his squad’s identity, its play only got worse. So as is often the case when you get beat up on one end of the spectrum, Michigan could flip to the other.
Is it worth building an inflexible defense made to shut out the Michigan States at the expense of being ill-equipped to respond to what Ohio State can throw at you? That’s the existential question facing the Wolverines.
“They had a system down that they felt strong about and playing a lot more man-oriented, and that’s definitely going to be a part of what we do,” Linguist said. “But there’s layers to having a great defense and just the perspective that we’re going to be bringing in. You don’t have to just live in one thing to be successful.”
The kind of things they're importing from the NFL are going to be difficult for college players, period, and it is likely to be particularly rough in year one. I wonder if they'll have the time to actually get something going. Warde Manuel is almost certainly going to be in a difficult spot next offseason.
[After THE JUMP: as the portal turns]
Draft bits. Franz Wagner is still projected in the lottery by just about everyone. Mike Schmitz on his situation after the tournament:
Wagner's signature performance against Scottie Barnes in the Sweet 16 and the consistent two-way versatility and toughness he showed over the course of the tournament has earned him legitimate looks in a top 10 that lacks much clarity after 5. …
He went for 15 points and 7 rebounds in a win over LSU and Cameron Thomas, defending multiple positions, making heady reads and attacking the rim with physicality. He outdueled fellow lottery pick Scottie Barnes and Florida State to the tune of 13 points, 10 rebounds, 5 assists and 0 turnovers as the catalyst of a 20-point win. He had no shortage of signature performances against Big Ten foes during the regular season.
With a 6-11 wingspan, a high motor and excellent technique, Wagner has proven to be a highly impactful defender both on and off the ball and there's little to suggest that won't continue in the NBA.
Shooting is a swing skill but Schmitz doesn't get too caught up in one very bad game that (presumably) ended his Michigan career. Other mocks have Wagner 9th (SI), 13th (SBNation), 16th (Yahoo). SI:
…he fits a range of key criteria for an eventual starting-caliber NBA wing, and still has a good chance of landing in the lottery. It’s clear at this point that he’s naturally more of a connector who fills in lineups than an offensive focal point, and he’ll need to become a more consistent three-point shooter and spot-up threat to enhance his value. He’s a competent, smart team defender who plays both ends. But Wagner’s size, basketball IQ, and all-around contributions coupled with the fact he’s the same age as a lot of freshmen bodes well for his future.
Livers sneaks into the SI mock at #59, FWIW.
Entries and exits around the league. Big Ten basketball personnel shifts:
- Ayo Dosunmu entered the draft with no possibility of return. He's projected as a late first-rounder.
- Illinois picked up Florida transfer Omar Payne, which may foreshadow Kofi Cockburn's departure. Payne was a top 50 recruit but got stuck behind Colin Castleton last year.
- Indiana got a major boost by landing Pitt transfer Xavier Johnson. Johnson had the #4 assist rate in the country last year and gets to the free throw line a bunch but he's a career 43/34 shooter with some turnover issues. Still a major upgrade from last year's PG spot.
- Also in Indiana, Jordan Geronimo, Kristian Lander, Parker Stewart and Race Thompson withdrew their names from the portal. Trayce Jackson-Davis announced a return as well. Al Durham committed to Providence; Armaan Franklin is still on the fence.
- Maryland landed Rhode Island PG Fatts Russell and Georgetown C Qudus Wahab. This means their roster will not be 100% wings next year, unfortunately. Russell is a career 41/28 shooter who got saddled with a ton of usage on bad teams; he'll probably be pretty useful. Wahab was a capable BE big and should be a major upgrade for them.
- MSU picked up Northeastern PG Tyson Walker and said goodbye to Rocket Watts.
- ~All of Minnesota is in the portal and they're bringing in various guys not worth talking about because that team is going to be hideously bad.
- OSU is trading defensive specialist Musah Jallow for defensive specialist Jamari Wheeler. Ok.
- Poor Damn Aaron Wheeler has escaped the cursed Big Ten for St John's.
- Rutgers has Myles Johnson, Montez Mathis and Jacob Young in the portal, which is probably survivable since Omoruyi is another awesome defensive C and Young is looking at a COVID year.
Speaking of Jacob Young…
Jacob Young? Sam broached Young as a guy Michigan was looking at in the portal this morning on WTKA and asked my opinion. My opinion was "pass", more or less. Young has a reputation as a defender that looks unwarranted:
Despite his tendency to filch perimeter passes for pick sixes, Rutgers is significantly worse at two-point D and their TOs forced actually drop. I think you can see the effects of his gambling in the OREB rate, as well, as Young puts Rutgers in help rotations frequently.
Young did have a major positive impact on the Rutgers offense since his shooting improved dramatically (44/25 –> 50/37) but he doesn't get to the line much and his assist rate is about on par with his still-too-high turnover rate. Assuming that Brooks is back I'd rather ride with him and Frankie Collins at PG.
Craig brought up Toledo PG Marreon Jackson as an option and I like that idea a lot more. Jackson shot 47/35 from the floor with a huge volume of 3s (247 attempts in 30 games), over a third of those unassisted. He's a 90% foul shooter and had a top 50 assist rate. It's not too hard to see him arrive in Ann Arbor, reduce his usage significantly, and end up a lethal perimeter guy who can run the offense. We know there are connections between the two programs; if they do hit the portal I'd rather have a guy with an established top-end skill like Jackson than Young's much more wobbly improvement—sample size is a thing.
Hockey needs a new assistant. Kris Mayotte is now Colorado College's head coach:
“I am honored and humbled to become the next head coach at Colorado College and continue the historic tradition of Tiger Hockey” - Kris Mayotte, new head hockey coach at Colorado College.https://t.co/FEI4YUZsHq#CCTigers | #NCAAHockey | #NCHCHockey pic.twitter.com/kfjtyeDYBj
— CC Hockey (@CC_Hockey1) April 7, 2021
That's quite a move for a 38-year-old.
Michigan will now have to fill that slot. Pearson inherited Brian Wiseman but seemingly moved him out for Mayotte after a year; Bill Muckalt has been Pearson's right hand man since he initially took the job. Program alums will naturally get a look. Jeff Tambellini is the head coach and GM of a BCHL team but may be redundant since Muckalt has a ton of Western Canada ties. I'm not aware of other former players in prominent junior roles.
Then again, Michigan went off the board last time with Mayotte.
Etc.: How about those muons? Papi Le Batard profiled in the Athletic. Jared Greenspan on the unceremonious departure of Isaiah Livers. The portal also hitting hockey hard.
Marreon Jackson just transferred to Arizona State.
Craig needs to stop making predictions..
Mike Smith I think will definitely be back..
Gone same day.
I really think they will kick the tired on Jackson from Toledo..
I googled his name an hour after the segment and his twitter said he was announcing his transfer in like 2 hours.
Tambellini actually left Trail before last season. He works in the Tampa Bay Lightning front office. If he had stayed in coaching, I would have figured on him to get a look, but as you mentioned, you'd have two Western Canada guys. Not sure if he's still interested in the coaching path or is on the front office track now, like his dad.
Komisarek applied for the job that ended up going to Mayotte and would bring connections in the northeast like Mayotte had.
Or, yeah, it's not like they won't have options and Mel proved he doesn't need a guy with Michigan connections.
Colin Castleton mention!
and "stuck behind Castleton" doesn't bode well for that guy (No offense to Castleton)
Castleton had a really good NCAA tournament (the only time I watched Florida basketball all year).
I didn't either but Castleton was apparently their second leading scorer (although part of that was due to Kevontae Johnson not playing most of the season--I hope he can play next year).
The 5 minutes I saw of FL in the NCAAs was the end of the ORU game, and his hands of stone seem to have single-handedly cost them the game.
It seems like our experienced transfer guard options are starting to become slim. Wonder if we do actually go after a guy like Adam Miller or Jabri Abdur Rahim
Mgoblog - come for the fan-driven sports analysis, stay for the links to physics comics
I don't think people realize how significant this muon related discovery is. It FUNDAMENTALLY changes our understandings of the universe. It proves that the Standard Model is not quite accurate/complete. This is Theory of Relativity level stuff.
I don’t know about FUNDAMENTALLY. We’re not sure what’s amiss, so let’s not overstate the impact just yet. I think we can still get by with what we know for most applications in the meantime.
But contrary to how anti-intellectual Internet trolls deride these stories as “hurr durr what do they know”, science is always at its most exciting when these kinds of anomalies are discovered.
Scientific discoveries begin far more often with "That's funny ..." or "Wait, that can't be right?" than "Eureka!".
Feels like reigning Young in to fit our defensive system would not be difficult and would fix some of the issues you pointed out. Similar to reigning in Smith on offense, except probably easier since Young has played B1G experience. An increase that large in OREB% from a PG not being on the floor screams there may be other factors involved there. Not saying he couldn't be part of the culprit, but there's no way he's the entire issue there.
He could play 25 minutes at point and Collins could still get solid backup minutes or even more if he proves to be very good, and Brooks could be offball where he is much more effective.
There has been a lot of debate about Jacob Young in the UMHoops message boards and it is also split.
The reasons you'd like him on the team are that he's a true creator and facilitator on a team where only true freshmen have a chance to fill that role. He may only get to the rim a modest amount, but he's solid when he does get there. He's a pretty good facilitator and he's a good-at-tough-shots guy. His defense is probably a lot like Chaundee Brown's - fiesty, energetic, disruptive, and overrated.
I think getting Brooks back helps ease some of the roster construction next year but replacing Smith/Wagner with Collins/Jackson/Bufkin is going to put a ceiling on your ability to create good looks on offense.
Yeah I posted this in the Roundtable thread so I'll post it here too, but I'd prefer Young and Brooks over Brooks and Brown. Young has proven to be a quality player in terms of creating for others (23 AST rate last year) and himself (240 two's last year, 131 at the rim where he hit 60% despite only being assisted on 25% of those). Those numbers blow Brooks and Chaundee out of the water, plus Young hit 37% of his 3's on similar attempts to Brown and Brooks despite a harder shot quality (61% of his 3's were assisted compared to 97% for Brooks/Brown).
He has his warts, namely his aggressive/out of control nature leading to too many TO's and being out of place on defense. But being overly aggressive/out of place on defense isn't dissimilar to what we saw from Chaundee this past year. He brings the same high level of energy, had the 25th highest STL rate among high major players last year, and putting him on a better team with a reduced role and better coaching can fix a lot of those issues.
Next year's team has 0 proven ball handlers/creators. Jacob Young is that. He's also very effective in the P&R which has been a big part of Juwan's arsenal so far. Bringing in Young gives you a good floor if the young guards aren't ready but he isn't a star that would prevent the young guys from passing him. He brings solid defense, good scoring at the rim, good creation for others, and potential solid 3 point shooting as well. Brown brings solid defense and good 3 point shooting, but that's it. With next year's roster, gimme Young.
Seems like Mike Woodson did a good job recruiting current Indiana players. After the whole team joined the transfer portal, I was starting to wonder whether IU was going to be able to field a basketball squad next year.
Getting Jordan Geronimo, Kristian Lander, Parker Stewart, Race Thompson and Trayce Jackson-Davis all to come back is an impressive first act.
"Jackson shot 47/35 from the floor"
I freely admit to not knowing any of the finer points about basketball, but seems like a guy who shoots at a 134% clip might be good to have on the roster.
2pt%/3pt%
MULTIBALL!!
Re: the portal, I think that I may have missed something. Is Marcus Carr not even a possibility?
Read somewhere (don't recall) that Michigan isn't interested. Too bad because I don't see much difference between his situation at Minnesota and Mike Smith's at Columbia. And Minnesota Carr > Columbia Smith
The rumblings are that the NBA and Kentucky are the leaders for Carr. I haven't heard that Michigan isn't interested, just that it's very unlikely to happen and Michigan needs to look elsewhere.
“The kinds of things they are importing from the NFL are going to be difficult for college players, period, and it is likely to be particularly rough in year one.”
Why do this? There isn’t an easier way?
Many on here believe Michigan has talented players on defense. If that’s true, couldn’t Michigan find a defense they can grasp, execute normally, then go be great at with their talent?
Why does Michigan need a very difficult defense to beat the PSU/MSU/Wisconsin/bowl opponent of the schedule with the recruits they bring in?
Spare the Ohio St. talk. Let’s see Michigan beat an MSU team with a pulse or a bowl opponent that isn’t missing half the team before we fret about only being 11-1 with a blowout loss to OSU.
At this point in my life of BPONE I can only dream of an 11-1 season with a loss to OSU.
There's little evidence that the defense they're going to install is going to be too difficult for the players to comprehend in the fall. I'm sure they'll be some wrinkles but even in the article cited they note that they aren't throwing out everything Brown did. I do think we're seeing a team have to deal with a complete staff overhaul and the transition costs associated with that. But I swear this place latches onto a narrative and won't let go until it's ripped from its mouth.
I said when Brown was fired they likely needed to make the change but we'll find that top-10 defenses don't grow on trees. That's still the case, but for all the pain of last year they still finished 36th per SP+. A top 25 defense doesn't seem out of the realm of possibility next year, and I think the guys they have on staff will be smart enough to pick and choose what they can deploy and what they can't. But that requires giving time to everyone and not read too much into a couple of weeks of practice exercises two months after most of these guys came to the job.
This is a great point. That's a claim based on too little evidence. It has exactly as much support as 'We're importing all these great NFL ideas that the staff is comfortable with so #1 Defense baby!'
It might work. It might not. But I don't predict instant doom; and often a competent DC can make a positive change in a year. We'll see.
I was skeptical when they first brought in Fisch for the same reason. I had images of Charlie Weiss and his 'mastery of the X's and O's'. But Jedd was able to adapt. Hopefully McDonald will too.
And if the Locked On Wolverines podcast source is correct and other teams were reading our signals and Brown refused to change; we'll get an improvement just from that.
"If that’s true, couldn’t Michigan find a defense they can grasp, execute normally, then go be great at with their talent?"
You mean the Don Brown defense they just fired? I broke down two of those OSU games. When they were playing the basic Brown defense, the players knew what they were doing. They just couldn't cover guys--and man can be tough against teams that run the QB. Now when Brown changed to running some version of zone, that's when guys looked lost.
They've proven they could win 9 games with Brown on defense with their talent and the mediocre offense they run out there week in and week out. They could probably have won 10-11 with a good offense that actually protected them certain weeks. I don't think there's a defensive scheme with this talent, and just as importantly, this Head Coach, that can get them above that level.
The ideal defensive scheme is the one that stops the offense that it's playing. That will vary from week to week, depending on the offensive scheme and the talent of the offense's players. And against the very good teams, you're going to need to mix them up because, unless you confuse them, superior talent usually will react and will win out.
It would be great if we could coach these guys to play all the various formations and schemes that are needed to stop 11-12 different offenses, including the very talented ones.
Learning takes time and practice, especially learning things well enough to be able to read and react correctly in a split second. Any coach with a brain will realize this limitation on how much kids can learn and adapt. How well the coach adapts (and how talented the kids are) will determine how much success you have on the field. A coach should avoid asking players to do stuff in a game that they won't be successful at doing.
We will see how much they can cram in during this offseason.
"A coach should avoid asking players to do stuff in a game that they won't be successful at doing."
Then why does the offense keep doing things that aren't in a players wheelhouse?
Ugh... Nevermind.
"It would be great if we could coach these guys to play all the various formations and schemes that are needed to stop 11-12 different offenses, including the very talented ones."
This is completely unrealistic, especially at the college level. There is not enough practice time in the year, both in season and out of season to do this.
Don Brown's philosophy of "majoring" in something, having a system you hang your hat on is right. Man coverage wouldn't be my first choice for a variety of reasons (you always have to have great CBs--hence one reason for last year's debacle, and there are run game issues). And you need to have a change-up to your fastball, which is something Brown seemed to struggle with--and maybe it's hard to teach any zone if man is your base.
OSU was victimized by this last year as well. Their fast ball is single high cover 1. They play cover 3 out of it as a change-up. That worked great in 2019 with 4 NFL DBs. They sucked in 2020 because they couldn't effectively play cover 1 once they lost Arnette, Okudah and Fuller to the NFL, so they just ran cover 3 all year and Alabama had no problem destroying it.
OSU needs to develop a better plan when it doesn't have the horses to base in cover 1.
Don Brown had the same problem, with worse players.
I'm less excited about the prospect of Young because his recklessness doesn't always show up in the box score but puts his team at a disadvantage without a huge payoff. Like, even a couple of pick-six scores a game is likely negated by the open shots he gives up gambling. And honestly, I'm less worried next year about the defense as much as having someone who can help run a coherent offense, and for all the "good at bad shots" energy you get from Young I also think some of those bad shots are ones he forces himself into. So that's a long way of saying I'd rather take a flyer on Jackson because he'll likely play within himself a bit more.
As for the football defense, I'm actually somewhat optimistic that they'll have a coherent system come fall. Will it get burned sometimes? Absolutely. But so did Brown's defense. But there's talent on the roster and Craig's comments on the podcast (supported by Sam with respect to the safeties) is that the secondary seems solid, which means that the front 7 is likely getting used to the new terminology and tactics but, you hope, will get the broad strokes once they get familiar with it all. I mean, for all the talk about complex defensive schemes, it's still mostly football and these guys have seen schemes like this before. It'll be bumpy, but I think we're going to be surprised come to the fall.
i know we have last season as a (very discouraging) data point, but I can't understand why the expectation isn't that we'll be a decent defense. The talent includes Hill, Hutchinson, Ross as well as Hinton (and Smith if he plays) who's recruiting rankings at least suggest potential. I realize that the corners were, and may be, an issue, and we won't likely be elite, but I think we Spring and Fall practice the staff ought to be able to put a mid-level B10 unit.
Our perspective about football defense is skewed. Don Brown had the #2, #13, #16, #25, and #95 defenses in his 5 years at Michigan (source: sports-reference.com). Last year fell off a cliff, but we've otherwise gotten used to having a REALLY GOOD defense. When people say we'll have a bad defense next year, they think it'll be worse than last year and that there is zero talent on that side of the ball. I believe we'll have a top 40 defense - not quite as good as the first 4 of Brown's tenure, but better than last year. I'm not worried about the defense.
What I am concerned about, though, is that the offense will remain the same stagnant, slow, ill-conceived, run-oriented, save the clock fiasco we've come to associate with Jim MF'in Harbaugh. If that's the case, it doesn't matter what the defense looks like...
I'm with you on that, though for different reasons. Gattis is the guy on offense; and I like him. But his playcalling so far just seems erratic as hell, and often only at it's best when Harbaugh and Warinner were handling the run game.
The way I read our current situation is Linguist will somehow have to harness the power of the muon for us to have a good defense this year.
Armaan Franklin just transferred from Indiana to Virginia. Look for IU to bring in another transfer guard. There are good ones still in the transfer portal - Marcus Carr, Adam Miller to name a couple.
Armaan Franklin just transferred from Indiana to Virginia. Look for IU to bring in another transfer guard. There are good ones still in the transfer portal - Marcus Carr, Adam Miller to name a couple.
Now it's time to talk about football.HOORAY I AM SO EXCITED I CAN BARELY CONTAIN MYSELF PLEASE PASS THE PEPTO
Not sure where the chaundee optimism is coming from. Recent rumblings on the boards is that he is gone as well.
I mean...this is going to be GERG level bad on defense, huh?
I still remember in physics 240, Prof Milton brought up the muon lifespan thing almost in passing. I still am befuddled by that (I’ve watched enough YouTube to “get it” but I also don’t get it).
I’m going to show my kids this comic.
where else but mgoblog would I find a random muon comic?
oh yeah, and our offensive identity has been a mess ever after Rudock and Speight year one. So there, some sports opinion for the board
Fatts Russel - name winner
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