Member for

14 years 2 months
Points
38075.00

Recent Comments

Date Title Body
Mike Smith and Devonte Jones…

Mike Smith and Devonte Jones both up transferred and ended up being high quality Big Ten guards by the end of their year here, thanks to the staff (compare to Jaaron Simmons who had a similar pedigree but Beilein couldn't get him to a place where he was even playable - and I know the players have a lot to do with this but Juwans ability to turn mid-major guards into good Big Ten players is probably better than average).

Eli blossomed under Howard.

Zaiver Simpson had his best year offensively under Howard, getting all the way to 36% from three despite having never shot better than 30%.

Dug got significanly better over the course of the year.

Kobe obviously.

C'mon man.

Yeah, it would have been…

Yeah, it would have been nice to get him at All-American level which he could have been next year but we got him at all-conference level for a year which was a little better than Jordan Poole or DJ Wilson's final years.

Ugh, I'm just depressed that…

Ugh, I'm just annoyed that the season doesn't really start until Sept 30.  What a joke the first four games are.

Are you in your 90s?  We're…

Are you in your 90s?  Could probably happen now if anyone was motivated enough to drop a few tens of millions on it but it's probably not that valuable, so the cost-benefit isn't yet to the benefit side.

Wouldn't be that difficult with some resources.  The tech absolutely exists.  Would just need to train an algorithm with enough game data.

You realize it's a computer…

You realize it's a computer projection and the only defensive stats that are input is blocks and steals right?  Doesn't take into account horrific pick and roll defense.

It's not just people here that say he's defensive liability.  What do the NBA scouts say?  Why else would a 7'1 guy that good on offense not be getting any NBA interest?

I will say that he can probably be a decent college defender if surrounded by elite wing defenders such that can just patrol the paint like he was able to do as a freshman.  Kansas is a good fit for him.  I don't think he'll make them better defensively, and I bet they'll be better defensively when Udeh is on the floor (if he sticks around) but they should be an elite team (as they usually are) with Hunter.

How did we solve the youth…

The biggest problems last year IMO were thus:

- lack of creators off the dribble

- defense (pretty much all phases)

I don't think we've solved the first one unless Dug makes a major leap and/or Caleb Love figures it out in year four.  I'd say those are both longshots.

The defense should improve with Reed at center and Jett replaced by Burnett but we lose our strength on offense (Hunter posting up) such that it probably just offsets at best.

You think after losing two…

You think after losing two NBA first rounders and an All-American they'll be better?

How?

If the model thinks they're…

If the model thinks they're the best team, which is mostly based on recruiting, performance and retention the past four years, it doesn't really matter that they have a tough game at the end of the schedule. 

All the best teams have tough games on their schedules.  And they can lose that game and clearly still get in.  So then again, it's the team the model thinks will be best that will be favored.

I think FPI does take into account returning QBs but the other top teams are also replacing QBs: UGA and Bama.

No.  No, it is not the…

No.  No, it is not the predicted outcome.  That's purely probabilisitic.  And they would have to have have greater than 50% chance for that to be, probabilistically, the predicted outcome.

You may call them the "favorites" if you define the favorite as the team with the highest chance of winning.  I still wouldn't say they are favored to win though.  Because the field is favored over them.  But that gets a bit into semantics.

Them winning is not the predicted outcome though.  There is no confusion about those semantics.

As a constantly tweaked…

It is by definition an unbiased statistical model.  It's literally the least biased college football content on ESPN (along with SP+ which are somewhat redundant). The only human input is recruiting rankings but that's because those have proven to be quite predictive.

The hot take articles and talking heads are for clicks.  And of course FPI is for clicks because all content hopes to get clicks but it's not meant to produce crazy results.  It's quite boring in fact.  It follows closely with recruiting rankings and past performance (with some element of returning starters and some other factors).

Last year wasn't grossly…

Last year wasn't grossly inaccurate.  It was actually very accurate.

It predicted that Bama, UGA and OSU would be the best teams.  And they were the best teams, give or a take a Michigan which they thought would be the 7th best team so they weren't far off.

Outcomes have a bit of noise, so Alabama lost two games by four points combined on the road to top ten teams and hence were eliminated from the playoff but they were a top 3 team.

Similarly, just because TCU won a bunch of lucky games doesn't mean they were actually that good.  Hence the complete joke of a national title game. 

What do you mean that be…

What do you mean that be different? In what respect?

If Papa Kante ends up…

If Papa Kante ends up enrolling, I highly doubt we add another center.  Hunter's replacement is sophomore Tarris Reed and the backup will likely just be some combo of Tray Jackson and Kante.  Which should be fine as long as Reed can stay out of foul trouble enough to play 30 min a game.

Wisconsin fans were upset…

Wisconsin fans were upset but what sure did look like a stomp this year: https://twitter.com/Outkick/status/1630915794652782593?s=20

And there bad been a few instances of elbows as well.

So yeah, he is viewed as a dirty player (although these are IMO minor, but he's def viewed that way) in addition to the trash talk and ski masks and stuff.

I don't think players that…

I don't think players that leave early for the pros - especially when they've made a good decision - lose out.  Trey Burke, Moe Wagner, etc etc will always be beloved in Ann Arbor and could come back to heroes welcomes and be as involved as they wanted to be even though they left early.

But yeah, if you're just gonna go play for another school...that's more of a bridge burned.

Yes, and they also get…

Yes, and they also get smoked in college as he does.

OP said he (or she) hated…

OP said he (or she) hated Kansas and this would give them another reason to hate them.  Seems like you'd have to dislike Hunter to hate them more with him on their team.  Net hate added.

Because on flip side if one liked Hunter, one might view an addition of Hunter as decreasing ones hate for the team that added him (the Astros adding Verlander, for example).

So yeah, I guess I don't know why we'd hate Kansas more for adding Hunter if we don't hate Hunter.  Maybe just jealousy?  Like, we're hoping to get him back but damn Kansas for making a run at him?  I guess I can see that.  I just view his departure as a done deal so I don't begrudge anyone for getting him. 

And in the case of Kansas, I almost feel like if they get him it'll be a little bit of a haha, good luck with that frustration (although he would be best off on an elite team that can protect his weaknesses, like Michigan was able to do his freshman season by surrounding him with NBA wings).

Got it, just wanted to make…

Got it, just wanted to make sure I'm doing it right.

Honestly, I kind of already didn't like him so now I don't also have to root for him to play well.  I think I've heard other similar sentiments.  Like ok, now I don't have to feel conflicted about Hunter Dickinson.

Do we hate Hunter now?

I…

Do we hate Hunter now?

I appreciate what he did here and appreciate his effort.  Maybe because I don't think it's nearly as big a loss as it would seem on the surface, I'm more ambivalent about him leaving.

I'm curious to see how he'll impact another team.  He was atrocious on defense.  There is a reason he's not on NBA radars despite being a really good offensive player.  I don't think he's going to help another team as much as one would expect from "the most accomplished player ever in the transfer portal" (which I wouldn't argue with, per se), so I'm interested in seeing that hypothesis tested.

Would I welcome him back?  Sure, he's a net positive player.  Am I kind of ready for the post Hunter era?  Also yes.

I didn't watch much of the…

I didn't watch much of the hockey game but sounds like it went much like the football semi.  Too many mistakes maximally punished / "pick-sixes"

Jackson should keep…

Jackson should keep Tschetter off the court.  Another wing would probably be needed to keep Twill off the court unless Burnett plays the majority of minutes at the three which is possible given his length as Matt outlines here. 

we don't fast break because…

we don't fast break because we don't create turnovers (#351!!!) and the rest of the big ten doesn't go for OREBs so there are almost no opportunities off boards.

but yeah, if we can up the steals which these guys should be able to do, then we'll fast break more.

I think we'll probably have to crash the OREBs a bit more too.  Trade off being that we'll get run on more.

Burnett shot 46% from two…

Burnett shot 46% from two last year.  Curious about where you're seeing 20s to 30s.

2 shots a night was on less than half the minutes.  His usage was almost 20% so pretty similar to Matthews in that regard.

I do agree Matthews was a solid creator and Burnett does not appear to be.

Yeah, the offense is going…

Yeah, the offense is going to be a major question mark.

Love can "create" questionable shots for himself, ditto for Dug.  But there's really no one on the roster that's shown he can create good shots for himself or others.

I think Juwan's offensive coaching has been excellent though.  Surprisingly, the staffs strong suit.  So it'll be a test to see whether they can scheme some guys open.

Their best offense might end up being Love or Dug jacking up meh shots and Burnett/Reed/PF crashing the boards. 

 

Surprisingly, Juwan has not…

Surprisingly, Juwan has not had a team that was better on defense than offense. Other than his 2021-22 team which was much better on offense and pretty bad on defense, his teams have been very balanced.

Agree that with guys like Nimari Burnett and Tarris Reed, it should be a defense first team.  Should be interesting.  I just fear that Love is going to jack up 25 shots a game, 20 of which are horrible.  But Juwan has been really good on the offensive end so maybe he'll be smarter with shot selection.

I assume you're getting…

I assume you're getting negged because to suggest he's only slightly more successful that Scott Frost is completely absurd.  He has an elite 8 and a sweet 16 and only once failed to reach at least the sweet 16.

Has he even had a losing record in big ten play in any season?

Does this entitle him to NBA…

Does this entitle him to NBA feedback though?  Who would waste their time?  Can I declare for the draft and get free NBA draft analysis?

Is anyone actually going to…

Is anyone actually going to be waste their time giving him feedback though?  He's not going to be invited to the combine.  I can't imagine scouts showing up to a workout.  He should have plenty of people in his circle giving him feedback already.  It's not rocket science to know what he needs to work on.

none of my post had anything…

none of my post had anything to do with bike riding, it had to do with lanes on roads and their impact.

your "real life" scenario is good for you.  you have an anecdotal experience (that you didn't even measure) and think is represents the "real life".

The data is real life.  And it's logical when you think about the consequences of adding or removing lanes. The flow of traffic does not remain constant.  It adjusts in response and keeps commute times effectively the same.  The effect is that traffic flow changes and keeps commute times the same.  Time after time.  Study after study.  Cause and effect is very clear here.  Seems counter-intutive but you're failing to consider how people react to street changes and what the alternatives are.

They do have a different…

They do have a different coach.  Turgeon is gone so I could see there being less bad blood now.  Most of his ire was directed towards Turgeon I thought.

Jett is addition by…

Jett is addition by subtraction.  Hunter is a loss but not as much as his hype would indicate, especially if Reed makes a sophomore leap.

Kobe would be the huge loss.  Burnett isn't going to replace him adequately.

Dug and Reed are going to be…

Dug and Reed are going to be good next year.  But yeah, if Kobe is gone (and in all likelihood, he is) this is going to a be a team that struggles.  They'll be better than Ellerbe level though.

Ehhh, he was very salty all…

Ehhh, he was very salty all year long about Terrence Shannon not being admitted.  He cares who he's playing with.

Hopefully because his NIL…

Hopefully because his NIL money here was all redirected to bringing Kobe back.

My mom, who lives in Ann…

My mom, who lives in Ann Arbor, as an example, can't ride a bike; she had a stroke recently. She needs a vehicle to travel anywhere, as does her husband. 

And have her commute times increased?  Has she clocked it out?  Of course she needs to drive and she can!  No is asking everyone to ride a bike, that's absurd.  No one is even asking her to increase her commute times and it almost certainly hasn't happened because it usually doesn't as the mountains of data support.

You're right not all the residents said they haven't noticed a difference in commute times or traffic.  The one exception was Basking in Glory.  But count them up, it's pretty lopsided.  I did.

Neighborhood density is irrelevant (and also comparing to AA many years ago is irrelevant) to my point.  It was about the lifestyle and desires of the cities residence and all the services available and Duluth =/= Ann Arbor but ok, it also is not rural.  I stand corrected.

New to politics?

Nope.  Politicians usually do what will get them re-elected.  It's a very effective system we have, this democratic republic.

giving up one's freedom for online ordering is actually superior

Ha, huh?  You're usually a reasonable poster but that's a curious interpretation. I'm saying having the option is absolutely superior.

You were simply waxing on about what you personally like about grocery shopping and projected those likes on this hypothetical person.  I love grocery shopping too but most people don't and benefit greatly from grocery delivery, parents especially, single parents even moreso, because it's brutal trying to take kids through a grocery store (part of the reason I like it is the "break" but when I'm solo parenting? Awful.  Much better to order). 

And again, the option for grocery delivery is what's amazing.  You don't have to, but to the original point, if you can't go to the store as was the hypothetical presented by XM, delivery is an option.  You have more freedom with the option.  People aren't tethered to and dependent upon their automobiles as they once needed to be.

I appreciate that you once…

Multiple lanes do carry more traffic, yes, and as such they do not reduce commute times is the point. Because with the added cars any reduction in commute times gets quickly eliminated as more cars choose that route and travel method.  Study after study of commute/travel times show this.  Same in reverse.

To your point about necking down I-75.  Might initially slow things down but will quickly return to the previous pace as people take alternate routes, choose different travel times, etc.  That might be considered inconvenient, but the travel times don't change.

I live on the westside of LA and the city took Venice Blvd down a lane to add a bike lane a couple years ago.  There was a lot of initial pushpack and a campaign to oust the city councilman in the area.  Then it was implemented and everyone realized, oh, yeah, no impact.  It's a big city with lots of streets so I can Waze the optimal route and literally my commute time has not changed.  Doesn't matter that you take Washington instead of Venice. No one complains anymore.  And the data support that commute times didn't change so they're adding to it.

If you're making an argument that your anecdotal experiences disprove mountains of data...ok.  What's more likely happening is that when you have a smooth commute you attribute it to expanded lanes even if your average commute time didn't change or that after a road diet is implemented any traffic gets blamed on the bike lanes when there was always traffic. Our individual brains are very bad at processing information as vast as this and our experiences are not representative, which is why I trust the data on things like this.  Studies of actual commute times of a bunch of people.

I've read through this thread and there are many, many current residents here saying, huh, I haven't noticed a difference (and yes one resident that complained about it - Basking in the Glory) so anecdotally, it seems the feeling supports the data that, eh, no meaningful impact to the negative.

Yep, I was class of '04 and…

Yep, I was class of '04 and our undergrad class had about 5,000 students (and about 20k total).  I am shocked to read that it's now up to 32k total.  That is very different than 20 years ago.

I did my grad degree in…

I did my grad degree in Westwood at UCLA.  It's mostly a commuter school as most people choose to live in wider LA surrounds.  The traffic was absolutely miserable since everyone commuted.  And it doesn't have the charm of Ann Arbor for the reasons you mentioned.

Ann Arbor actually has really favorable traffic relative to its population density precisely because most people don't drive. 

I did my grad degree in…

I did my grad degree in Westwood at UCLA.  It's mostly a commuter school as most people choose to live in wider LA surrounds.  The traffic was absolutely miserable since everyone commuted.  And it doesn't have the charm of Ann Arbor for the reasons you mentioned.

Ann Arbor actually has really favorable traffic relative to its population density precisely because most people don't drive. 

It's no longer the case…

It's no longer the case because Ann Arbor is geographically MUCH larger

to engineer the city for the…

to engineer the city for the benefit of a few at the expense of the many

where is the evidence of this?  These are elected officials making these decisions, correct?  Presumably they are acting on behalf of the constituents that elected them and implementing initiatives that they campaigned on. Why shouldn't a city do the things its residents want?

I think you have it entirely backwards as evidenced by all the comments of people that actually live in Ann Arbor.

You and XM and (it seems) the other people complaining are out of towners and you don't even have the context to know whether it actually made a difference (study after study shows it doesn't make a difference to auto commute times).  But yes, if this is indeed wildly unpopular amongst the people that live there, they will elect people to change it back.

I think it's interesting that you and XM who each have a ton of kids and live in small rural areas, which is great, I love that for you guys, are projecting your desired lifestyles on the people of modern Ann Arbor.  You're totally correct that people live in areas that accommodate their preferred lifestyle.  Ann Arbor residents are choosing an urban design that suits the preferred lifestyles of the majority of them.

I'm not going to get into all your specific complaints about grocery delivery or ridesharing but I don't know many people that like grocery shopping.  Most are very happy to outsource that and it also frees up a lot of time to spend with ones kids, work to make more money, whatever. What do you even mean by not getting to walk through the aisle and wonder what birthday cake to make?  You can scroll through the often more abundant option on your ordering app.  You realize most delivery services are just personal shoppers shopping the same store you would right? Also, for the record, I love to cook and hence enjoy grocery shopping to pick out my produce and food, etc.  But almost no one that I know does this (I'm 40 with two kids) and I'm glad they don't so the streets are more clear for me.  Where I shop, there are as many Instacart or Prime "shopping" as regular citizen shoppers like me.

And yes, rideshares take time to arrive but they drop you off at the door so you don't have to look for parking or walk from a parking spot, etc.

Complaining about these conveniences is like complaining about the fact we don't make our own clothes anymore and have to buy what's on the rack.  Sure, you give up some flexibility but what you gain is liberating, tremendously time saving, and often economically advantageous.  But you can still make your own clothes if you want!

So, I'm not advocating anyone be forced to adopt these innovations.  The fact that many people do adopt them, enables those who don't to still drive their car around without any added commute time even with fewer lanes.  For the very small number of families with 4+ kids (I have two so my family can fit in regular sedans, etc), they can still do what they need to do!

this isn't a promotion of…

this isn't a promotion of bike lanes per se but reducing traffic lanes for bike lanes does not impact auto commute times as shown by study after study.  So complaining about them is just complaining for the sake of complaining without actual data on how the changes impact people (largely because the people that can commute alternatively do and then it's just as easy for people that have to drive and park to do so).  You are not being punished at all.

My comment was more in response to your suggestion that a mother can only get groceries by driving her own car and parking.  But that's not true in any modern urban area, Ann Arbor especially.

You live in very rural UP as I understand it, but there are a lot of very easy alternatives to car ownership in modern urban cities and they're cost neutral or even more affordable when people actually do the math and consider the true cost of car ownership.

Again, I have kids and reduced my car ownership after doing so.

Exactly, cars are looking…

Exactly, cars are looking for other cars when they pull out of alleys, parking garages, and driveways. Not looking for bikes speeding down a sidewalk.

My kids feel safer riding their bikes on sidewalks but I tell them to stay on the street where it's safer because cars are looking for them.   That's the why you can't build fences or structures right up to streets (but you can to sidewalks which makes for blind spots).

Interesting and not…

Interesting and not surprising.  Good data.  People like retail and pedestrian friendly areas.  It's calming.  They're happy to walk to get there.

Another related and relevant phenomenon is that study after study shows more lanes don't reduce time spent in traffic.  They simply encourage more cars on the road to fill the new lanes and time spent traveling remains static.  And apparently those added cars aren't even adding to increased retail patronage.

(FWIW, reducing the number of lanes also doesn't impact commute times after people adjust routes and travel method in response to any initial and slight uptick in travel time).

So there's really nothing to complain about here.

otoh maybe that's why they…

otoh maybe that's why they're grasping for anything to get excited about

Wasn't that also the…

Wasn't that also the offseason that Chris Beard left TT?  The fact the coach he originally committed to left and was replaced by a guy who would tell his players they should be more obedient like slaves probably also contributed to his departure.

Yeah, Mathews as a defensive…

Yeah, Mathews as a defensive guy without great outside shooting is probably the better comp than Chaundee who was a good outside shooter.  This guy probably isn't as good as Mathews defensively but anywhere near would be great.

with the money she'd save…

otoh, with the money she'd save not paying for a car payment, fuel, insurance, etc she could have her groceries delivered and rideshares when needed still probably have money left over

contrary to our usual consumerist culture of buy, buy, buy, less is often more

my family went from two cars to one when I started biking to work everyday and it was amazingly liberating.  a benefit of progress (rideshare, grocery delivery, etc) in urban areas is car ownership is once again, not really necessary and often a burden

granted going from two to one is easier than one to zero.  I did live with zero in chicago and it was great but that was before I had kids and with Chicago's excellent public transport.  It's tough with kids that need car seats (thanks regulators) but once they can go in and out of a rideshare or bus, there's really no limit.

I would also be in favor of offering need-based transportation credits (similar to food stamps) in urban areas that implement changes that make commuting more difficult for folks that can't afford to live near where they work.  Seems like a no brainer to help the single mom specifically instead of feeling like the whole city needs to be about accommodating her instead of the people that live there (if those needs and desires are at odds).

Not sure that this is the…

Not sure that this is the place for this discussion but I do miss having a more dedicated and knowledgable basketball writer. Especially since Brian isn't doing regular basketbullets anymore.

We used to get a lot better analysis, including the hoop lens data (which is understandably outside of the blogs control).

Matt D's contributions in-season are great, but there was only like one or two posts this season about the play of the current team. I don't really care that much for the recruiting stuff.  More interested in the analysis of the actual team and players that are playing and we have had a decreasing amount of that.

yes and yes.  I don't really…

yes and yes.  I don't really miss any of the stuff that's gone away in the last 25 years.  It feels sad that there's no longer a Mitch's slinging dollar pitchers on Mondays (and Wednesdays) but I wouldn't be doing that anymore and students must not have been doing it enough for it to close down.  So not a big loss apparently.  Similar sentiment about other things that haven't survived.

As long as I can still go to the jug on gamedays after a Michigan win, I'm happy (also enjoy darts at the blind pig friday before a game, breakfast at angelos or zingerman's, etc etc which is all still possible)

And I like a lot of the new stuff:

Frita Batitos is outstanding as is Spencer, Mani and others.