well that's just, like, your opinion, man
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|1 day 4 hours ago||No||
those projections are based on individual game W-L likelihoods aggregated, which is the wrong way to do it, as noted. That table is not expected wins in a true probabalistic sense.
The conference loss expectation for them is, as noted, about 2-2.5. And for us it's about 1.5-2. The division is likely to come down to The Game, but there is a better chance of us entering with two fewer losses and thus already having won the division, than of us being two games back without a chance to win it. So depending on how much edge they have in that game, we still may be the favorites in the division, statistically. It's very close at this point.
And in the case that both teams go 8-1, it's not a given that they win the East. They would if they beat us and lose a different game, but we win if we beat them and lose a different game.
|3 days 12 hours ago||When your model is||
two touchdowns different than Vegas, you're model probably is...not good.
|5 days 7 hours ago||I'm sure||
everyone ranked ahead of him has been EXTREMELY productive in high scholl as well. He's a high four star. It's splitting hairs between him and anyone else ranked within 25-50 in either direction. If there has to be a reason to put them in some order for some reason and it ends up being less than perfect technique, fine. Everyone agrees he's a highly talented QB, so paired with Harbaugh, can't wait to see what he does.
|5 days 8 hours ago||The Andromeda||
galaxy is waaayyyyyy under-recruited and under-evaluated so our recruits from there can be assumed to be rated about a star maybe a star and half too low.
|1 week 1 day ago||Harbaugh gets totally up||
for making toast for breakfast. Of course he'll be up for it. But he doesn't play the game. I could see the team being a little meh for that game but at home that should still be plenty.
|1 week 2 days ago||At what point in a program are ratings||
calculated? or is it an average throughout? Blowout wouldn't have helped the second half, but Spartys mere presence in the game was a big negative compared to the previous year's second game.
|1 week 2 days ago||It should definitely||
be changed to the Saturday nearest NYD. Saturdays are for College Footbawwwww.
|1 week 2 days ago||Moral of the story:||
As always, if public transportation to busy sporting event is possible, and you don't need a vehicle in which to tailgate, take the public transport. Every time.
|1 week 2 days ago||But the previous||
point probably outweighs this. I'm not sure much can happen to UM before that game to get UM fans more excited than we are now (unless a few teams ranked ahead of us lose and we go in ranked #1 or #2), given we're ranked top five and are double digit favorites in every game before then.
So my money would definitely be on any Rutgers hope that exists now decreasing by a lot more than UM excitement increases by then. And that's not even to consider what happens if we are to stumble before that game (which is entirely and totally possible *reverse-jinx*).
|1 week 3 days ago||I was responding to a comment||
I was responding to a comment about Venice Beach weather.
|1 week 3 days ago||And you knew this||
by his superb towel waving from the bench?
|1 week 3 days ago||Might as well||
throw in 3 bpg while we're at it.
|1 week 3 days ago||I live in Venice Beach||
and yes, the weather is spectacular. Worth the sun tax baked into my crazy high rent.
|1 week 4 days ago||This is how home field advantage||
in the WS should be determined.
The league that gets home field needs to win two of these three:
1) Team W-L of WS participants
2) Total interleague wins
3) ASG win
This means the ASG still matters...but only 1/3 as much. It also means the relative league strength matters. And it also means the overall team W-L matters. None of these should be a sole determinant IMO, because:
1) Team W-L. The two leagues don't play each other enough to account for difference in leauge quality. If one league is MUCH stronger than the other (which was the case with the AL for a long time), then racking up a bunch of wins in an inferior league shouldn't be enough, and it's the reason it's never been the determinant in baseball.
2) Total interleague wins. If the NL has a better interleauge record but sends an 84 win wild card team to play a 100 win AL team, givng the home field to the NL based on a smallish sample of interleague games played by other teams doesn't make full sense.
3) ASG is as mentioned a nine inning game between a tiny fraction of players in each league. It's dumb that it is the sole determining factor now, but it's kind of cool that it matters. So just make it the tie breaker if the above two are split.
|1 week 6 days ago||Thank you for counseling||
Thank you for counseling addicts, btw. This is an honest question to someone with clearly more experience about this:
Is it the weed that is crippling their lives as much as our punishments that we impose on users? We put people in jail for doing it. We don't let people work who do it. But why and to what end? It's certainly not as destructive as alcohol, which is arbitrarily legal. Mitch is clearly an NBA level player, even on weed, so in his case, it's not the usage that is getting in the way of his livelihood, it's our imposed punishments for the usage.
|1 week 6 days ago||Has Les||
discovered the unique medicinal qualities of Tiger Stadium fescue?
|1 week 6 days ago||Soooo||
I'm guessing you like disc golf?
I love it when people with perfectly relevant, yet oddly random handles go off when their topic gets mentioned on the board. Good times.
Also, your seeing beer cans in the garbage is entirely inconclusive about the drug of choice. Given that weed is illegal, most people wouldn't light up on the course. They'll do it before leaving or in the car.
|1 week 6 days ago||I think you'd want to use the||
percentage from the Oral and/or Blood Test, which is 15.2%. Given that it is all illegals drugs but that marijuana is by far the most popular, the 13% you mentioned is probably a decent estimate. And given that this was a voluntary survey, it seems like people who are high would be more likely to opt out, even though it is anonymous. I wouldn't be surprised if the actual % is higher.
|2 weeks 1 day ago||Yep||
I stand corrected about Hemingway. My bias had me thinking he was drafted higher than 7th round and I thought he was still in the rotation at WR for the Chiefs. Clearly not so.
|2 weeks 1 day ago||IU definitely not||
Kentucky is the IU of the SEC.
|2 weeks 1 day ago||Some might||
They def weren't "good" in his last four years, but they won bowl games in three of them and went 8-5 in the other. So by my definition, I'd say they were still "decent". Other could disagree on that definition.
|2 weeks 1 day ago||I was merely responding||
to people talking about wanting Arkansas over ND which is totally insane. This is only about a two game series. There's no plans for anything beyond that right now.
Also, you're first two sentences about Kelly leaving for the NFL and who will want that job are the exact things many, many people say about Harbaugh and us. It's speculation. And it's mostly irrelevant to 2018 and 2019. Also, it's easier for ND to make the playoffs without a conf championship game. All they have to do is lose one or fewer games. Everyone else has to lose one or fewer and still win a conf champtionship.
|2 weeks 1 day ago||Argh!||
|2 weeks 1 day ago||2009 and 2010||
don't really count because both team had bad coaches and were generally horrible teams (counting Kelly's first transition year as a Wies season still). Kelly has ND towards the top of the cfball again and...Harbaugh. This is a classic rivalry with two excellent fiery coaches. Should be very fun.
|2 weeks 1 day ago||Correct me if I'm wrong||
but it looks like ESPN was pretty spot on with their outliers. Looks like 6 of 8 were correct and the miss with Koger was somewhat understandable given the position they ranked him for. The only whiff was Bell. Their skepticism of BWC, Booby, Ferrara, etc was spot on as well as their love for Hemingway.
|2 weeks 2 days ago||Yikes||
I didn't realize we had UW and VT in the same years. With a nine game conf schedule, that's brutal (assuming VT stays at least decent without Beamer, which certainly isn't a given, they could tank).
|2 weeks 2 days ago||And went to the BCS||
championship before that. They'll be a top 10 overall program until Kelly leaves or turns ancient.
Arkansas' best season in that time was 8-5 last year with a loss to Toledo and losing record overall in that time span.
|2 weeks 2 days ago||Seconded||
ND fans are very much like UM fans - well-educated, not completely drunk and obnoxious, knowledgeable...and arrogant. What people don't like about ND fans is the same as what people don't like about Michigan fans which is justified in both cases.
|2 weeks 2 days ago||Are you serious?||
There isn't a program in the country that wouldn't trade a series against Arkansas (low tier SEC team) for a series against ND, not only because ND is a much more appealing opponent (and rival in this case), but ND is a much better program right now. Usually you don't appear afraid for cancelling a mediocre program to play a very good program.
|2 weeks 3 days ago||Hope?||
There's more than hope. We're favored and should win.