I'll get to analysis from the tourney run—later. For now, I'm ready to take stock of the roster and look at the many different possible ways it could shape up for next year. Let's start with next season's scholarship chart with zero projected departures, which I'll say right now isn't gonna happen, but it's a good jumping-off point.

Remember: every senior has the option to return because of the COVID year exemption. Juwan Howard says they're all welcome back. Michigan could technically carry 18 scholarship players because returning seniors won't count against the 13-scholarship limit next season. But again, this isn't gonna happen:

Michigan is right at the limit for 2021-22, though attrition is generally a guarantee. There's no way the team is going to carry 18 scholarship players; even if professional careers weren't under consideration, playing time would be. Today, I'm going to go through the upcoming decisions and how they'll impact the program's outlook for next season. Later this week, I'll toy around with potential rosters and lineup combinations.

[Hit THE JUMP for decisions, decisions, decisions.]

The Decisions

Wagner is a probable lottery pick [Campredon]

Listed in approximate order from least to most likely to return, based on the current vibes and available info, and broken into categories.

COME TO TERMS WITH THESE

Franz Wagner. There's been little to no buzz about Wagner possibly returning for a junior season. He's worked his way from a fringe first-round prospect into a potential top-ten pick (ESPN has him 8th, The Ringer 9th, and the lowest I've seen him is 18th on Sam Vecenie's latest big board). He's not an elite athlete with superstar upside, so that's likely as good as his draft stock is going to get. A return to school would be a very pleasant surprise.

Isaiah Livers. While his senior season didn't end the way anyone hoped, Livers seems prepared to move on to the next stage. He considered going to the NBA after last season, improved as a senior, and earned his degree. He's started in an NCAA title game. He's projected as a second-round pick and his recovery timeline shouldn't scare off NBA teams—he's got plenty on tape after four years playing against high-level competition. Given he spent the tournament wearing a #NotNCAAProperty shirt and lobbied Mark Emmert for NLI compensation, he seems done playing for just a scholarship.

LOOKING PLAUSIBLE

Austin Davis. Davis has been in Ann Arbor five years, will have two degrees, and would no longer be the primary backup center with five-star freshman Moussa Diabate expected to fill a healthy number of minutes in the frontcourt. That said, Big Country isn't putting off a pro basketball career, and there's always room for an experienced center on the bench. He's a Michigander who may have different incentives than the others in this section, including one that could pull him towards staying: if he wants to pursue coaching or another administrative position in basketball, staying close to Juwan Howard could be a wise plan.

Mike Smith. Based on the current message board rumors, it feels like one of the two starting guards is coming back, whether that be Smith or Eli Brooks. Those rumors have also swung over the last month to Brooks being the more likely returnee, though Smith still isn't being ruled out. Would Howard bring both guards back when two talented freshman guards, including a true point in Frankie Collins, arrive with ambitions of seeing the court and Zeb Jackson is looking to step into a bigger role? I'm not so sure. He won't want to stunt the development of his freshmen and there are only so many minutes available. Smith, meanwhile, has a lot of options between Columbia and Michigan degrees, a possible overseas career, and point guards often making good coaches.

FEELING GOOD EVEN THOUGH WE'LL NEVER USE THE TERM "LOCK" IN THE OFFSEASON

thunder back? [Campredon]

Chaundee Brown. TMI basketball insider Dotman indicated on their message board that Brown is eyeing a return, as did The Wolverine's latest Inside The Fort. That'd be a major boost to a team expected to lose a lot of scoring production on the wing and at least two of their top perimeter defenders. Brown could slot in as a starter or reprise his role as a sixth man (and likely get near starter-level minutes) depending on which players return, their development, and how ready the young guards are to play big roles.

Eli Brooks. The other senior Dotman has hinted is likely to return (again corroborated by The Wolverine), Brooks could start at either guard spot depending on team need and stabilize a backcourt that's otherwise projected to be very inexperienced. We've seen time and again how important Brooks' presence is to the team beyond simple box score contributions; having him on the court to help initiate the offense and keep the defense organized would put this team right back in contention for a one-seed, in my opinion.

Hunter Dickinson. Losing Dickinson appears unlikely. He isn't listed on the top 100 Big Boards for 2021 by Vecenie, ESPN, or NBADraftNet. While he's never going to be the modern NBA prototype, there's a lot he can do as a sophomore to improve his potential draft position, from adding a functional jumper to diversifying his post moves to making quicker reads against double-teams, to name a few on offense. The NBA's glut of cheap traditional centers and reticence to use them work in Michigan's favor, at least this year. Dickinson's decision will be tougher in 2022.

OTHERS? This certainly won't come back to bite me in the ass: this doesn't feel like an offseason where there's going to be much, if any, unexpected attrition. Brandon Johns started to break out towards the end of the season and will have a major role to play as a senior. Adrien Nunez, the only other upperclassman not listed above, seems very content to be a legitimate TikTok star and Bench Mob guy who'll have a Michigan degree in hand next year. The sophomores-to-be all got playing time and the only one not to receive some high-leverage minutes is the son of the head coach. While you never know with offseason attrition, the outlook is good.

The Portal? Crootin?

transfers were front and center during M's run this season [Campredon]

At this time last year, Mike Smith was merely a guard in the portal who'd reported contact from Michigan, which seemed more focused on landing Harvard transfer Bryce Aiken, who ended up at Seton Hall. Chaundee Brown's name started coming up in mid-May, around the same time Nojel Eastern briefly committed to Michigan as a transfer from Purdue, and didn't receive his waiver to play immediately until the end of October. Josh Christopher was ticketed for Ann Arbor until his mid-April turn to Arizona State, which came in tandem with the news that Isaiah Todd chose the G-League over his Michigan commitment.

So, yeah, a lot can change. This year's transfer portal is the most packed ever and several players on it are former Michigan targets, such as Khristian Lander (Indiana), Nimari Burnett (Texas Tech), and Noah Locke (Florida).

If two of the super seniors return, though, there'd have to be some unexpected attrition for Howard to need to turn to the portal. Again, he's got talented players coming in that he doesn't want to recruit over. If he's uncomfortable with Diabate as the lone backup center other than Johns, who's needed at the four, then maybe a grad transfer center is in the cards, though Michigan's lack of available minutes at the position means it'd probably be easier to convince Big Country to stay another year.

Grabbing a sit-out transfer also doesn't seem to make much sense with a six-man freshman class coming to campus and, for the moment, limited space to fill out the 2022 class. With Howard's recruiting acumen, it'd take just the right player coming available for him to add a transfer instead of a blue chip recruit.

Speaking of recruiting, Michigan is technically still in the mix for a few elite 2021 prospects, though that also doesn't look to be a likely route to adding players. Top-30 IMG Academy center Charles Bediako keeps pushing off a decision that has long expected to go in the favor of Alabama, though big-timers lurk, including Duke and Michigan. He's kept his recruitment quiet and could make an unexpected decision; this still feels like a long-shot unless Bediako is happy coming off the bench with little chance of starting barring injury. [4/6 UPDATE: Bediako just committed to Bama.]

Another IMG center, five-star Efton Reid, will announce his decision on April 15th. Michigan has been involved but his choice is rumored to be coming down to Ohio State, Pitt, and Virginia, according to to 247's Steve Helwagen. Finally, #1 overall prospect Chet Holmgren, the lanky 7'1 center from Minnesota, is looking more and more like a Gonzaga lock if he chooses the college route.

That about covers the bases. Later this week, I'll have a post analyzing the various roster and lineup possibilities, which have been quite enjoyable to think about.