An Odd Spot For Expectations
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So.
Michigan is a one seed that everyone thinks is in for disappointment. ESPN raised the banners and gathered all of their talking heads; a total of 34 persons ventured Final Four picks. Exactly one included Michigan, and he's not exactly the most analytically inclined prognosticator available:
I think I'd rather have nobody pick Michigan.
To some extent this is an artifact of people's bracket selection fallacies. It is known that Final Fours do not have all one seeds. Historically the most common number of #1 seeds in the Final Four is one, with two close behind. Michigan, which has lost three of its last five and just lost the services of one of its most important players, is an easy way to avoid an unrealistically chalk Final Four. Whatever Michigan's shot is at… uh… also Indianapolis but later, it's higher than 1/34. The format does not allow for subtleties.
[After THE JUMP: what to be happy with]
This is somewhat vexing. I want to pick up the Nobody Believes In Us sword and cut a swath through the haters, as is any fan's reflexive impulse. But also… I don't necessarily disagree. I feel pretty good about the first weekend, and then all bets are off.
So here's a weird spot. Juwan Howard has massively overperformed expectations in year two.
“Nobody believed in us” is a lazy and overused motivational tactic in coaching where the lack of belief and adversity is usually invented out of thin air.
— Scott Bell (@sbell021) March 5, 2021
But to really appreciate U-M’s title, it’s fun to revisit where everyone expected it to finish ().https://t.co/tDkfeyfYoE pic.twitter.com/o9V8pH2IIo
He is the Big Ten coach of the year and a finalist for national coach of the year. By any measure this has been a successful season. Howard does not have overwhelming talent—they've got one mid-first round pick on the roster in Franz Wagner, but the backcourt isn't going to sniff the NBA. Livers and Brown may have fringe three-and-D roles. Depth is questionable; the center is a freshman and his backup has my vertical. This team of good but not overwhelming parts spent most of the year stuffing the Best Kenpom Conference Ever* into a trashcan, winning games by laughable margins. In the midst of this Howard went out and landed the #1 class in the country, and did so without relying exclusively on one-and-done types.
In the midst of doing that, expectations got reset. Gonzaga and Baylor spent much of the season as a clear top two, but people started talking about a triumvirate at the top of college basketball after the Ohio State win. That didn't last; Michigan skidded into a one seed down the stretch, and now there's this air of trepidation hanging over everything. I feel it too.
Michigan has the 1 next to their name on the bracket and is thus dealing with capital-E Expectations on one level even as the bulk of college basketball punditry is downplaying their chances. This could set Juwan Howard up with an undeserved tourney rep. Because of COVID he has no NCAA tournament resume. They are a one seed everyone is picking against. Despite that, if and when Michigan does go down short of the Final Four, a certain brand of commentator will start talking about how Michigan didn't get it done when it "counted."
I don't want to spend too much time with that since the Mike Valentis of the world will always have air time to fill and no talent to fill it with. I do think the following:
- Michigan is unlikely to get to the Final Four despite being a one-seed. Most systems that project the tourney based on predictive numbers have them in the 30-35% range, and most of those are ot accounting for the Livers injury.
- This season is already a success.
- Anything past a Sweet 16 appearance is gravy unless the bracket self-immolates again.
That sounds disappointing to the Michigan basketball fan of a month ago, who is busy posting the Adam Driver MORE gif in the midst of Michigan shellacking a Kenpom top 20 opponent. It sounds amazing to the Michigan basketball fan in November—hey, buddy, there's a vaccine now!
Expectations change, but they're way easier to ratchet up than ratchet down. I'm going into the tourney hoping Michigan can survive Livers's absence, but I'm not staring down Michigan's one-seed path and envisioning something free of bumps. Most likely a bear will emerge from the woods and eat them. That's okay. Happens to everyone, until it doesn't. Ask Tony Bennett.
*[Caveats apply because nonconference schedules were reduced.]
I told my buddies the same thing the other day. Make the Sweet 16 and everything after that is gravy. This team has been such a joy to follow over the past 5 months and as pathetic as it may sound, has been a bright spot in an otherwise dark time for a lot of people.
Thank you and good luck, boys!
Nothing pathetic about that. I’ve been drowning this year w COVID pts from work. Michigan BBall has given me so much joy in places where the rest of the world has not, I can’t even begin to describe it. It’s been one hell of a journey learning more about the team and Coach Howard.
Good God it's anything but pathetic to say this team was a bright spot in a shitty winter!
It's the gospel truth!
For me, as long as we don’t pull a Virginia I’ll be okay
Aren't they the reigning national champions?
And also the first 1 seed to over lose to a 16 seed.
He means the other Virginia. The Virginia you want to pull is different from the Virginia that loses to a 16 seed.
I agree that SW16 should be the goal, and everything past that is gravy, but I'd really like to see them make the E8. Love to see them finish in the top 10 in the tournament for the year. The Livers injury is just such a blow, but Brown could have explosive night to push them to a final 4.
Picked middle of pack B10 and unranked to start, with an injury to a top player/ senior leader right before tournament. It really is an amazing run of a season that we should all appreciate.
I'll tell you, I wasn't feeling great until I read two things that changed my perspective a bit:
- Florida State has played away from Tallahassee 9 times. They lost 5 of those games. Michigan is 8-2 away from Ann Arbor
- Even without Livers, we were literally 1 point away from beating a #2 seed literally just last Saturday. That was with Eli still on a bum ankle. We also have a week of practice now without the service of Livers.
The more I keep going back to those two things, the more I like our chances at an Elite 8. I was thinking a Final Four appearance was likely even just a few weeks ago but, given the current circumstances, I'll take an Elite 8 in year 2 of Coach Howard.
Go Blue!
As a GT fan, I am very confused about the fear over FSU. They are a team that tries to out-athlete and oversize you, sprinkled in with some very good 3 point shooting. But any time they run into a frontcourt with skill (or any team with extremely well-defined roles in general) they tend to commit a million turnovers and then lose.
If you have a couple bigs that can bang with them down low - and the fouls will be more football than basketball - you should be way less worried about FSU than, say, LSU or Bama. Also the ACC was very weak this year. I think Michigan matches up well to FSU, with the possible exception of point guard.
Touche. My partner went to GT, we had football and basketball season tickets when we were down in Atlanta and watched most games this season. Totally agree on FSU.
Interestingly enough, I think UConn has a legit chance to take down Bama.
Good luck to GT, we'll be cheering from here in Chicago. I have a feeling they are going to give Loyola and the Illini all they can handle!
Thanks for that, and it sounds like you made the right choice on the partner! GT probably got the single worst seeding/bracket result imo.
FSU is actually on a late season swoon even worse than Michigan's, and watching the ACC this year vs watching the B1G (minus Nebraska) feels a lot like the difference of watching high school vs. college.
I think the B1G is going to show very well in the tournament. Hope you're right about UConn
I actually am really interested to see what Nell can do with the women's team as well. She has them playing fantastic and they have a lot of Sr. leaders. I think the Lady Jackets could make some noise for sure!
I agree with this, I'm not all that impressed with FSU or Colorado so to me, the Elite 8 is the threshold short of which I'd be disappointed. And I think Michigan could put Franz on the PG and survive with their smaller guards on Walker and Polite.
And heck, if they made it there, I'd be disappointed losing to anyone but Bama (not particularly afraid of Texas and Uconn is good but still a 7 seed).
Yeah, the FSU fear seems based on "oh shit, those guys are huge" as much as actual basketball ability. Like, they're a good team but I've caught two of their games (one was the game against UNC in the ACC tournament and another was some random game during the regular season) and both times I was decidedly whelmed by them. They shoot well from 3 and they have athletes on the perimeter but they foul a ton and seem like exactly the type of team UM counter-attack well against.
March 17th, 2021 at 10:19 PM ^
I think it's because they're huge but they're also streaky.
FSU is a game that we could easily win by 20 or by 1 or lose by 20 because they shot the lights out and we couldn't recover.
No one would bat an eye at any of those results.
They would also have a week to prepare and that matters, I used to love Beilein teams on the weekend, it was the Thurs/Friday that gave me heartache. Too difficult to prepare for or scout.
That FSU game could realistically go so many different ways.
March 17th, 2021 at 10:20 PM ^
But...gotta get there first.
agree
I can see Elite 8, beyond that is completely dreaming, but hey dreaming can be a good thing.
NO ONE could have predicted this in year 2, the awesome thing about this team is the transfer players Brown and Smith turned out to actually be really good compared to past transfers (not counting Robinson who exceeded expectations)
this team gave us all something to look forward to for the last several months, thank you M Basketball!!!
no matter what our boys will be hanging a banner this coming fall, a GREAT accomplishment
I'm most worried about FSU, they look like a 2nd copy of IL, may be without the shooters and defense. A bit worried LSU may play inspired against up and knock us out early. We'll see what happens. I wish we had a good 3 point shooter who can play defense on the bench.
You mean Chaundee? Or Johns who is shooting over 40% from three and can guard two positions straight up and can switch 1-5 and hold up for a possession.
Johns has taken 14 3s this year. I think he's a good shooter, but it's not clear he does
I mean sure, its a small sample size but he's over 35% for his career. He's good enough that teams have to respect which is really what you need to make the offense work. If his defender doesn't feel comfortable helping off or feels he has to charge hard to contest the shot if he does it opens up opportunities. So in terms of keeping the offense functional Johns is a good enough shooter.
The thing that is going to cost Michigan offensively more than anything is the weakness Illinois exposed which is that if you don't have to double michigan doesn't have a perimeter player that can create his own shot consistently outside the offense. Livers doesn't really change that either and that's the worry from a matchup like FSU
Illinois without shooters is what, Giorgi Banashvili?
“Illinois without the shooters or defense”
So nothing alike then.
also this type of comparison should be know as the “Inverse Fred Jackson”
haha, well without the shooters and defense, that's an entirely different team!
"I wish we had a good 3 point shooter who can play defense on the bench."
you mean the guy shooting 40% from three and plus plus defender named Chaundee isn't good enough?
i also just noticed that Johns is shooting 43% from three...only only 14 attempts. Son, shoot the ball! I knew anecdotally that he is passing up too many threes only to try and drive (often turning it over) but wow, only about a half a three per game? Too low, too low.
March 18th, 2021 at 12:12 PM ^
Tim McCormick has seen a lot of both teams and he predicts St. Bonaventure over LSU.
I think the Livers injury has calmed expectations for a lot of people. We earned the 1 seed with him in the lineup; without him all season, we probably would have been more like a 3 or 4 seed. A team at that seed line isn't expected to make the Final Four, but it's possible if they get hot at the right time. I think that describes us now.
We've got to past the first weekend. Beyond that, whatever, it's been a great season.
A great season. So much fun to enjoy so far.
The good news is we get an easier path to the Final Four due to our actual seed. That should raise our chances as opposed to if we were a hot 4 seed like OK State.
March 17th, 2021 at 10:30 PM ^
Right. If we were anything but a 1 seed, we'd have to get past a 1 seed to make it to the Final Four. Alabama is good, but I don't think they are the 4th best team in the country. There seems to be a significant drop off after the Top 2 or 3 (I'm not entirely sold on Baylor).
Very good way of putting it.
(FWIW I don't think anybody expected this team with Livers to play well enough to get a 3 or a 4 seed before the season started).
March 17th, 2021 at 11:52 PM ^
"but it's possible if they get hot at the right time. I think that describes us now."
This is exactly what I've been thinking for the past 2+ weeks. Michigan has been in a slump and hasn't shot the ball or defended particularly well, at least not like they did prior. It just feels like this team has taken its share of lumps for quite some time and in the process has probably learned a lot. Juwan is too good of a coach to let teaching moments pass by. The upward trajectory could very well begin on Saturday.
Long story short, I would not be surprised if Michigan went on a rampage and made it back to the national championship game. Nor would I be surprised if Michigan won the whole thing. Yes it's wishful thinking based on the current state of affairs, but I will not underestimate Juwan Howard.
And BTW, Stephen A. Smith yelled that he had Michigan in his Final 4 on the Jay Bilas "bracket better than yours" show last night.
if they can get the shooting sorted out the defense will improve
this team plays so much harder when they have confidence in their shots falling, BOTH ends of the floor improve. REALLY hoping they can get some shots to fall early saturday and give them some confidence.
especially Johns, he is just tapping into what he can do and could be a HUGE lift to the team if he plays well this weekend/monday
Sweet 16 is obviously the goal at this point
One game at a time. I would argue Thirsty 32 is the immediate goal.
Brian,
Congratulations on your vertical.
Blue V.
(No relation to Dickie V)
Same. With hope.
Totally agree. We fans should keep in mind this season is already a success no matter what happens at the tournament.
Can't really blame them. Without Livers, this team is a question mark isn't it?
I picked them in my bracket because there's no entry fee, so you pick with your heart...but if I had to bet my house on Michigan to get to the Final Four? Unfortunately no i would not
Nobody should bet their house on any team making the Final Four. That's the Madness part.
I share the overall feeling of being considerably down from the season's high point (which I define for me as Livers' put back slam against Indiana), but I think this is too pessimistic. Alabama has lost games to Stanford and Western Kentucky. Florida State has lost to UCF and Notre Dame. Texas has lost twice to Texas Tech. No one is without flaws (including Michigan) and Michigan has the advantage of being in the #1 seed slot. If you had to bet Michigan vs the field of the other 17 teams in the region, probably take the field, but I think Michigan still has a good shot.
In the last two runs to the Final Four, Michigan has won games where they had 1.4% and 4.5% win probabilities. You need some serious luck, but I don't think Michigan has any less of a chance to get that luck than anyone else in the region has. I'm still excited and think setting the bar low is a bad call.
In what way did he set the bar low?
If you want to point out everyone's bad losses, you have to point out Michigan lost to Minnesota and MSU which are comparable to the teams you listed besides UCF.
Losing to a healthy Minny on the road wasn't really a bad loss. I think they may have even been ranked. It now looks bad because they collapsed after the injuries set in, but at that point they were beating everyone in the Barn.
Sparty is weird because they're so Jekyll/Hyde home to away.
The piece read to me like "it's still a great season, even if . . . "
Michigan is a #1 seed and the #2 team in Pomeroy's ratings. Why does this comment section feel like something on a Drake message board--just win a few games and the rest is gravy?
This team has earned the expectations thrust upon them. Why is that something to be feared? Embrace it and let's go!
March 17th, 2021 at 11:01 PM ^
Because two of our starters are injured and we actually have less depth than people like to think.
One starter is out.
Brooks may or may not be dealing with any effects from the ankle sprain but he's in the lineup and played well last weekend. If we're calling him injured, at this point in the season a lot of teams have injured guys.
This is hedging, but it’s also 100% accurate and the correct thing to do. I’m assuming most of the fan base is in the same place.
However, in the words of MJ, “Start with hope.”
Sweet 16: Satisfied. It doesn't take the shine off a great year.
Elite 8: Very happy. Further confirms the awesome coaching job by Coach Howard.
Final 4: Elated. A combination of luck and steady contributions by surprise players will be necessary to reach this level.
[My original post] Championship Game: Orgasmic. Win or lose
[My edited post based partially on comments below] Championship Game: Orgasmic with excitement at tipoff. One-in-a-lifetime orgasmic with a win. After the natural post-game disappointment, still extremely satiated after a loss.
Hot take, my only disagree here is with your win or lose. After losing to Nova and Louisville in the Championship Game, I'd likely rather lose in the Final Four than lose in the Championship Game. I don't know that I could handle losing that close for a third time in 8 years.
(But I do hear and appreciate your bigger point).
I get the point, but I still prefer to make the finals and get that experience, as shitty as it is if we lose. Interestingly, Michigan has made the Final Four 8 times. Other than the first one (1964), Michigan has made the finals every time. 1-6 record in championship games is rough...
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