Coaches' timeouts are worse. Basketball teams should get one, full stop.
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|3 weeks 6 days ago||I kind of feel bad for GRIII||
that he didnt leave last year. His stock is dropping and the longer he stays and doesn't turn "potential" into production, the more he'll be hurt. It's looking more and more like our better lineup is with Irvin in the game ahead of Robinson. He just has not improved his outside shot and seems to be more passive than ever. Really hope he turns it around not just for the team but himself.
|3 weeks 6 days ago||Nope||
and I think you could argue he's been better than Ennis in conference play. This kid is ballin!
|3 weeks 6 days ago||We already..||
...dropped a 77 bomb in Madison! When was the last time we won in those three towns in the same season? Loving this team.
|3 weeks 6 days ago||He's the only guy on the planet||
To be able to say that since he's the only one to have won at Pinnacle Bank Arena so far.
|5 weeks 4 days ago||True for engineering||
but undergrad biz school apps aren't done until sophomore year so that wouldn't have any bearing on initial acceptance into the school. Unless something has changed recently. Could always use the old trick (oft joked about but I don't know anyone that ever did it) and apply for the nursing school and transfer!
|5 weeks 4 days ago||37?||
Is the ACT scale not 36 anymore? Or are you just super genius blow the roof off smart?
|5 weeks 4 days ago||I think you're good||
Like everyone else has said, your resume looks outstanding and the only thing with some room for improvement is your ACT score.
Two things I haven't seen mentioned on here: Gender and Geographical quotas. I think you have both working in your favor. Females make up over 60% of college applicants and college graduates these days, but schools try to keep it somewhat even (I think Michigan is at 55/45). Basically, you have less male competition and that'll help you. I just realized I'm assuming you are a male based on your sports comments and engineering interests and I may be making a you-know-what of myself by assuming that. If you're a -female, it's a tougher road. Notice everyone on this board who knows someone with great scores that didn't get in is a female (I know it's anecdoatal, but trust me, it's not co-incidental).
As has been mentioned here as well, Michigan accepts a much higher number and % of out of state student than UNC (traditionally the toughest out of state public school that limits out of state attendees to 5-10% iirc). Michigan goes 25-30% out of state and I think that's growing. And you may have a geographical advantage. UM has geographical quotas and while Tennessee doesn't have a huge allotment due to lower population, I would imagine that fewer highly qualified applicants per capita come from that region than California and New York.
All in all, I bet you have a 75% of getting in provided your essay isn't garbage and it sounds like you're a well-written high schooler.
Good luck, and Go Blue!
|5 weeks 5 days ago||This is awesome||
I watched the entire thing thinking this was a highlight vid from the whole year. Didn't realize it was only the last 3 games! Amazing how many great plays he made. Loving this bball run.
|5 weeks 5 days ago||We wish||
Would have loved both Trey and THJ back but they would have been crazy. Insurance protects from injury but it doesn't pay a salary. Coming back would have cost them a lot of money in missed wages. You and I wouldn't pass that up.
|6 weeks 3 days ago||Wowww||
It's personal for you? So you know him personally and don't like him as a human?
And you're not criticizing him for anything technical but you don't like his offense because you don't understand the the technicalities of it?
This is a hilarious post.
|6 weeks 4 days ago||I've never understood...||
...this logic. Morris made a great decision. Do you really think that playing basketball as his full time job, with all the strength and conditioning and coaching that comes with being on an NBA team actually hurt Darius Morris?
Look, Beilein and his coaches staff are as good at developing players as college coaches can be while their guys are spending large portions of the day in class and studying, limited by NCAA practice time regulations.
If a guy can get drafted and he's confident he can get a contract, it's almost always in his best interest to go pro. Then he gets to make money an extra year of his career and have an extra year of full-time professional basketball practice which can only help in the long run. If he ends up not lasting long in the league, it's because he just wasn't good enough. People always look at these things in hindsight but it's really hard to have a long career in the NBA. Another year in college wouldn't have helped his development more than that year in the pros.
Of course, as fans we'd love our best players to all stay four years for completely selfish reasons. But if we care at all about the players we have to trust that they're making the best decisions for themselves.
|7 weeks 5 days ago||Well said||
Nailed it with the analysis. Going from solid if only average Burke and Hardaway to more Stauskas and Spike/Walton has hurt. I think Walton will become just as good on defense or better than Burke when he figures out his spots but Stauskas is going to be a killer on the perimeter probably his whole career. His feet are just made of cement. Guys blow by him, require help and there are too many plays for the offense to make.
|7 weeks 5 days ago||We will likely be favored||
Kenpom has us by a point in that game and as the poster reminds below, we've prevailed over Sparty at Crisler for a few years in a row now. There's a remote chance we win there. I'll take that bet.
|7 weeks 6 days ago||Ace||
Penn State is 105th on KenPom, Northwestern is 156th. Might want to correct that. PSU is quite a bit better.
|8 weeks 2 hours ago||It's extremely relevant||
It's one of the most relevant data points we have. The better analogy is valuing a stock. You can pore over financials all you want and analyze the revenue and profits of a company but you're only scratching the surface of the whole story.
Some of the best indicators of a company's future growth come from knowing the management team, being inside the board room, really understanding what the factors for success have been. This is why the best hedge funds and biggest mutual funds want access to the board room (and sometimes cross into the illegal side of information gathering).
There are also many different sucess factors for an offensive coordinator: how good are his position coaches, how much success is due to coaching vs. talent, what are the instiutional advantages he's had. We can look at a guys offensive performance but no one knows better than his coach how much he had to do with that success and how replaceable he is.
You wouldn't want to buy a stock if the CEO was dumping his shares, even if the company has been profitable and growing.
I think Nuss was a solid hire and tend to be right in line with the Mathlete's analysis. But you'd much rather the HC fight tooth and nail to keep a guy than think, eh, he's replaceable. That's why people care.
|8 weeks 3 days ago||So why trail and lock?||
If Michigan was switching that play (and I agree they were) why was Stauskas trailing and locking? If it's a switch, then Stauskas has to take Smith and at least put some effort into boxing out on the put back. He should only trail and lock if the plan is to fight through screens, right?
|2 years 14 weeks ago||Schedule is no worse than this year||
ALA and ND will be very tough games but our conference schedule doesn't look any worse than this year. All of our home games are against solid teams that would be much more worrisome on the road. We get MINN and PUR on the road. They both looked improved toward the end but should be the worst two on the sched. The toughest game in div play will be at NEB but all others look imminently winnable. Even if we lose at Ohio theres a good chance we'd win tiebreakers at 6-2 like Wisco this year. I like our sched.
|2 years 24 weeks ago||Major Disclaimer:||
If you read the NOTE re: the rankings, FO says that the early season rankings are based mostly on raw data, unadjusted for opponent and heavily weighting preseason projections (which were probably heavily favorable for M given that we were #5 in this stat last year. So this pretty much means nothing at this point.
That said, we have been efficient in a low number of plays as mentioned in the comments. And our overall point and yardage total against a very good ND defense was impressive. Let's just hope that fourth quarter in which we racked up all those yards wasn't a fluke.
|2 years 30 weeks ago||Pretty well actually||
They made two BCS bowls under Weis with two-loss teams that probably would have had more losses if they were in a good conference. The easier schedule allowed them to be in range to be picked by the BCS and they were because they are ND. Those are big payday's for an independent that doesn't need to share the money with a conference.
|2 years 30 weeks ago||Seems like they are trying to expand into new markets...||
...since they are poaching a Texas team. Clemson or FSU make more sense geographically and from a rivalry standpoint, but I would imagine they want to expand geographically by adding Missouri or one of the Oklahoma schools.
|2 years 31 weeks ago||Chunk is right||
We were favored in 2008. ND was coming off that horrific 3-9 season of their own and nobody could have imagined the disaster that was about to become of the 2008 UM team. Like he said, we lost a close game against a great Utah team (they weren't expected to go undefeated but were expected to be very good), and won against MIA (NTM). The wheels didnt really come off that season until after the UW game. And boy did they fly off.
|2 years 32 weeks ago||Notice that he said eight year not eight game...||
It has been eight years. Techinically seven games but duration of 8 years.
|2 years 32 weeks ago||I agree that his best-case and worst case are little tight...||
especially considering his single game analysis. It seems like he didn't really consider those predictions in his total record predictions. If we lost all the games he considers us a toss-up or likely loss then we'd be 5-7, which is entirely possible. But if we win all those he considers a toss-up or likely win, we'd win 10 or 11 games. It's unlikely but I agree with you that that's a plausible best case.
But I disagree that he's too pessimistic. I think he's probably too optimistic. The MSU is probably not a toss-up. They have to have the edge in that game at home. So I think his 7-5 is a more likely scenario than 8-4 (and that's what Vegas thinks about the odds too).
|2 years 32 weeks ago||I hope you're right||
No one could see them beating us four years in a row but the first three have happened. It's in the past. They will likely be favored at home to make it four in a row. I shudder at the the thought.
|2 years 33 weeks ago||People are overestimating the difficulty of 2012||
by only looking at those 4 brutal games. Sure, we'll probably be overwhelming underdogs in those 4 games but we could and probably should win 1 of them.
But the rest of the schedule is quite a bit easier than our easiest eight games this year. We should be favored in all of them and besides Iowa and MSU (both at home), there shouldn't be a game in which we aren't the heavy favorites.
So the difference is really just that we have ALA instead of SDSU (which I agree is a big difference) and that ND is on the road instead of home. The rest of the 2011 and 2012 schedules are the same in difficulty (same teams, same number of home and road).
So we could assume that an equivalent team would win one less game in 2012 than 2011. That's not that bad. If the team is a game better in 2012, which is reasonable to expect, we should win about the same number of games in 2011 and 2012 (7-8). Then watch out in 2013 when these recruiting classes start seeing the field.
|2 years 42 weeks ago||Just have to wait and see||
If the errors are due largely to coaching, then we'll see if the new staff does much better. My guess is the offense takes a small step back and the defense a sizable step forward, albeit just to the middle of the 1A pack. May not show up in the W/L since we were a "lucky" team last year. Anywhere from 6 to 8 wins is the reasonable expectation.
Some of the error is just pure chance so you'd have to hope for a regression to the mean there. But we've been hoping for that for a couple years.
|2 years 42 weeks ago||Actually, it's not wrong at all.||
First, there is plenty of variance in experience to be able to pick up correlation if it was there. You must not have read the post from a while back where he explains that he uses the depth charts from rivals (which are often just one or two players deep) so he's not using guys that dont see the field.
|2 years 42 weeks ago||Excellent Post||
I've been thinking about doing this analysis since you put out your initial post on experience, but I've been too lazy. Glad you got around to it. I've been in the camp that has been arguing that we need better players much more than we need to give the current guys time to develop (all the people claiming that the defense would be better next year with the young guys having another year of experience).
Like you, I would expect the defense to get up to at least the talent expectations next year with Mattison. Will be a couple years til the coaching and talent gets up to elite levels.
|2 years 42 weeks ago||He concludes that coaching is the missing variable||
The R-squared is 0.38 which basically means that 38% of the variation in defenses is due to talent level. That is likely the most significant factor but coaching is probably what accounts for much of the remaining variance (which the OP clearly states, it's just nearly impossible to quantify that).
Differences in weight rooms, facilities, etc. probably has very little to do with the variantian in defences. Those things are important mostly for the recruiting aspects, in that it makes it easier to land top talent. If you took a talented team with a stellar coach, they would be an elite defense with the CCRB as their weight room and Elbel for a practice field. I'm not saying those things don't matter, but it's probably a marginal effect, especially considering that most, if not all, Div 1A schools have suffient weight and practice facilities.
|2 years 45 weeks ago||Some bad moves for Dombo:||
Magglio has been a nice player but he was drastically overpaid. Giving Dontrelle Willis a big extension without ever pitching for the Tigers and coming off a 5+ ERA year in the national league was one of the worst contract signings I've ever seen. This isn't a free agent signing but the trade of Jurrjens for Renteria was indefensible. I was so mad at the time when he did that. Our shallow staff could really use another good young pitcher and Renteria was terrible in the AL for the Red Sox.
Dombo has drafted well becase the Tigers have been willing to sign Boras clients like Verlander and Porcello to big MLB contracts. The MLB draft operates more like an auction than a draft so I wouldn't give Dombo all the credit for drafting well. Illitch has just been willing to pay guys. For all the money the Tigs have spent the last 5 years, you have to say that Dombrowski has done a mediocre to poor job. Hugely underachieved since the 2006 series based on payroll.