no, YOU'RE off topic
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|18 hours 27 min ago||Totally depends||
A lot of it depends on the quickness of the big man being able to stay in front of a guard (tough to do) and recover into the paint quickly. Doyle may not have that athleticism. Great write up, Ace.
|1 day 16 hours ago||And beyond||
Now that I look beyond the next two games, there's some drastic differences between TeamRankings and kenpom. Team Rankings only gives us a 22% chance of beating OSU at home, which I think is way too low, given how well this team has played at home. Kenpom has us winning that game 41% of the time. Also TeamRankings only gives us a 19% chance @ILL and kenpom has mich winning that 32% of the time.
|1 day 16 hours ago||TeamRankings||
Thanks for sharing. I wasn't aware of TeamRankings. Cool site. Their win probabilities for us are significantly lower than Kenpom so those appear to be pessimistic projections. For instance they have MSU win prob at 15% and Iowa at 48%, whereas kenpom has us at 18% and 55% for those two games, respectively. It seems like they might be using betting markets which might be taking into account a big hit for the loss of Caris that kenpom ratings aren't able to factor in. Kenpom would have us at more like 20-25% of getting in.
Three games ago, I would have agreed that kenpom was overly optimistic, but coming off what's probably been our best three game stretch of the season without Caris, it looks like the development of the young guys might have offset that loss. Small sample size, but let's hope.
|1 day 21 hours ago||Bubble||
The bubble has been very soft since going to 68 teams. I think we don't realize how that's changed the bubble since we last had to worry about it. Anyone on here thinking 12-6 in the conference (plus a BTT win ) doesn't gaurantee us a spot, please join my poker game on Tuesdays. I would like to make some bets against you. We are very likely in at 11-7 in conference plus a win in the first round of the tournament. Big ten teams regularly get in at 9-9 and the overall conference strength isn't down much this year, there's just a lack of elite teams. Two bad losses in December are not likely to keep us out if we weather this brutal stretch to finish 11-7.
|2 days 14 hours ago||Recruiting||
Look, I agree Beilein does more with less than anyone save Bo Ryan, but the fact that he has less is on him. If college basketball teams were randomly assigned players or had to draft from a pool of players, Beilein might be the best of all of them, but his guys are his guys. The goal is to win games and recruiting stud players is part of winning, and Beilein just isn't able to do that like some other coaches. The four guys you mention are prob the top four (altough Izzo could be slipping a bit), then Bill Self, Beiheim and Donovan, and as much as I hate to say it, Bo Ryan are definitely ahead of him. Miller from Arizona is right up there too. Beilein is in that 10ish range. Other guys that do a lot with a little and have had similar success at lesser programs are Smart and Few.
|2 days 15 hours ago||No. Just no.||
All the responses so far are nailing this, but it cannot be stressed enough that it's NCAA over NIT every singe time. Every coach and player to a man will tell you this. Why do you think bubble teams go crazy when they get in the tourney? A bubble team will benefit far more from the experience of playing in that environment, on a neutral court, than by hosting another mediocre team at home the day after getting their hearts ripped out.
And to count on a first round NCAA loss or extended run in the NIT is crazy. With the new 68-team format, 4 teams essentially start the tournament with a NIT-like coin flip game. Then if you win that, you play a 5 or 6 seed which is very winnable. Each of the last two years a play-in team has gone to the sweet 16, which means they played four games! The expected number of games for a NCAA play-in team (about 2) is less than one game fewer than the expected number of games for a top-seeded NIT team (about 3). That extra home game is not even close to being more beneficial.
Is the NIT a silver lining for a young team that doesn't make it? Sure, it's better than nothing. But you always want the biggest dance.
|2 days 15 hours ago||Degree||
Lot of factors that are a personal preference, but since he's in-state, Michigan is pretty much a no brainer as the far better value. Might want to take the state money they've been contributing! Even for an out-of-stater paying nearly the same tuition, it's a close one in terms of education and long term benefits.
|2 days 15 hours ago||Degree||
For undergrad? That may be the case but not even close for MBA.
|1 week 14 hours ago||I think his ceiling is a lot||
I think his ceiling is a lot like senior Morgan. I completely agree that he's far more skilled offensively in the half court than freshman Morgan, which is why I think, like UMaD that he's closer to his ceiling, i.e. not going to improve as much as the typical freshman to senior arc.
Like UMaD, I'm skeptical he'll ever be as good as Morgan was defensively. They have similar height and length limitations, so to make up for lack of shot blocking and interior presence, he'll have to be a monster in help defense, rotating quickly to get in front of people. Morgan was as good at that as I've ever seen so it'd be unrealistic to expect Doyle to be that good, which means he may never be more than a defensive liability. He could develop more strength to keep bigs out of the lane on post-ups and rebounds, but like I said, he's an awful defensive rebounder right now, so I hope that's a fluke and that his boxing out gets better to the point where he's not just trying to cancel his man out but that he's actually able to go after some balls to gobble them up before other guys get there.
|1 week 1 day ago||Doyle||
The thing about Doyle I worry about is where the improvement is going to come from. He's very skilled and it shows as he's shooting 66% FG and has a very-low-for-a-freshman-big-man TO rate of 12%, but he's so limited by his athleticism that I worry he's already near his ceiling. He's a bafflingly awful defensive rebounder (worse rate than Spike and Irvin!!), and he's not a shot blocker and very likely never will be with his length and athleticism (lack thereof).
His ceiling is probably Jordan Morgan, which would be great, I love me some JMo, but I don't think he has the quickness to get in front of people to take charges and disrupt shots in lieu of shot blocking the way Morgan did. He'll learn to anticipate those things better and maybe will improve his passing from the post and FT shooting, but those might be the only areas he can improve. Learning his spots on defense will hopefully have a big effect. I guess I'm just longing for a shot-blocking defender that could finish off the pick and roll. Pretty much just those two skills: rim protector and close range finisher would be so perfect for Beilein's teams.
If we could frankenstein the three freshman bigs together: Doyle's finishing around the rim, Donnal's jump shooting and DJ Wilson's length and shotblocking, we'd have a star. Unfortunately, Kam was supposed to be able to do a lot of those things, but yeah, I think that disappointment has been covered enough. Hopeful for big strides over the summer. He can't be this bad at shooting and finishing, right? And hopefully, he's just taking longer to figure out his spots.
|38 weeks 3 days ago||Bingo||
These polls are barely more than page click bait. Add Nebraska to the Florida and Michigan rankings that are based on little more than large fan bases that will share the link and eat this stuff up. I hope we end up top 25 and I'm sure one of these teams will surprise but you're exactly right as to why these teams are in the rankings.
|43 weeks 4 days ago||Teams give up free points all the time||
when they foul to increase possessions at the end of games. there are cases when stopping the clock and likely changing possessions is worth the chance of extra points for the other team results in a better probabiltiy of victory than the alternative. the OP brings up a good point and this might not have been a bad time to deploy the strategy given how easily they were scoring.
|43 weeks 4 days ago||It may have been the correct strategy but...||
probably wouldn't have made more than a 5-10% difference in win probability either way. I was thinking similarly. It's a bit like letting a football team score deep in your territory with a minute left when you're tied so that you can get the ball back and try to tie it instead of have them run the clock out and have have a good chance at a field goal to end the game.
One major factor here is whether you can foul a guy off the ball without it being intentional and I think you are allowed in college bball. I'm not sure who was in the game at the time but if Johnson was in there at 44%, this probably would have been a strategy that marginally improved michigans win %, especially since it'd put one of their best rebounders on the line. My guess is Poythress was in the game for this very reason and that would mean there weren't any guys on the floor that were particulary bad at FTs.
I'm too lazy to do the probability calculations but for anyone wanting to give it a shot, the probability of oreb on a miss is not going to be anywhere near 63% for them. A FT is far easier to rebound for the defensive team than a regular shot because everyone is already in position with the defensive guys close to the basket boxing out. Of course, they're huge and they'd be going for a rebound so I'd put that at 25% (still much higher than the NCAA avg).
|43 weeks 4 days ago||Or the goal tend||
in the first half that was blatant. two extra points for them. I'm sure there were bad calls both ways but those really bad ones are always the ones that sting. Greg Anthony even wondered aloud why that isn't reviewable.
|43 weeks 4 days ago||Completely agree||
We do this often when we have fouls to give. We just kind of lazily foul them, happy to make them inbound the ball again. There's no point to it because we don't even pressure the inbounds pass. Go for the steal or save the foul in case you're in a position where you get beat on a drive and actually benefit from committing a foul on the floor.
|44 weeks 2 days ago||What does "in the zone" mean?||
I hoped you had compared our defensive efficiency when playing man-to-man vs. zone. That would be interesting. I'm not sure what to conclude from this, but it looks like you spent some time on it so thank you for that.
|50 weeks 3 days ago||I kind of feel bad for GRIII||
that he didnt leave last year. His stock is dropping and the longer he stays and doesn't turn "potential" into production, the more he'll be hurt. It's looking more and more like our better lineup is with Irvin in the game ahead of Robinson. He just has not improved his outside shot and seems to be more passive than ever. Really hope he turns it around not just for the team but himself.
|50 weeks 3 days ago||Nope||
and I think you could argue he's been better than Ennis in conference play. This kid is ballin!
|50 weeks 3 days ago||We already..||
...dropped a 77 bomb in Madison! When was the last time we won in those three towns in the same season? Loving this team.
|50 weeks 3 days ago||He's the only guy on the planet||
To be able to say that since he's the only one to have won at Pinnacle Bank Arena so far.
|52 weeks 22 hours ago||True for engineering||
but undergrad biz school apps aren't done until sophomore year so that wouldn't have any bearing on initial acceptance into the school. Unless something has changed recently. Could always use the old trick (oft joked about but I don't know anyone that ever did it) and apply for the nursing school and transfer!
|1 year 16 hours ago||37?||
Is the ACT scale not 36 anymore? Or are you just super genius blow the roof off smart?
|1 year 16 hours ago||I think you're good||
Like everyone else has said, your resume looks outstanding and the only thing with some room for improvement is your ACT score.
Two things I haven't seen mentioned on here: Gender and Geographical quotas. I think you have both working in your favor. Females make up over 60% of college applicants and college graduates these days, but schools try to keep it somewhat even (I think Michigan is at 55/45). Basically, you have less male competition and that'll help you. I just realized I'm assuming you are a male based on your sports comments and engineering interests and I may be making a you-know-what of myself by assuming that. If you're a -female, it's a tougher road. Notice everyone on this board who knows someone with great scores that didn't get in is a female (I know it's anecdoatal, but trust me, it's not co-incidental).
As has been mentioned here as well, Michigan accepts a much higher number and % of out of state student than UNC (traditionally the toughest out of state public school that limits out of state attendees to 5-10% iirc). Michigan goes 25-30% out of state and I think that's growing. And you may have a geographical advantage. UM has geographical quotas and while Tennessee doesn't have a huge allotment due to lower population, I would imagine that fewer highly qualified applicants per capita come from that region than California and New York.
All in all, I bet you have a 75% of getting in provided your essay isn't garbage and it sounds like you're a well-written high schooler.
Good luck, and Go Blue!
|1 year 1 day ago||This is awesome||
I watched the entire thing thinking this was a highlight vid from the whole year. Didn't realize it was only the last 3 games! Amazing how many great plays he made. Loving this bball run.
|1 year 1 day ago||We wish||
Would have loved both Trey and THJ back but they would have been crazy. Insurance protects from injury but it doesn't pay a salary. Coming back would have cost them a lot of money in missed wages. You and I wouldn't pass that up.
|1 year 6 days ago||Wowww||
It's personal for you? So you know him personally and don't like him as a human?
And you're not criticizing him for anything technical but you don't like his offense because you don't understand the the technicalities of it?
This is a hilarious post.
|1 year 1 week ago||I've never understood...||
...this logic. Morris made a great decision. Do you really think that playing basketball as his full time job, with all the strength and conditioning and coaching that comes with being on an NBA team actually hurt Darius Morris?
Look, Beilein and his coaches staff are as good at developing players as college coaches can be while their guys are spending large portions of the day in class and studying, limited by NCAA practice time regulations.
If a guy can get drafted and he's confident he can get a contract, it's almost always in his best interest to go pro. Then he gets to make money an extra year of his career and have an extra year of full-time professional basketball practice which can only help in the long run. If he ends up not lasting long in the league, it's because he just wasn't good enough. People always look at these things in hindsight but it's really hard to have a long career in the NBA. Another year in college wouldn't have helped his development more than that year in the pros.
Of course, as fans we'd love our best players to all stay four years for completely selfish reasons. But if we care at all about the players we have to trust that they're making the best decisions for themselves.
|1 year 2 weeks ago||Well said||
Nailed it with the analysis. Going from solid if only average Burke and Hardaway to more Stauskas and Spike/Walton has hurt. I think Walton will become just as good on defense or better than Burke when he figures out his spots but Stauskas is going to be a killer on the perimeter probably his whole career. His feet are just made of cement. Guys blow by him, require help and there are too many plays for the offense to make.
|1 year 2 weeks ago||We will likely be favored||
Kenpom has us by a point in that game and as the poster reminds below, we've prevailed over Sparty at Crisler for a few years in a row now. There's a remote chance we win there. I'll take that bet.
|1 year 2 weeks ago||Ace||
Penn State is 105th on KenPom, Northwestern is 156th. Might want to correct that. PSU is quite a bit better.