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|12 hours 46 min ago||I respectfully disagree||
A talented, veteran team in a down conference should have had every expectation of competing for a conference title. I'm sure the players and coaches expected it more than anyone else. If that wasn't their legitimate goal this year, than there was something wrong. Dan Dakich predicted us to go to the final four before the season because his son was in every practice telling him how good DJ and Wagner and the rest of the team were. And we looked incredible in NYC early in the year. The mid-year slump was not a youth or talent issue.
You are correct that often individual guys with high ratings don't pan out (Swanigan certainly doesn't fall into this category though). There are no individual gaurantees. Kam Chatman was a bust, which happens. Some of our 4 stars have been merely average (Irvin) or worse (Donnal), which also happens. But if you have a rotation with six of the top eight guys as 4 stars - like we do - with 5 of them in the third or fourth year of the program, and you don't make the tournament because your players aren't competing hard, you've failed. You can miss on some guys, but you can't miss on all of them - which we didn't - so they better be playing hard and smart.
They weren't doing that for a good stretch in the middle of the season to the point where MAAR was openly questioning why guys weren't playing hard. Youth can be a legitimate excuse. But we aren't young and there was no excuse for an experienced team not playing hard. That's why people were right to complain. For a tenth year head coach to need to institute, in your words, a "change in culture" is somewhat alarming.
Credit to the coaches and players for finding the fire they needed to play the way they should these past six games. Very exciting to see them play up to their potential. I hope Walton is correct that they aren't done yet.
|1 day 4 hours ago||There is no doubt||
both our bigs present incredible matchup problems because they can shoot from the outside, which forces bigs to come out on them (and which they usually won't do like Purdue didn't in the first half). When the bigs do come out, DJ and Mo can both take it to the hole - Wagner masterfully so.
And this all opens things up for dribble drives or back cuts for everyone else. It's a beautiful offense - and runs great with our top 6 players all being very skilled offensive players (ecept maybe Irvin).
|1 day 5 hours ago||The criticism was valid at the time||
And had we continued on the path we were headed after the OSU game, which was straight for the NIT, it would have been a massive underachievement.
This team has way too much quality experience (two seniors and an old junior in the backcourt) and too much talent (two likely NBA players who were 4 stars in the frontcourt and the two seniors were 4 stars) to be playing in the NIT.
It is still an underachievement that we didn't compete for a conference title, because we're every bit as good as Wisconsin and Purdue, but we're now finally playing to our potential these last six games.
I'm not saying he should have been fired had we ended up in the NIT (and knock on wood, if we lose out, I don't know if we're a lock) and I don't agree with anyone who though that, but they were right to be upset that for a stretch, a senior led team wasn't playing hard or focused.
|1 day 5 hours ago||Austin Davis||
also redshirted, yes.
|1 day 5 hours ago||Kenpom effect is||
very slightly positive, essentially negligible though. We played Iowa for 71 possessions so the extent to which those 71 possessions look "better" in the eyes of the formula slightly outweighs the negative effect on the.62 possessions we played Maryland.
|1 day 11 hours ago||That game was brutal||
A10 didn't win over any B1G ten fans today
|1 day 13 hours ago||Not really||
He's shorter and wider than Boogie so isn't a shot blocker or as good of a defender as Boogie was. Much better shooter from FT and 3pt though.
So much closer to Jared Sullinger.
|2 days 2 hours ago||Annnnnnd||
Vegas has us favored by 1, some books by 1.5.
|2 days 3 hours ago||No reason not to try||
to plug some holes though.
|2 days 3 hours ago||Just when it was starting to get||
a little old and overused, you totally nailed it! On topic and truly 3-9. Nice work.
|2 days 3 hours ago||They're about dead even||
until 25 yards Gary pulls away.
|2 days 3 hours ago||Looks like||
this was a laptop playing the video while a phone filmed the laptop with a laundry basket behind it.
|2 days 3 hours ago||Yeah||
and it's a real shame we took those skilled jobs away so talented individuals could proceed to lift the entire (now) developed world out of poverty, dramatically extend life expectancy, and improve every aspect of well-being.
|2 days 4 hours ago||He might get more minutes||
in this one than usual if the Purdue bigs get our bigs in foul trouble and/or if Kline plays more than normal. Kline should be a good matchup for Duncan, and he could maybe sort of stay with Mathias.
|2 days 4 hours ago||I'm just disappointed||
Basil Smotherman is no longer with the team.
|2 days 4 hours ago||The line that has us favored by 1?||
Yeah, way too low. We're gonna win by double digits, easily.
|2 days 4 hours ago||Does Rutgers have any? Might||
Does Rutgers have any?
Might be a VERY long time before they catch Chicago.
|2 days 4 hours ago||Defensive rebounding||
is included in these defensive stats. You're right that it has been a big contributor to our defensive inconsistency (along with opponent 3pt percentage).
Definitley need to get the FTs under control, but I'm not worried about that. That is something we are VERY good at.
|2 days 9 hours ago||Wasn't it his ex-gf?||
Thought I read that. In which case, the girl didn't really do anything wrong. Kind if a dick move by her and the teammate, but would be a LOT less shitty than if they were actually supposed to be exclusive. Thought this was a case of a jealous ex-bf.
|2 days 10 hours ago||I'm glad you pointed out||
the offensive consistency. In any discussion about the teams "schizophrenic" nature this year, the narrative inevitibly devolves to "well, that's what happens when you're a jump shooting team that relies heavily on threes" when, in fact, the offense has been incredibly consistent. It'd be interesting to see an analysis on the variance of offensive efficiency from game-to-game. I bet we're near the top nationally for consistency. And it can be attributed to the balance. Since we don't rely heavily on one guy, but have six good offensive players, it's almost a given that 3-4 will have a good game, and 2-3 will have a meh to bad game and it'll come out good overall.
It's been our defense that is unusually inconsistent: excellent early in the year, abysmal starting with UCLA through Nebraska (aided by bad luck on threes), and then pretty good again. I'm not very worried about Minnesota (heavily ref aided) or Rutgers (I mean, it's 1 ppp in a game in which we rebounded pretty well - they just made more 3s and FTs than expected and those are mostly defense agnostic shots).
|2 days 12 hours ago||Didn't even realize we played||
them twice. Although it looks like they killed us at Purdue in the first game with Zak having a terrible game.
Was comparing the apples to apples games at Crisler where we actually have a chance.
|2 days 12 hours ago||They were still 3rd in the conference||
in 3pt shooting and were 50 percent against us last year. The crazy thing is that we won the game inside and on the glass (!?!?!). They only shot 37 percent from 2 and only rebounded 20 percent of their misses, which seems crazy given the size they were playing with last year, and that was the difference in the game. We only shot 5-20 from three!
We were oddly a very good defensive rebounding team last year at 2nd in the conference!!! Irvin and Donnal did a much better job of boxing out last year than DJ and Wagner do, it seems.
They are getting more scoring from the PG spot this year, but PJ didn't turn it over much and they actually turn the ball over more this year.
|2 days 13 hours ago||It is shockingly useful for me||
I thought it was dumb at first. Against Rutgers when #33 hit that 25 footer, I cocked an eyebrow and was like, ummmm, no way that guy is a 3pt shooter. Glanced at that metric, and sure enough, Ace confrimed that I could indeed be very mad about that one.
But I agree that I usually am also very mad about a good three point shooter making a three if he was left open. Like Walton leaving Keonig for the backbreaking 3 at Wisconsin or Duncan inexplicably leaving Loving for MAAR to defend two guys.
|2 days 13 hours ago||Who guarded Swanigan last year?||
We won this game at home with Donnal at the 5 and Irvin at the 4, which I think had Donnal and Doyle on Hammons/Haas and Irvin (!?!?!?!) on Swanigan. Swanigan had an efficient game, but Zak was outstanding last year to better him.
Looks like Purdue is starting a smaller lineup and featuring Swanigan at center more. Swanigan and Haas only play together for about 10 minutes a game this year. Will be interesting to see if Wagner starts out on Swanigan. He's upped his game since last year to, like you said, dominance. No matter who it is, it probably won't go well. Need to stay out of foul trouble there, and hope the threes aren't falling for Purdue.
|3 days 5 hours ago||Ricky Doyle||
dominated them two years ago, which is an eternity in college basketball. Almost an entirely different team. I do agree that they'd be an attractive 2 seed in our bracket. The PAC12 is terrible, Oregon's metrics aren't great, but I don't love how they're perimeter oriented. Seems like our guards really struggle to keep good guards in front of us and our defense breaks down from there. And if they can defend the perimeter, not great for us.
|3 days 5 hours ago||Right||
that was my first point. That on the far end of the distribution the gap between 1s and 2s tends to be much larger than any other seed line (except probably 15s and 16s, as well), because the 1s include the elite outliers.
|3 days 12 hours ago||Ah, that's right||
I stand corrected! I clearly wasn't paying attention to anything else going on in that tournament. Forgot they were a 15 seed. Point remains that 7/10s have a chance at a much easier opponent than the 2 seed.
|3 days 12 hours ago||1s vs 2s||
Since these teams sit at the far tail end of the distribution, the difference between 1s and 2s is the largest difference between any seed line, and it's easier for the committee to "seed" them correctly. So there is also less noise in the actual seeding as well as performance.
The other piece of this is that there is also generally a huge difference between 15s and 16s, such that a 16 has never won. They are often the outliers that got super lucky to win conf tournaments. 15s aren't typically nearly as bad and they've knocked off 2 seeds like 8 or 9 times (but have never advanced beyond that). So not only does a 7/10 seed typically have a much easier matchup with a 2 seed, they actually have a chance to play a 15 seed.
I didn't realize how low the advancement rate of an 8/9 is though, relatively. I'd be curious to know what the expected number of wins for each seed is because a lot of 8s have made the final four since if they beat the 1 seed, they get their path. UK in 2014, Butler in 2011, UNC and Wisconsin in 2000, etc.
Despite the high sweet 16 rate for 10s, no 10 seed has EVER made the final four and only two 7s have ever made it, which means more than twice as many 8s have made it than 7s and 10s combined. Small sample sizes at the point, but one could argue a 7/10 is better for sweet 16, but an 8/9 is better for a final four.
|3 days 12 hours ago||Every year since the field was||
expanded everyone is surprised how soft the bubble is. It is not super difficult to make it.
But yes, the ACC is absurdly deep this year. The mid-major heyday from a decade or so ago seems to be completely dead. There was a time when the MVC was getting 4-5 at-large bids!! And some major conferences were getting less than that. The big boys certainly reign supreme in college basketball these days with a team that far under .500 in league play to be on the bubble.
|3 days 15 hours ago||Yeah||
6 might be a stretch, but reasonable to expect at least a 7-seed if we win the next three.